2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[The Dog 44070]

 

[South Austin 52523]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

[Hiphopopotamos 20876]

16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's not quite true.  A few days ago, I posted an October survey of Texas likely voters that laid out their plans.  Obviously, the pandemic was cooked into those numbers.  They do have SOME sense of when people will vote, at least in some states.

Using these numbers and the 2016 vote totals - we should expect to see  2.26+ million voters on election day.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Month-long omnibus poll of 51K respondents:

For comparison to 2016:

White non-college down from Trump +27 to Trump +19

White College up from Clinton +3 to Biden +22

Black down from Clinton +80 to Biden +77

Hispanic down from Clinton +35 to Biden +24

Sucks to see the dropoff in minority vote share, but the electorate is still very white and that's still where the margins matter most.

That white education gap is just insane and I don't see it going anywhere anytime soon. 

[Saint Tacky 1614]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Just telling you why I will never, ever, ever victory dance till there's 00:00 on the clock.

Pfft

[jimmyjazz 45999]

8 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

 

 In person election day voting is going to go down, though, if you're looking at national numbers.  Many states whose elections in the past were dominated by Election Day voting,  including NY, NJ, and CA, are doing far more early voting and vote by mail than in previous years and have very limited voting on Election Day this year due to Covid.

Is this conjecture or is there survey data indicating this to be true?  For instance, Texas expects a 26% of total votes to be cast on election day.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

I am going to drink for most of the weekend.  Then I'm going to sober up on Monday in preparation for getting shitfaced on Tuesday night.

My plan exactly. Once I get through this workday it's mostly cruising until Tuesday.

Edited October 30, 2020 by BradInATX

[Rimbo 26008]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

uhhhh, ya sure?  I guess the argument would be they are acting to hold on to power by whatever means necessary, but destroying the country is a byproduct of those means.

They will fail.

[jimmyjazz 45999]

5 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Using these numbers and the 2016 vote totals - we should expect to see  2.26+ million voters on election day.

I get 4.1M voters.  Assuming 9.5M EV at 60% of total, that says 15.8M total vote.  26% of that number is 4.1M voters.

[BradInATX 9208]

Also, if it took that tweet to make you realize Brett Favre was a complete douche, you need your douchedar recalibrated.

[Bateshorn 9928]

Fuck. All. Y'all.

 

[Longhornmaniac8 255]

There's an interesting sort of paradox now. With huge EV/MI totals skewing D, a higher turn out on Election Day would probably benefit Rs more so than Ds based on voting patterns.

But higher turnout overall favors Ds.

[lemonlime 5503]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is this conjecture or is there survey data indicating this to be true?  For instance, Texas expects a 26% of total votes to be cast on election day.

I don't know about surveys.  But NY never even had early voting before this year.  NJ and (I think) CA, mailed ballots to all registered voters.  At least in NJ, where I live, early voting was extremely limited in past cycles.  I've never early voted.  This year, almost everyone is voting by mail, with ballots mailed to all registered voters, and at least one drop box in every town.  My understanding is that CA is the same.  The change in voting systems in these states, and maybe other states, means that there will be far more early votes than would have been possible in past years.  

[Brisketexan 105168]

10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Month-long omnibus poll of 51K respondents:

For comparison to 2016:

White non-college down from Trump +27 to Trump +19

White College up from Clinton +3 to Biden +22

Black down from Clinton +80 to Biden +77

Hispanic down from Clinton +35 to Biden +24

Sucks to see the dropoff in minority vote share, but the electorate is still very white and that's still where the margins matter most.

On the issue of hispanics....I just don't know what to say.  We've got a real "I've made it, so fuck you" thing going on with us, plus a decent percentage of "Beelzebub says he's pro-life, so I'm voting for him" going on.

As for black voters, I think it's interesting.  The small drop in vote share is interesting, but I don't think it's nearly as interesting as what we're looking for in turnout difference.  If Hillary was +3% in favorability of black voters, but -10% in turnout of black voters, then the 3% move is more than made up for by increased turnout.  We'll see.

5 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

That white education gap is just insane and I don't see it going anywhere anytime soon. 

It is the poison in the veins of our society.  Angry, scared, vengeful uneducated white people who are (in some cases, without even thinking it through) taking the position of "if I can't have a society that guarantees me supremacy, then NOBODY can have that society -- burn it down!"

[Longhornmaniac8 255]

Something else worth noting: a brief search of the weather in various battleground places looks to be good weather on Tuesday basically all across the country.

Nothing there that would hamper turnout.

[Hiphopopotamos 20876]

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I get 4.1M voters.  Assuming 9.5M EV at 60% of total, that says 15.8M total vote.  26% of that number is 4.1M voters.

 I was trying to give a very conservative estimate of what election day might look like by assuming if only 26% of the 2016 voters actually voted on ED.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Hiphopopotamos

[Hagbard Celine 10892]

1 hour ago, Homercles said:

End up like a dog who’s been beat too much, till you spend half your life just coverin up

UNCOVER!

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Got my first voting thing from the GOP, where they scraped my info from god knows where and decided i have some star trek deep space 9 style name.

[jimmyjazz 45999]

1 minute ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 I was trying to give a very conservative estimate of what election day might look like by assuming if only 26% of the 2016 voters actually voted on ED.

Understood.

[kevwun 15809]

I got one text from the GOP about voting this year.  It was about 15 minutes after the OU game ended and I was kind a drunk so I told them to go fuck themselves.  They did not respond back.

[Hagbard Celine 10892]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

damnit.  god dammit to hell.  permaban.

[Goredho 17413]

1 hour ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Whenever I get depressed from reading about politics, I go read about football.  When I get depressed from football, I come back here.  It's like the yin and yang or something.  

I think it more of a vicious cycle of self loathing.

[Hagbard Celine 10892]

1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

Let's see, we have UT @ Okie State tomorrow.  No way I can watch that sober.

Then Sunday, it will be impossible to watch the Cowboys sober.  

No point in taking Monday off.

Hello, Tuesday!

pro tip: don't watch the joneses

it makes the whole weekend much easier

[Aqua Buddha 14599]

29 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Month-long omnibus poll of 51K respondents:

For comparison to 2016:

White non-college down from Trump +27 to Trump +19

White College up from Clinton +3 to Biden +22

Black down from Clinton +80 to Biden +77

Hispanic down from Clinton +35 to Biden +24

Sucks to see the dropoff in minority vote share, but the electorate is still very white and that's still where the margins matter most.

 

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

12 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Got my first voting thing from the GOP, where they scraped my info from god knows where and decided i have some star trek deep space 9 style name.

Got the same text at 10:25.  I've already voted though.  What a shame.

[thepop 4409]

12 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Got my first voting thing from the GOP, where they scraped my info from god knows where and decided i have some star trek deep space 9 style name.

If their text banking system is the same as I have used with Texas Democrats, they will unfortunately not be able to see gif responses.

[David Dennison 18939]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 

[Storm the Field 5297]

538 hits 89/10. Widest margin yet.

And the 10% chance for Trump is basically 2.5% chance of winning PV, 7.5% of losing PV but winning EC.

I think 2.5% to win PV is overly generous by about 2.5%.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Storm the Field

[Pato del Muerto 52532]

33 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

That white education gap is just insane and I don't see it going anywhere anytime soon. 

No wonder the dems want free college education. And the republicans don’t like unions, whose membership is mostly non-college educated. 

[Hagbard Celine 10892]

56 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If that holds, the total vote in 2020 will likely be 160M or more.  If in-person election day voting rises proportional to the EV and mail-in numbers, that would imply a total national turnout of nearly 200M voters.  I think that's probably way optimistic, but it's interesting nonetheless.

2010 census: americans aged 18 or older = 234.6m

that number has increased in the last 10 years, so let's swag it 240m 18 or over in 2020

200m voters is an 83% turnout of eligible voters which is unpossible given the total number of registered voters per this source:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/number-of-registered-voters-by-state

2/3rds of states sit between 61% and 72% of eligible citizens registered to vote.

 

[Chooky 13317]

Am I supposed to still be shitting Pennsylvania mailboxes or nah?

[Pato del Muerto 52532]

29 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I don't know about surveys.  But NY never even had early voting before this year.  NJ and (I think) CA, mailed ballots to all registered voters.  At least in NJ, where I live, early voting was extremely limited in past cycles.  I've never early voted.  This year, almost everyone is voting by mail, with ballots mailed to all registered voters, and at least one drop box in every town.  My understanding is that CA is the same.  The change in voting systems in these states, and maybe other states, means that there will be far more early votes than would have been possible in past years.  

Yeah well in NJ you can’t even pump your own damn gas, and in California they don’t want you to pump any gas at all. Do I have to spell it out for you?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

37 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Pfft

The nail in the coffin to force Nebraska's move to the Big 10. How sweet. 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10329]

57 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's not quite true.  A few days ago, I posted an October survey of Texas likely voters that laid out their plans.  Obviously, the pandemic was cooked into those numbers.  They do have SOME sense of when people will vote, at least in some states.

Based on that and votes in then they are projecting a voter turnout in Texas of over 73% of registered voters.  I just don't see that happening and it won't be within their "margin of error"

[SizzleChest 8284]

2 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Am I supposed to still be shitting Pennsylvania mailboxes or nah?

[South Austin 52523]

3 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Am I supposed to still be shitting Pennsylvania mailboxes or nah?

[SubliminalHorn 6809]

3 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Am I supposed to still be shitting Pennsylvania mailboxes or nah?

You might want to eat more fiber 

[Beau Vine 54297]

1 hour ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

That Favre tweet of support for Trump is as off target as one of his 336 career interceptions.

[Chooky 13317]

Off topic, but @Bama Chick dropped the ball and squandered an opportunity and the cosmic chain reaction probably sealed a Trump victory.  

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Chooky

[Brisketexan 105168]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

I am definitely very, very, undude.

Let there be no mistake, in that film, I am unquestionably a Walter type.

 

I freely confess to that vibe these days.

[Huckleberry 33039]

14 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

538 hits 89/10. Widest margin yet.

And the 10% chance for Trump is basically 2.5% chance of winning PV, 7.5% of losing PV but winning EC.

I think 2.5% to win PV is overly generous by about 2.5%.

What does Prairie View have to do with anything? 

[4th&Five 41570]

Decent Human 2020

 

[South Austin 52523]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I am definitely very, very, undude.

Let there be no mistake, in that film, I am unquestionably a Walter type.

 

I freely confess to that vibe these days.

[Pancho 44876]

What movie are those gifs from

[Chooky 13317]

Just now, South Austin said:

[SubliminalHorn 6809]

Just now, Pancho said:

What movie are those gifs from

Forrest Gump

[Eastwood 4394]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

What movie are those gifs from

[Pancho 44876]

Just now, SubliminalHorn said:

Forrest Gump

My initial thought was Sister Act 2: Back in the Habit

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

What movie are those gifs from

A Serbian Film

[BrickHorn 18255]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Most prescient line of the movie. As absurd as his assessments sounded at the time (“It’s not her toe”), Walter was right about most things.