2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Ralston’s final blog post from last night does not give me the warm and fuzzies

From the post:

“Dems up by just under 12K. Net gain of 600 by GOP for the day.

Urban lead in Nevada: 54K. It was about 74K at the end of early voting in 2016. 

I still think the rural tsunami is coming.”

No need to freak out about a 20K difference with 8-10 days left of early voting. Young people will show up in Nevada as it gets closer to Election Day.

[BradInATX 9208]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ohio will also probably go blue if GA is that close, honestly. IA for sure. 

Ohio is going to end up 2-3 points redder than GA. Iowa about a half point to a point.

[Mole 4336]

20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah but the thing is you don’t need any of them, nor arizona. If those styles are obscenely close then WI, MI and PA should be comfortably blue. You are just into running up the score territory and ought to already be popping bottles bc it’s over. 

I want to run up the score. The country needs to go full Spurrier in rejecting this stain of a movement.

[Pato del Muerto 52884]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The big three rust belt states almost certainly aren't getting called on election night. WI and PA can't even begin processing mail ballots until election day and Michigan is only slightly better.

The best hope hope for an ironclad Biden election night win is winning FL and one of AZ/NC. That or the total killshot with TX, but the latter is unlikely in general and borderline unfathomable if FL/NC/AZ don't join anyway.

But what % of those states’ voting is by mail?  A significant amount?

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The big three rust belt states almost certainly aren't getting called on election night. WI and PA can't even begin processing mail ballots until election day and Michigan is only slightly better.

The best hope hope for an ironclad Biden election night win is winning FL and one of AZ/NC. That or the total killshot with TX, but the latter is unlikely in general and borderline unfathomable if FL/NC/AZ don't join anyway.

 

Yep - I'm hoping for the FL/AZ combo.

But honestly, if Biden wins Florida I'm popping the bottle. There's no reason to wait. If he wins Florida he's going to sweep the Rust Belt, win Arizona, and probably win NC too. The only possible swing states redder than Florida are GA, IA, TX, and OH. 

My hope is an early Florida call and I can get to bed before 2am.

Edited October 20, 2020 by BradInATX

[Snake Diggity 4628]

10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The big three rust belt states almost certainly aren't getting called on election night. WI and PA can't even begin processing mail ballots until election day and Michigan is only slightly better.

The best hope hope for an ironclad Biden election night win is winning FL and one of AZ/NC. That or the total killshot with TX, but the latter is unlikely in general and borderline unfathomable if FL/NC/AZ don't join anyway.

I believe PA, MI, MN, NV, ME, and 1 from NE can be called for Biden on election night, and that would get Biden to 270.  Now, of course that doesn’t mean Trump would concede, but if that list are all +5 or greater for Biden, it makes it far less likely that Trumps contest should be taken seriously. 
 

Even if Biden is shown to win EVERY close state (including TX, GA, FL, NC, WI, and OH), Trump will contest the results everywhere, and if it is <+5 Biden then the contest will probably carry weight.  It’s insane, but we could see a 350+ EV total called for Biden on election night without seeing Trump concede or even an official result until weeks later.

Edited October 20, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[henrygandorf 29199]

40 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

There are not 1 million rural votes in Nevada. It is all empty desert, and NV has one of the highest % of residents living in urban areas of any state.

 

there are a lot of holes in that desert. and a lot of problems buried in those holes. 

[Pato del Muerto 52884]

2 minutes ago, Mole said:

I want to run up the score. The country needs to go full Spurrier in rejecting this stain of a movement.

Yeah there’s a difference in beating someone up until they stay down, vs then kicking them while they are down, vs then dragging them over for a curb stomping. Texas is the curb stomping and it needs to happen. 

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

2 minutes ago, Mole said:

I want to run up the score. The country needs to go full Spurrier in rejecting this stain of a movement.

Sure. You can want to run up the score all you want but the first thing to do is secure victory. That’s all that really matters. Beyond that if it’s razor thin and under a point in Florida, Texas, GA and Ohio and 100 EV are on the line does it really matter which way it went if those races are all balancing on a knives edge?  The best argument for running up the score and “will of the people” is total popular vote,  not whether you win GA by 30k votes or not. 

[NorthLoop 14303]

13 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Or maybe it's like reading Arabic, where you go right to left.

 

 

 

 

Theالموز الفاسد Method

Edited October 20, 2020 by NorthLoop

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Ohio is going to end up 2-3 points redder than GA. Iowa about a half point to a point.

Maybe. It means me recalibration my entire political life so it’s weird to say. Not saying you are wrong 

[henrygandorf 29199]

the latest ernst numbers have me feeling more optimistic about iowa. 

[Pato del Muerto 52884]

3 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

 

 

Theالموز الفاسد Method

Seems to me if you are reading right to left, that you’d be spelling words in that direction as well. 

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe. It means me recalibration my entire political life so it’s weird to say. Not saying you are wrong 

I could be talking out of my ass but isn't there some stat that Ohio has voted with the winner for 50+ years in the presidential election? So yeah, it would mean a big change in the map if Biden wins without Ohio. I mean, there's an unlikely but possible scenario where Biden loses Ohio and wins 393-145. Crazy.

[NorthLoop 14303]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Seems to me if you are reading right to left, that you’d be spelling words in that direction as well. 

Sounds like that infidel talk again

[gmr548 16641]

But what % of those states’ voting is by mail?  A significant amount?

I'm honestly not sure but the consensus in the reporting appears to be to not expect calls in those three states due to mail votes. If they get called for Biden the night of that likely indicates a complete bloodbath given the partisan split on mail voting.

I believe PA, MI, MN, NV, ME, and 1 from NE can be called for Biden on election night, and that would get Biden to 270.  Now, of course that doesn’t mean Trump would concede, but if that list are all +5 or greater for Biden, it makes it far less likely that Trumps contest should be taken seriously. 
 
Even if Biden is shown to win EVERY close state (including TX, GA, FL, NC, WI, and OH), Trump will contest the results everywhere, and if it is

See above. MI maybe, they did pass something to allow for some processing and it appears to be Biden's best Midwestern state. MN for sure - not a swing state. NV I've read also might take a while due to mail votes, but I doubt that'll swing the election.

[Pato del Muerto 52884]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe. It means me recalibration my entire political life so it’s weird to say. Not saying you are wrong 

I’ve never been to Ohio to have a handle on their demographics, but I’d imagine there’s a lot less black people and a lot more non-college educated white people than Georgia. 

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I could be talking out of my ass but isn't there some stat that Ohio has voted with the winner for 50+ years in the presidential election? So yeah, it would mean a big change in the map if Biden wins without Ohio. I mean, there's an unlikely but possible scenario where Biden loses Ohio and wins 393-145. Crazy.

That went out the window in Ohio I think with 1 election. I think it’s like all but 1 in the last 100+ years. 
What I’m really taking about is the idea of Iowa being more red than Georgia. I don’t buy that until I see it a couple times. I’m probably wrong. Just hard for me to wrap my mind around such a major change. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[The Dog 44185]

10 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Trump will contest the results everywhere

He needs money to do that. Lawyers are expensive. 

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’ve never been to Ohio to have a handle on their demographics, but I’d imagine there’s a lot less black people and a lot more non-college educated white people than Georgia. 

Ohio is basically America. It’s demographically and educationally and economically pretty close to a stand in for the country. Maybe a little light in Hispanics. 

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

He needs money to do that. Lawyers are expensive. 

Not if you don’t pay them. 

[Tuco 5084]

14 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Yep - I'm hoping for the FL/AZ combo.

But honestly, if Biden wins Florida I'm popping the bottle. There's no reason to wait. If he wins Florida he's going to sweep the Rust Belt, win Arizona, and probably win NC too. The only possible swing states redder than Florida are GA, IA, TX, and OH. 

My hope is an early Florida call and I can get to bed before 2am.

Florida doesn't start counting mail-in ballots until the polls close.  I think it's going to take a while for them. 

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not if you don’t pay them. 

RE--TAIN--ER

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm honestly not sure but the consensus in the reporting appears to be to not expect calls in those three states due to mail votes. If they get called for Biden the night of that likely indicates a complete bloodbath given the partisan split on mail voting.See above. MI maybe, they did pass something to allow for some processing and it appears to be Biden's best Midwestern state. MN for sure - not a swing state. NV I've read also might take a while due to mail votes, but I doubt that'll swing the election.

Only way Nevada swings the election is if Biden is trying to walk that path where he wins AZ and MI and Wi but loses PA and needs the 1 congressional delegation in NE to get to 270. Then a NV flip would be a game ended for Biden. I don’t think that’s super likely. 

[conVINCEd 21474]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That end tout the window on Ohio I think with 1 election. I think it’s like all butn1 in the last 100+ years. 
What I’m really taking about is the idea of Iowa being more red than Georgia. I don’t buy that until I see it a couple times. I’m probably wrong. Just hard for me to wrap my mind around such a major change. 

I’ve been to Iowa and I’ve been to Atlanta.  It is not difficult for me to believe that Iowa is redder.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5138]

13 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

 

I had never heard this particular one talk and it turns out she's just as vapid as her sister.  Also, don't play 11 year old club music that didn't age well to a group of gays. They'll revolt, unless they are a bunch of morons.  Judging by the sound of the crowd, I guess she found herself a bunch of morons.

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

1 minute ago, Texas St. Armadillos said:

RE--TAIN--ER

Like that’s a thing you’d need with a big shot like Trump. Psssssshaw. 

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

1 minute ago, conVINCEd said:

I’ve been to Iowa and I’ve been to Atlanta.  It is not difficult for me to believe that Iowa is redder.

It never used to be. And yeah- I’ve spent a ton of time in both as my ex was from Iowa and my best friend lives in Georgia. 

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1292]

2 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

I had never heard this particular one talk and it turns out she's just as vapid as her sister.  Also, don't play 11 year old club music that didn't age well to a group of gays. They'll revolt, unless they are a bunch of morons.  Judging by the sound of the crowd, I guess she found herself a bunch of morons.

It pretty much goes for everyone that if you ever find yourself as an attendee at an event where Tiffany Trump is the keynote speaker, you are, in fact, a moron.

[RomaVicta 30083]

I see Lobo already explained his ballot. It was as I figured. I lean with Brisket on eschewing all GOPs, but an informed voter choosing persons of no real impact on the national scene is an arguably appropriate way to try to keep a few traditional GOP embers burning. 

I don't know how traditional GOPs will divest themselves of the cult. They will always have to appeal to it for any chance of winning national office or an unsteamrollable minority in Congress.

Edited October 20, 2020 by RomaVicta

[Guest Lobo]

Fair questions.  I ain’t dodging it.  Let me preface it by saying I’m not a true GOP’er.  My only formal party affiliation of the last four years has been a card carrying member of the LP.  But I do vote way more Republican than Democrat.  I think this is a worthwhile discussion that we should all have but maybe on another thread so as not to derail this one?   But I’d love to get it off my chest however deemed appropriate.  

[pyrohornIII 4839]

 

12 minutes ago, The Dog said:

He needs money to do that. Lawyers are expensive. 

That's why he was pulling money from his ads, to lock down attys with retainers.  And probably a bunch who are doing it pro bono for future favors that will never come.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

I still have a bad case of 2016 PTSD and these next two weeks are going to make my head explode.  

[gmr548 16641]

That went out the window in Ohio I think with 1 election. I think it’s like all but 1 in the last 100+ years. 
What I’m really taking about is the idea of Iowa being more red than Georgia. I don’t buy that until I see it a couple times. I’m probably wrong. Just hard for me to wrap my mind around such a major change. 

Ohio is basically America. It’s demographically and educationally and economically pretty close to a stand in for the country. Maybe a little light in Hispanics. 

Not really so. Ohio is a lot whiter than the nation due to the total lack of Hispanic population. It's not just a little light. Ohio is five-ish percent Hispanic while the nation is about 18 percent. It's below the national average for college education by a decent margin. It's older than the nation.

I think you're underestimating how exclusively white, and in the current climate uneducated (formerly old as well, that still applies in general but less so in this race), the GOP electorate is.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

My Uncle lives in Ohio, career Air Force Vietnam Vet, total Trumper and I blame it almost entirely on Fox News. 

[Hiphopopotamos 20894]

19 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Florida doesn't start counting mail-in ballots until the polls close.  I think it's going to take a while for them. 

According to this Florida can start verifying/counting Absentee and Mail ballots 22 days before the election.  I thought Florida was one of the states that expected to count quick and be called the night of the election.

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

 

[The Dog 44185]

15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’ve been to Iowa and I’ve been to Atlanta.  It is not difficult for me to believe that Iowa is redder.

I lived in the ATL for 10 years and I can assure you Georgia historically is a lot redder than Iowa. 

Iowa Voting History

Georgia voting history

[RomaVicta 30083]

9 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Fair questions.  I ain’t dodging it.  Let me preface it by saying I’m not a true GOP’er.  My only formal party affiliation of the last four years has been a card carrying member of the LP.  But I do vote way more Republican than Democrat.  I think this is a worthwhile discussion that we should all have but maybe on another thread so as not to derail this one?   But I’d love to get it off my chest however deemed appropriate.  

I'm catching up and saw that. I didn't think you were dodging. Thanks rep on the earlier post where you explain your vote.

A new thread would be good. I may have started one long ago that, I think, got sidetracked by the more vocal cultists of the time. Or maybe I don't remember correctly.

 

[The Dog 44185]

2 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

According to this Florida can start verifying/counting Absentee and Mail ballots 22 days before the election.  I thought Florida was one of the states that expected to count quick and be called the night of the election.

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

 

Yup - they changed the law so they could have the results on election night. Florida and Texas will have their results election night or the next day at the latest.

Michigan and Pennsylvania decided to keep fucking that goat and could take longer. Idiots. 

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I lived in the ATL for 10 years and I can assure you Georgia historically is a lot redder than Iowa. 

Iowa Voting History

Georgia voting history

That’s what I was saying.  You quoted me saying someone else’s quote I think. That was my point was GA always been redder than IA. 

[conVINCEd 21474]

I stated that poorly.  My impression of both places would lead me to believe that Iowa is more likely to remain red, regardless of what they have been in the past.

[Snake Diggity 4628]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Yup - they changed the law so they could have the results on election night. Florida and Texas will have their results election night or the next day at the latest.

Michigan and Pennsylvania decided to keep fucking that goat and could take longer. Idiots. 

The best realistic case is that PA and MI are wide enough margin (>5%)  that they are not reasonably contestable even if they aren’t officially called, while FL is called for Biden on election night.  That would probably be enough to prevent chaos/violence/prolonged agony.

[NWBuck 8590]

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Not really so. Ohio is a lot whiter than the nation due to the total lack of Hispanic population. It's not just a little light. Ohio is five-ish percent Hispanic while the nation is about 18 percent. It's below the national average for college education by a decent margin. It's older than the nation.

I think you're underestimating how exclusively white, and in the current climate uneducated (formerly old as well, that still applies in general but less so in this race), the GOP electorate is.

And it's gerrymandered to fuck as well. Here's Gym Jordan's district- he's from a small town at the bottom left, near Springfield, but this district runs all the way up to the lake and the exurbs of Cleveland.

[Ghost of LL 15605]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Florida, Georgia, and NC are going to be obscenely close. We may not get calls on them until days later. Let's hope Biden gets the Rust Belt back so that we can call an overall winner on election night.

You're going to get a call on all three on Election Night.  All three are going to have a sizable early vote that is counted quickly, with limited mail-in balloting.  And even if it is close, you're going to get a call.

[SydneyCarton 48311]

 

34 minutes ago, The Dog said:

He needs money to do that. Lawyers are expensive. 

He has donors who will pony up, or republicans who will do it bro bono, or both, and yeah, he only needs to come up with down payments/initial retainers. 

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

5 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

I stated that poorly.  My impression of both places would lead me to believe that Iowa is more likely to remain red, regardless of what they have been in the past.

That’s what’s happening if it plays out that way. 

[Wulaw Horn 19249]

3 minutes ago, NWBuck said:

And it's gerrymandered to fuck as well. Here's Gym Jordan's district- he's from a small town at the bottom left, near Springfield, but this district runs all the way up to the lake and the exurbs of Cleveland.

Sure. But we are taking about statewide presidential. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Congratulations Republicans, you’ve allowed your party to become a christofascist death cult of white patriarchal supremacy mostly out of political expediency because all your ideas are trash. 

[RomaVicta 30083]

On 10/18/2020 at 2:04 PM, Bojack said:

Who the hell is Ron Johnson?  Who the hell is this guy to be saying anything about child pornography?  How old was Stacy Hamilton when you took her to that dugout, Ron?

Shame on Bartiromo and the piece of shit she's interviewing. 

Maria was once sitting in the bar of an expensive hotel known for high dollar hookers. Connect the dots for me, Maria. Are you a whore?

I guess that would be redundant since only a whore would sell their soul for an anchor job at an anti-democratic propaganda broadcast outlet.

Fuck you, Maria.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6568]

Congratulations Republicans, you’ve allowed your party to become a christofascist death cult of white patriarchal supremacy mostly out of political expediency because all your ideas are trash. 

End Times, huh? So I got that going for me. Which is nice.


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