2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[The Dog 43788]

2 hours ago, immamac said:

Donald trump isn't winning texas. 

I know I posted an article saying this, but it's not showing up in the polls and Trump is polling at or near 50% even in the UT-Tyler polls. They're going to have to be way off on their sampling methodology for that to happen. 

11 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Not partisan gerrymandering.

That's subjective and difficult to prove. Racial gerrymandering is much easier to argue. 

[Huckleberry 32694]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I know I posted an article saying this, but it's not showing up in the polls and Trump is polling at or near 50% even in the UT-Tyler polls. They're going to have to be way off on their sampling methodology for that to happen. 

That's subjective and difficult to prove. Racial gerrymandering is much easier to argue. 

It's very easy to prove in states where voters register by party.

[DigDug 1649]

2 hours ago, immamac said:

Donald trump isn't winning texas. 

I expect him to win this state convincingly. Seriously, 7 to 10 points.

 I do my own internal poll of interactions as I travel around, and the only thing we have in more abundance than dumbasses is hard headed arrogance.

[The Dog 43788]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

It's very easy to prove in states where voters register by party.

But not in Texas so this doesn't help here at all. Also, people can change registration.

At any rate, my point is that at least the most common form of gerrymandering is already outlawed.  

[The Dog 43788]

3 minutes ago, DigDug said:

I expect him to win this state convincingly. Seriously, 7 to 10 points.

No it's going to be closer than that IMHO. Like 2-4 points. I don't think he out performs Ted Cruz's results against O'Rourke.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13408]

12 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I know I posted an article saying this, but it's not showing up in the polls and Trump is polling at or near 50% even in the UT-Tyler polls. They're going to have to be way off on their sampling methodology for that to happen. 

That's subjective and difficult to prove. Racial gerrymandering is much easier to argue. 

There are many instances where 2 polls have very different results for the same state. They all normalize their results based on assumptions. If those assumptions are wrong, then their results are wrong. I agree that when a poll with a good track record or several polls show someone with >50%, its a strong chance that is the result. 

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

The ‘rona and losing personnel to campaign has left Kayleigh’s bench exposed.

 

[gmr548 16490]

 

Well yeah, you don't have money to buy TV ads when it's all been spent on bribes to people you need to help steal the election!
That's the only explanation! This is bad for Biden OMG OMG OMG PANIC!!!!!!!eleven!!!!

It just shows they're admitting they can't win an election outright and are focusing on ways to steal it

[Brisketexan 104549]

10 minutes ago, The Dog said:

No it's going to be closer than that IMHO. Like 2-4 points. I don't think he out performs Ted Cruz's results against O'Rourke.

Newest Tribune poll has Trump up 5 points in Texas, 50-45.  Sounds right to me.  Trump wins by 4-6.  Because we still have a fuckton of blind partisan GOP voters who are aginst soshulism!, and who are also just giant pieces of shit.

The reason that shitty, awful candidates from a shitty, awful party still win here.....is because a majority of Texas voters are still shitty, awful people.  Let's stop lying to ourselves to try to convince ourselves that people aren't that bad.  They are.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

I'm in the 1-3 camp because of outrageous voter turnout.

[The Dog 43788]

10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If those assumptions are wrong, then their results are wrong.

Yup. And that's the only thing I think is possible here. There are two things I think could end up proving the polls wrong:

1. That the vast majority of the 1.5 million newly registered voters vote for Biden (of those who actually show up)

2. They are under-sampling suburban areas that are flipping Democratic (similar to under-sampling blue collar whites in 2016)

But that's about it.

[BradInATX 9208]

I think Biden is going to win, or Trump is going to win by 5-6%, but I can't figure out which one. 

Either there is going to be massive turnout and the weightings the polls are giving for demographics are going to be way off and Biden is going to pull off a stunner, or Trump is going to cruise to a 6% win, which lines up with him being about 3-5% ahead of Hillary.

If I were a gambling man, which I am, I'd bet on Trump +6%. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by BradInATX

[Huckleberry 32694]

27 minutes ago, The Dog said:

But not in Texas so this doesn't help here at all. Also, people can change registration.

At any rate, my point is that at least the most common form of gerrymandering is already outlawed.  

That's an even sillier statement. Partisan gerrymandering is the most common form. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Yup. And that's the only thing I think is possible here. There are two things I think could end up proving the polls wrong:

1. That the vast majority of the 1.5 million newly registered voters vote for Biden (of those who actually show up)

2. They are under-sampling suburban areas that are flipping Democratic (similar to under-sampling blue collar whites in 2016)

But that's about it.

1.5 million new voters at 50% turnout is 750,000.  Trump won Texas in 2016 by 800,000. If those go 2-1 Biden, that leaves 500,000 left to catch up. That's a pretty big number, imo, but not impossible.

[The Dog 43788]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

That's an even sillier statement. Partisan gerrymandering is the most common form. 

OK I was wrong - always thought it was race-based. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13408]

17 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

The ‘rona and losing personnel to campaign has left Kayleigh’s bench exposed.

 

The WH or the campaign will never tell the public the president's testing schedule, and more importantly, they will refuse to release future negative tests. Trump being "released" by his doc this saturday for campaign events is only because Trump ordered him to do so. There is zero science behind this. Its doubtful Trump will even allow a test this week as that can be nothing but negative.

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

OK I was wrong - always thought it was race-based. 

I think you’re both right. Partisan gerrymandering is simply a fig lead to reduce impact of minority votes

[Huckleberry 32694]

Well they use race as a proxy (it's why the current gerrymandered maps are failing them as college educated whites leave the GOP in droves) but it's always about winning elections. All gerrymandering is partisan gerrymandering. 

[gmr548 16490]

Donald trump isn't winning texas. 

Stahp

[Herpa Derpa 6110]

10 hours ago, thepop said:

One thing to note regarding these numbers is that there are always folks that plan to vote on Election Day and then don't for one reason or another.  What that percentage is I have no idea, but even if it's just 1-2%, that can mean the difference in a toss-up state when a campaign needs every vote they can get.  Hillary lost Michigan by 0.23% and one can point to the campaign's failure to adequately GOTV of solid D voters as the reason.  The need for absolute turnout on election day diminishes when you can get most of your voters to do their duty prior to that day.  This graph indicates to me that Trump has cornered himself into needing every single supporter who plans on voting on November 3rd to do so.  And those that plan on voting on a specific day may find something interferes with the plan.  Like, I don't know, them or a close relative being in the hospital with COVID.  Might be nothing.  Might be a crucial footnote to explain a resulting landslide in the EC.

On a personal note, I will be dropping off my unsolicited ballot today.  Nothing was going to stop me from voting this cycle, but knowing I got my ballot in a way that makes the Donald apoplectic is the perfect lagniappe for the whole endeavor.  

[Neonmoon 38127]

Trump absolutely did not comply with the 72 hour protocols for the debate. 

The Biden campaign shouldn't debate Trump again, they're just risking everyone's life who shows to the debate. 

Edited October 9, 2020 by Neonmoon

[Reynolds Woodcock 4659]

56 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

The ‘rona and losing personnel to campaign has left Kayleigh’s bench exposed.

 

Fuck. I’m ashamed to say I worked with this guy right out of law school. Drank with him a time or two. He was kind of a scumbag and a hack even then (everyone laughed at him behind his back for his CNN appearances), but just sad and disgusting what happens to people when they go inside the circus tent.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

Texas is probably a long shot this cycle, let's focus on the gotta haves.  Some recent reputable polls.

 

[Red Five 40629]

Does anyone else find it amazing that Trump is trying to have Joe Biden arrested, during the election, and it's not really much of a news story? 

[Brisketexan 104549]

Just now, Red Five said:

Does anyone else find it amazing that Trump is trying to have Joe Biden arrested, during the election, and it's not really much of a news story? 

Because 1) people are numb to this shit, and 2) they presume it's more impotent rantings (DO SOMETHING!)

If he DOES have Biden arrested --- there can and will be violent resistance.  That's a complete upending of any semblance of a functioning democratic republic.  It's dictator 101 shit.

[Rimbo 25766]

8 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Does anyone else find it amazing that Trump is trying to have Joe Biden arrested, during the election, and it's not really much of a news story? 

It's only on the front page of the New York Times. Who reads that?

[horn4life 3755]

I was wondering about how fucking dumb the GOP has been in Texas and immediately the name Gohmert jumped into my mind.  Do you know Rick Perry appointed that fucking moron to the Texas 12th District Court of Appeals back in 2003?  

Anyhow it was just my quick stupidity barometer, of what level of stupidity is embraced by the GOP.

As far as Texas turning blue I would probably use the fact that the President is tweeting about Texas and "winning" is about as good evidence as any of us can get that it very well may be in close play from the the Republican side.  They fact that even Joe Biden is tossing a few million at Texas is good evidence that the Dems think it may do enough good to swing perhaps not the Presidential race but maybe a down ballot race or two. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

You guys are not factoring in how pathetic Texas voter turnout was until 2018. Thanks to the insane orange Cheeto of course. 
 

That and we’re the fastest growing state in the nation the last two years and it’s not because a bunch of trump loving bumpkin dumbasses started moving here. 
 

AUSTIN — Wearing a red-white-and-blue blouse with a sticker declaring “I’m so gonna vote,” Kassie Phebillo sits behind a table here at the University of Texas, dispensing information about the Nov. 6 midterm election. Nearby, scores of students line up to cast their ballots on the opening day of early voting. 

The display of political energy contrasts with Texas’ long record of lackluster voter turnout. In the last midterm election in 2014, Texas’ 28.9 percent turnout was less than 1 percentage point higher than dead-last Indiana’s, according to the United States Elections Project, which estimates voter turnout based on reports from state election offices.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/10/30/heres-why-texas-voter-turnout-was-so-low-and-why-its-surging-now%3famp=1

 

Like Jack told Wendy after she locked him in the large pantry. “You got a big surprise coming!!”

 

Edited October 9, 2020 by JimmyJames

[JimmyJames 12271]

Oh yeah and the olds hate trump now since he’s trying to kill them. And Texas has plenty of olds who vote. 

['stache 21751]

So if he gets a stimulus package passed and then loses the election will the checks still have that fat fucks signature on them?

[Horn Dog 9671]

2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Like Jack told Wendy after she locked him in the large pantry. “You got a big surprise coming!!”

 

Wait I remember that skin flick.  Was that Peter in Pam?

[bluto 4883]

You guys are not factoring in how pathetic Texas voter turnout was until 2018. Thanks to the insane orange Cheeto of course. 
 

That and we’re the fastest growing state in the nation the last two years and it’s not because a bunch of trump loving bumpkin dumbasses started moving here. 
 

AUSTIN — Wearing a red-white-and-blue blouse with a sticker declaring “I’m so gonna vote,” Kassie Phebillo sits behind a table here at the University of Texas, dispensing information about the Nov. 6 midterm election. Nearby, scores of students line up to cast their ballots on the opening day of early voting. 

The display of political energy contrasts with Texas’ long record of lackluster voter turnout. In the last midterm election in 2014, Texas’ 28.9 percent turnout was less than 1 percentage point higher than dead-last Indiana’s, according to the United States Elections Project, which estimates voter turnout based on reports from state election offices.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/10/30/heres-why-texas-voter-turnout-was-so-low-and-why-its-surging-now%3famp=1

 

Like Jack told Wendy after she locked him in the large pantry. “You got a big surprise coming!!”

 

According to exit polls in 18, “Trump loving bumpkin” transplants were a major reason for Cruz victory. The whole “it’s all libtard Californians moving here” spouted by R’s isn’t accurate, there’s a shit load of ppl moving here to ‘escape’ their liberal hellscapes so they’re called.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Just now, bluto said:

According to exit polls in 18, “Trump loving bumpkin” transplants were a major reason for Cruz victory. The whole “it’s all libtard Californians moving here” spouted by R’s isn’t accurate, there’s a shit load of ppl moving here to ‘escape’ their liberal hellscapes so they’re called.

Are you saying that exit polls ask people if they recently moved here? Genuinely curious about that. Never heard that. Got a cite or link for that? 

[Mo Horn 8807]

The tweet about this should be interesting

[Guest Lobo]

The entire party line in the White House today is media and democrats are looking backwards at trump’s last negative test and who he was around last week.  They’re attacking that and claiming the President is also concerned with looking forward.  
 

It took me awhile, but now I realize why we suck at contact tracing. This administration doesn’t even understand where on the timeline past, present, and future you conduct contact tracing.  
 

Trump is the Wayne Gretzky of Covid-19 patients.  He doesn’t trace the virus back to when he got it, he traces the virus to when it’s going to be.  

[JimmyJames 12271]

7 minutes ago, bluto said:

According to exit polls in 18, “Trump loving bumpkin” transplants were a major reason for Cruz victory. The whole “it’s all libtard Californians moving here” spouted by R’s isn’t accurate, there’s a shit load of ppl moving here to ‘escape’ their liberal hellscapes so they’re called.

NBC exit poll on beto V Cruz:   How long have you lived in Texas?
Less than 10 years (10%)	Not enough data

[Francisco 2.0 32317]

16 minutes ago, 'stache said:

So if he gets a stimulus package passed and then loses the election will the checks still have that fat fucks signature on them?

Well, yeah.

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

Here the link if anyone cares.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tx
 

Interestingly enough, if you were actually BORN in Texas, like me, you supported Hillary more than a trump in 2016 by a wide margin. It was all the assholes who moved her 10-20 years ago who gave trump the victory. 
 

So fuck all y’all! Get a rope! 

[Dahobbs 17434]

Texas flips due to high dem and independent  turnout and suppressed Trump turnout. That's my shot. 

But, I'm also keeping my reservation on Brisket's ledge. 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5342]

22 minutes ago, 'stache said:

So if he gets a stimulus package passed and then loses the election will the checks still have that fat fucks signature on them?

Unless they reach a deal yesterday and somehow fast-track it through a covid ridden senate, it's unlikely people would receive checks before November 3rd. 

[Pato del Muerto 52338]

If both parties are paying attention to Texas, it’s within the MOE. Biden does not need Texas, but it would be quite a blow to Trump and the gop to win it, and to have that talking point for the next 2 years (4? Is there a senate race in ‘22?)

[JimmyJames 12271]

14 minutes ago, bluto said:

According to exit polls in 18, “Trump loving bumpkin” transplants were a major reason for Cruz victory. The whole “it’s all libtard Californians moving here” spouted by R’s isn’t accurate, there’s a shit load of ppl moving here to ‘escape’ their liberal hellscapes so they’re called.

Yeah assholes who moved here 15 years ago supported trump. True native Texans voted for Hillary. Should tell you something. 
 

But I was actually talking about people who moved here in the last 2 years. Not 15 years ago. 

[The Dog 43788]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If both parties are paying attention to Texas, it’s within the MOE. Biden does not need Texas, but it would be quite a blow to Trump and the gop to win it, and to have that talking point for the next 2 years (4? Is there a senate race in ‘22?)

I think Biden's ad buys here in Texas is telling that his campaign thinks he has at least a shot. And neither senator is up in 2022 - Cruz is up in 2024.

Also, I think Pelosi threw Trump a lifeline today with the 25th amendment stuff. I don't think it's helpful to Biden.

[Pato del Muerto 52338]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

I think Biden's ad buys here in Texas is telling that his campaign thinks he has at least a shot. And neither senator is up in 2022 - Cruz is up in 2024.

Also, I think Pelosi threw Trump a lifeline today with the 25th amendment stuff. I don't think it's helpful to Biden.

Yeah.  Unless they are just so flush with cash right now that they feel they’ve saturated the important states and would rather take flyers on longshots than risk message weariness in PA, WI, MI, etc. 

but longshot is different than no shot. 

[Horndog 2218]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

1.5 million new voters at 50% turnout is 750,000.  Trump won Texas in 2016 by 800,000. If those go 2-1 Biden, that leaves 500,000 left to catch up. That's a pretty big number, imo, but not impossible.

Trump won Texas 52% to 43%.  About 4.5% voted third party or write-in. Lost in the wash from 2016 is this: "Texas was one of the eleven states where Hillary Clinton improved on Barack Obama's performance in 2012.^[2]"  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas

Assuming the "I hate Hillary" phenomenon was just as prevalent in Texas as the rest of the country, that suggests a possible shift of a point or two in Biden's direction with everything else being the same.  Now, if you add in the projection that the 1.5 million new voters (the half that vote) break 2-1 for Biden,  you get to about a 3 - 4 point differential. A big unknown is how the smaller third party presence will impact the vote.  

Significant factors for 2020:

1. The "Hillary factor" is gone

2. Likely drift away from Trump by suburban women

3. Large number of new voters

4. Lesser third-party presence

5. Motivation

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

4 hours ago, GopherRock said:

We saw that back in April in Milwaukee, or at least the crawl through glass to vote Democrat effect. 

Wisconsin will also be an interesting test case of someone's theory (Brisket maybe?) that when you lose suburban women, the gerrymander breaks. Recall that in 2018, when Democrats won statewide Assembly votes by ~9 points, it got them 34 out of 99 seats.

Mike Li was the first person I saw posit this. You can't gerrymander gender.

[Goredho 17345]

55 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Oh yeah and the olds hate trump now since he’s trying to kill them. And Texas has plenty of olds who vote. 

I just can't see a lot of Sun City voting for a democrat.  I hope I'm wrong.

[Satchel 6908]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Does anyone else find it amazing that Trump is trying to have Joe Biden arrested, during the election, and it's not really much of a news story? 

It boggles the mind to think what’s been normalized since Trump became president; the crude language and behavior, the norm busting, the overall craziness that we’ve learned to accept.

[Huckleberry 32694]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I just can't see a lot of Sun City voting for a democrat.  I hope I'm wrong.

They just have to stay home to make a dent. 

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2659]

4 hours ago, Red Five said:

Got my ballot. Travis County. Still only the one drop-off location? 

 

Yep. The county office on Airport. I went on Tuesday afternoon and it took all of 5 minutes. You stay in your car and they route you to a parking space, take your ballot, and stamp and deposit it in a box while you watch.