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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


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Posted
16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's not quite true.  A few days ago, I posted an October survey of Texas likely voters that laid out their plans.  Obviously, the pandemic was cooked into those numbers.  They do have SOME sense of when people will vote, at least in some states.

Voter-turnout-expectations-2020.jpg

Using these numbers and the 2016 vote totals - we should expect to see  2.26+ million voters on election day.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Month-long omnibus poll of 51K respondents:

For comparison to 2016:

White non-college down from Trump +27 to Trump +19

White College up from Clinton +3 to Biden +22

Black down from Clinton +80 to Biden +77

Hispanic down from Clinton +35 to Biden +24

Sucks to see the dropoff in minority vote share, but the electorate is still very white and that's still where the margins matter most.

That white education gap is just insane and I don't see it going anywhere anytime soon. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

 

 In person election day voting is going to go down, though, if you're looking at national numbers.  Many states whose elections in the past were dominated by Election Day voting,  including NY, NJ, and CA, are doing far more early voting and vote by mail than in previous years and have very limited voting on Election Day this year due to Covid.

Is this conjecture or is there survey data indicating this to be true?  For instance, Texas expects a 26% of total votes to be cast on election day.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, kevwun said:

I am going to drink for most of the weekend.  Then I'm going to sober up on Monday in preparation for getting shitfaced on Tuesday night.

My plan exactly. Once I get through this workday it's mostly cruising until Tuesday.

Edited by BradInATX
Posted
2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

uhhhh, ya sure?  I guess the argument would be they are acting to hold on to power by whatever means necessary, but destroying the country is a byproduct of those means.

They will fail.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Using these numbers and the 2016 vote totals - we should expect to see  2.26+ million voters on election day.

I get 4.1M voters.  Assuming 9.5M EV at 60% of total, that says 15.8M total vote.  26% of that number is 4.1M voters.

Posted

There's an interesting sort of paradox now. With huge EV/MI totals skewing D, a higher turn out on Election Day would probably benefit Rs more so than Ds based on voting patterns.

But higher turnout overall favors Ds.

Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is this conjecture or is there survey data indicating this to be true?  For instance, Texas expects a 26% of total votes to be cast on election day.

I don't know about surveys.  But NY never even had early voting before this year.  NJ and (I think) CA, mailed ballots to all registered voters.  At least in NJ, where I live, early voting was extremely limited in past cycles.  I've never early voted.  This year, almost everyone is voting by mail, with ballots mailed to all registered voters, and at least one drop box in every town.  My understanding is that CA is the same.  The change in voting systems in these states, and maybe other states, means that there will be far more early votes than would have been possible in past years.  

Posted
10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Month-long omnibus poll of 51K respondents:

For comparison to 2016:

White non-college down from Trump +27 to Trump +19

White College up from Clinton +3 to Biden +22

Black down from Clinton +80 to Biden +77

Hispanic down from Clinton +35 to Biden +24

Sucks to see the dropoff in minority vote share, but the electorate is still very white and that's still where the margins matter most.

On the issue of hispanics....I just don't know what to say.  We've got a real "I've made it, so fuck you" thing going on with us, plus a decent percentage of "Beelzebub says he's pro-life, so I'm voting for him" going on.

As for black voters, I think it's interesting.  The small drop in vote share is interesting, but I don't think it's nearly as interesting as what we're looking for in turnout difference.  If Hillary was +3% in favorability of black voters, but -10% in turnout of black voters, then the 3% move is more than made up for by increased turnout.  We'll see.

5 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

That white education gap is just insane and I don't see it going anywhere anytime soon. 

It is the poison in the veins of our society.  Angry, scared, vengeful uneducated white people who are (in some cases, without even thinking it through) taking the position of "if I can't have a society that guarantees me supremacy, then NOBODY can have that society -- burn it down!"

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I get 4.1M voters.  Assuming 9.5M EV at 60% of total, that says 15.8M total vote.  26% of that number is 4.1M voters.

 I was trying to give a very conservative estimate of what election day might look like by assuming if only 26% of the 2016 voters actually voted on ED.

Edited by Hiphopopotamos
Posted
1 minute ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 I was trying to give a very conservative estimate of what election day might look like by assuming if only 26% of the 2016 voters actually voted on ED.

Understood.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

I got one text from the GOP about voting this year.  It was about 15 minutes after the OU game ended and I was kind a drunk so I told them to go fuck themselves.  They did not respond back.

Posted
1 hour ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Whenever I get depressed from reading about politics, I go read about football.  When I get depressed from football, I come back here.  It's like the yin and yang or something.  

I think it more of a vicious cycle of self loathing.

Posted
1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

Let's see, we have UT @ Okie State tomorrow.  No way I can watch that sober.

Then Sunday, it will be impossible to watch the Cowboys sober.  

No point in taking Monday off.

Hello, Tuesday!

pro tip: don't watch the joneses

it makes the whole weekend much easier

Posted
29 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Month-long omnibus poll of 51K respondents:

For comparison to 2016:

White non-college down from Trump +27 to Trump +19

White College up from Clinton +3 to Biden +22

Black down from Clinton +80 to Biden +77

Hispanic down from Clinton +35 to Biden +24

Sucks to see the dropoff in minority vote share, but the electorate is still very white and that's still where the margins matter most.

 

Posted
12 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Got my first voting thing from the GOP, where they scraped my info from god knows where and decided i have some star trek deep space 9 style name.

Fewer.png

Got the same text at 10:25.  I've already voted though.  What a shame.

Posted
12 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Got my first voting thing from the GOP, where they scraped my info from god knows where and decided i have some star trek deep space 9 style name.

Fewer.png

If their text banking system is the same as I have used with Texas Democrats, they will unfortunately not be able to see gif responses.

Posted (edited)

538 hits 89/10. Widest margin yet.

And the 10% chance for Trump is basically 2.5% chance of winning PV, 7.5% of losing PV but winning EC.

I think 2.5% to win PV is overly generous by about 2.5%.

Edited by Storm the Field
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
33 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

That white education gap is just insane and I don't see it going anywhere anytime soon. 

No wonder the dems want free college education. And the republicans don’t like unions, whose membership is mostly non-college educated. 

Posted
56 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If that holds, the total vote in 2020 will likely be 160M or more.  If in-person election day voting rises proportional to the EV and mail-in numbers, that would imply a total national turnout of nearly 200M voters.  I think that's probably way optimistic, but it's interesting nonetheless.

2010 census: americans aged 18 or older = 234.6m

that number has increased in the last 10 years, so let's swag it 240m 18 or over in 2020

200m voters is an 83% turnout of eligible voters which is unpossible given the total number of registered voters per this source:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/number-of-registered-voters-by-state

2/3rds of states sit between 61% and 72% of eligible citizens registered to vote.

 

Posted
29 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I don't know about surveys.  But NY never even had early voting before this year.  NJ and (I think) CA, mailed ballots to all registered voters.  At least in NJ, where I live, early voting was extremely limited in past cycles.  I've never early voted.  This year, almost everyone is voting by mail, with ballots mailed to all registered voters, and at least one drop box in every town.  My understanding is that CA is the same.  The change in voting systems in these states, and maybe other states, means that there will be far more early votes than would have been possible in past years.  

Yeah well in NJ you can’t even pump your own damn gas, and in California they don’t want you to pump any gas at all. Do I have to spell it out for you?

Posted
57 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's not quite true.  A few days ago, I posted an October survey of Texas likely voters that laid out their plans.  Obviously, the pandemic was cooked into those numbers.  They do have SOME sense of when people will vote, at least in some states.

Voter-turnout-expectations-2020.jpg

Based on that and votes in then they are projecting a voter turnout in Texas of over 73% of registered voters.  I just don't see that happening and it won't be within their "margin of error"

Posted
1 minute ago, South Austin said:

spacer.png

I am definitely very, very, undude.

Let there be no mistake, in that film, I am unquestionably a Walter type.

am-i-the-only-one-around-here.gif

 

I freely confess to that vibe these days.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

538 hits 89/10. Widest margin yet.

And the 10% chance for Trump is basically 2.5% chance of winning PV, 7.5% of losing PV but winning EC.

I think 2.5% to win PV is overly generous by about 2.5%.

What does Prairie View have to do with anything? 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I am definitely very, very, undude.

Let there be no mistake, in that film, I am unquestionably a Walter type.

am-i-the-only-one-around-here.gif

 

I freely confess to that vibe these days.

spacer.png

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

spacer.png

Most prescient line of the movie. As absurd as his assessments sounded at the time (“It’s not her toe”), Walter was right about most things. 



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