2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[tantric superman 4,667]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

It is the poison in the veins of our society.  Angry, scared, vengeful uneducated white people who are (in some cases, without even thinking it through) taking the position of "if I can't have a society that guarantees me supremacy, then NOBODY can have that society -- burn it down!

You might  be downplaying the way the Republicans have made this into an issue of the vile nature of liberal college education.  In other words, it's not so much people being anti college education or striving for a college education.  It's that liberal colleges teach students to directly assault the values of the rural and the uneducated.   Dems have not only done a terrible job of trying to counteract this argument, but they have embraced the fact that the liberal educated have a duty to stand against the values represented by the blue collar worker.

The divide will exist as long as the universities are politicized.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

A "refined" version of the Texas voter turnout, using October 29 data from Texas Tribune:

=====

9M total early votes (7.9M in person, 1.1M absentee, squinting a bit because their numbers don't quite jibe + 1% not voting/don't know)

Add 0.5M in person votes as a SWAG for today's voting --> 8.4M total in person early votes

Using survey response of 60% early in-person votes --> 14M total votes in Texas

Predict:  3.6M votes in person on election day (26%), 1.8M absentee votes (13%)

=====

In summary:

8.4M early in person

3.6M election day in person

1.8M absentee (0.7M outstanding)

13.8M huh

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

Just now, tantric superman said:

Dems have not only done a terrible job of trying to counteract this argument, but they have embraced the fact that the liberal educated have a duty to stand against the values represented by the blue collar worker.

The divide will exist as long as the universities are politicized.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

It took some digging but that twitter account with the 'wives vote as your husbands vote' is a guy associated with a far right evangelical church group in Moscow, Idaho. They have a polished media presence, but they are a take over the town, state, nation, world in their viewpoint (IOW a cult).

[Irwin F Fletcher 3,550]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

A "refined" version of the Texas voter turnout, using October 29 data from Texas Tribune:

=====

9M total early votes (7.9M in person, 1.1M absentee, squinting a bit because their numbers don't quite jibe + 1% not voting/don't know)

Add 0.5M in person votes as a SWAG for today's voting --> 8.4M total in person early votes

Using survey response of 60% early in-person votes --> 14M total votes in Texas

Predict:  3.6M votes in person on election day (26%), 1.8M absentee votes (13%)

=====

In summary:

8.4M early in person

3.6M election day in person

1.8M absentee (0.7M outstanding)

That would be absolutely insane. A 4M increase from 2016. 

[jimmyjazz 46,124]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

So 13.8 million out of how many registered?

16.2M, which is obviously a huge turnout (85%).  It's hard to believe.  Even 70% turnout would mean 11.3M total votes, which would mean roughly 1.8M votes outstanding, split between remaining absentee + election day in-person voting.  I can't really reconcile it all, because 70% turnout is huge, but only ~ 3X of average early daily totals on election day doesn't seem right either.

[jimmyjazz 46,124]

16.2M, which obviously implies a huge turnout (85%).  It's hard to believe.  Even 70% turnout would mean 11.3M total votes, which would mean roughly 1.8M votes outstanding, split between remaining absentee + election day in-person voting.  I can't really reconcile it all, because 70% turnout is huge, but only ~ 3X of average early daily totals on election day doesn't seem right either.

Edited October 30, 2020 by jimmyjazz

[Ghost of LL 15,539]

 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

2 minutes ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:

That would be absolutely insane. A 4M increase from 2016. 

I’m pretty optimistic but I even have a hard time believing that. Guess we’ll see. 

[Brisketexan 105,320]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

6%....5%....those numbers comfort you?

[Pato del Muerto 52,590]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

Just clear of the margin

[jimmyjazz 46,124]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

13.8M huh

I'm not hanging my hat on it, because it's nuts, it's just what falls out of current vote count and the acceptance of survey results indicating 60% of voters will vote early and in person.  If that number goes to 70%, 75%, whatever, the projections get "more realistic".

Edited October 30, 2020 by jimmyjazz

[Pancho 44,986]

 

[Bateshorn 9,937]

10 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

You might  be downplaying the way the Republicans have made this into an issue of the vile nature of liberal college education.  In other words, it's not so much people being anti college education or striving for a college education.  It's that liberal colleges teach students to directly assault the values of the rural and the uneducated.   Dems have not only done a terrible job of trying to counteract this argument, but they have embraced the fact that the liberal educated have a duty to stand against the values represented by the blue collar worker.

The divide will exist as long as the universities are politicized.

As somebody who has had the gut wrenching and horrifying opportunity to tour Tuol Sleng, I can assure you this isn’t about universities teaching SJW claptrap:  this is a direct assault on the educated, because they represent an opponent to the absolute power the right would like to attain. Education has always been a badge of honor and status on the left, and an object of hatred and fury for the right, even as the leaders of the right reserve elite education for themselves. 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Bateshorn

[Tuco 5,077]

1 hour ago, Saint Tacky said:

Pfft

As a Husker fan, I should be irritated, but with your early vote totals, I'm pretty much loving everything Texas right now.  

[Nope 3,121]

And here’s why they want to stop counting on election night 

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

Looks like Jerry’s storage unit after Kramer sublet half of his half to Newman. 

[Brisketexan 105,320]

8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

As somebody who has had the gut wrenching and horrifying opportunity to tour Tuol Sleng, I can assure you this isn’t about universities teaching SJW claptrap:  this is a direct assault on the educated, because they represent an opponent to the absolute power the right would like to attain. Education has always been a badge of honor and status on the left, and an object of hatred and fury for the right, even as the leaders of the right reserve elite education for themselves. 

This, this, THIS.  Demonization of the educated -- "coastal elites," all that sort of language, is a FOUNDATIONAL play for aspiring authoritarian regimes.  Across the board.  Fascist, maoist, all the -ists -- they all have that in common.

Destroy education and objective truth.

Then replace it with your own "education" (misinformation) and your own "truth" (lies).  All of which just so happen to support the regime taking absolute power, in order to "protect" the country from the "elites" (((SOROS!)))

These plays are old, known, predictable, and being repeated right here in River City.  And we're fucking falling for them. 

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

I couldn't find the cartoon thread.

 

[Chuckie Finster 22,729]

20 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

It took some digging but that twitter account with the 'wives vote as your husbands vote' is a guy associated with a far right evangelical church group in Moscow, Idaho. They have a polished media presence, but they are a take over the town, state, nation, world in their viewpoint (IOW a cult).

smh it's always Russia

[Beau Vine 54,419]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

What movie are those gifs from

[Bateshorn 9,937]

6 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

I couldn't find the cartoon thread.

 

Sigh.  I’ve lived here long enough to see two legendary WaPo cartoonists come and go. 
 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

19 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Sooooo, I'm guessing he decided to stay on the steroid regimen?

14 minutes ago, Tuco said:

As a Husker fan, I should be irritated, but with your early vote totals, I'm pretty much loving everything Texas right now.  

My husband is probably relieved the game got cancelled so he can maintain his bp levels.

[Pato del Muerto 52,590]

9 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

I couldn't find the cartoon thread.

 

Why would he choose the end of October and deprive himself of a few post election panels?

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Why would he choose the end of October and deprive himself of a few post election panels?

 It takes a toll, the stress. He's had some controversy and probably not a few death threats.

[Guest Lobo]

I remember watching the World War II documentary with my father when I was maybe seven years old.  The video clip was of Nazis burning books en masse.  And the voiceover described a climate of hatred as it rattled off statistics about the rounding up and deportation of intellectuals, academics, poets, artists, and writers.  And I had already watched long clips of violent blitzkrieg, and even concentration camp footage.

 But I remember my father telling me during the particular scene I just described, “ that was the worst thing the Germans ever did.”  And I asked him how could arresting intellectuals and burning books be worse than all those bombs and all those sick looking people dying in those camps.  And he told me “They burned those books and arrested the others because they gave people ideas.  Once ideas, questions, and thinking went away...everything else they did was easy.  The uninitiated think the horrors of war are those bombs and those camps.  But the real evil lies in the power to make people capable of that in the first place.  To do that, they have to first stop thinking on their own.”

the condemnation of critical thinking, questioning authority, and classical education is the worst thing we are doing   The idolatry of Trump is a symptom of that disease.  We are already in our book burning phase.  We all ready marking intellectual enemies of the state.  What we do next will come far too easy for some of you.  When you’re out of ammo, the light of ideas will still flame on   

What are you gonna do with yourselves next week?   You can’t go back, we know who you are.  

[Beau Vine 54,419]

50 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

FWIW, in my town of about 80,000 (in San Diego County) we have 5 dropboxes town, plus the county office (about 20 miles away).  Dropboxes are at the library, city hall, the police station, the Elk's lodge, and someplace else that I don't recall at the moment.  Maybe a fire station.  

So do you live in San Marcos?  Because if so, I can set you up for some free food when my wife puts in a pick-up order at Pizza Hut (or wherever) and later realizes she did it for SM, CA instead of SMTX.

[Serak The Preparer 3,431]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

My initial thought was Sister Act 2: Back in the Habit

Nope, they're all Babylon 5 gifs.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This, this, THIS.  Demonization of the educated -- "coastal elites," all that sort of language, is a FOUNDATIONAL play for aspiring authoritarian regimes.  Across the board.  Fascist, maoist, all the -ists -- they all have that in common.

Destroy education and objective truth.

Then replace it with your own "education" (misinformation) and your own "truth" (lies).  All of which just so happen to support the regime taking absolute power, in order to "protect" the country from the "elites" (((SOROS!)))

These plays are old, known, predictable, and being repeated right here in River City.  And we're fucking falling for them. 

Sure, it's an old play and they've dusted it off and they've been using it for the last four years and began before that.

School choice, accountability (can be used for good and improvement but easily manipulated to cudgel as well), challenges to curricula through planned legal actions and publicity.

Betsy DeVos has had an impact through her various schemes.

The organizations funded by quiet or even foreign money groups: Turning Point USA, Campus Reform, Family Research Council, Home School Legal Defense Association (strong Russian influence: good article here: https://archive.thinkprogress.org/americas-biggest-right-wing-homeschooling-group-has-been-networking-with-sanctioned-russians-1f2b5b5ad031/ ), Prager U (their videos are being shown in some classrooms), and so on.

And now the President with the American Exceptionalism mantra. McCarthy must be so pleased. And Vlad, too.

[Jiggy-Z 3,435]

4 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Nope, they're all Babylon 5 gifs.

and "A Blafair to Rememblack".

[Hagbard Celine 10,921]

1pm ct Friday 30 October 2020 - map unchanged

 

Using realclearpolitics.com and adapting the 270 map to show anything that is +/- FIVE PERCENT 5% either way in gray/brown/notred/notblue.

 

538 weds 28th -> realclear 2pm ct yesterday 29th -> realclear 1pm ct today 30th -> movement last 24 hours

 

realclear at 5% or less = 10 states in play

 

az: +3.5 -> 0.0 tied -> 0.0 tied unchanged

fl: +1.5 -> +1.4 -> +1.2 -> -0.2

ga: +1.5 -> +0.4 -> +0.4 unchanged

ia: +1.6 -> +1.0 -> +1.2 -> +0.2

mn: +8.1 -> +4.7 -> +4.7 unchanged

nc: +2.1 -> +0.7 -> +1.2 -> +0.5

nv: +6.3 -> +4.6 -> +4.0 -> -0.6

oh: -1.7 -> 0.0 tied -> 0.0 tied unchanged

pa: +5.2 -> +4.3 -> +3.6 -> -0.7

tx: -1.8 -> -2.6 -> -2.3 -> +0.3

+++

 

notes:

 

mi: +8.1 -> +8.2 -> +6.5 today; called joe yesterday @ > +5.0

 

ne: -6.2 -> removed assuming NE CD2 cancels ME CD2

 

[Guest Lobo]

Well the last GOP candidate to win the White House without wining Texas was Nixon in 1968.  So Trump is in great company.  

[BradInATX 9,208]

Late trends were the harbinger of what was to come in 2016. A few of the data guys even saw those trends and smelled trouble.

Here's how they look now:

AZ - Very very slight Trump trend, Biden still with a decent lead though and I believe will be fine
MI - Slight Biden trend. HUGE lead. This state isn't even in question anymore. 
WI - STRONG Biden trend. Not in play, Biden will win easily.
PA - Not much of anything, maybe slight Trump. Biden should be very very heavily favored
TX - Slight Biden trend uptick, I don't think it will be enough but I think Texas might be within a point or so.
NC - Steady (has been one of the steadiest states the whole time, along with AZ). Biden's barring fuckery.
GA - STRONG Biden trend. I don't trust Georgia but by the numbers Biden has to be the favorite.
IA - STRONG Trump trend. Nobody believed you weren't going to run back to him, boring Iowa white people, we see you. Put some fuckin' flavor and some spices on your food already.
NV - Steady, Biden cruises
OH - Very recent Trump uptick. It's going to to go Trump fairly easily.
FL - Looks like a very very small Biden uptick, or steady. I _think_ it's going Biden but low confidence.

Edited October 30, 2020 by BradInATX

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,523]

1 hour ago, Texaspython said:

what's the scoop on the location and time?  Asking about Houston.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Late trends were the harbinger of what was to come in 2016. A few of the data guys even saw those trends and smelled trouble.

Here's how they look now:
WI - STRONG Biden trend. Not in play, Biden will win easily.

TX - Slight Biden trend uptick, I don't think it will be enough but I think Texas might be within a point or so.
 

Wisconsin will always be in play. The GOP there will figure out a way to mess with it even if it means burning ballots inside a building with people inside. They are mean sumbitches.

I am not a poll person per se, but I agree with the TX assessment. I mean I hope Biden gets it, it would be really neat but if one can trust the replies of respondents (for whom they voted, will vote for) in polls like the UMass poll then the R gap will be made up. With the weather being so nice, it seems they probably will turn out in force. I saw that there are going to be a lot of highway Trump parades on Sunday to keep their spirits high.

[Hagbard Celine 10,921]

inside scoop on collin county numbers

18014 voted in person yesterday (thursday 29th)

31511 absentee ballots received through yesterday (thursday 29th)

427262 total voters through yesterday (thursday 29th)

427262 is a 65.87% turnout of registered voters

2018 total votes cast 357034

2018 total turnout 61.38%

2016 total votes cast 366483

2016 total turnout 67.86%

collin dems believe 70% turnout flips collin blue

collin

fucking

county

[kevwun 15,882]

Dem Governor and AG in Wisconsin limits the amount of fuckery there.

Edited October 30, 2020 by kevwun

[SubliminalHorn 6,811]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

Most prescient line of the movie. As absurd as his assessments sounded at the time (“It’s not her toe”), Walter was right about most things. 

He’s not wrong, he’s just an asshole

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

In the replies there's a link to Reuters story on it too.

['stache 21,860]

I'm not putting much into the dem lean on early and absentee voting. Remember, dear leader says it's all bad and fraudulent. They'll show up in droves on Tuesday.

[SubliminalHorn 6,811]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

6%....5%....those numbers comfort you?

Jesus Christ we fucking get it. It’s going to be close

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Election night could last days or more . . . 

[Gatorubet 30,305]

That's the scenario I was babbling about yesterday, and would require Trump winning a bunch of states he's currently losing. 

One EC point from Nebraska or Maine will fix that.

[Brisketexan 105,320]

1 minute ago, washparkhorn said:

Election night could last days or more . . . 

Yep.

Imagine the most excruciating periods of your life, waiting on news that could be horrific, or could be great.  Someone posted the tweet above somewhere -- it's like we all got a cancer biopsy, and we're waiting on the results.....

I hate this timeline so, so much.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

2 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Election night could last days or more . . . 

that's a good chart and you should feel good

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,356]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not hanging my hat on it, because it's nuts, it's just what falls out of current vote count and the acceptance of survey results indicating 60% of voters will vote early and in person.  If that number goes to 70%, 75%, whatever, the projections get "more realistic".

or just maybe the survey/poll is way wrong. Registered voters for Texas is just under 17M.

I would expect around 2M voters in Texas on election day ~12%

[washparkhorn 9,939]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

that's a good chart and you should feel good

But . . . 

[G650 14,277]

3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

We didn’t win a game at Bates until my senior year.  4 fucking years.  We rioted after the game and forced the Lewiston PD to use tear gas on us.  1500 rich kids in Maine. It was glorious 

This reminds me of my sophomore year at College of Charleston when we beat UNC at basketball when they were #3 in the country. There were flipped cop cars on fire in King St. afterwards lol.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

The GOP court battles (to shape voting outcomes):

 

[4th&Five 41,588]

sounds real confident.