2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Beantown Express 2.0 6554]

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

After the 11:30am SOS website update:

Trump - 4,143,373 (50.6%)
Biden - 3,980,555 (48.6%)
Third Party - 64,318 (0.8%)

Rural counties are slower to get their numbers in. This makes it to where it was a stable day in terms of this margin.

So is this good for Biden or bad?  No idea what this data is showing or means when it comes to early voting.

[Neonmoon 38127]

So basically

Dallas, Houston, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Omaha, Las Vegas are the big money Republican contributors. 

 

[Your Mom 4796]

1 hour ago, TexasEd said:

The music is just so tone deaf.

Guarantee his dumb ass picked that song because it mentions a senator's son thinking it was a dig at Hunter, while having no idea the bulk of the song is bagging on guys exactly like himself and his own shitbag kids.  

Some folks are born silver spoon in hand
Lord, don't they help themselves, yeah
But when the taxman comes to the door

Lord, the house look a like a rummage sale, yeah
It ain't me, it ain't me... I ain't no millionaire's son, no, no

[Snake Diggity 4614]

With WI moving into safe territory Biden has a floor of 252 EV, and that doesn’t include NV, which you have to stretch to make a toss up.  Biden only needs 18 of the 161 toss up EVs.  Trump’s absolute ceiling is 286 EV.

[TexasEd 8064]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

-Snip-

Aggy and Trump may appeal to people who go to rallies and sway to songs and say "whoop!" at socially inappropriate times,  But in terms of electoral impact, the response to that is "so the fuck what?"

I'm only worried about how enthusiastic Trump supporters are as it relates to what they are willing to do other than voting (violence, supporting state-sponsored crimes and cruelty, etc.).  But that guy who stands out on the street in full Trump gear waving a flag.....his vote counts as one vote, same as mine, where I just have a couple of yard signs and no Biden wardrobe.

You forgot examples like loading a cannon on a train to attack Waco, pulling a sword on a cheerleader, flinging poop on a band, and building a bonfire that kills a dozen people in the name of the cause.

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

So basically

Dallas, Houston, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Omaha, Las Vegas are the big money Republican contributors. 

 

They still got money in Cleveland? 

[Brisketexan 104586]

3 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

You forgot examples like loading a cannon on a train to attack Waco, pulling a sword on a cheerleader, flinging poop on a band, and building a bonfire that kills a dozen people in the name of the cause.

You are correct.  Clearly, all of those facts demonstrate that, without any question, there are more people who support aggy than support UT.  QED (btw, I learned how to use that term for such matters during my studies at Trump University).

[Beau Vine 53999]

21 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Even though some of their beliefs are kinda koooky, they are ultra conservative and Republican, and they don’t drink, I’ve always respected the Mormons. 

You're not familiar with Schmitty, clearly.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Beau Vine

[thepop 4409]

[The Dog 43801]

Holy shit:

 

[Hank Kingsley 20680]

 

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

This is pleasant.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Hiphopopotamos

[Huckleberry 32699]

Hey guys, does anyone know if Monmouth has released a Georgia poll recently?

[Beau Vine 53999]

Anyone have news about Georgia?

Edited October 28, 2020 by Beau Vine

[Hank Kingsley 20680]

LOL

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

5 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

They still got money in Cleveland? 

 

[Huckleberry 32699]

Just now, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

Trophy reaction emoji selected due to avatar/post agreement

[TexasEd 8064]

20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yeah, that's sorta what they're doing, Ed.

538 runs basically a glorified Monte Carlo simulation where they run millions of scenarios and then average the results. And they started with an inflated confidence interval and will whittle it down to the real CI by election day. So a few weeks ago they had scenarios where Trump won Oregon in the model, because their CI was so high that out of 1,000 runs of the model, maybe twice Trump won Oregon at the very, very edge of the confidence interval.

As we go on that confidence interval is getting tighter and crazy, effectively impossible scenarios like Trump winning Oregon get the boot and happen zero times in the Monte Carlo model, which is where we see the sharpening of the results.

It accounts for uncertainty and it's a smart way to to do it. But it wouldn't account for huge poll misses (like the 2016 Rust Belt).

 

Yes, I get all that.  My post was just addressing the language and basic process. 

You are right that the time window is one of the uncertainty factors to account for but there are others like methods of survey (online, landline, cell phone, postcard, clipboard and people at the mall), demographic factors, etc.  I think the hardest factor to account for in this election is the possibility of people switching parties because of Trump unfavourability or political unrest in cities.  The whole conspiracy thing has to be a challenge to address.

[LTbear 4160]

24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This is one thing I don't get.  Trump appeals to people who are more likely to become rabid enthusiasts of whatever their passion is, and are the type to show it.  Biden appeals to people who....aren't like that.

Think of how aggies cover their homes, vehicles, and wardrobes with aggy shit, and constantly drop a "whoop!" into conversation and shit.  That's how they are, or at least how most of them are.

Longhorns by and large are NOT like that.  Yeah, they'll wear orange for game days, maybe have a Texas Exes sticker, maybe wear a UT golf shirt out and about.  But we don't aggy it up.

That doesn't mean that Longhorns support their program any less.  It doesn't mean that there are fewer Longhorn fans than there are Aggy fans (in fact, the opposite is true, by any count).

Aggy and Trump may appeal to people who go to rallies and sway to songs and say "whoop!" at socially inappropriate times,  But in terms of electoral impact, the response to that is "so the fuck what?"

I'm only worried about how enthusiastic Trump supporters are as it relates to what they are willing to do other than voting (violence, supporting state-sponsored crimes and cruelty, etc.).  But that guy who stands out on the street in full Trump gear waving a flag.....his vote counts as one vote, same as mine, where I just have a couple of yard signs and no Biden wardrobe.

Trump appeals to those who desperately need to feel like they belong to something special, Biden appeals to people who are already secure in their self worth. 

[Aqua Buddha 14504]

Lulz is both GA Senate seats go down.  I'll go out on a limb and say they will.  The black vote turning out in Atlanta ain't voting Perdue and whatever batshit candidates is in the other race.  I was surprised to see the Dem above 50% in the other race.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Aqua Buddha

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, TexasEd said:

Yes, I get all that.  My post was just addressing the language and basic process. 

You are right that the time window is one of the uncertainty factors to account for but there are others like methods of survey (online, landline, cell phone, postcard, clipboard and people at the mall), demographic factors, etc.  I think the hardest factor to account for in this election is the possibility of people switching parties because of Trump unfavourability or political unrest in cities.  The whole conspiracy thing has to be a challenge to address.

Yep, and the pollsters admit that they are still shooting at a moving target trying to properly account for poor white Trump voters. I think the only safe assumption is that they've gotten incrementally better at it. By how much is anyone's guess.

[Dahobbs 17444]

13 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

They still got money in Cleveland? 

Not anymore?

[Hank Kingsley 20680]

 

[Francisco 2.0 32320]

 

 

 

[The Dog 43801]

and more on that GA poll:

 

[Brisketexan 104586]

6 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Trump appeals to those who desperately need to feel like they belong to something special, Biden appeals to people who are already secure in their self worth. 

You know, that's a really good way to think about it.  I certainly don't look at my support for Biden or the Dems as defining my identity, making me part of a team ("I'm on the TRUMP TRAIN!").  To me, it's simply my choice of civic engagement.  I support those candidates.  I think it's important -- man, I think it's REALLY important.  But that fact just doesn't fit into my "identity."  I'm who I am, and I SUPPORT certain candidates.  "Support" is a verb.  "Supporter" is a noun.  Which term you think of when you consider your political engagement is telling.

I support Biden.  I voted for him.  I've sent him money.  I have a yard sign.  But that's it.  No gear, no bumper sticker, nobody in line near me at HEB has any idea who I support in this election.

My neighbor with the Trump flag flying, and the MAGA hat he wears everywhere, is a Trump supporter.  It's who he is, and he wants everyone to know it, everywhere and all the time.

 

Good post.

[Brisketexan 104586]

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

Yeah, see, all my concerns and warnings and whatnot --- clearly all out of left field, all will be cool, nothing to worry about.

[The Dog 43801]

4 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

Bit of a misleading headline - it implies that his group is going to kill Democrats at the polls and that's not what the article says. 

[The Dog 43801]

Right at the 538 average. Hope they ain't herding...

[Beau Vine 53999]

1 hour ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

I believe that would be all the racist fucks in Harlingen. 

@Helobious

[TexasEd 8064]

Deserves another post

 

 

[Hank Kingsley 20680]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You know, that's a really good way to think about it.  I certainly don't look at my support for Biden or the Dems as defining my identity, making me part of a team ("I'm on the TRUMP TRAIN!").  To me, it's simply my choice of civic engagement.  I support those candidates.  I think it's important -- man, I think it's REALLY important.  But that fact just doesn't fit into my "identity."  I'm who I am, and I SUPPORT certain candidates.  "Support" is a verb.  "Supporter" is a noun.  Which term you think of when you consider your political engagement is telling.

I support Biden.  I voted for him.  I've sent him money.  I have a yard sign.  But that's it.  No gear, no bumper sticker, nobody in line near me at HEB has any idea who I support in this election.

My neighbor with the Trump flag flying, and the MAGA hat he wears everywhere, is a Trump supporter.  It's who he is, and he wants everyone to know it, everywhere and all the time.

 

Good post.

Buttigieg talked about "belonging" a lot throughout his campaign. 

 

Plum Line: Can you talk about your broader sense of the role that this type of economic vulnerability plays in creating the conditions for the kind of communitarian collapse that creates an opening for sentiments like white nationalism to flourish?

Buttigieg: I don’t want this to slide into the idea that some of these racist behaviors can be excused because they can be connected to economic issues. But I do think it’s easier to fall into these forms of extremism when you don’t know where your place is.

 

There’s this very basic human desire for belonging that historically has often been supplied by the workplace. It’s been based on the presumption of a lifelong relationship with a single employer. This isn’t just a blue-collar phenomenon.

 

We’ve come to be pretty reliant on the way that your workplace explains who you are. That’s breaking down. That doesn’t have to be a soul-crushing thing, provided that there are alternate sources for community, identity, and purpose. In South Bend, we focus a lot on enlisting people in the project of the city itself.

The sense of belonging can be very powerful, and we’re very fragile without it. It’s not accidental that some areas that have seen the most disruption in our social and economic life are those that are most likely to produce a lot of domestic extremists.

[Bateshorn 9898]

43 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I work with a client from Salt Lake City that calls himself a “reformed” Mormon.  He drinks tons of bourbon and spends a lot of time in Vegas at the black jack tables gambling for days at a time.  That’s the kind of Mormon I can be friends with.

That’s a Jack Mormon.

[Brisketexan 104586]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

The sense of belonging can be very powerful, and we’re very fragile without it. It’s not accidental that some areas that have seen the most disruption in our social and economic life are those that are most likely to produce a lot of domestic extremists.

So much this.  You've read me lamenting the loss of "community" on here for years.  This is what I mean.  And the irony is that the philosophy that Trumpers are buying into, the "community" they are joining, is actually brutally ANTI-community in every way but one.  Their new religion preaches the lie of the individual above all, everything is up to the individual, everything is the exclusive responsibility of the individual -- we don't owe anyone else ANYTHING.  Not our courtesy, not our kindness, not an acknowledgement of shared interests and resources (hey, we ALL need the river as a water supply, how about none of us shit in it?).  The ONLY sense of community -- and it's a very strong, ancient, and effective one -- is to unite the US (Trumpers) against THEM (the muslims, mexicans, black people and.....as it always ends up.....everyone who does not demonstrate full and complete loyalty to the regime.  Those are all "out" groups, and the ONLY "in" group is "Trump loyalists.")

They are desperate for community, an ideal that has been laid waste in our culture, and they latched onto.....the cheapest, most dangerous kind of community there is.  A community defined by its division and tribalism.

We're a broken fucking country, man.

[gmr548 16500]

With WI moving into safe territory Biden has a floor of 252 EV, and that doesn’t include NV, which you have to stretch to make a toss up.  Biden only needs 18 of the 161 toss up EVs.  Trump’s absolute ceiling is 286 EV.

I don’t think you can count WI as safe simply because of the potential for Republican ratfuckery in the courts with a delayed count. Agreed that in all likelihood Biden wins a properly counted election. Polls up there are just as resounding as MI.

[Mez2 4021]

thank you Offset!

[Hank Kingsley 20680]

This pollster is supposed to be the gold standard for Wisconsin. 

 

[Brisketexan 104586]

Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

This pollster is supposed to be the gold standard for Wisconsin. 

 

WTF is up with the 8%?  Why did they give "no choice?"  And who does that bode well for?  Are they the "shy Trump supporters?"

[shnsajax 3589]

39 minutes ago, thepop said:

This is what happens when people are allowed to vote. 

[gmr548 16500]

So is this good for Biden or bad?  No idea what this data is showing or means when it comes to early voting.

In a vacuum, any margin under 2.6 percent is better for Biden because it indicates higher turnout from areas that voted more pro democratic. The opposite is true of a margin larger than 2.6 percent.

Of course, this isn’t a vacuum. We know early voters likely favor Biden to some degree, but not by how much. Overall I’d expect a slight Biden lead at the first release of early voting numbers. But it’s still likely that erodes on Election Day.

[Hank Kingsley 20680]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This pollster is supposed to be the gold standard for Wisconsin. 

 

The only thing that concerns me here is what “gave no choice” means. There can’t be that many undecideds so my mind goes to Trump voters sandbagging for dramatic Election Day effect. 

[gmr548 16500]

This pollster is supposed to be the gold standard for Wisconsin. 
 

That’s actually not far off from where it was with Clinton. Biden has polled 50+ in most WI polls over the past month. It’s obviously not bad to be +5 but that isn’t a great result either.

Of course, you’ve also got an incumbent at 43 percent, so, yeah.

[Pancho 44466]

 

[Beau Vine 53999]

23 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Bit of a misleading headline - it implies that his group is going to kill Democrats at the polls and that's not what the article says. 

Yes, the actual contents of the article are soooo much more sunshiny and reassuring...

[BradInATX 9208]

  

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[jimmyjazz 45554]

Who was it claiming Latino voters would go 95% Biden?  It was quite a little dustup, and the historical numbers in no way aligned with such a claim, but that clearly didn't matter.  So now we see it's something like 67% Biden 26% Trump.

Hmmm.  Just like always.

[Hank Kingsley 20680]

 

[Jive Turkey 12568]

43 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Trump appeals to those who desperately need to feel like they belong to something special, Biden appeals to people who are already secure in their self worth. 

i feel pretty confident that Trump is using the same tactics to lure in supporters as Al Qaeda did.  they target a certain disenfranchised type and try to give them value and make them feel important by allowing them to join their cult.  

i've seen a vulnerable friend go from very neutral to anti-vax/hoax over the course of a few months, and now she is sharing Trump stuff.  pretty damn sad.

[Storm the Field 5271]

Quote

2. Biden's favorables in this poll are +3 vs. -10 for Trump. This just isn't the same as 2016 where voters flirting with third-parties and late deciders are gonna be choosing between two candidates they disdain equally.

Expounding on this topic:

Edited October 28, 2020 by Storm the Field