2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[The Dog 44074]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Hackers...right

 

the login used was probably bparscale@donaldjtrump.com...

[Francisco 2.0 32404]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Hackers...right

 

 

I'm gonna assume that hacker is Karen from accounting.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

With it being the Wisconsin GOP, that is one heckuva each accusation is a confession right there....

[Thatguy 8785]

2 hours ago, G650 said:

Fat head and skinny lapels is a bad combo

Did you just suit shame this dude? Lol. Repped for head to lapel ratio smack.

[yoladu 4094]

11 minutes ago, thepop said:

https://www.txballot.org/

You can check here to see if your vote has been counted. Also, you can check to see which friends of yours have not voted yet so you can text them and be like wtf are you waiting for.

AWESOME! should put this link in the voting info thread!

[Red Five 40879]

12 minutes ago, thepop said:

https://www.txballot.org/

You can check here to see if your vote has been counted. Also, you can check to see which friends of yours have not voted yet so you can text them and be like wtf are you waiting for.

Sweet, mine has been counted. Thanks. 

[Dahobbs 17634]

25 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Obviously an outlier poll, BUT:
 I skimmed this and it looks ... plausible if unlikely? I mean, except for the extremity of the margin. It obviously presents a surprising Democratic "lean" (43%) and "don't know" (24%) vs Republican lean (32%), but the party ID was at 34(R%), 35(D%) and 28% non partisan which is in line with other surveys. 
That does not mean D+12. That would mean that a large number of people who identity as non partisans but normally vote Republican and a smaller number of Republicans have flipped to Biden.

That's not a bizarre proposition, since it's literally the entire strategic thesis of the Biden campaign. 

 

 

I was just coming to post this same thing. I was confused where the statement of D+12 was coming from, as the party identification tab looked completely normal. And the Senate race confirms it isn't really D+12. It is just independents breaking a lot more strongly for democrats and with a bunch of people still not knowing anything about Cornyn or Hegar. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Dahobbs 17634]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Sweet, mine has been counted. Thanks. 

So was mine. For now. I did drive-in voting in Harris County. 

[Thatguy 8785]

1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

 

   I mean, I walked in there, voted straight D, and walked out of there with my dick out. Here is to hoping millions did the same.

[G650 14273]

11 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

Did you just suit shame this dude? Lol. Repped for head to lapel ratio smack.

I will never not suit shame terrible fits.

[GRHorn 105]

Florida info 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

33 minutes ago, thepop said:

https://www.txballot.org/

You can check here to see if your vote has been counted. Also, you can check to see which friends of yours have not voted yet so you can text them and be like wtf are you waiting for.

That's awesome. Thanks for that.

My dad has been claiming he hates Trump so much he would cast his first ballot since Carter, but I wasn't sure if he'd actually do it. Looked it up, he mailed his ballot in. So chalk another anecdotal evidence new Biden vote up.

[The Dog 44074]

 

[Pig Bellmont 8719]

11 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Florida info 

 

Doesn’t this assume 1) everyone is voting consistently with their registered party affiliation and 2) the voters not affiliated with either party are breaking evenly? 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

10 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Florida info 

 

Trump and Biden both in Tampa today, with the President being at the polling place--stadium. While he is required to maintain a 150 foot distance from the entrance according to state law, there are a couple of things he should consider but probably won't: violate this law and watch as Bloomberg drags the Trump name through the mud and  speak so loudly and annoyingly that people get pissed and vote for Biden. If the security is tight due to the President's visit, it might suppress the vote due to PITA traffic.  Don't know that it works in his favor.

[Hagbard Celine 10903]

1 hour ago, Continental Op said:

Donald Trump is terrible. We should win convincingly. 

i'm going to doctor up another map just for you and fudge

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Those Cubans sure do like dictators.

[Bozo_Casanova 26520]

51 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Hackers...right

 

I wonder if it was the same guys who hacked Tucker Carlson's mail. 

[Mdhorn 5978]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Those Cubans sure do like dictators.

Yep, after immigrating illegally, they side with the party that doesn't want them there.  

[Pato del Muerto 52553]

Anecdotal religious fun:

1) we were talking with a couple that is baptist. They said their whatever group was looking for a place to do whatever. My wife said there is space at the local Catholic Church. The reply was no thanks we couldn’t possibly do something at a non Christian church. Wife and I looked at each other wide eyed and said ok rather than get into that conversation. 
 

2). Wife was part of an online home school group of Catholics. Something came up about someone being stressed out or something and my wife shared that yoga and meditation helps her. She got verbally attacked by a couple of catholic women about how she can’t be doing yoga as a Catholic because it’s part of an eastern polytheistic religion and false idolatry and yada yada. 
 

there are many people out there that are slaves to their faiths and absolutely sure in their righteousness. 

[The Dog 44074]

 

[Dahobbs 17634]

3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Doesn’t this assume 1) everyone is voting consistently with their registered party affiliation and 2) the voters not affiliated with either party are breaking evenly? 

It is just measuring turnout percentage of the total number of registered voters for each party. It isn't giving you the vote totals. Democrats have higher registration totals, so the lead in total votes is greater than the turnout percentages alone suggest. Right now, Democrats have a 179,098 vote advantage (based on those numbers). That represents 2.6% of total vote right now. 

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

Year	Republican Party of Florida	Florida Democratic Party	Minor Parties	No Party Affiliation	Total
2020	5,020,199	5,203,795	188,587	3,653,046	14,065,627

 

Republicans pretty much always have higher turnout (I haven't looked specifically into Florida, but I assume it is true there too). 

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

It’s decent game theory for both campaigns to avoid texas. It’s chances of being the tipping point state are virtually zero. 
so, Trumps got to hope he can move the needle elsewhere and that Texas takes care of itself while Biden has more important and easily attainable goals he needs to make sure are in line. 
now, once texas gets razor close/flips in a statewide race we become Florida as ground zero. 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

I'll dig even deeper on this. The more orthodox evangelicals don't think Catholics are christian, at all. They think Catholicism is a polytheistic religion that worships a living man as fervently as God, himself, as well as viewing the saints as separate entities that are worshiped. And it's funny you mention the works/repentance aspect of it. Evangelicals actually think that Catholics have an easier path to heaven in their religion because all they have to do is "buy" their way in with hollow good deeds rather than true repentance. How else could you explain a religion embraced by adulterers like JFK and entire societies based on crime like the mafia. That's their words, not mine, by the way. If I had to classify myself as anything these days, it's as a "Golden Rule Agnostic."

 

1 hour ago, tantric superman said:

I've never ever known Catholics to by synonymous with Evangelicals.  It's easy to see the difference in South Texas -- when Mexican Americans fall off the Catholic wagon, they either give up religion (or become soft shelled protestant, same thing) or if they want to stay religious they go all in on Evangelical shit. 

Catholics have to do good deeds (like going to Church) to get them into heaven.  Evangelicals just need to proclaim their faith, cry once in awhile, and they are in.  It's a good deal if you can stomach hanging around with that lot.

 

56 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Was evangelical- confirmed catholic as an adult- went back to evangelical after said catholic and I divorced. Unfortunately/ this belief is prevalent inside the evangelical church. 
I wouldn’t call it the orthodox belief but rather that of the stupid. You might say- but Wulaw those are the same thing- and I would counter with- Yeah- fuck- there are a lot of stupid people out there. But this isn’t the official belief, this isn’t the standard belief, and when I hear someone talking like that I know to steer clear bc they don’t really get this whole Christianity thing, and by saying this shit out loud they are combining that with aggressive stupidity. 

There is a range of beliefs. A big church of Baptists is totally different than a smaller one. That's not going into the UPC, the AG, or the Church of Christ. Again, there is a range of beliefs about Catholicism. The suburban people that have good friends that are Catholics don't believe any of that bullshit. Well,  most of them. There's always accounting for stupid. 

But, the little fire and brimstone congregations absolutely have this in their heads and hearts. Barrett is a good Catholic, Biden is a bad one. Trump is a broken vessel used for good. 

They are immune to cognitive dissonance. At least some of the younger ones have a chance to escape while they're still in the cognitive functioning stage. 

Oh yeah that's not even mentioning Mormons. 

That's even more hypocritical in how they evangelical will support them in public and talk about them going to hell in Sunday School.

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

There is a range of beliefs. A big church of Baptists is totally different than a smaller one. That's not going into the UPC, the AG, or the Church of Christ. Again, there is a range of beliefs about Catholicism. The suburban people that have good friends that are Catholics don't believe any of that bullshit. Well,  most of them. There's always accounting for stupid. 

But, the little fire and brimstone congregations absolutely have this in their heads and hearts. Barrett is a good Catholic, Biden is a bad one. Trump is a broken vessel used for good. 

They are immune to cognitive dissonance. At least some of the younger ones have a chance to escape while they're still in the cognitive functioning stage. 

Oh yeah that's not even mentioning Mormons. 

That's even more hypocritical in how they evangelical will support them in public and talk about them going to hell in Sunday School.

Yeah- not much at all to disagree with in this post. I guess some could add in age- I think the younger evangelicals are probably more open to seeing Catholics as a different flavor of faith the way they tolerate the Methodists as a for example. 
Of course- I don’t know anyone with any sense calling Lutherans part of the “evangelical” world and they could certainly  give a master class in catholic hate to the most backwater southern baptist- so- it’s not al about fervency of evangelical-ness there’s a lot guided by history and generational conflict. Also- as pertains to Lutherans and Catholics a lot of times the smaller the differences the harder they are to overcome. 
A back water baptist would find Lutheran and catholic liturgy extremely similar and ask what the fuss was all about. 
Trump as a broken vessel used for good is the more enlightened thinking on him- those lined up and MAGA or MAGA adjacent aren’t considering anything about him broken. 
mormonism was officially considered a cult until about 2010 by the Catholics and I don’t know a single baptist that would disagree. Official doctrine changed with Mitt Romney obviously gonna be a thing, but I don’t think any hearts or minds changed. I bet if given truth serum 90+ percent of regular parishioners/attendees would still have this viewpoint on Mormons. 

[Chuckie Finster 22716]

Favorite ad of the cycle. Needs to be everywhere.

[South Austin 52545]

26 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

there are many people out there that are slaves to their faiths and absolutely sure in their righteousness. 

Fair point, but Jesus Christ will ALWAYS be able to hit a curve ball.

[G650 14273]

Just now, South Austin said:

Fair point, but Jesus Christ will ALWAYS be able to hit a curve ball.

Up your butt Jobu

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Fair point, but Jesus Christ will ALWAYS be able to hit a curve ball.

He can't hit a curveball like Jobu but we can agree to disagree.

 

[South Austin 52545]

1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

He can't hit a curveball like Jobu but we can agree to disagree.

He's THE reason Jobu hit that curve ball.

[Huckleberry 33058]

God dammit, Jobu did not hit that curveball, Cerrano did it himself.

[Biff Tannen 45697]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Anecdotal religious fun:

1) we were talking with a couple that is baptist. They said their whatever group was looking for a place to do whatever. My wife said there is space at the local Catholic Church. The reply was no thanks we couldn’t possibly do something at a non Christian church. Wife and I looked at each other wide eyed and said ok rather than get into that conversation. 
 

2). Wife was part of an online home school group of Catholics. Something came up about someone being stressed out or something and my wife shared that yoga and meditation helps her. She got verbally attacked by a couple of catholic women about how she can’t be doing yoga as a Catholic because it’s part of an eastern polytheistic religion and false idolatry and yada yada. 
 

there are many people out there that are slaves to their faiths and absolutely sure in their righteousness. 

Well that's just fucking weird.

[The Dog 44074]

Ok that goofy Citizen Data poll has been updated and is now Biden +4 with an R +6 sample. Has Cornyn/Hegar in a dead heat.

https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Corrected Texas VBM Toplines 10_29_20.pdf

Edited October 29, 2020 by The Dog

[Huckleberry 33058]

Just now, The Dog said:

Ok that goofy Citizen Data poll has been updated and is now Biden +4 with an R +6 sample. Has Cornyn/Hegar in a dead heat.

https://github.com/GetCitizenData/VoteByMail/blob/master/VoteByMail-Texas/Modeling/October/Corrected Texas VBM Toplines 10_29_20.pdf

So they're just gonna alter their polls after release based on public feedback. Seems like a pretty bad idea as a strategy.

[Biff Tannen 45697]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Ok that goofy Citizen Data poll has been updated and is now Biden +4 with an R +6 sample. Has Cornyn/Hegar in a dead heat.

If Hegar keeps it within 10 I will be impressed.

[Huckleberry 33058]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

If Hegar keeps it within 10 I will be impressed.

Just based on the campaigns and general mood, I would think that if Hegar keeps it within 5 then Biden has a genuine chance to win Texas.

[The Dog 44074]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

So they're just gonna alter their polls after release based on public feedback. Seems like a pretty bad idea as a strategy.

Definitely doesn't pass the smell test but it's also possible someone just goofed. 

Bad look for them regardless.

[SydneyCarton 48145]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

If Hegar keeps it within 10 I will be impressed.

I understand your sentiment, but feel like this is the wrong word. It seems unfair to be impressed by anything she's done as a candidate. Unless we're playing the "I'm impressed by how bad she fucking sucked"

[Brisketexan 105194]

1 hour ago, yoladu said:

538 has the chance of Biden winning at it's highest so far in this campaign.

89% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

for perspective..

538 on election day in 2016 had Hillary Clinton at 71.4% chance of winning.

Here's the way that PTSD Brisket reads that.  Hillary had a 28.6% chance of losing.  Obviously, that was too fucking high.  Today, Biden has an 11% chance of losing.  That's still 38% of Hillary's chance of losing.  I don't like it being that high.  Yes, I know the math doesn't translate exactly that way.  But still.  Gimme a Biden 95% chance or better.  Then I might breathe a bit.

[Planet Houston 4930]

I'm watching a live discussion with Jon Meacham right now.  He says that he's been talking to insiders on both sides, who are paying a lot of money for internal polls.  The universal consensus is that if the election were held right now (i.e., no  major bombshells that shift votes on election day) it would be a rout for Biden, in the 400 EV range.

Just reporting the news, don't shoot the messenger...

Edited October 29, 2020 by Planet Houston

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I understand your sentiment, but feel like this is the wrong word. It seems unfair to be impressed by anything she's done as a candidate. Unless we're playing the "I'm impressed by how bad she fucking sucked"

Yesssss. The thing is, I listened to her interview once and she came across much better but her approach just didn't really get out there with a sustained attack (not against Cornyn although you can go there and eventually she did) but an attack on why you should vote for her beyond platitudes. The platitudes work on some people, but you can get a message across and still be simple with it. Key ideas and short. Change it up so people don't get bored, but keep throwing the early phrases in there once in awhile so people don't forget. I know Warren wasn't popular with everyone but if I say, "I have a plan for that." you know exactly who I was/am talking about. That's the type of message I believe she lacked early on. As a challenger, you're fighting an uphill battle.

[Pato del Muerto 52553]

9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Well that's just fucking weird.

That doesn’t even include the final straw for us, when we provided our church with the names of our babies’ godparents and the response back was we need to contact their church to make sure they are Catholics in good standing. The implication being are they dropping their envelopes into the basket. Yeah no- they’re Catholic and not excommunicated so that’s all you need to know. Called SILs church and asked what they needed, got the right answer so we baptized them there. But that’s the last sacrament they have received, and will receive unless they choose so as adults. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Here's the way that PTSD Brisket reads that.  Hillary had a 28.6% chance of losing.  Obviously, that was too fucking high.  Today, Biden has an 11% chance of losing.  That's still 38% of Hillary's chance of losing.  I don't like it being that high.  Yes, I know the math doesn't translate exactly that way.  But still.  Gimme a Biden 95% chance or better.  Then I might breathe a bit.

I'd need a 99% and everyone laughing at the idea of Florida, Texas, and Pennsylvania going red, but yes the signs do look good as of today.

[SydneyCarton 48145]

4 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Yesssss. The thing is, I listened to her interview once and she came across much better but her approach just didn't really get out there with a sustained attack (not against Cornyn although you can go there and eventually she did) but an attack on why you should vote for her beyond platitudes. The platitudes work on some people, but you can get a message across and still be simple with it. Key ideas and short. Change it up so people don't get bored, but keep throwing the early phrases in there once in awhile so people don't forget. I know Warren wasn't popular with everyone but if I say, "I have a plan for that." you know exactly who I was/am talking about. That's the type of message I believe she lacked early on. As a challenger, you're fighting an uphill battle.

I get it. I've seen her speak, she's great. But her CAMPAIGN has sucked. I don't even see her pop up with  speaking and events on FB. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I get it. I've seen her speak, she's great. But her CAMPAIGN has sucked. I don't even see her pop up with  speaking and events on FB. 

That's what I mean--she isn't getting that out there at all really. I got a few emails asking for money after I voted in the D primary, a first. But I had to seek out info about her and most voters are not going to do that. She needed a Presence with a capital P.

[Storm the Field 5300]

1 hour ago, yoladu said:

538 has the chance of Biden winning at it's highest so far in this campaign.

89% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

for perspective..

538 on election day in 2016 had Hillary Clinton at 71.4% chance of winning.

We're well past the point in the 2016 race where the race had become a toss-up and none of us really realized it. National polls, state polls, district polls and the generic ballot had all narrowed down to a few points at best and should have been setting off alarms.

5 days out (11/3/16):

RCP National Average: Clinton +1.3 (46.6-45.3) 

538 National Average: Clinton +3.0 (48.4-45.4)

538 Model: Clinton 66%, Trump 34%. 

Generic Ballot: DEM +3. Down from DEM +6 just 2 weeks prior. Dropped to DEM +0.8 by 11/7. 

[The Dog 44074]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Gimme a Biden 95% chance or better.  Then I might breathe a bit.

Challenge accepted:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

9 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

I'm watching a live discussion with Jon Meacham right now.  He says that he's been talking to insiders on both sides, who are paying a lot of money for internal polls.  The universal consensus is that if the election were held right now (i.e., no  major bombshells that shift votes on election day) it would be a rout for Biden, in the 400 EV range.

Just reporting the news, don't shoot the messenger...

I hope that is correct.  By the way, Jon Meacham has a new documentary on HBO called The Soul of America.   It goes through the history of this country compared to today and I thought it was quite interesting.  Also, I think Jon is a total bad ass as far as historians go.

[thepop 4409]

1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

We're well past the point in the 2016 race where the race had become a toss-up and none of us really realized it. National polls, state polls, district polls and the generic ballot had all narrowed down to a few points at best and should have been setting off alarms.

5 days out (11/3/16):

RCP National Average: Clinton +1.3 (46.6-45.3) 

538 National Average: Clinton +3.0 (48.4-45.4)

538 Model: Clinton 66%, Trump 34%. 

Generic Ballot: DEM +3. Down from DEM +6 just 2 weeks prior. Dropped to DEM +0.8 by 11/7. 

Yeah I never realized how close it was in 2016 or that Trump actually led at certain times. I just assumed like everyone else "no way he wins. Hillary has a 71% chance to win so we are good".

['stache 21827]

1 hour ago, Mdhorn said:

Yep, after immigrating illegally, they side with the party that doesn't want them there.  

Cubans who reach US Soil are automatically legal (unless something has changed) and there is always an unspoken tension between "legal" Hispanic immigrants and those "illegals." There is some arrogance (real or perceived) from Cubans especially against Mexican and Central American immigrants. Same way some 3rd and 4th generation Mexican Americans in South Texas can be really hostile or outright racist against new "illegal" immigrants. Or so I've heard.