2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Hiphopopotamos 20869]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They were always white though bro. And they always voted blue. Then they went +9. Weird to me. 

I have family in the Midwest that are UNION lifers who would have spit in your face if you even suggested they'd vote for a Republican - until Trump came along.  All of that white fright has an outlet now.  A savior.  And now they're in the cult of Trump and I have no faith that they'll ever find their way out.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Hiphopopotamos

[Zonahorn 8079]

I hope the lead Democrats are banking up in early vote is big enough

[Zonahorn 8079]

These people are fucking ghouls

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So I guess the blue wall going red also just seems weird to you as well, eh?

No. I’ve always contended it was a one time event bc the Dems nominated a candidate many people had a visceral hatred for. But when they flipped red they did it by a handful of votes- not +10. IA went from reliably blue to a twin of Ohio overnight in one election cycle. I always start my betting analysis with trend and history and expect more of the same. So to see a big swing can be jarring/unexpected/hard to wrap my mind completely around. 
It’s why I argue places like NV and CO and VA are now blue forever- soon to be joined by AZ. Inertia settles in. Habits form. 

Edited October 26, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[DigglerontheHoof 21195]

16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They were always white though bro. And they always voted blue. Then they went +9. Weird to me. 

Fox News and Facebook 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

6 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I have family in the Midwest that are UNION lifers who would have spit in your face if you even suggested they'd vote for a Republican - until Trump came along.  All of that white fright has an outlet now.  A savior.  And now they're in the cult of Trump and I have no faith that they'll ever find their way out.

Yeah- this is my point dude. That’s a pretty big switch to flip overnight. It pretty obviously happened.  The question is how much regret and return to the past happens  up there. I think a lot bc I think a lot of it was just anti Hillary. 

[SydneyCarton 48089]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No. I’ve always contended it was a one time event bc the Dems nominated a candidate many people had a visceral hatred for. But when they flipped red they did it by a handful of votes- not +10. IA went from reliably blue to a twin of Ohio overnight in one election cycle. I always start my betting analysis with trend and history and expect more of the same. So to see a big swing can be jarring/unexpected/hard to wrap my kind completely around. 
It’s why I argue places like NV and CO and VA are now blue forever- soon yo be joined by AZ. Inertia settles in. Habits form. 

The population of Iowa is a little over 3 million people. That's 1.6 million less people than Harris County. And if you're only counting registered voters, it's just a bit over 2 million. The state of Ohio has over 11 million people and 8 million registered voters, 4x Iowa.

When youre dealing with numbers like that, big swings are a lot easier to accomplish. What is it, something like 180k voters needed to change their affiliation?

 

[BradInATX 9208]

7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No. I’ve always contended it was a one time event bc the Dems nominated a candidate many people had a visceral hatred for. But when they flipped red they did it by a handful of votes- not +10. IA went from reliably blue to a twin of Ohio overnight in one election cycle. I always start my betting analysis with trend and history and expect more of the same. So to see a big swing can be jarring/unexpected/hard to wrap my mind completely around. 
It’s why I argue places like NV and CO and VA are now blue forever- soon to be joined by AZ. Inertia settles in. Habits form. 

 

There's an archetype of semi-rural white people who don't really know much about black people but thought Obama was well-spoken enough to go ahead and vote for, but have since been brain-rotted by Sinclair and Fox News. That archetype is most prevalent in the midwest. Many of those people are out of reach going forward.

You're right in that NV/CO/VA/AZ are probably blue going forward. Texas eventually. And it's only an eventuality that WI goes red permanently like Ohio has. MI and PA - we'll see. Depends on the growth of Detroit and Philly vs. the suburbs and exurbs. 

[Red Five 40856]

I had a dream last night that on election night Biden had 330 EVs, and around midnight Trump gave a speech where he called the election a hoax, and that the real numbers show that Trump won. That's probably not too far off from what will happen. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Red Five said:

I had a dream last night that on election night Biden had 330 EVs, and around midnight Trump gave a speech where he called the election a hoax, and that the real numbers show that Trump won. That's probably not too far off from what will happen. 

I've got 330 in the electoral map prediction thrad. let's fuckin go!

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The population of Iowa is a little over 3 million people. That's 1.6 million less people than Harris County. And if you're only counting registered voters, it's just a bit over 2 million. The state of Ohio has over 11 million people and 8 million registered voters, 4x Iowa.

When youre dealing with numbers like that, big swings are a lot easier to accomplish. What is it, something like 180k voters needed to change their affiliation?

 

Sure. But there’s less voters to change that affiliation bc there’s more cows and hogs than people up there seemingly. The rurals just went all in on Trump in 2016. They started voting like an ethnic minority group. Pretty staggering stuff. 
Maybe we should have expected this all along, as white people trend from majority to plurality maybe they will vote way more like an ethnic voting bloc. 
I hope not bc I don’t like what the existence of ethnic voting blocs says about our society (and I’m not blaming the ethnic

group for doing it rather the majority group for creating the system that makes that seem necessary) but whites voting more monolithically does say something that’s not good for the country. 

[SydneyCarton 48089]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. But there’s less voters to change that affiliation bc there’s more cows and hogs than people up there seemingly. The rurals just went all in on Trump in 2016. They started voting like an ethnic minority group. Pretty staggering stuff. 
Maybe we should have expected this all along, as white people trend from majority to plurality maybe they will vote way more like an ethnic voting bloc. 
I hope not bc I don’t like what the existence of ethnic voting blocs says about our society (and I’m not blaming the ethnic

group for doing it rather the majority group for creating the system that makes that seem necessary) but whites voting more monolithically does say something that’s not good for the country. 

I mean. I guess you haven't been paying attention to the last 4, hell the last 12 years once Obama was elected. There's not a lot of good to say about the direction of our country. 

[Snake Diggity 4622]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I had a dream last night that on election night Biden had 330 EVs, and around midnight Trump gave a speech where he called the election a hoax, and that the real numbers show that Trump won. That's probably not too far off from what will happen. 

538 currently has the prediction at 334.  In that scenario, I think Trump could contest FL, NC, and AZ, but he would still need another state to contest to prevent Biden from getting to 270.  One of MN, WI, MI, and PA would have to be within 5 points for him to have any legitimate reason to stall the election call.  And I do think a Biden EV total of 305-334 is by far the most likely outcome.
 

Obviously it would suck to hear Trump and his people whine in the face of such a large gap, but far better than the next level down, which is the scenario where FL, NC, and AZ are close but red, and narrow Biden wins in PA and WI become the difference in the election.  The odds of that are decreasing, but it’s still possible and represents the bulk of the ~7-8% chance Trump has of winning.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

There's an archetype of semi-rural white people who don't really know much about black people but thought Obama was well-spoken enough to go ahead and vote for, but have since been brain-rotted by Sinclair and Fox News. That archetype is most prevalent in the midwest. Many of those people are out of reach going forward.

You're right in that NV/CO/VA/AZ are probably blue going forward. Texas eventually. And it's only an eventuality that WI goes red permanently like Ohio has. MI and PA - we'll see. Depends on the growth of Detroit and Philly vs. the suburbs and exurbs. 

Your post started out so well and ended so well that I gave you a rep for it- but the whole Fox News/Sinclair thing is an oversimplification that blames one group of people over all else. I think you can also add in wokeness, cancel culture and massive progressivism as determinative factors as well. That group you are talking about doesn’t like that kind of thing bc they find it obnoxious, I think. 
Social safety nets, government intervention, tax the rich (hell eat the rich for a lot of them) is just fine from a policy standpoint but don’t fuck around with that new age nonsense. Don’t kneel down on the field or I will flip the channel on you kind of thing. I think? Maybe?  Especially the non- college educated among them? 
I’m guessing. But it could be as simple as they hated Hillary. 

[GRHorn 105]

His stutter came back. You know Jill was digging her nails into his leg trying to correct him. 

 

[TexasEd 8066]

10 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

63-32 sounds like a Texas-OU score under Mack Brown, and not in a good way.

No, Texas never scored above 21 in any of those routs. 

Edited October 26, 2020 by TexasEd

[Pancho 44768]

Yes, pointing out inequities and fighting for equality for everyone is obnoxious. 

Got it. 

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21195]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

His stutter came back. You know Jill was digging her nails into his leg trying to correct him. 

 

You really and truly are a piece of shit cowardly cunt.  

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

538 currently has the prediction at 334.  In that scenario, I think Trump could contest FL, NC, and AZ, but he would still need another state to contest to prevent Biden from getting to 270.  One of MN, WI, MI, and PA would have to be within 5 points for him to have any legitimate reason to stall the election call.  And I do think a Biden EV total of 305-334 is by far the most likely outcome.
 

Obviously it would suck to hear Trump and his people whine in the face of such a large gap, but far better than the next level down, which is the scenario where FL, NC, and AZ are close but red, and narrow Biden wins in PA and WI become the difference in the election.  The odds of that are decreasing, but it’s still possible and represents the bulk of the ~7-8% chance Trump has of winning.

Spot on. Only thing left out is the chance of Biden at 400 is greater than the Trump chance of winning. 

[GRHorn 105]

3 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

You really and truly are a piece of shit cowardly cunt.  

I get the piece of shit and cunt from someone like you. What’s cowardly though?

[Snake Diggity 4622]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Spot on. Only thing left out is the chance of Biden at 400 is greater than the Trump chance of winning. 

Not sure I agree with that.  400 means Texas plus 2 of OH, IA, and GA.  I don’t think the odds of that are higher than 10%, probably closer to 5%.  Now, Biden 400+ probably has much higher odds than Biden conceding the election on 11/3.  The bulk of Trumps odds of winning a 2nd term hinge on him winning thru the courts.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

10 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

great article, but this one line reminded me of something:

 

 

from one of my favorites, "forget all the myths the media has created about the white house.  the truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand."

I've been saying this since 2016 and it still kills me that the media and others keep treating this admin like they are a) deserving of the benefit of the doubt in some way b) should be treated like a normal admin (they refused to use the word "LIE" for like 2 years) and/or c) that the obvious crimes can't be happening because they are just too obvious.  They are stupid people with power that are bad at crime.  Everything that it appears is happening right in front of us is happening.

[DigglerontheHoof 21195]

Just now, GRHorn said:

I get the piece of shit and cunt from someone like you. What’s cowardly though?

Your proclamation that , in spite of gargling his tiny balls at every turn, you aren’t voting for him.

you know you are you’re just too big of a pussy to admit it.  Own it, you quivering penis wrinkle.

[BradInATX 9208]

9 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

538 currently has the prediction at 334.

What's their map for that? I can't seem to find it. Hillary + MI/PA/WI/AZ/FL/NC, plus one of the weird split states? That's what I've got, but I didn't really bother changing ME or NE because that's splitting too many hairs for my effort level.

It does seem the most likely, with Georgia and NC being the red and blue states with closest margins.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Yes, pointing out inequities and fighting for equality for everyone is obnoxious. 

Got it. 

 

That’s not at all what I’m saying and I think you know that, but whatever. There’s non need to talk to any of those people especially when they voted for you for a million years though, right?  Because excesses going on with Antifa and Chaz and idiots calling for Van Jones firing (from the left- because he says 99 times out of 100 trump is wrong and I fight him like hell but when he gets one right I will stand and applaud) don’t exist or are totally a good look and helpful for bringing together this country. 
there’s nothing that could possibly be better messaged or improved from the left to gain more votes or convince people who aren’t necessarily opposed to you. And there’s in no way a sense that if you dissent from even the smallest group think that you won’t be cancelled. 
I have no idea how much any of this is driving them away from you- when as I said once upon a time- going back to FDR, they were in your coalition and that’s when your coalition pretty much dominated America. 
We will see, but if you note my post literally one before this I’m castigating the white majority so... 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4740]

21 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

There's an archetype of semi-rural white people who don't really know much about black people but thought Obama was well-spoken enough to go ahead and vote for, but have since been brain-rotted by Sinclair and Fox News. That archetype is most prevalent in the midwest. Many of those people are out of reach going forward.

You're right in that NV/CO/VA/AZ are probably blue going forward. Texas eventually. And it's only an eventuality that WI goes red permanently like Ohio has. MI and PA - we'll see. Depends on the growth of Detroit and Philly vs. the suburbs and exurbs. 

I have a fear that WI is already permanently red, admittedly based mostly on anecdotal evidence. I have a close friend from Waukesha county, classic midwestern family. She tells me all of her family and friends from back home remain Trump supporters. Of course she now lives in Brooklyn and is a New York state voter, which tells a story of one of the electoral problems facing dems. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Reynolds Woodcock said:

I have a fear that WI is already permanently red, admittedly based mostly on anecdotal evidence. I have a close friend from Waukesha county, classic midwestern family. She tells me all of her family and friends from back home remain Trump supporters. Of course she now lives in Brooklyn and is a New York state voter, which tells a story of one of the electoral problems facing dems. 

Yeah, it's very possible that it goes blue this election and never again. Blue basically traded WI for AZ which is an even trade.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

I had a dream last night that on election night Biden had 330 EVs, and around midnight Trump gave a speech where he called the election a hoax, and that the real numbers show that Trump won. That's probably not too far off from what will happen. 

I fully expect this, no matter the EV count.  Shit, even if it showed he won by a few, he'd say it was fake because he actually won by a landslide.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

Just now, BradInATX said:

Yeah, it's very possible that it goes blue this election and never again. Blue basically traded WI for AZ which is an even trade.

IA for Nevada. The GOP forgot to get Something in the trades for VA and CO... 

[wildcat09 29353]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s not at all what I’m saying and I think you know that, but whatever. There’s non need to talk to any of those people especially when they voted for you for a million years though, right?  Because excesses going on with Antifa and Chaz and idiots calling for Van Jones firing (from the left- because he says 99 times out of 100 trump is wrong and I fight him like hell but when he gets one right I will stand and applaud) don’t exist or are totally a good look and helpful for bringing together this country. 
there’s nothing that could possibly be better messaged or improved from the left to gain more votes or convince people who aren’t necessarily opposed to you. And there’s in no way a sense that if you dissent from even the smallest group think that you won’t be cancelled. 
I have no idea how much any of this is driving them away from you- when as I said once upon a time- going back to FDR, they were in your coalition and that’s when your coalition pretty much dominated America. 
We will see, but if you note my post literally one before this I’m castigating the white majority so... 

How many people do you think give a shit about some internet randos calling for Van Jones to be fired?

[Hagbard Celine 10859]

338+ is jim-jones-flavored koolaid.  it would make the coup attempt very difficult.  i hope all of you are on to something that's not consumed in a glass pipe.

i assume many of you saw michael moore over the weekend.  we need the tsunami.  the first rule of the tsunami is don't talk about the tsunami.

it would be better to come in at 290ish with 6-figure margins in the swing states, then 338+ on 10000-vote margins nationwide.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

How many people do you think give a shit about some internet randos calling for Van Jones to be fired?

In and of itself?  Nobody. As part of a larger thing and “another example”. Some? 2%?  3%? 5%?  That can turn elections. Not as much so when Trump is the justified punching bag. 
people have an inherent sense of fairness   They don’t want to hear that someone is all bad. That’s my sense. Maybe I’m wrong but it’s off putting to lots of folks I think. It goes against how we were raised as kids- to see and look for fairness. 

Edited October 26, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[gmr548 16576]

His stutter came back. You know Jill was digging her nails into his leg trying to correct him. 
 

Wow you’ve really changed my mind with this one. I’ll be going to the polls today begging to change my vote to Donald Trump, who’s absolutely never had a gaffe, misstep, or even outright lie that remotely approaches this.

Thanks GRHorn, you’re a scholar and a patriot.

[Hagbard Celine 10859]

where is the electoral map thread?

[The Dog 44041]

YouGov/Cougar High Poll

Shows Trump +5 in Texas. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

In and of itself?  Nobody. As part of a larger thing and “another example”. Some? 2%?  3%? 5%?  That can turn elections. Not as much so when Trump is the justified punching bag. 
people have an inherent sense of fairness   They don’t want to hear that someone is all bad. That’s my sense. Maybe I’m wrong but it’s off putting to lots of folks I think. It goes against how we were raised as kids- to see and look for fairness. 

Yet Trump is still all bad.  The 1/100 Van Jones references isn't due to any intentionally good or kind action by Trump.  Its simply the blind squirrel finding a nut.  The left picks that fight with Van Jones because they believe that Trump deserves no credit even in the 1/100 times that Trump accidentally gets something right.

And I think you can see that too.  You probably like Trump's SCOTUS picks, but do you think Trump was being kind or good to you when he was picking them?  No, the federalist society and judicial watch instead blew Trump and laid cover for all sorts of terrible things so that he would choose their picks.

[Snake Diggity 4622]

25 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What's their map for that? I can't seem to find it. Hillary + MI/PA/WI/AZ/FL/NC, plus one of the weird split states? That's what I've got, but I didn't really bother changing ME or NE because that's splitting too many hairs for my effort level.

It does seem the most likely, with Georgia and NC being the red and blue states with closest margins.

go to 270towin, select the 538 map, toggle the toss ups light red.  Biden wins NC, FL, AZ, and all the blue leaning Midwest states.  

[gmr548 16576]

I have a fear that WI is already permanently red, admittedly based mostly on anecdotal evidence. I have a close friend from Waukesha county, classic midwestern family. She tells me all of her family and friends from back home remain Trump supporters. Of course she now lives in Brooklyn and is a New York state voter, which tells a story of one of the electoral problems facing dems. 

Trump got fewer votes in WI than Romney did. It’s a couple points to the right of the nation right now. That is hardly permanent GOP and we don’t know how voters that are currently on either side are going to behave. Do low propensity voters that support trump just stop voting? How many suburban former GOP types hold a grudge against the GOP vs going home?

Longer term, metro Milwaukee and especially metro Madison drive the population growth of the state. Those rural areas aren’t getting any bigger.

It’s likely going to remain a swing state with a slight GOP lean for the foreseeable future.

[Hagbard Celine 10859]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

YouGov/Cougar High Poll

Shows Trump +5 in Texas. 

the 538 average is now -1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/

[gmr548 16576]

IA for Nevada. The GOP forgot to get Something in the trades for VA and CO... 

Ohio. Possibly Michigan down the line.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yet Trump is still all bad.  The 1/100 Van Jones references isn't due to any intentionally good or kind action by Trump.  Its simply the blind squirrel finding a nut.  The left picks that fight with Van Jones because they believe that Trump deserves no credit even in the 1/100 times that Trump accidentally gets something right.

And I think you can see that too.  You probably like Trump's SCOTUS picks, but do you think Trump was being kind or good to you when he was picking them?  No, the federalist society and judicial watch instead blew Trump and laid cover for all sorts of terrible things so that he would choose their picks.

Yeah- I loathe trump, but I said I will root for him to do stuff I like and root for him not to do stuff I don’t like- just like I have for every president in my lifetime. But yeah- I don’t think it’s some inherent goodness on his part- it’s transactional like every relationship he has- no doubt. 
But if you say everything he does is bad it just doesn’t fit how most people see the world I don’t think. 

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Ohio. Possibly Michigan down the line.

Yep.

 

@Hagbard Celine here's the electoral thread: https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/16934-surly-official-2020-electoral-map-predictions/

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Ohio. Possibly Michigan down the line.

Michigan down the line maybe. But they haven’t paid that out yet and it’s not a fair trade for CO and VA. They need PA thrown in too in order to have a chance when AZ and maybe NC are gone. 

[BradInATX 9208]

11 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

go to 270towin, select the 538 map, toggle the toss ups light red.  Biden wins NC, FL, AZ, and all the blue leaning Midwest states.  

Thanks. That's the map I think we're going to get as well. NC and FL are going to be close, though.

[Mole 4330]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- I loathe trump, but I said I will root for him to do stuff I like and root for him not to do stuff I don’t like- just like I have for every president in my lifetime. But yeah- I don’t think it’s some inherent goodness on his part- it’s transactional like every relationship he has- no doubt. 
But if you say everything he does is bad it just doesn’t fit how most people see the world I don’t think. 

Everything he does isn’t bad, but because of the transactional and divisive way he “leads,” everything he does is destructive to good social and political order. This is ultimately bad — worse even than whatever good things he might accomplish.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

Just now, Mole said:

Everything he does isn’t bad, but because of the transactional and divisive way he “leads,” everything he does is destructive to good social and political order. This is ultimately bad — worse even than whatever good things he might accomplish.

That’s what Van Jones said about black voters and Trump and I thought it was the smartest thing I’ve heard on race in America since Trump came along. Agree 1000 percent with you and it goes beyond Trumps relationship with any one group and relates to the country as a whole. 
But that’s not what the media is saying about him. At all.  It’s all bad. 

[Hiphopopotamos 20869]

The Economist's latest projection has Biden up to 96%.  They have ~ 370 electoral votes as the most common outcome - but the projection is 350. 

 

We'll see how that moves after the NYT Texas poll comes out this afternoon.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Hiphopopotamos

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

5 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

The Economist's latest projection has Biden up to 96%.  They have ~ 370 electoral votes as the most common outcome - but the projection is 350. 

 

We'll see how that moves after the NYT Texas poll comes out this afternoon.

probably means this is what they see is most common

 

[BradInATX 9208]

^^ that's right, and their 350 projection is the 334 map plus Georgia.

However, it's my belief that if Biden wins Ohio, he will also win Texas. From what I see and some rudimentary numbers I pulled last week, Ohio is a couple of points redder than Texas. If Biden wins Ohio I think we're looking at a 400+ Electoral Vote wipeout. But I don't believe Biden is going to win Ohio (or Texas).

Trump's going to win Texas by somewhere between 1-2% and Ohio between 3-4%, IMO.

Edited October 26, 2020 by BradInATX

[Mdhorn 5949]

57 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Your post started out so well and ended so well that I gave you a rep for it- but the whole Fox News/Sinclair thing is an oversimplification that blames one group of people over all else. I think you can also add in wokeness, cancel culture and massive progressivism as determinative factors as well. That group you are talking about doesn’t like that kind of thing bc they find it obnoxious, I think. 
Social safety nets, government intervention, tax the rich (hell eat the rich for a lot of them) is just fine from a policy standpoint but don’t fuck around with that new age nonsense. Don’t kneel down on the field or I will flip the channel on you kind of thing. I think? Maybe?  Especially the non- college educated among them? 
I’m guessing. But it could be as simple as they hated Hillary. 

If woke and kneeling on the field swayed votes, then those people are looking for something and would find it either with or without woke and/or kneeling.  Kneeling during the anthem to contest police shootings of minorities, to which they are no part of, means nothing to them unless they want it to.  Finding offense in Black Lives Matter is another bs issue for them.