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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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350,000+ people voted in person in Florida today. Their first day of early voting. I’ll be interested to see the party affiliation when it’s updated tomorrow. 
 

some of the voters in line even got pizza sent to them by ariana grande.


https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/10/19/florida-shatters-opening-day-record-for-early-voting-1327488

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27547

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1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

All to get the privilege of watching him roll up in an airplane, waddle his fat ass down some stairs, give a zero-effort 30 minute speech, then waddle his fat ass back up to his airplane,

I have to say I’d be tempted to watch him do battle with airplane staircase twice. If it were an escalator I probably couldn’t pass it up

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WBT

WBT 20561

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8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

350,000+ people voted in person in Florida today. Their first day of early voting. I’ll be interested to see the party affiliation when it’s updated tomorrow. 
 

some of the voters in line even got pizza sent to them by ariana grande.


https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/10/19/florida-shatters-opening-day-record-for-early-voting-1327488

Rick Barnes once sent us pizza while waiting in line for the O Zone, so this hits close to home.

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Reynolds Woodcock

Reynolds Woodcock 4739

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Ralston’s final blog post from last night does not give me the warm and fuzzies

From the post:


“Dems up by just under 12K. Net gain of 600 by GOP for the day.

Urban lead in Nevada: 54K. It was about 74K at the end of early voting in 2016. 

I still think the rural tsunami is coming.”

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South Austin

South Austin 52463

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3 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Ralston’s final blog post from last night does not give me the warm and fuzzies

From the post:


“Dems up by just under 12K. Net gain of 600 by GOP for the day.

Urban lead in Nevada: 54K. It was about 74K at the end of early voting in 2016. 

I still think the rural tsunami is coming.”

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Texaspython

Texaspython 231

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8 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Ralston’s final blog post from last night does not give me the warm and fuzzies

From the post:


“Dems up by just under 12K. Net gain of 600 by GOP for the day.

Urban lead in Nevada: 54K. It was about 74K at the end of early voting in 2016. 

I still think the rural tsunami is coming.”

Yeah, don’t like that either. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

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7 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Ralston’s final blog post from last night does not give me the warm and fuzzies

From the post:


“Dems up by just under 12K. Net gain of 600 by GOP for the day.

Urban lead in Nevada: 54K. It was about 74K at the end of early voting in 2016. 

I still think the rural tsunami is coming.”

Probably need to give that more context. Republicans leading early voting was for in person voting. Democrats are crushing it in mail in voting. Democrats have a 54k total lead in Urban voting, and it seems are on pace to exceed the early voting lead from 2016. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9927

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I got to be honest, I'm starting to get a bit of a nagging feeling about GOP turnout.  I hope it's just 2016 PTSD.  As long as the Dem's don't tread water for the rest of EV, and continue to pile up numbers in Clark, we should be good, but I'd like to not see Monday repeated.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

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4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I got to be honest, I'm starting to get a bit of a nagging feeling about GOP turnout.  I hope it's just 2016 PTSD.  As long as the Dem's don't tread water for the rest of EV, and continue to pile up numbers in Clark, we should be good, but I'd like to not see Monday repeated.

Y'all are reading it wrong (mostly because it is poorly written). Dems aren't treading water in Clark, they are aggressively adding to their lead via mail in:

"Dem lead in mail is massive, so shaves 2K off lead and it is still at 42K in Clark -- an increase of 6K votes since this AM's update. It was 24K at this point in '16."

The 600 net GOP change was for Washoe only. Note: Hillary only won there by 3k votes. 

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Texaspython

Texaspython 231

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40 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Y'all are reading it wrong (mostly because it is poorly written). Dems aren't treading water in Clark, they are aggressively adding to their lead via mail in:

"Dem lead in mail is massive, so shaves 2K off lead and it is still at 42K in Clark -- an increase of 6K votes since this AM's update. It was 24K at this point in '16."

The 600 net GOP change was for Washoe only. Note: Hillary only won there by 3k votes. 

Yeah but there are 1 mill rural votes that haven’t come in yet in a state with 3 mill people. We’re behind a fairly tight race in 2016.

Again, Nevada may not matter at all but it’d sure be nice to ahead of 2016.

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Pancho

Pancho 44757

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59 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I got to be honest, I'm starting to get a bit of a nagging feeling about GOP turnout.  I hope it's just 2016 PTSD.  As long as the Dem's don't tread water for the rest of EV, and continue to pile up numbers in Clark, we should be good, but I'd like to not see Monday repeated.

Wasserman making me feel better

 

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gyroprotagonist

gyroprotagonist 2592

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14 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:
16 hours ago, Superhero said:

This is a referendum on Trump. You could replace Biden with a potted plant, and the potted plant will still win by 8 points.

But have you seen what that potted plant's seedlings have done?  going around and huffing fertilizer and abusing miracle grow to get high.  nevermind how they are using their position to get a much better location in the sun than all the other plants just because they are related.

don't get me started on what they found on their leaftop computer.  lots of plant-on-seedling action.  disgusting!

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

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4 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

Yeah but there are 1 mill rural votes that haven’t come in yet in a state with 3 mill people. We’re behind a fairly tight race in 2016.

Again, Nevada may not matter at all but it’d sure be nice to ahead of 2016.

Behind? How? Again, y'all are reading it wrong. In 2016, at this point, Dems were up 24k in Clark county. Right now they have almost doubled that lead to 42k. 

Quote

 

Here is this mornings update: 

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types. Here's where we are:

Clark firewall: 42,000 Dem lead (13 percent of active voters have cast ballots)

It was 73,000 after two weeks of early voting in 2016.

Statewide: 52,000 Dem lead (without rurals from Monday, 13 percent of vote in)

It was 45,000 after two weeks of early voting in 2016.

So the statewide lead will be diminished a bit once the rurals come in, but a 54,000 lead in urban Nevada because of the mail explosion is something. 

 

Clark is at a 42,000 lead in 3 days of early voting compared to 73,000 lead after 2 weeks of early voting in 2016. 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27547

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I got to be honest, I'm starting to get a bit of a nagging feeling about GOP turnout.  I hope it's just 2016 PTSD.  As long as the Dem's don't tread water for the rest of EV, and continue to pile up numbers in Clark, we should be good, but I'd like to not see Monday repeated.

My Aggy neighbor who is a former marine had a Biden/Harris sign in his yard this am. He’s not your typical ag but is right of center on many things and not vocal about politics. People want this fuck gone

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The Dog

The Dog 44020

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 A few new polls:

Ohio (Rasmussen): Biden +1

Arizona (Data Orbital): Biden +5

North Carolina (ABC): Biden +1

Florida (UNF): Biden +1

All but Arizona within margin of error and statistical dead heats. The most significant one IMHO is the Ohio number from Rasmussen Reports. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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The early/mail voting stats don't really make me feel good or bad.  More Dems believe in the dangers of COVID and believe in the validity of vote-by-mail.  It make sense they would be well ahead of 2016 early/mail voting.  It makes sense they would be ahead of Republicans in that regard.  By how much?  Who the fuck knows. So, it's a comparison that I don't see as that interesting.  About the only aspect I do find interesting is when they list the percentages of people who didn't vote in 2016.  But even that, I'm not sure what is normal.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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1 minute ago, Tuco said:

The early/mail voting stats don't really make me feel good or bad.  More Dems believe in the dangers of COVID and believe in the validity of vote-by-mail.  It make sense they would be well ahead of 2016 early/mail voting.  It makes sense they would be ahead of Republicans in that regard.  By how much?  Who the fuck knows. So, it's a comparison that I don't see as that interesting.  About the only aspect I do find interesting is when they list the percentages of people who didn't vote in 2016.  But even that, I'm not sure what is normal.  

Yep. 
Honestly anyone who tells you they know exactly what early votes mean relative to the election, in a time of pandemic, is lying to you and/or themselves. 
mare they shifting votes forward and into the mail?  Is shifting to mail going to cost votes because people are idiots and can’t follow instructions which will get their ballot tossed? (Note- I am such an idiot that routinely fucks up “doing paperwork” so I get it).  Are mail carriers throwing votes away?  Sure. Somewhere in a country of 330 million people something awesome, terrible, smart and stupid is happening every minute of every day. What’s the net effect of all that?  Damned if I or anyone else really knows. It’s a brand new world nobody has experienced before. Nobody knows exactly what all this stuff means. 
that’s not to say we don’t know Biden is well ahead with almost zero undecideds left. That’s just standard polling we’ve done forever. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I hate the recent Florida polls.  That state is 100% voting for Trump. Fuck Florida. 

Eh- it went for Obama by a little bit in 2012 and a decent amount in 2008 and went for Clinton once as well (but not twice I don’t think). It’s typically the jump off the top rope then strut and preen state for a Dem winning. If Biden wins by 5+ I fully expect him to barely carry Florida. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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1 minute ago, HenryJames said:

There isn’t even 1 million rural eligible voters in Nevada.

Yep. It’s funny to read Ralston living in Harris county for example. You see how few votes there are out there and kind of chuckle. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I hate the recent Florida polls.  That state is 100% voting for Trump. Fuck Florida. 

Florida, Georgia, and NC are going to be obscenely close. We may not get calls on them until days later. Let's hope Biden gets the Rust Belt back so that we can call an overall winner on election night.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Florida, Georgia, and NC are going to be obscenely close. We may not get calls on them until days later.

Yeah but the thing is you don’t need any of them, nor arizona. If those styles are obscenely close then WI, MI and PA should be comfortably blue. You are just into running up the score territory and ought to already be popping bottles bc it’s over. 

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The Dog

The Dog 44020

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2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Florida, Georgia, and NC are going to be obscenely close. We may not get calls on them until days later.

Georgia and NC are states that Trump won by 5% and 4% respectively in 2016. The fact that they are this close says a lot about what is likely to occur. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah but the thing is you don’t need any of them, nor arizona. If those styles are obscenely close then WI, MI and PA should be comfortably blue. You are just into running up the score territory and ought to already be popping bottles bc it’s over. 

Probably, yeah. 

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Reynolds Woodcock

Reynolds Woodcock 4739

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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah but the thing is you don’t need any of them, nor arizona. If those styles are obscenely close then WI, MI and PA should be comfortably blue. You are just into running up the score territory and ought to already be popping bottles bc it’s over. 

And both WI and PA have real chances of not being fully counted on Election Day, particularly for mail in ballots. If WI, PA, NC and GA are all too close to call on election night, it is going to be messy (and I will be perpetually intoxicated). 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Georgia and NC are states that Trump won by 5% and 4% respectively in 2016. The fact that they are this close says a lot about what is likely to occur. 

That’s been my point all along. If he’s fighting a battle over states he absolutely needs and should win then there’s no way the erstwhile blue wall states are going for him. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Florida, Georgia, and NC are going to be obscenely close. We may not get calls on them until days later. Let's hope Biden gets the Rust Belt back so that we can call an overall winner on election night.
The big three rust belt states almost certainly aren't getting called on election night. WI and PA can't even begin processing mail ballots until election day and Michigan is only slightly better.

The best hope hope for an ironclad Biden election night win is winning FL and one of AZ/NC. That or the total killshot with TX, but the latter is unlikely in general and borderline unfathomable if FL/NC/AZ don't join anyway.
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