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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19152

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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

^^ that's right, and their 350 projection is the 334 map plus Georgia.

However, it's my belief that if Biden wins Ohio, he will also win Texas. From what I see and some rudimentary numbers I pulled last week, Ohio is a couple of points redder than Texas. But I don't believe Biden is going to win Ohio (or Texas).

I think that’s right. And I think GA is shaded a bit too darkly blue, but yeah- basically my contention at 400 is that map and ohio and texas being tied together and toppling over for Biden. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48179

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3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

probably means this is what they see is most common

Jg2Zz.png

 

 

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

^^ that's right, and their 350 projection is the 334 map plus Georgia.

However, it's my belief that if Biden wins Ohio, he will also win Texas. From what I see and some rudimentary numbers I pulled last week, Ohio is a couple of points redder than Texas. But I don't believe Biden is going to win Ohio (or Texas).

Yeah. This map is a fucking fundamental ass whipping, followed up by a curb stomping, and then setting the body on fire and roasting hot dogs and marshmellows over it. I absolutely don't think it fucking happens, but it would certainly be a complete repudiation of Trumpism. 

Not to delve into statistics, because fuck math. but having Biden win Florida, GA, Iowa, Ohio and NC and losing only Texas (I'm not including PA even though it still scares the fuck out me.mack brown) means that Biden basically goes 5/6 on what will generously call Coin Flip states. That just seems unlikely. Bu sure, I can fap to that. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think that’s right. And I think GA is shaded a bit too darkly blue, but yeah- basically my contention at 400 is that map and ohio and texas being tied together and toppling over for Biden. 

i just clicked to get it red/blue. shade doesn't mean anything.

 

economists #2 most likely map:

G31k4.png

200.gif

 

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5987

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50 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

338+ is jim-jones-flavored koolaid.  it would make the coup attempt very difficult.  i hope all of you are on to something that's not consumed in a glass pipe.

i assume many of you saw michael moore over the weekend.  we need the tsunami.  the first rule of the tsunami is don't talk about the tsunami.

it would be better to come in at 290ish with 6-figure margins in the swing states, then 338+ on 10000-vote margins nationwide.

But he would also be contesting swing states by saying he won all of them and that wouldn't be true.  Not that it would matter but close doesn't mean they all go to Trump.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19152

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1 minute ago, Mdhorn said:

If woke and kneeling on the field swayed votes, then those people are looking for something and would find it either with or without woke and/or kneeling.  Kneeling during the anthem to contest police shootings of minorities, to which they are no part of, means nothing to them unless they want it to.  Finding offense in Black Lives Matter is another bs issue for them.   

Maybe so. But I think there’s a function of putting it front and center that turns some people out against you that wouldn’t otherwise. 
from the Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/hate-wokeness-vote-biden/616845/
 

it essentially makes the argument that Trump is correct about two things the left is doing (that I’m calling out here) wrong/poorly/ but if you vote for Biden that this stuff will go away bc then Dems will focus on beating it back. 
We will see. Thanks my hope for a Biden presidency anyway. My hope for an Obama presidency was racial healing. Got that wrong. I don’t know that I had any hope for a Trump presidency or there than him not being as much him as he is- and that hope didn’t happen either. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

I’m very curious how these polls account for the dramatic youth turnout in TX.  

Theoretically, the ones we start getting this week should be a little better than older ones, because they're going to start picking up people who have actually voted and their Likely Voter models will be improved.

You can see it in 2016. Look at the Clinton/Trump polls in the last week or two of the election, every single one was in the Hillary 2-6% range, which was fairly accurate. 

2016-1.JPG.993eca7b901d7194579ad4e97910b50c.JPG

 

 

But if you look at older polls, you'll see some really bad, overly optimistic Hillary results.

2016-2.JPG.1f983029b8e4a66c5f3fcaa36a224424.JPG

 

In theory, we should get more accurate polling in the polls released this week and at the 11th hour next week. In theory. I don't assume anything will follow conventional wisdom with Donald Trump.

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kevwun

kevwun 15913

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9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Man, with that big a switch to Biden you'd like to see a lot more space between Seikaly and Taylor. Fuck. 

Lot of Gary Johnson voters in that district apparently.  The Libertarian candidate is pulling a sizeable chunk of votes.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46141

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Towards the demographic breakdown:  imagine you are a white Iowan, and we compare your experience to that of a white Texan (data are not 2020 current but are at least representative):

Ia.TotalPopulationTexas-Pie-chart-b

 

 

So, the white Iowan considers an 88.4% - 5% white-to-Hispanic demographic ratio "the norm".  As that Hispanic population grows, at what point do you think Iowans would start to notice?  What if the Hispanic population doubled?  All other things remaining equal, the white demographic would drop from about 88% to 84%.  Is that noticeable?  Probably not.  Twice as many Hispanics would likely start to change perception, though, and that's where the fear comes from.

In Texas, the white non-Hispanic demographic has steadily dropped from a peak of ~ 75% in 1950, and now sits at 45%.  That is a seismic shift, and it perfectly explains the white fright that has been building for decades.  This is only now starting to happen in the upper midwest.

I think such a shift probably drives votes to the right early on, but eventually the raw percentages catch up and the minority voting block becomes not only a threat but a plurality.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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here's a theory and I'm not sure I've got my head around it all the way:  economists "most likely" distribution we were going off may be too favorable to biden because you basically get to double the frequency of all the maps in the middle of the bell curve because you get one with ME02 and without NE02, and vice versa.  At the tails of the bell curve, those won't come up twice because they'd be going the same way.

now that i'm typing that out, there might be multiple of those.  maps with AZ but not WI+NE02 and vice versa. 

 

basically, i think i'm saying the curve that the economist has shouldn't be thought of as a normal distribution bell curve.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19152

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6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Towards the demographic breakdown:  imagine you are a white Iowan, and we compare your experience to that of a white Texan (data are not 2020 current but are at least representative):

Ia.TotalPopulationTexas-Pie-chart-b

 

 

So, the white Iowan considers an 88.4% - 5% white-to-Hispanic demographic ratio "the norm".  As that Hispanic population grows, at what point do you think Iowans would start to notice?  What if the Hispanic population doubled?  All other things remaining equal, the white demographic would drop from about 88% to 84%.  Is that noticeable?  Probably not.  Twice as many Hispanics would likely start to change perception, though, and that's where the fear comes from.

In Texas, the white non-Hispanic demographic has steadily dropped from a peak of ~ 75% in 1950, and now sits at 45%.  That is a seismic shift, and it perfectly explains the white fright that has been building for decades.  This is only now starting to happen in the upper midwest.

I think such a shift probably drives votes to the right early on, but eventually the raw percentages catch up and the minority voting block becomes not only a threat but a plurality.

Conceivable. That matches white voters voting more liberal the more of them there are. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52604

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10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Towards the demographic breakdown:  imagine you are a white Iowan, and we compare your experience to that of a white Texan (data are not 2020 current but are at least representative):

Ia.TotalPopulationTexas-Pie-chart-b

 

 

So, the white Iowan considers an 88.4% - 5% white-to-Hispanic demographic ratio "the norm".  As that Hispanic population grows, at what point do you think Iowans would start to notice?  What if the Hispanic population doubled?  All other things remaining equal, the white demographic would drop from about 88% to 84%.  Is that noticeable?  Probably not.  Twice as many Hispanics would likely start to change perception, though, and that's where the fear comes from.

In Texas, the white non-Hispanic demographic has steadily dropped from a peak of ~ 75% in 1950, and now sits at 45%.  That is a seismic shift, and it perfectly explains the white fright that has been building for decades.  This is only now starting to happen in the upper midwest.

I think such a shift probably drives votes to the right early on, but eventually the raw percentages catch up and the minority voting block becomes not only a threat but a plurality.

I don’t know where you pulled that Texas chart from, but it feels kind of subversively racist that the black group is the only one pluralized.  They don’t say whites or Hispanics, only blacks. Just caught me funny since there’s no reason for it to be that way. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t know where you pulled that Texas chart from, but it feels kind of subversively racist that the black group is the only one pluralized.  They don’t say whites or Hispanics, only blacks. Just caught me funny sense there’s no reason for it to be that way. 

 

Fixed it for you:

chart.png.1d93dabeac2c85675db9ee362439c407.png

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46141

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3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t know where you pulled that Texas chart from, but it feels kind of subversively racist that the black group is the only one pluralized.  They don’t say whites or Hispanics, only blacks. Just caught me funny since there’s no reason for it to be that way. 

Yeah, I saw that.  They should at least balance it with "whiteys".

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gmr548

gmr548 16617

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Is there anything more annoying than "I think ______ candidate will win _______ state because I've seen a bunch of signs in my neighborhood". 

“I think Texas wins the big 12 because we’ve heard a lot of good things out of camp. This is the year Herman’s team really turns the corner”

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G650

G650 14277

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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

If trump wins California, I will begin the process of moving to Vancouver or Zurich. That’ll be enough Americaning for me. 

If you go Zurich, email me, I will be right down the Autobahn in Lugano.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48179

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30 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Is there anything more annoying than "I think ______ candidate will win _______ state because I've seen a bunch of signs in my neighborhood". 

I’m going to go with “Having a racist POS as the president the United States and tearing our country apart” but I get what you’re saying. 

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