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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Horn Dog

Horn Dog 9672

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Posted
44 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If that means they aren’t in line at their designated polling location to vote, then fuck ‘em. 

The way the scam is gonna work is they are gonna vote (mail or early), then large groups of them will get in line at dem heavy places to ask time consuming questions or ask for “verification of my vote” at dem heavy voting precent to clog shit up.  They will be out in full force on election day.

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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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heso

heso 2748

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

This man has no shame. If I was a farmer, I’d be smart enough to see through it, but I just don’t think the farmers of America are very intelligent.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-funnels-record-subsidies-farmers-120926107.html
 

He’s trying to buy your votes you fucking idiots.

My wife’s sister’s in-laws own and operate a large farm in central PA. Mostly dairy but also corn and soybeans. They are full on racists. As Trumpy as could be. And Trump is just handing them money. 

what do you expect them to see through?

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bolverk

bolverk 29399

Posted
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

When was the last fucking time the margin in AZ was 3% or less?

I'm using the averages from the tipping point page. Their current forecast for Arizona is 50.8% Biden and 47.9% Trump.

21 minutes ago, Pasken said:

This is their polling map. Not their consensus map. 

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast

For clarification, the map I posted above was applying the 538 figures to create my own map.

Edited by bolverk
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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6310

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Posted
3 hours ago, Texaspython said:

Not surprising really. The Guv’s Covid orders have been pretty unpopular. I still think Biden is fine there but it’s something to watch. Of course, NM probably isn’t going to matter either way.

I live in ABQ...her covid orders have been fairly intense (compared to other states) and have been somewhat criticized - the restaurants, of course, were pissed off, but they were fighting for their livelihoods - but its not like the governor's approach has been universally hated, and (anecdotally) mask-wearing/distancing has been pretty universally accepted here. 

I don't know, all NM US reps are D, both senators are D, governor is D and ABQ mayor is D. About 1/3 of the state's population lives in/around ABQ. Certainly there are some Trump loons here, but I'd be surprised if Biden doesn't win NM fairly comfortably. 

We'll see I guess. Early voting here starts Saturday. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5273

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Posted

Win chances have widened to 87/13 on 538 now. Hitting new highs basically every day at this point.

Some notable states with their current chance to win and change since the debate.

MI: 91% (+5%)

PA: 87% (+8%)

WI: 87% (+6%)

NV: 86% (+4%)

FL: 74% (+16%)

NC: 65% (+12%)

I've been so focused on PA/WI/MI that I had somewhat overlooked that Biden has had decent leads in almost every single NC & FL poll released the past 2 weeks. He's averaging 49.4% vote share in each state.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104612

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Win chances have widened to 87/13 on 538 now. Hitting new highs basically every day at this point.

Some notable states with their current chance to win and change since the debate.

MI: 91% (+5%)

PA: 87% (+8%)

WI: 87% (+6%)

NV: 86% (+4%)

FL: 74% (+16%)

NC: 65% (+12%)

I've been so focused on PA/WI/MI that I had somewhat overlooked that Biden has had decent leads in almost every single NC & FL poll released the past 2 weeks. He's averaging 49.4% vote share in each state.

I like these....but....FUCK FLORIDA.  Never, ever, ever trust Florida.  Ever.  That is the cornerstone "Lucy pulling the football away" state.  Fuck that entire place.

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1386

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Win chances have widened to 87/13 on 538 now. Hitting new highs basically every day at this point.

Some notable states with their current chance to win and change since the debate.

MI: 91% (+5%)

PA: 87% (+8%)

WI: 87% (+6%)

NV: 86% (+4%)

FL: 74% (+16%)

NC: 65% (+12%)

I've been so focused on PA/WI/MI that I had somewhat overlooked that Biden has had decent leads in almost every single NC & FL poll released the past 2 weeks. He's averaging 49.4% vote share in each state.

Part of the increase is due to getting closer to election day eliminating uncertainty. Nate tweeted a bit ago that if it were election day with the polls the same, it'd be 90% Biden. But even 10% of 4 more years of Trump is too much. 

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Willfully Horn

Willfully Horn 7913

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I know you know this, but most of them only get their "news" from FOX, and they're told that "Trump is simply continuing Obama's policies".  They truly believe it.  They wouldn't fact-check because they don't believe any other media source is legitimate.  This goes for sites like snopes & politifact as well.

I am reminded of a Molly Ivins piece from the early 90s, which foretold the splintering of trust in the media, as she assessed the Rush Limbaugh show. I mentioned it in a conversation with Paul Pryor, and said she had a point. He said: “Fuck you!”

Our next, and last, conversation was about fishing in the bays.

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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Posted
In 2016 Travis County was 66-27 for President with 464,889 total votes. I'm guessing both total votes and percentage of votes for Biden will both increase. 

I'd imagine it'll be low 70s. Beto got 74, and the venn diagram of Beto and Biden voters in Travis is basically a single circle. Maybe lower as Trump brings a few more Rs out than Cruz did, but sub-70 would be pretty surprising.

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29177

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31 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Part of the increase is due to getting closer to election day eliminating uncertainty. Nate tweeted a bit ago that if it were election day with the polls the same, it'd be 90% Biden. But even 10% of 4 more years of Trump is too much. 

not only that, but it's also due to millions of votes already flooding in.  part of the model being a "model" is that they can't always accurately account for turnout.  when votes are already cast, it's easier to estimate those numbers.

two things working against trump - dwindling time + early voting.  bad combination for someone planning all sorts of fuckery in the days leading up to election day.  they'll spend a month sifting through rubble, and by the time they work out what went wrong, we'll be sitting on a beach, earning twenty percent.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45558

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7 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

In 2016 Travis County was 66-27 for President with 464,889 total votes. I'm guessing both total votes and percentage of votes for Biden will both increase. 

Let's say total vote increases 20%, and Biden pulls 70%.  That's another 84,000 votes for Biden.

Scaling by population, which is probably optimistic, just looking at the big 4 counties (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar) that's 8.7X the population of Travis County.  If those counties saw a similar bump in Biden voters, that would be another 730K votes.  Add in Travis County, that gets over 810K Biden votes above Clinton in 2016.

The problem with this swag is that those counties are probably not as pro-Biden as Travis.  It does put a sense of scale to the problem though, and hints that the results might be very close, which is in line with polling.

Do not place any bets on the above numbers.  They are a total guess.

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32701

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Posted
Just now, Neonmoon said:

Texas turning blue would be the Chef's kiss of this election. 

Even if it happens it's not the permanent change yet. Trump is a uniquely detestable person. The primary benefit for Democrats would be the State House if that flipped. 

Regardless of the 2020 Texas Presidential outcome, the next decade or so will be political war in Texas. It shouldn't be taken for granted by either side for a while. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104612

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Even if it happens it's not the permanent change yet. Trump is a uniquely detestable person. The primary benefit for Democrats would be the State House if that flipped. 

Regardless of the 2020 Texas Presidential outcome, the next decade or so will be political war in Texas. It shouldn't be taken for granted by either side for a while. 

This.  Trump and Trumpism make Texas a GOP plus 3-5 state.  If a relatively sane Republican was running, it's more like a +6-8 state.  We have at least 10 years, probably 14, to go before Texas is even a Dem +1-2 state.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47879

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Posted
14 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it would be great if texas turned blue, but it's not necessary.  if trump wins texas by 2-3 and georgia by 1-2 this thing is over, and won't be close.

trump keeps talking landslide.  i'm pretty sure he's right.

I just am not sure I'm board with your first sentence yet. That fat fuck can win 6 or so states by 1-2 points, make the EC close to a tossup, and still be down 7 million in the popular vote. I get the idea of percentages normalized across states and momentum, but man, I just don't feel like that's a certainty. The system is designed so he can get his ass kicked and still walk away with EC votes because he barely wins some states and gets overwhelmingly crushed in others. And if the election is that close, well, here come the lawyers. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104612

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Posted

And, here's a good piece that encapsulates some of how I (and a lot of others) are thinking about this election: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/11/politics/democrats-stressed-election/index.html

Quote

Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump nationally and is running ahead or even with him in most swing state polls. He is besting Trump on just about every question atop voters' minds, from the coronavirus and health care to "law and order."

And yet, for many Democrats a constant anxiety -- that somehow seems to spike with each dose of good news -- persists.

Four years on from Trump's stunning victory, the psychic wounds of Hillary Clinton's loss remain fresh. When a flurry of new polls were released this week that showed Biden's advantage widening, the collective reaction from liberals, especially among the highly engaged online crowd, ranged from a shrug to near indignation.

.....

When the latest round of 2020 polls dropped showing Biden ahead, a kind of social media backlash followed shortly behind. Their response, in short: "Ignore them!" or "Don't get complacent!"

The tension is being amplified, in material terms, by concerns over Trump and some Republican lawmakers' efforts to suppress the vote or cast doubt on the outcome of the election. Trump's refusal to say he'll accept a losing outcome, regardless of what he does in the end, is itself a tool for depressing voter enthusiasm, experts say. And there are fears that the ongoing coronavirus pandemic could impact the reliability of turnout on both sides.

......

The prospect of Trump being re-elected represents a "cataclysmic disaster," said Neera Tanden, president of the Center for American Progress, a liberal thinktank and a longtime aide to Hillary Clinton.

The letdown in 2016 was "soul crushing," she said, and left her with "superstitions and anxieties" that make it "hard to sleep at night" even with the numbers looking favorable to Biden.

"If I told you there was just a 25% chance your house would be bombed tomorrow, that wouldn't be reassuring to you," Tanden said. "I think that is what is happening."

Asked on an otherwise upbeat call with reporters Friday if he still carried the scars of four years ago, Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA, the super PAC of choice for Clinton and now Biden, deadpanned, "I am not familiar with this 2016 you speak of."

Distress among Democrats and a near denial of the good news in front of them, he added, could be a potent tool in the final weeks until the election.

"We are putting that fear to good use," Cecil said, pointing to increased organization and donations. "Am I optimistic? Yes. But I do continue to have serious concerns and we do have to continue to run through the finish lines."

......

"For Democrats, the primary was jockeying to pick the best nominee from a group of friends; the general is confronting and undoing the national trauma and consequences we experience every day from the 2016 election," said Tim Hogan, an aide to Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar's primary campaign. "No matter how good the polls look, the latter exercise will always be more anxiety-inducing."

The steady stream of general election polls that show Biden leading, he added, have the cumulative effect of someone telling Democrats to "calm down."

"But that's never going to work when the world is on fire around you."

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104612

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I just am not sure I'm board with your first sentence yet. That fat fuck can win 6 or so states by 1-2 points, make the EC close to a tossup, and still be down 7 million in the popular vote. I get the idea of percentages normalized across states and momentum, but man, I just don't feel like that's a certainty. The system is designed so he can get his ass kicked and still walk away with EC votes because he barely wins some states and gets overwhelmingly crushed in others. And if the election is that close, well, here come the lawyers. 

6m3be.jpg

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29177

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I just am not sure I'm board with your first sentence yet. That fat fuck can win 6 or so states by 1-2 points, make the EC close to a tossup, and still be down 7 million in the popular vote. I get the idea of percentages normalized across states and momentum, but man, I just don't feel like that's a certainty. The system is designed so he can get his ass kicked and still walk away with EC votes because he barely wins some states and gets overwhelmingly crushed in others. And if the election is that close, well, here come the lawyers. 

there is nothing specific about texas and georgia (or ohio and iowa for that matter) that tell me biden should be doing better there than what we see nationally.  sure, it's mathematically possible that biden overperforms (but loses) in 4-5 red states, and then somehow drastically underperforms in 5-6 blue states (and either loses or it's too close to call), but the current math/polling/projections/trend don't suggest this.

obviously, we want to win texas, georgia, florida, iowa, ohio, and make any lawsuit talk seem silly.  i'm just trying to insert some logic where it clearly does not belong.

the popular vote number i've seen multiple places is 4.5 points where it's virtually impossible to wrap the ec around a reversal.  let's round that up to 5 points for safety.  if biden keeps it close in texas and georgia, he's gonna win by 7-8 points, probably more.  i'm happy with that margin.  that margin is an electoral college win with room to spare.

 

 

Edited by henrygandorf
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Red Five

Red Five 40663

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Posted
22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I just am not sure I'm board with your first sentence yet. That fat fuck can win 6 or so states by 1-2 points, make the EC close to a tossup, and still be down 7 million in the popular vote. I get the idea of percentages normalized across states and momentum, but man, I just don't feel like that's a certainty. The system is designed so he can get his ass kicked and still walk away with EC votes because he barely wins some states and gets overwhelmingly crushed in others. And if the election is that close, well, here come the lawyers. 

IMO, if Trump wins the necessary states needed to get to 270 then the election was stolen in some form or another. The math isn't there for him. 

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WBT

WBT 20421

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Trump brings a few more Rs out than Cruz

I don't think that's true in Texas.  Cruz won the 2016 Texas primary when a  Trump nomination victory was already starting to look inevitable.

Edited by WBT
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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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Posted
I don't think that's true in Texas.  Cruz won the 2016 Texas primary when a  Trump nomination victory was already starting to look inevitable.

More thinking presidential election vs midterm senate election. phrased tgat poorly. They're both loathed relative to Abbott or some generic downballot R most people know nothing about.

 

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4th&Five

4th&Five 41461

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Posted
Just now, Red Five said:

IMO, if Trump wins the necessary states needed to get to 270 then the election was stolen in some form or another. The math isn't there for him. 

 

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Again......

6m3be.jpg

and we'll all know it and the unrest and possible civil war will make the election look like the least of our problems.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, heso said:

I expect that’s a very localized result of him not doing shit for dying coal towns and is little indication of anything happening outside of WV. 

Western PA should be relevant then, and the Rs need it to overcome eastern PA/philly/state college like last time. 

just saw who i quoted, lol. But I’m right aren’t I?

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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