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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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bolverk

bolverk 29694

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Posted

This discussion of age and voting patterns reminds me of an analysis by the NYTimes a few years ago showing that there's a "stickiness" to partisan tendencies overtime that were originally acquired around the period in which one first begins to vote or become politically active in early adulthood. It's an interactive slide chart here for those with a subscription or who don't mind burning one of their monthly views. 

For the others, I'll post some screenshots to demonstrate. Keep in mind that this is a few years old, so everyone analyzed is a few years older and we don't have a retroactive projection for what the reality is today.

First, focus on their partisan leaning around 20 years of age and take note of who was the president at the time and recall what was going on. Then, look down the road to the 2012 election to see how they were voting. My age group (born in 1971) came of age at the end of the Cold War, Fall of the Wall, the Golden Era of the Gipper was still shining, and we kicked some Iraqi butt out in the desert sands. As a result, white folks my age are still strongly influenced by that period.

Personally, I was turned off by the GOP as I was detecting some of the early seeds of what we call "Trumpism" now full in bloom, and it scared the shit out of me about what they were going to become. There was Rush, Jesse Helms, Pat Roberts, Pat Buchanan, Gingrich, etc. Mean, racist, lying shitbags was their brand to me, and I felt like it was coming into ascendency. So, I was turned off very early and rejected my Republican rearing.

Born in 1941, raised after WW2...they liked Ike.

Picture2.png

Born in 1951...Great Society, Civil Rights, Nixon is a crook:

Picture3.png

Born in 1961...Carter was a pussy but now it's morning in America again and we're the Thirtysomething Yuppies.

Picture4.png

Born in 1971...see above for my cohort description.

Picture5.png

Born in 1981...Clinton years, followed by 9/11 and uber patriotism but realizing the Iraq War kinda sucks.

Picture7.png

Born in 1991...War, Great Recession, Obama & Hope.

Picture8.png

I guess I can see how some of the early Millennials (the 1981 crowd), who weren't fully bought-in on Obama in 2012 could've been swayed by Maga. I guess like y'all said, the divide for them could really come down to education and rural/urban split. I'm just glad to see that some of my Gen Xers, at least in Iowa, may be coming to their fucking senses.

Man, I hope they update this thing after these elections, because it's fucking fascinating.

 

 

 

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

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Millennials grew up during 9/11, graduated during a financial crisis/housing crash, outsourcing and automation in overdrive. Many are single, lonely and broke. I see them at the dog park every day. It's not surprising some are falling for the Republicans con job.

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DigglerontheHoof

DigglerontheHoof 21204

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I was born exactly between the 61 and 71 group, in 1966.  My "personal graph" mirrors the 1971.  I'm 54 now so, you could go ahead and trend that line well into the liberal side.

Huh, I guess I'm the "if you're a Republican at 20 you have no heart, if you're a liberal at 50, you have no brain.   

I blame hornfans, shag and surly, respectively. 

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bolverk

bolverk 29694

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7 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Millennials grew up during 9/11, graduated during a financial crisis/housing crash, outsourcing and automation in overdrive. Many are single, lonely and broke. I see them at the dog park every day. It's not surprising some are falling for the Republicans con job.

Those who graduated during the Great Recession would be closer to the 1991 (young Millennials) cohort who are now about 30 and are the most liberal of the bunch. It's the '81ers (old Millennials) who are approaching their 40s now. They probably got kicked in the teeth by the Great Recession when starting their families. Those are the ones who may be swinging in Iowa toward Maga.

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G650

G650 14263

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3 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I was born exactly between the 61 and 71 group, in 1966.  My "personal graph" mirrors the 1971.  I'm 54 now so, you could go ahead and trend that line well into the liberal side.

Huh, I guess I'm the "if you're a Republican at 20 you have no heart, if you're a liberal at 50, you have no brain.   

I blame hornfans, shag and surly, respectively. 

I'm between @bolverk
and 1981, I split the difference in the two graphs too. Swing further right initially, then back to the center like the 1981 graph.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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21 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This discussion of age and voting patterns reminds me of an analysis by the NYTimes a few years ago showing that there's a "stickiness" to partisan tendencies overtime that were originally acquired around the period in which one first begins to vote or become politically active in early adulthood. It's an interactive slide chart here for those with a subscription or who don't mind burning one of their monthly views. 

For the others, I'll post some screenshots to demonstrate. Keep in mind that this is a few years old, so everyone analyzed is a few years older and we don't have a retroactive projection for what the reality is today.

First, focus on their partisan leaning around 20 years of age and take note of who was the president at the time and recall what was going on. Then, look down the road to the 2012 election to see how they were voting. My age group (born in 1971) came of age at the end of the Cold War, Fall of the Wall, the Golden Era of the Gipper was still shining, and we kicked some Iraqi butt out in the desert sands. As a result, white folks my age are still strongly influenced by that period.

Personally, I was turned off by the GOP as I was detecting some of the early seeds of what we call "Trumpism" now full in bloom, and it scared the shit out of me about what they were going to become. There was Rush, Jesse Helms, Pat Roberts, Pat Buchanan, Gingrich, etc. Mean, racist, lying shitbags was their brand to me, and I felt like it was coming into ascendency. So, I was turned off very early and rejected my Republican rearing.

Born in 1941, raised after WW2...they liked Ike.

Picture2.png

Born in 1951...Great Society, Civil Rights, Nixon is a crook:

Picture3.png

Born in 1961...Carter was a pussy but now it's morning in America again and we're the Thirtysomething Yuppies.

Picture4.png

Born in 1971...see above for my cohort description.

Picture5.png

Born in 1981...Clinton years, followed by 9/11 and uber patriotism but realizing the Iraq War kinda sucks.

Picture7.png

Born in 1991...War, Great Recession, Obama & Hope.

Picture8.png

I guess I can see how some of the early Millennials (the 1981 crowd), who weren't fully bought-in on Obama in 2012 could've been swayed by Maga. I guess like y'all said, the divide for them could really come down to education and rural/urban split. I'm just glad to see that some of my Gen Xers, at least in Iowa, may be coming to their fucking senses.

Man, I hope they update this thing after these elections, because it's fucking fascinating.

 

 

 

I'm in that last graph, there's no universe I ever go back to the center.

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

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23 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I was born exactly between the 61 and 71 group, in 1966.  My "personal graph" mirrors the 1971.  I'm 54 now so, you could go ahead and trend that line well into the liberal side.

Huh, I guess I'm the "if you're a Republican at 20 you have no heart, if you're a liberal at 50, you have no brain.   

I blame hornfans, shag and surly, respectively. 

Born in 67 and fit the same profile. Lifelong Republican now swinging way to the left. I can live with it.

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

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21 minutes ago, The Dog said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

538's election forecast - I'd recommend looking at the days until the election rather than the actual date since election day was November 8th that year. 

So this time 4 years ago it was 85-15 Hillary. The Comey letter hit 2 days later.

Well thanks for ruining my night

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bolverk

bolverk 29694

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6 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

I'm in that last graph, there's no universe I ever go back to the center.

Yeah, I don't see it happening either.

The '91ers (Young Millennials) know they're fucked by the system and are pissed. Now, imagine the '01ers (Gen Z but not graphed) who are 19 years old now. How do they see this world going and the lens they through which they view Trump and the GOP? Just ask former GOP Gen X dad, @Brisketexan, what his kids think and I'm sure he'll be happy to share his treatise on the subject.

I can tell you that my 20yo daughter once told my parents to their faces that they were racists a few years ago if that's any indication.

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6569

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I thought it was a muzzle, or that wearing a mask was like stopping mosquitoes with a chain-link fence.  Or it was a sign of strength?  I thought no mask=power?  
You can tell there is no one of any value left on the Trump train. The branding is all over the place and contradictory to whatever was posited minutes prior. Like Trump. Mask users infected 85% of time, mask good, no mask required, Aha no mask by nasty reporter
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

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20 minutes ago, The Dog said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

538's election forecast - I'd recommend looking at the days until the election rather than the actual date since election day was November 8th that year. 

So this time 4 years ago it was 85-15 Hillary. The Comey letter hit 2 days later.

Different election; different candidates.

Really, I don't find that instructive at all.  The thing that stands out about 2016 was how volatile it was.  And to some degree, that's to be expected when you don't have an incumbent.

What marks 2020 is how steady the race has been.  Trump has never had a very good chance of winning.  And since September 1, his chances have just gotten worse and worse.

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The Dog

The Dog 44066

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Different election; different candidates.

Really, I don't find that instructive at all.  The thing that stands out about 2016 was how volatile it was.  And to some degree, that's to be expected when you don't have an incumbent.

What marks 2020 is how steady the race has been.  Trump has never had a very good chance of winning.  And since September 1, his chances have just gotten worse and worse.

Yeah I wasn't intending to say "OMG 2016 ALL OVER AGAIN" - people need to look at 2016 for what it was and recognize 2020 is different. 

Additionally we have a LOT more votes that have already been cast (as you and I have noted) and so any late surprises just can't have the same impact. That and the small number of undecideds. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105161

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3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Yeah, I don't see it happening either.

The '91ers (Young Millennials) know they're fucked by the system and are pissed. Now, imagine the '01ers (Gen Z but not graphed) who are 19 years old now. How do they see this world going and the lens they through which they view Trump and the GOP? Just ask former GOP Gen X dad, @Brisketexan, what his kids think and I'm sure he'll be happy to share his treatise on the subject.

I can tell you that my 20yo daughter once told my parents to their faces that they were racists a few years ago if that's any indication.

Yeah....dude.....both of my kids, including my more conservative one (the boy) think that the GOP is hot garbage.  Hell, in his case, it's BECAUSE he's a "rules matter" kid.  They both find racism completely fucking abhorrent, and they see right through all the smokescreens and dogwhistles.  The GOP thinks it's clever in disguising them....it's not.  In fact, the reason that "look, we even have a black Congressman!" works on anyone....is that the people who lap it up are racists who are likewise looking for cover.  My kids and their peers?  Nope.  They call bullshit and keep on trucking.

The GOP has a serious problem with race and generations (and they overlap -- the younger generations are less white).  So, their solution is to try to pull up the ladder -- if they can't win elections with ideas and that electorate, then they'll just rig the game.  Which the kids ALSO see through (they know bullshit cheating and unfairness when they see it).

But on those charts....it embarrasses me how much of my generation votes GOP.  I mean, it's not like we fucking matter -- we're the forgotten, irrelevant generation, but still.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14598

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The Boomers were the only generation who got more conservative as they aged but people think that's chiseled in stone by God's own hand.  They didn't really get more conservative, they just remained selfish twats.

Most everyone else gets more socially liberal to some degree and is mixed in with their formative years, which Bolverk covered pretty well.  Born in 74 here and I was a Republican in college but that's back when Republicans were Bob Dole and George HW Bush.  They weren't bat shit like they are now.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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4 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

 

Funny follow up to this. The GOP is already kicking and screaming like orange babies in Nevada and the early voting process isn’t even over yet. I really hope Americans kick these people to the curb. They don’t care about this country or the integrity of the electoral process, they just want us to stfu and let them have all the power.

 

i pray for anyone who willfully supports the GOP.  They must have a huge bullshit filter and actually enjoy being lied too all the time.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52529

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The Boomers were the only generation who got more conservative as they aged but people think that's chiseled in stone by God's own hand.  They didn't really get more conservative, they just remained selfish twats.

Most everyone else gets more socially liberal to some degree and is mixed in with their formative years, which Bolverk covered pretty well.  Born in 74 here and I was a Republican in college but that's back when Republicans were Bob Dole and George HW Bush.  They weren't bat shit like they are now.

‘78 so end of x. Was pretty comfortable in the “compassionate conservative” idea that W was working with as governor and running for prez. 
I don’t feel like I’ve moved much off of that, but the party has moved a ton away from compassion AND conservatism and towards Christian fanaticism and general purpose evil. So now I feel more closely aligned with the democrats/progressives, as much of their ideas are born from goodness- even the batshit crazy ones. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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19 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Yeah, I don't see it happening either.

The '91ers (Young Millennials) know they're fucked by the system and are pissed. Now, imagine the '01ers (Gen Z but not graphed) who are 19 years old now. How do they see this world going and the lens they through which they view Trump and the GOP? Just ask former GOP Gen X dad, @Brisketexan, what his kids think and I'm sure he'll be happy to share his treatise on the subject.

I can tell you that my 20yo daughter once told my parents to their faces that they were racists a few years ago if that's any indication.

Millennials and Zoomers are going to be the two most liberal generations in American history. I hope the Boomers are alive long enough to see us crush the Republican party.

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mchookem

mchookem 16337

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The Boomers were the only generation who got more conservative as they aged but people think that's chiseled in stone by God's own hand.  They didn't really get more conservative, they just remained selfish twats.

Most everyone else gets more socially liberal to some degree and is mixed in with their formative years, which Bolverk covered pretty well.  Born in 74 here and I was a Republican in college but that's back when Republicans were Bob Dole and George HW Bush.  They weren't bat shit like they are now.

yeah, i was just talking to someone the other day about how i joined the Young Republicans my freshman year! 😄 i did vote for Perot, but i started really moving away after W's first term.

funny enough, i was gung ho, rah-rah about Iraq/Afghanistan at first. but Abu Ghraib and us using torture really sickened me, and Cheney's "So?" pushed me over the edge...

i still vote for individuals over platform, but let's just say the current 'individual' republicans haven't done much to bring me back in that fold. i think i'm probably done with the right for good.  

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105161

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Just now, Calihorn said:

Millennials and Zoomers are going to be the two most liberal generations in American history. I hope the Boomers are alive long enough to see us crush the Republican party.

I sure hope so.  I intend to do as Gen Xers do, sit back and have a drink and watch the carnage (because, again, we're the fucking irrelevant generation).

 

64ee6664123bf17197666ca050c31cb1.jpg

 

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4667

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6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Am I color blind or is he?  That's fucking brown.

Color blindness is the least of his problems.  He speaks like a 14 year old girl.  I like to listen to his podcast now and then but I want to rip my ears off when he starts in with his "likes" and "rights?" 

Being old makes one grouchy.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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17 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

 

I don't understand Nate's "polling." Per election project:

Florida has 46.5% Democratic and 33.2% Republican returned ballots.

Iowa is 52.6% Democratic and 30.3% Republican.

Nevada is 46.7% Democratic to 32.4% Republican

There is other less obvious data showing the other tossup state's early voting also leads Democratic by similar margins including Texas.

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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And the woman in the video is apparently running for a seat on the Broward County School Board this election.

I find it really interesting (don’t know if that’s the right word but I can’t think of a better one) how so many of the survivors of the Parkland school shooting have become very prominent and effective activists. I find it inspiring that so many of them have taken the platform from that horrible tragedy to be advocates for good.
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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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6 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Saw my very first trump sign in the neighborhood about a week ago. Was the second trump sign I’ve seen in all of Austin.

Drove by today and it’s gone. Pissed off wife? Unruly neighborhood kids? Nextdoor net posting asshole? 

 

Update for the board. The wife says that someone on Nextdoor posted that a trump sign was found in their trash can and it was NOT their own sign. The mystery is getting closer to being solved...

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G650

G650 14263

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50 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

‘78 so end of x. Was pretty comfortable in the “compassionate conservative” idea that W was working with as governor and running for prez. 
I don’t feel like I’ve moved much off of that, but the party has moved a ton away from compassion AND conservatism and towards Christian fanaticism and general purpose evil. So now I feel more closely aligned with the democrats/progressives, as much of their ideas are born from goodness- even the batshit crazy ones. 

Brother?

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