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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,559

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Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Feels like there is no momentum in the race going into the last weekend. Yes, I believe that Biden is up in the right places but is his lead increasing? Or staying flat? Leading does not equal momentum.

It’s also easy to discredit Hillary’s unpopularity or Comey’s late statements/investigation in why trump won in 2016. But it still required Americans to vote for Trump. And while there were trump fanatics in 2016, the fanatics were characters on the fringes. Trumps fanatics have grown over 4 years and many include people you interact with every day but they know better to openly demonstrate it.

I swing between Biden has this under control, over to white America (and Hispanic to some extent) loves trumps tough guy image and trump eeks out a victory.

this feels like a UT game where we’re 21 point favorites. You know we should win but we still have to put points on the board.

Yep.  I am a lifelong fan of:

UT sports

Houston pro sports teams

This country

That is 40,000 lbs of history books telling me "oh, yeah.....when all the stars seem aligned and you should win easily?  That's when you fucking lose it all."   Every time any team I love has won anything meaningful, even with a huge lead, I spent the last 25% of the game on pins and needles, WAITING for the wheels to come off, as they have so many times before.  Remember, even after 4th and 5, USC had a chance to win.  Not until the clock shows zero can I exhale.

The clock still has 4 days on it.

I'll be over here, holding my breath like Willie.

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Homercles

Homercles 10,205

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47 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the ledge is whipped dog syndrome.  someone compared it to 05 Texas OU the other day and I think that is right.  One side has all the firepower, but instead of just sitting back and enjoying it, they just nervously look at the garbage of recent past.

End up like a dog who’s been beat too much, till you spend half your life just coverin up

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dingleberryswitzer

dingleberryswitzer 2,724

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39 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Man, I don’t know how some of y’all are going to make it through the next five days.

Whenever I get depressed from reading about politics, I go read about football.  When I get depressed from football, I come back here.  It's like the yin and yang or something.  

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13,049

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14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  I am a lifelong fan of:

UT sports

Houston pro sports teams

This country

That is 40,000 lbs of history books telling me "oh, yeah.....when all the stars seem aligned and you should win easily?  That's when you fucking lose it all."   Every time any team I love has won anything meaningful, even with a huge lead, I spent the last 25% of the game on pins and needles, WAITING for the wheels to come off, as they have so many times before.  Remember, even after 4th and 5, USC had a chance to win.  Not until the clock shows zero can I exhale.

The clock still has 4 days on it.

I'll be over here, holding my breath like Willie.

Did you happen to see McFarland? The XC movie with Kevin Costner as the coach? Based on a true story, and long before it was a movie, that school was legendary (ok, maybe to families like ours that have a history of XC and other not as popular sports). I won't go into the whole plot, but for brevity's sake, they  overcame a lot (understatement) and were in the big race in the biggest state (California) and they deserved to be there. But race starts and one of their best runners has a 'moment,' forgets everything he learned, takes off and goes into oxygen debt. He's gassed.

Oh no, race is lost? Nope, it is the last runner, the heavyset one, the one nobody thinks will ever count who comes through and they win. On points. It makes for a nice story, a feel good moment in the theater but it really happened. (Maybe not quite as smoothly as Hollywood made it out to be but still). Football and baseball are great sports and the bruiser GOP is trying to tackle and trip people on their way to the polls and steal their signals. But we're running around and jumping over them to reach the finish line. Hold your breath, I know I am, but I'm also figuring we've got some aerobic conditioning on our side. I'm on the ledge, but I'm staying focused.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10,911

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6 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

I don't want to have to dig into my Gopher football fandom history to show you that none of us are letting off the gas until the clock shows 0:00.

It's 1999 and Baylor football is up 24-21 on UNLV with under 30 seconds left in the game and new HC Kevin Steele decides to run it up the middle in an effort to get a score and make it 30-21. Then this happens...

 

I kind of got a queasy feeling when they announced Kamala was going to Texas instead of just doing a Florida and Pennsylvania world tour, but I have more confidence in them than Kevin Steele.

 

 

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10,752

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1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Meanwhile, I just cruised the LSU and Ag sites and they are still getting ready for the Trump victory on the 3rd and the shy Trump voters coming through nationwide. A lot of them haven't voted yet apparently. One guy started a people who should be locked up thread but no replies yet.

He wants Dr. Fauci arrested for incompetence, conspiracy/treason/murder.

Here's the copy

image.thumb.png.00083f05d3090c0f9d0691ce823b1f22.png

Zuckerberg.  lollers.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,546

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To put a point on the early vote total:  we are currently at 84M, with varying days left of EV.  Texas and Florida are shutting down, though.  I'm not sure where we'll end up, maybe 90M?

The total EV in 2016 was 58M.  The total vote was 129M.  That leaves 71M having voted on election day.

If that holds, the total vote in 2020 will likely be 160M or more.  If in-person election day voting rises proportional to the EV and mail-in numbers, that would imply a total national turnout of nearly 200M voters.  I think that's probably way optimistic, but it's interesting nonetheless.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Let's see, we have UT @ Okie State tomorrow.  No way I can watch that sober.

Then Sunday, it will be impossible to watch the Cowboys sober.  

No point in taking Monday off.

Hello, Tuesday!

My plan is start this evening, most of the day Saturday, nurse the hangover with some bloodys and yardwork beers on Sunday, and to celebrate 'Standard Time is Drinking Time', which we celebrate first Sunday in November in my family.  Take Monday off and take daughter fishing on Tuesday morning since there's no school and I just think our usual fishing spot won't be crowded.  Try to stay sober and focused until the results start coming in at 6pm-CST.  Stay relative sane until about 9pm-CST when the wheels fall off my sobriety and my country.  I'd like to have the discipline to have a hard stop time that night and get to bed, but there's no point in lying to myself because nobody knows what this shitshow is gonna look like.  Dust myself off on Wednesday morning and try to blend in as a responsible pillar of the community.  

Edited by Lobo
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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10,140

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16 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

This is why statisticians and pollsters suck... he's basically assuming everything and leaping to outcomes. Like EV participation / participation is not completely different in 2020 with the pandemic.

"conditional on having a good vote model"... well you don't so quit. I expect pollsters to be out of jobs after this election is over no matter the outcome.

Everyone go vote... quit telling people it might be "mathematically impossible"

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9,898

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29 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

I don't want to have to dig into my Gopher football fandom history to show you that none of us are letting off the gas until the clock shows 0:00.

We didn’t win a game at Bates until my senior year.  4 fucking years.  We rioted after the game and forced the Lewiston PD to use tear gas on us.  1500 rich kids in Maine. It was glorious 

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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

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Don't know if this one has been posted yet, but NBC's election page is tracking early voting, broken down by age group, party affiliation, and gender. 

I try to avoid drawing too many conclusions from early voting, so let's just call this speculation for the hell of it.  Take it with a huge grain of salt.  

For example, Pennsylvania - link

Comparing mail in ballot requests vs. combo mail-in returned and in-person early voting, the Dems request 63% of the ballots, but have 68% of MI+EV have been Dem. That seems like a good sign, as it could indicate a better Dem turnout on MI votes.  Or it could just indicate that a higher percentage of Dems are doing EV, even relative the percent that requested MI.  But overall, a good sign. 

Looking at the gender breakdown, 56% women is a good sign.  But it may just reflect more women voting early, rather than voting in total. 

The biggest head scratcher to me is the total MI+EV compared to their 2016 totals.  They are less than 36% of the total 2016 vote.  Now, that is an increase of 1400% from MI+EV in 2016, so maybe it is just a massive pain in the ass to do so in Penn.  But, (speculating) it may show a lack of effectiveness in the Dems pushing MI+EVs in the state, which is concerning for their effectiveness in total. And certainly mailing issues have been a problem. 

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,546

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15 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Let's see, we have UT @ Okie State tomorrow.  No way I can watch that sober.

Then Sunday, it will be impossible to watch the Cowboys sober.  

No point in taking Monday off.

Hello, Tuesday!

I get to drive to Corpus Christi and back on Saturday.  Come 5 PM, I will do my best to start catching up.  What a kick in the nuts.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,546

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7 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

This is why statisticians and pollsters suck... he's basically assuming everything and leaping to outcomes. Like EV participation / participation is not completely different in 2020 with the pandemic.

"conditional on having a good vote model"... well you don't so quit.

That's not quite true.  A few days ago, I posted an October survey of Texas likely voters that laid out their plans.  Obviously, the pandemic was cooked into those numbers.  They do have SOME sense of when people will vote, at least in some states.

Voter-turnout-expectations-2020.jpg

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Because Paul Rudd is awesome.

$50 says Qanon picks up on this and claims that Rudd must be part of the liberal Clinton cabal.  And he stays so young because he eats the flesh of newborns.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,546

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15 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

To put a point on the early vote total:  we are currently at 84M, with varying days left of EV.  Texas and Florida are shutting down, though.  I'm not sure where we'll end up, maybe 90M?

The total EV in 2016 was 58M.  The total vote was 129M.  That leaves 71M having voted on election day.

If that holds, the total vote in 2020 will likely be 160M or more.  If in-person election day voting rises proportional to the EV and mail-in numbers, that would imply a total national turnout of nearly 200M voters.  I think that's probably way optimistic, but it's interesting nonetheless.

Using the "expected" EV for Texas (60%) and extrapolating nationally, that would point to ~ 150M turnout when all is said and done.  Kinda specious reasoning, but whatevs.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,271

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Big day in NV. State holiday and final day of early voting, when Dems usually pile up the early votes in Clark County. Firewall should get to well over 80K today (currently 76K). Even better, mail-in votes will keep coming in over the weekend with no in-person votes to offset. I'd think 85K by Monday morning is reachable.

Ralston says he'll probably be ready to make a call on the race either late Sunday or Monday depending on where things stand after this weekend.

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14,083

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2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Big day in NV. State holiday and final day of early voting, when Dems usually pile up the early votes in Clark County. Firewall should get to well over 80K today (currently 76K). Even better, mail-in votes will keep coming in over the weekend with no in-person votes to offset. I'd think 85K by Monday morning is reachable.

Ralston says he'll probably be ready to make a call on the race either late Sunday or Monday depending on where things stand after this weekend.

defoe44.thumb.gif.ef784a5ae30670167ea01c

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,477

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3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Feels like there is no momentum in the race going into the last weekend. Yes, I believe that Biden is up in the right places but is his lead increasing? Or staying flat? Leading does not equal momentum.

It’s also easy to discredit Hillary’s unpopularity or Comey’s late statements/investigation in why trump won in 2016. But it still required Americans to vote for Trump. And while there were trump fanatics in 2016, the fanatics were characters on the fringes. Trumps fanatics have grown over 4 years and many include people you interact with every day but they know better to openly demonstrate it.

I swing between Biden has this under control, over to white America (and Hispanic to some extent) loves trumps tough guy image and trump eeks out a victory.

this feels like a UT game where we’re 21 point favorites. You know we should win but we still have to put points on the board.

If you look at the polls in Georgia, it's pretty clear that there is some momentum favoring Biden.

We will see what the Pennsylvania polls show later today.

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5,503

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22 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

To put a point on the early vote total:  we are currently at 84M, with varying days left of EV.  Texas and Florida are shutting down, though.  I'm not sure where we'll end up, maybe 90M?

The total EV in 2016 was 58M.  The total vote was 129M.  That leaves 71M having voted on election day.

If that holds, the total vote in 2020 will likely be 160M or more.  If in-person election day voting rises proportional to the EV and mail-in numbers, that would imply a total national turnout of nearly 200M voters.  I think that's probably way optimistic, but it's interesting nonetheless.

 In person election day voting is going to go down, though, if you're looking at national numbers.  Many states whose elections in the past were dominated by Election Day voting,  including NY, NJ, and CA, are doing far more early voting and vote by mail than in previous years and have very limited voting on Election Day this year due to Covid.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,271

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Month-long omnibus poll of 51K respondents:

For comparison to 2016:

White non-college down from Trump +27 to Trump +19

White College up from Clinton +3 to Biden +22

Black down from Clinton +80 to Biden +77

Hispanic down from Clinton +35 to Biden +24

Sucks to see the dropoff in minority vote share, but the electorate is still very white and that's still where the margins matter most.

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