2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think it's that they're relying on fake polls.  I think they're relying on very real math.

They need both PA and FL.  They're behind in both.  But they're behind a lot further in PA than they are in FL.  And they only have the resources to fight in one or the other.

If they win Florida but lose Pennsylvania, it really doesn't matter.  So they're better off assuming that there's a polling error in Florida and that it will work itself out, and focusing everything on PA at this point.  Because conceding Pennsylvania isn't a viable option when every poll shows them down 5.

Yep. That's exactly what they're doing. I tried to explain it awhile back, but you put it much better. They're retreating from states that are close and pouring money into more dire states. They're basically trying the real life version of going to 538's map and clicking Pennsylvania blue. Unfortunately their rallies in PA aren't going to impact Florida's numbers like what happens on the 538 map.

They're in straight up hail mary mode.

[Goredho 17419]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

Straight to my veins

Could mean they have reason to believe Florida is in the bag.

[Herpa Derpa 6131]

32 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They do.

The only question is the price.

The same as always.  Good people have to act.  

[SydneyCarton 48170]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think it's that they're relying on fake polls.  I think they're relying on very real math.

They need both PA and FL.  They're behind in both.  But they're behind a lot further in PA than they are in FL.  And they only have the resources to fight in one or the other.

If they win Florida but lose Pennsylvania, it really doesn't matter.  So they're better off assuming that there's a polling error in Florida and that it will work itself out, and focusing everything on PA at this point.  Because conceding Pennsylvania isn't a viable option when every poll shows them down 5.

 

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Yep. That's exactly what they're doing. I tried to explain it awhile back, but you put it much better. They're retreating from states that are close and pouring money into more dire states. They're basically trying the real life version of going to 538's map and clicking Pennsylvania blue. Unfortunately their rallies in PA aren't going to impact Florida's numbers like what happens on the 538 map.

They're in straight up hail mary mode.

The problem with LL's post, and here, which I brought up earlier, is that your scenario makes perfect sense...except they're pulling money out of Florida and pouring it into PA, OH, MI, and MN. Shouldn't that be leaving half that money in FL and putting half of it in PA?  I don't understand using very limited resources on MI and MN at this point. That's what has be scratching my head. Otherwise that move makes sense. 

[Brisketexan 105334]

6 minutes ago, thepop said:

RCP sure is putting a lot of weight into these republican pollsters. Florida is now in Trumps column and all races are generally narrower. They’re either way off or they’re the only ones correct.

 

2 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Could mean they have reason to believe Florida is in the bag.

 

Sorry.  I'm just not buying any of the supposed certainty in the polls.  There's enough play in the steering wheel for us to still go careening off the cliff.  The Biden campaign needs to be relentless and running strong plays everywhere that matters, all the time.....and it still might not be enough.

[Pato del Muerto 52598]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

I think they are just broke and can't challenge Bloombergs money

That money is better spent on post election lawyer fees. They will need some up front money before they will let him run a tab to later walk after he accuses them of not doing their jobs. 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

The problem with LL's post, and here, which I brought up earlier, is that your scenario makes perfect sense...except they're pulling money out of Florida and pouring it into PA, OH, MI, and MN. Shouldn't that be leaving half that money in FL and putting half of it in PA?  I don't understand using very limited resources on MI and MN at this point. That's what has be scratching my head. Otherwise that move makes sense. 

 

They're probably feeding Don a bunch of shitty inaccurate polls to make him feel good, so it's hard to tell what he and his "strategists" are looking at. 

But let's just say he's looking at a PA poll that shows him down 4, and a Florida poll that shows him down 1, both with margins of error of 3. If both are must-win, it does seemingly make sense that you'd try to move PA a couple of points to get both states within the margin of error, vs. go half-ass on both and probably still leave PA out of reach. 

Michigan, not sure - probably in the same bucket as PA. He thinks he can pull close enough for polling error to strike again like 2016. 

Minnesota I have no clue. He has no chance there.

[gmr548 16615]

From the article, they are putting everything they have into Michigan, Minnesota, Penn, and Ohio

Pulling out of Florida is really, really stupid for Trump. Chasing Minnesota is very dumb too. I therefore support these moves.

[Goredho 17419]

 

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Sorry.  I'm just not buying any of the supposed certainty in the polls.  There's enough play in the steering wheel for us to still go careening off the cliff.  The Biden campaign needs to be relentless and running strong plays everywhere that matters, all the time.....and it still might not be enough.

I meant team Trump could feel like they have Florida in the bag.  If you have more problems than cash to throw at them, you would direct the money away from where it isn't as needed.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That money is better spent on post election lawyer fees. They will need some up front money before they will let him run a tab to later walk after he accuses them of not doing their jobs. 

nah.  that is the best contingency fee case in the world.  if you win, you get to be a part of the biggest grift in history

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Goredho said:

 

I meant team Trump could feel like they have Florida in the bag.  If you have more problems than cash to throw at them, you would direct the money away from where it isn't as needed.

I think it's more that from a game theory or strategy perspective, they are forced to assume Florida is in the bag, even if it's not. Because if they're actually down 2-3 points in Florida, they're down 10 in the midwest. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by BradInATX

[Tuco 5077]

14 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think it's that they're relying on fake polls.  I think they're relying on very real math.

They need both PA and FL.  They're behind in both.  But they're behind a lot further in PA than they are in FL.  And they only have the resources to fight in one or the other.

If they win Florida but lose Pennsylvania, it really doesn't matter.  So they're better off assuming that there's a polling error in Florida and that it will work itself out, and focusing everything on PA at this point.  Because conceding Pennsylvania isn't a viable option when every poll shows them down 5.

I'm still surprised Trump is okaying it. 

The great thing about Bloomberg's campaign is that he is attacking Trump where Trump will be living in 3 months (god willing) and where one of his few successful resorts is.  It's personal.  "If your enemy is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him." Trump has shown the tendency to view states as either pro-Trump and anti-Trump, and the idea of him living out his post-presidency in an anti-Trump state is fucking delicious.  So, while his campaign may not be relying on bullshit polls, I am willing to bet they are spoonfeeding Trump those polls to keep him from dedicating resources to a bad strategic play. 

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5797]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I think it's more that from a game theory or strategy perspective, they are forced to assume Florida is in the bag, even if it's not. Because if they're actually down 2-3 points in Florida, they're down 10 in the midwest. 

They're not being forced to assume anything. Donald told Florida Man that he's hemorrhaging cash and to clean this shit up, then he bounced up north 

[Blotto 23575]

27 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think it's that they're relying on fake polls.  I think they're relying on very real math.

They need both PA and FL.  They're behind in both.  But they're behind a lot further in PA than they are in FL.  And they only have the resources to fight in one or the other.

If they win Florida but lose Pennsylvania, it really doesn't matter.  So they're better off assuming that there's a polling error in Florida and that it will work itself out, and focusing everything on PA at this point.  Because conceding Pennsylvania isn't a viable option when every poll shows them down 5.

Oh I'm sure it will. FL has a history of working itself out for the GOP. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Blotto

[Hiphopopotamos 20888]

Lets also remember that Trump doesn't have the same level of rat-fucker running his campaign today that he had 4 years ago.  Roger Stone doesn't have wiki-leaks to coordinate with and Steve Bannon has been relegated to appearances on shitty podcasts.  With the near constant turnover (due to arrest, drugs, spousal abuse, fraud) the incompetents have really risen to the top in the Trump Campaign and are now running this shit show.  They've burned through all of their money and had to cancel most of their national ad buys.

Trumps only hope is to whip the base into an absolute froth and hope that they can turn out in record numbers on election day - both to vote and to intimidate others from voting.

 

[SameSame 1705]

2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

siap, but this should make some of you feel better.  hopefully he knows what he's talking about.

 

I do like his demeanor and what he has to say, except for the ‘Just trust me’ answer on federal marshals.

But the reality is they now own the SC without question.  So they have the last card to play and nothing can be done about that.

[Fudge Nuggets 19224]

2 hours ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

These people are fanatics.  Kavanaugh is ruling exactly how he wants to rule - he doesn't need someone to bribe or threaten him.  He was chosen because he is a fanatic for the cause.  And it is the same for Coney-Barrett.  They're doing this because they are shitty human beings - not because anyone is forcing them to.

That's why I said exactly that in my first response to brisket.  Owing dotard a solid or him having dirt on them has nothing to do with it when they will do his and Moscow Mitch's biding for the fun of it.

[SydneyCarton 48170]

16 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I'm still surprised Trump is okaying it. 

The great thing about Bloomberg's campaign is that he is attacking Trump where Trump will be living in 3 months (god willing) and where one of his few successful resorts is.  It's personal.  "If your enemy is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him." Trump has shown the tendency to view states as either pro-Trump and anti-Trump, and the idea of him living out his post-presidency in an anti-Trump state is fucking delicious.  So, while his campaign may not be relying on bullshit polls, I am willing to bet they are spoonfeeding Trump those polls to keep him from dedicating resources to a bad strategic play. 

 

If I had Bloomberg Fuck You Money, I'd spend 10 million just to make ad buys on Fox and OAN in that area of Florida for a fucking year and just flood it with shitty ass commercials about Trump. Like for the next 5-10 years. 

[Bateshorn 9939]

This just feels so much like 2016 when we were mocking trump for suddenly putting money into the upper Midwest and here we are again.  

[Bruh Man 3160]

If Biden got the Migos crowd, it's a wrap.

 

[G650 14277]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

This just feels so much like 2016 when we were mocking trump for suddenly putting money into the upper Midwest and here we are again.  

Idk. I'm not prescient or anything, but this feels nothing like 2016 to me.

[Aqua Buddha 14609]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

This just feels so much like 2016 when we were mocking trump for suddenly putting money into the upper Midwest and here we are again.  

Except if he loses GA, AZ, and possibly Texas then it doesn't matter.

[Rimbo 26100]

53 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The hell of it is, she would likely be at LESS risk had she done that.

We have a fuckload of terrorists in this country, and the POTUS is exhorting them to act.  It's fucking insane.

[Huckleberry 33096]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

This just feels so much like 2016 when we were mocking trump for suddenly putting money into the upper Midwest and here we are again.  

The Comey crash was in full swing on this day (one week from Election Day) in 2016.

[Rimbo 26100]

44 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

This. I feel like the democrat party will become the new right and the Green Party will be the new left. Or similar. Country is moving left. 
after the gop lose the executive and the senate, they will be, what’s the word...levered bigly. They’ll be lucky if coercing Thomas’ retirement is all that happens and that they actually get something in exchange. 
otherwise, maybe Thomas accidentally gets served a Bacon, Lettuce and Thallium sandwich one day by a friend of the program. 

This is not the first I've heard of it. A former GOP strategist, who quit this year, was saying the same thing. I'm thinking that AOC and that gallery will break off to form the new Left; Biden will bring in the non-Q GOP into the Democrats to be the new center-right.

[The Dog 44139]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The Comey crash was in full swing on this day (one week from Election Day) in 2016.

Yeah:

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19224]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

I think they are just broke and can't challenge Bloombergs money

They're saving every dime they can to pay the legal team for the post-election challenges.

[ryskey 447]

3 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

This is not the first I've heard of it. A former GOP strategist, who quit this year, was saying the same thing. I'm thinking that AOC and that gallery will break off to form the new Left; Biden will bring in the non-Q GOP into the Democrats to be the new center-right.

I'd be down for this.  More viable parties = no D/R duopoly = more competition for votes = more accountability = better policy?  At least that's how you'd draw it up.  The execution would probably be complete shite though.

[Pato del Muerto 52598]

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

They're saving every dime they can to pay the legal team for the post-election challenges.

That plus every dollar you spend is one less you can steal. 

[Rimbo 26100]

1 hour ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

[Hagbard Celine 10923]

6 hours ago, Laga4 said:

Serious question.

What's a downscale white?

Serious question, you have to ask for the translation?

[heso 2816]

46 minutes ago, thepop said:

RCP sure is putting a lot of weight into these republican pollsters. Florida is now in Trumps column and all races are generally narrower. They’re either way off or they’re the only ones correct.

Yea I was just looking over their polling averages and feel a lot less comfortable than I did before I got there. AZ at Biden +2.4 and PA +3.8 are not what I want to see, regardless of who is doing the polling. PA at less than 4% just screams for the GOP to fuck with it. 

[BrickHorn 18285]

45 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Nonsense. I stopped defending Greg Davis because I did get smarter. I learned more about Football, and learned why I was wrong.

I'm willing to gamble that I've spent more time legitimately studying the fall of democracies more than those of y'all who are panicking, listening to podcast fan fiction, screaming bloody murder, etc.

The simple fact of the matter is that America isn't ready or primed for authoritarian takeover yet, and the folks behind the alleged attempt are not exactly cowing the majority into silent acceptance. The military is split at best, and most likely going to side against the authoritarians; the states have too much power as well.

Y'all think you're witnessing the death of American democracy. What you're really witnessing is the last gasps of a dying movement before it fades into irrelevance.

Let me get this straight. You are convinced that the populist right in this country is dying and civil war is absurd why, exactly? Because the GOP is likely to lose an election?

Par for the course, your analysis ignores the facts and misses the point anyway. That the populist right is a minority is not evidence that it is “dying.” If anything, the stunning growth of movements like the Proud Boys and Q, coupled with the remarkably stable support for Trump over the past few years, indicates that the movement is thriving. They aren’t a majority, thank God. But they aren’t dying out.

And in any event, that one side of a partisan divide is larger enough than the other to win elections is hardly evidence that a civil war is far-fetched. Lincoln won the presidency. Any idea what happened shortly thereafter? You conveniently ignore other more relevant factors, such as growing polarization and the politicization of American culture. 

You refuse to consider those factors because listening to a thoughtful podcast discussing the realities of America outside of our little educated, urban, liberal bubble would - what was your excuse again? Oh yeah. It would force you into a bubble. Huh.

But by all means, cling to your Pollyanna dreams of an America healed by this one election and a liberal military standing at the ready to oppose authoritarianism. It’s sunshine pumping nonsense, but it’s certainly on brand. 

[Rimbo 26100]

1 minute ago, ryskey said:

I'd be down for this.  More viable parties = no D/R duopoly = more competition for votes = more accountability = better policy?  At least that's how you'd draw it up.  The execution would probably be complete shite though.

No, there would still only be two viable parties. The GOP dies; the Democrats and Greens move to the right, people switch sides.

Like when the Whigs died off and the GOP replaced them.

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I guarantee you the polls his campaign actually shows Trump have him winning in every state in a 100-1% margin. 

 

"I'm the greatest president ever, everyone loves me, back people love me immigrants love me, everyone knows that. The only people that aren't voting for me is sleepy Joe and crazy Nancy. "

[Beau Vine 54428]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Surprising move considering how close the public polls are in Florida, but it's possible he has internals showing more strength there than what we know.

Didja see the beautiful boat parade in St. Pete?

Many have said it's the most beautiful boat parade ever seen.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Beau Vine

[The Dog 44139]

4 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Didja see the boat parade in St. Pete?

Yeah forget what I said. He's fucking broke.

[Rimbo 26100]

1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

Let me get this straight. You are convinced that the populist right in this country is dying and civil war is absurd why, exactly? Because the GOP is likely to lose an election?

Par for the course, your analysis ignores the facts and misses the point anyway. That the populist right is a minority is not evidence that it is “dying.” If anything, the stunning growth of movements like the Proud Boys and Q, coupled with the remarkably stable support for Trump over the past few years, indicates that the movement is thriving. They aren’t a majority, thank God. But they aren’t dying out.

And in any event, that one side of a partisan divide is larger enough than the other to win elections is hardly evidence that a civil war is far-fetched. Lincoln won the presidency. Any idea what happened shortly thereafter? You conveniently ignore other more relevant factors, such as growing polarization and the politicization of American culture. 

You refuse to consider those factors because listening to a thoughtful podcast discussing the realities of America outside of our little educated, urban, liberal bubble would - what was your excuse again? Oh yeah. It would force you into a bubble. Huh.

But by all means, cling to your Pollyanna dreams of an America healed by this one election and a liberal military standing at the ready to oppose authoritarianism. It’s sunshine pumping nonsense, but it’s certainly on brand. 

So I trade my (alleged) bubble for yours? I mean, "my bubble is better than your bubble" is the best argument you can make?

I mean, there's literally nothing in your post here of any value. Your misconception of my point of view reflects a near-religious devotion to your cause; the poorly-thought-out references to what I might gain in knowledge by joining your little doomsday cult ministry demonstrate how stupid I would be to do so. My God, you actually think your brain is involved, here, and that you're not the brainwashed cult follower that you actually are.

I mean shit... going with the Greg Davis angle? Even Syd here knows better than to kick THAT old dead horse, now.

[Francisco 2.0 32428]

21 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

They're saving every dime they can to pay the legal team for the post-election challenges.

Lol.  Like anything associated with Trump is gonna get paid at this point.  The only way it happened is if the legal team got its money up front.

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Francisco 2.0

[BradInATX 9208]

Are we really forming warring doomsday and non doomsday factions? Just hold it together for seven more days, people.

[BrickHorn 18285]

9 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

So I trade my (alleged) bubble for yours? I mean, "my bubble is better than your bubble" is the best argument you can make?

Do you not know what a bubble is? It’s the idea that one shields himself from perspectives outside his own narrow view. I don’t give a shit if you listen to the podcast or not. But your refusal to listen to it is the very definition of staying in your bubble. You got the metaphor exactly backward which, again, is entirely unsurprising.

Edited October 27, 2020 by BrickHorn

[NameAlreadyInUse 5122]

On 10/26/2020 at 3:58 PM, Beau Vine said:

 

Not even the most punchable Miller.

can't hit that guy on the chin though.

All this talk of picking the top 3 punchable faces is reminding me of the time I tried to create a list of my top 100 songs and I never got the list narrowed down to less than 200.  

[gmr548 16615]

This just feels so much like 2016 when we were mocking trump for suddenly putting money into the upper Midwest and here we are again.  

Yeah, I remember when Hillary was polling 50+ percent in all those states and campaigning in those states while Trump had pulled money out of them at various points throughout the campaign.

Oh wait no I don’t lulz.

Trump is investing there because they probably feel as good as they ever will about FL and his only shot is getting those close enough to litigate in the courts.

[Rimbo 26100]

3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Do you not know what a bubble is? It’s the idea that one shields himself from perspectives outside his own narrow view. I don’t give a shit if you listen to the podcast or not. But your refusal to listen to it is the very definition of staying in your bubble. You got the metaphor exactly backward which, again, is entirely unsurprising.

I don't have to start listening to Qanon podcasts to know that their likelihood of contributing any useful knowledge are nil. The same goes for holocaust deniers, anti-vaxxers, Ancient Aliens, and yes, your little whacko conspiracy theory podcast.

The sources you use to learn about the world matter, and it's not putting myself into a bubble to select higher quality ones.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

I don’t know if this has gotten enough attention but one side in this election already got caught cheating and continues to try to cheat rather openly by sabotaging the post office during a pandemic and this is the side with the military, the militias, and the courts on it.  

This will be fine. 

[BrickHorn 18285]

7 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I don't have to start listening to Qanon podcasts to know that their likelihood of contributing any useful knowledge are nil. The same goes for holocaust deniers, anti-vaxxers, Ancient Aliens, and yes, your little whacko conspiracy theory podcast.

The sources you use to learn about the world matter, and it's not putting myself into a bubble to select higher quality ones.

Add “conspiracy theory” to the list of terms Rimbo misunderstands.

[Biff Tannen 45736]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

this is the side with the military, the militias, and the courts on it.  

not true

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

not true

Hopefully 

[Rimbo 26100]

5 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Add “conspiracy theory” to the list of terms Rimbo misunderstands.

shut the fuck up, brick, you're out of your element here

[BrickHorn 18285]

Whatever side currently controls the executive has the advantage in terms of influence over the military. Considering that and the military’s hesitance to influence politics, I wouldn’t count on them to save us if Trump contests the election. 

I also wouldn’t count on them to step in if the right wing militias start causing trouble while Trump is commander in chief. He isn’t going to order the military to stop militia groups from interfering on behalf of Trump. And the military isn’t going to take it upon themselves to deploy on American soil to fight other Americans. That will be left to police and possibly the national guard, and I don’t trust the former to do their job at all.

As long as Trump is president, the military cannot be counted on to oppose him.