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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Helobious

Helobious 9480

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16 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

@Helobious

Harlingen is the reddest valley town, large snowbird population and country folk surrounding the city. More so than McAllen. Trump got over 1/3rd of the Cameron County vote in 2016, I think it was more like a quarter or just above in Hidalgo.

The town does have a very segregated history between Mexicans and whites. Not so much anymore now that most of the whites left but there’s still remnants of it among the old guard. The few blacks around town got it bad from both sides back in the day from what I heard, thats partly why there’s never been many around. Always felt bad for them. Still, fuck that guy for calling us racist. If you’re black and good at football everyone in town will love you.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104585

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Probably not the guy getting his ass kicked. 

Ahem....

hqdefault.jpg

 

The game lasts the full 60 minutes.  I don't breathe anything CLOSE to easy till the final whistle blows.

Edited by Brisketexan
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Longhorn94

Longhorn94 2427

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, see, all my concerns and warnings and whatnot --- clearly all out of left field, all will be cool, nothing to worry about.

fuck that dude. i love the incorrect assumption that Dems dont own and carry firearms. My Dad is a retired Deputy Sheriff and was the range master at his department. We were raised shooting on the Ranch. We have multiple handguns and long rifles. my favorite is an over / under shotgun but thats just because i like to sit on the front porch and clean it when my daughter's boyfriends come to visit. they usually dont come back or is that leave, i forget.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104585

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Just now, Red Five said:

Got it Eeyore, but the question was "in whose position would you rather be in, Biden or Trump". 

The only position I care about is my position on January 20, 2021, watching someone other than Trump walk into the White House as POTUS.  Anything before then is just speculation and hope, I can't call it anything more than that.  We live in bad, unpredictable times.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104585

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Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

I truly believe this game had a negative effect on the rest of my life. 15 years old at the time and where my cynicism was born. 

 

 

 

I'd been a Houston sports fans for decades by then.  I had learned the ways of disappointment and suffering.  I had a master's degree in them.

The 2016 election is where I got my PhD.

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TexEx15

TexEx15 17459

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6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I would have gone with this, but wrong city.  Oh well.

David Freese Hit The Best World Series Home Run 5 Years Ago Today - Mandatory

Damn it Cruz run through the fucking wall to catch the fly ball!

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Morris is a nerd:

 

For us math/statistics challenged folks what does this mean?

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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49 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


That’s actually not far off from where it was with Clinton. Biden has polled 50+ in most WI polls over the past month. It’s obviously not bad to be +5 but that isn’t a great result either.

Of course, you’ve also got an incumbent at 43 percent, so, yeah.

while +5 certainly doesn't feel "safe", you have to also account for consistency and trend lines.  look at the last 6 months of biden wisc polls.  look at national polling averages for the past weeks and months.  then look at what hillary was at 6 months, 3 months, 1 month, 1 week out.

margin of error also starts to become meaningless when:

(1) the polls are this consistent

(2) many likely or registered voters polled this late are not likely, they've actually already voted 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

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24 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

fuck that dude. i love the incorrect assumption that Dems dont own and carry firearms. My Dad is a retired Deputy Sheriff and was the range master at his department. We were raised shooting on the Ranch. We have multiple handguns and long rifles. my favorite is an over / under shotgun but thats just because i like to sit on the front porch and clean it when my daughter's boyfriends come to visit. they usually dont come back or is that leave, i forget.

That's b/c you are in Texas.  It's cultural.  White suburbanites in blue states on the coasts don't have guns (by and large). I just assume every Texan has at least 7 guns (As a non Texan I have 2- locked in a gun safe with the key thrown away- they are the wife's guns). Fuck that shit- I've got 3 kids around I'm not taking any chances on them shooting themselves or each other. Those guns aren't coming out without a locksmith coming to open the gun safe. Every time the wife mentions that I "get right on that" and let nature take its course and the woman forget about it altogether.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45554

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2 minutes ago, usmc0331horn said:

It's almost as if the military is diverse af.

Yeah, that's what my buddy says.  He's a Lt. Colonel and he said the geographic and racial diversity really plays out in political leanings.  Young white southern guys?  Trump.  Young white guys from the west coast or the northeast?  Biden.  Young black and Hispanic guys?  Usually Biden.  Young guys from the midwest?  Varies.  Officers?  Varies.

But, there's a shit ton of young white southern guys in the military.

NOTE:  "guys" means "soldiers", not men.  Also, he's speaking of active duty, not veterans, which was the demographic represented in the charts above.

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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I support Biden.  I voted for him.  I've sent him money.  I have a yard sign.  But that's it.  No gear, no bumper sticker, nobody in line near me at HEB has any idea who I support in this election.

My neighbor with the Trump flag flying, and the MAGA hat he wears everywhere, is a Trump supporter.  It's who he is, and he wants everyone to know it, everywhere and all the time.

That's why I question who these "silent" Trump voters are.  At least in a state like Texas.  Maybe they exist in other states.   The category of people I know voting for Trump are as follows:

1.  Full Blown MAGA as described above (vast majority).

2.  Republicans that may not prefer Trump but aren't voting for a Democrat (and those in this category aren't shy about admitting that as it's almost like they feel the need to discuss policy reasons in order to justify the vote for themselves).

 

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32320

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/most-democrats-are-scared-to-say-so-but-joe-biden-is-poised-for-a-landslide-win?ref=home

 

Quote

All signs point to a Biden win, even a landslide.

The former vice president has an 8-point lead nationally and a significant edge in most battleground states. He campaigned in Georgia on Tuesday, reaching for victory in a red state that hasn’t been competitive for decades while President Trump is running around the country pretending it’s 2016 all over again.

 

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The election forecast couldn’t get much brighter for Democrats but instead of singing, “Don’t Worry, Be Happy,” most Democrats don’t want to even talk about the potential of a blowout approaching the scale of 1980, when Ronald Reagan came out of the West to bury Jimmy Carter.

Forty years later, Trump’s base in rural America and in Southern states should protect him from a Carter-sized humiliation but a week out from D-Day, “it looks like a fairly sizable win for Biden” reports Dave Wasserman with the non-partisan Cook Political Report. He says Democrats were in denial about Hillary Clinton’s weaknesses four years ago. “Now Democrats are paranoid about polls that look good for Biden.”

 

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Democrats don’t want to do anything that might jinx the outcome or tempt the election gods into hurling a lightning bolt that could result in another Electoral College rout for Trump. Democrats still have post-traumatic stress disorder from 2016, and they believe the Biden campaign when it says their private polls show a much closer race than public polls suggest. Anything can happen in these final days, one Democrat cautioned, pointing to the rioting in Philadelphia over the police shooting of a 27-year-old Black man armed with a knife, potentially roiling the vote in a key state.

 

Quote

One of the few Democrats willing to say unequivocally that victory is at hand is James Carville, who helped steer Bill Clinton to the White House in 1992. He says we will know by 10:30 pm Eastern time on Election Night that Biden has won. How can he be so sure? “First of all, every poll I’ve seen in Pennsylvania—and I’ve seen a lot of them—Biden is up 53 to 45,” he told The Daily Beast. “If Biden wins Pennsylvania, FiveThirtyEight gives him a 96 percent chance of winning (the presidency.

Next, says Carville, is Florida, where “if Biden runs 5 points ahead of where Hillary was, I don’t have to look any further. And if he wins Georgia, which he could, it’s over.” Trump’s disapproval among white voters in Georgia is 32 percent, Carville says, a number that together with an energized Black vote puts the state and two Senate races within Democratic reach.

 

Spoiler

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg told the Daily Beast, “This may be the biggest landslide possible in this polarized country.” In 1980, Reagan won all but six states and the District of Columbia. How sweet it would be 40 years later to return the favor, but Greenberg says victory on that scale is unlikely given Trump’s job approval is still at 42 percent and his base in rural America and Southern states is still strong.

The latest NBC map awards Trump just 125 red-state Electoral College votes, leaving open the possibility Biden could win over 400 EC votes, the biggest landslide since George H.W. Bush demolished Michael Dukakis in 1988.

Instead of savoring the victory that lies ahead, “Democrats are just shaking and trembling and having conference calls,” says Carville, who doesn’t conceal his disgust with his party’s inability to accept what is staring them in the face. “The Democratic campaign culture is the whiniest, most feeble, most pathetic thing I’ve ever seen. Are we going to lose? No, we’re going to win!”

If the data is that strong, why are so many pundits and pollsters reluctant to talk about what is shaping up as a big win? “Because people shift—and a one-in-10 event happened last time,” Carville replied.

Looking back at his data from four years ago, Wasserman says there were clear flashing red signs for Clinton, as Trump’s lead in key congressional districts had ballooned from 5 points in September to 15 points just ahead of the election. Today, the same map is full of flashing red signs for Trump. Biden is leading by 7 to 10 points in four Pennsylvania districts considered moderately competitive. With more than 60 million votes already cast, the undecided and third-party share is half of what it was in 2016, which should make for less volatility this time around.

Like Carville, Wasserman will be watching Florida’s Sumter County, home of the Villages, a strong Republican enclave that favored Trump 68 to 29 in 2016. “Trump needs at least 67 percent (in Sumter County) to win Florida,” says Wasserman. “If we see the first batch of votes from the Villages and Trump is leading 60 to 39, in my book, that would be catastrophic” for him.

So all signs point to a Biden win, but will it be a blowout? “If he wins the states Hillary won plus the Blue Wall (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), that would be 278 votes, not my definition of a blowout,” says Bill Galston, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution. “Will he do better than that? Will he win North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Georgia in addition to the Blue Wall states, that would be a blowout. If he wins Texas, that would be beyond a blowout—it would be a wipeout.”

Why isn’t he predicting any of that? “Because I don’t have the required level of confidence in the outcome. And I suspect in the last few days some wavering Trump supporters will return to the fold.” Galston thinks Trump will do a little better than the 43 percent some analysts are predicting, and he attributes his reticence about going further to the “tension between my head and my gut. My gut is queasy for reasons related to 2016 PTSD. We really got knocked off our pins emotionally and analytically.”

Former George W. Bush pollster Matthew Dowd is so bullish on Biden that he says the former vice president has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He regularly tweets data points on why Texas is possible for Biden. In Texas District 3 (Collin county), Trump won in 2016 by 14 points; one recent poll there has Biden up 11.

Former Romney adviser Stuart Stevens, who has endorsed Biden, has called on Democrats “to banish the timidity,” saying if he were in charge here’s what he would be telling his troops, “We are going to crush Donald Trump and the sickness he represents. There are more of us than there are of them. We are right. They are wrong. This is our moment. This is our destiny. Walk with confidence. Do not falter. Victory will be ours.”

Easier said if you’re a Republican, says Matt Bennett with Third Way, a moderate Democratic group. The PTSD Democrats are experiencing is not just about 2016. “We have it from 2004, when the early exit polls had John Kerry winning, and in 2000, when they called the friggin’ election basically for us. We are the product of a series of close and heartbreaking elections that make it hard for anyone to contemplate a blowout.”

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16500

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while +5 certainly doesn't feel "safe", you have to also account for consistency and trend lines.  look at the last 6 months of biden wisc polls.  look at national polling averages for the past weeks and months.  then look at what hillary was at 6 months, 3 months, 1 month, 1 week out.
margin of error also starts to become meaningless when:
(1) the polls are this consistent
(2) many likely or registered voters polled this late are not likely, they've actually already voted 

Oh no I agree. That is one of the worst polls Biden has in WI. The overall picture is a more secure lead. If you want to play the one poll game you can counter with the ABC/WaPo poll from the same time frame with Biden +17. I was more countering the idea that this “gold standard” WI poll with Biden up 48-43 was a home run result.
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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Quote

 

President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner boasted in mid-April about how the President had cut out the doctors and scientists advising him on the unfolding coronavirus pandemic, comments that came as more than 40,000 Americans already had died from the virus, which was ravaging New York City.

In a taped interview on April 18, Kushner told legendary journalist Bob Woodward that Trump was "getting the country back from the doctors" in what he called a "negotiated settlement." Kushner also proclaimed that the US was moving swiftly through the "panic phase" and "pain phase" of the pandemic and that the country was at the "beginning of the comeback phase."

"That doesn't mean there's not still a lot of pain and there won't be pain for a while, but that basically was, we've now put out rules to get back to work," Kushner said. "Trump's now back in charge. It's not the doctors."

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/woodward-kushner-coronavirus-doctors/index.html

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, but that ultimately didn't play out well for the good guys.  

I still laugh at the absolute monstrosity of that home run, though.

as soon as eckstein got on, it was painfully obvious to every astros fan how that game would end.  i was standing in the austin airport, explaining to strangers what was about to happen.

still fucked our rotation for the series.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47871

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2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

After the 11:30am SOS website update:

Trump - 4,143,373 (50.6%)
Biden - 3,980,555 (48.6%)
Third Party - 64,318 (0.8%)

Rural counties are slower to get their numbers in. This makes it to where it was a stable day in terms of this margin.

Thing you posted this on the wrong thread, sir. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45554

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10 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

as soon as eckstein got on, it was painfully obvious to every astros fan how that game would end.  i was standing in the austin airport, explaining to strangers what was about to happen.

still fucked our rotation for the series.

Lidge's reaction was priceless.  It was so "shit, I knew that was gonna happen".

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