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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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47 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

Author is Texas Public Policy Foundation.  From personal experience, I can tell you not to trust a single word coming from that organization.

I think Trump wins Texas, but TPPF is masterful at serving up a stewpot of fantasies and lies.

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2 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Talked to one of my customers today that are trying to manage a project to board up all of their offices around the country in time for election day.  Their leadership seems to think some shit is going to happen on Tuesday.

Must be all those right wing extremists from this summer. 

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Author is Texas Public Policy Foundation.  From personal experience, I can tell you not to trust a single word coming from that organization.

I think Trump wins Texas, but TPPF is masterful at serving up a stewpot of fantasies and lies.

How dare you doubt TPPF?  They actually collect really great data that neither side has the resources nor the will to gather.  It's just what they do with it that's an issue.  I've been deeply involved with them for almost a decade, but Rex Kramer lumps in with the liberal cabal so who knows anything anymore?

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

He mentioned this change on the podcast they posted this afternoon. Someone asked "what does it take to get banned" and it's clear they were talking about Trafalgar. 

He also said that Susquehanna (sp?) was throwing out respondents who already voted because they didn't vote in the prior election (therefore leaving them out of the likely voter model). His quote was "that's fucking stupid."

That's the question I always had for Prof. Shaw at UT.  He runs the Texas Tribune/UT poll, and he is a proponent of a tight likely-voter screen that asks voters when they last voted, did they vote in the primary, do they know when Election Day is, do they know where their polling place is, etc.  

My point was always, if you're not going to take a respondent's word for whether s/he is likely to vote, why would you take the respondent's word for whom s/he is going to vote (or anything else, for that matter)?

But yeah--the Susquehanna model takes that to its absurdist end.  The respondent tells you that s/he already voted, and you're not going to believe him/her because . . . reasons?  That's sound methodology.

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1 minute ago, Lobo said:

How dare you doubt TPPF?  They actually collect really great data that neither side has the resources nor the will to gather.  It's just what they do with it that's an issue.  I've been deeply involved with them for almost a decade, but Rex Kramer lumps in with the liberal cabal so who knows anything anymore?

It's the fact that they demonstrably have no ethics, integrity, or honesty.  Again, personal experience.  

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far/ar-BB1ayfa6
 

Bloomberg) -- Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.

The firm’s analysis of early vote numbers also show a surge of non-college educated White voters, who largely back President Donald Trump, compared to voters of color, who overwhelmingly support Biden.

The situation is particularly stark in Florida where Republicans currently have a 9.4% turnout advantage in Miami-Dade County, a place where analysts say Biden will need a significant margin of victory to carry the state.

“I would like to see turnout increase – and yes, we need improvement,” Steve Schale, the president of Unite the Country, a pro-Biden super PAC, wrote in a blog post on Tuesday about Miami-Dade County early vote numbers.

Top campaign leaders have expressed confidence that Black and Latino voters will show up on Election Day - and historical trends suggest these groups often do prefer to vote in person. But some Biden advisers have expressed concerns about a lack of investment and are urging the campaign, so far unsuccessfully, to spend even more money to target these voters in the final stretch, especially given the campaign’s record-shattering fundraising.

Biden’s campaign disputed that these voter turnout efforts are being short-changed.

“No campaign in American history has devoted this level of resources that we have to outreach to voters of color, and we’re deeply proud of it,” Symone Sanders, one of the campaign’s most senior African-American advisers, said in a statement. “In community-specific advertising alone, we’ve dedicated tens of millions of dollars to each community, with a total into 9 figures. And we’ve committed tens of millions on in-person GOTV programs unique to communities of color. Earning the support of diverse voters is the beating heart of our operation. We’re also the most diverse general election campaign in American history, including at senior levels, and all of our strategic decisions are driven by our diverse leadership team.”

Disagreements over how to allocate precious resources in the closing days are a common occurrence in a presidential campaign, but what has made these disputes, which have not been previously reported, more serious is that the split has broken along racial lines.

Some of those advocating for more spending -- who are largely people of color and say they feel that their communities are misunderstood by top Biden officials -- sent multiple written proposals over the course of several months, including to National States Director Jenn Ridder and her staff, outlining ways the campaign could bolster minority turnout, the people familiar with the effort said. They say the documents were ignored by campaign leadership.

The disagreements have resulted in heated conversations, as staff argue over spending and strategy in the final stretch. And the advisers who say they are frustrated still say they’re confident Biden will win the election, but they fear leaving anything to chance if the race is close.

These advisers are pushing for more resources dedicated to getting out the vote, including paid door-knocking, paid phone banking and paid text messaging, according to the people familiar with the dispute.

As of Oct. 14, the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee had a combined $331 million cash on hand, according to their most recent reports with the Federal Election Commission.

Both Biden and Trump campaigned in Florida on Thursday, with Biden holding drive-in rallies in Broward County and in Tampa. Trump also held a rally in Tampa.

Yet a Biden campaign staff member in Florida said coalition directors, those responsible for turning out the vote among specific demographic groups, have never been given a budget, despite repeated requests for funds they can allocate. The staffer said colleagues have spent their own money to put on voter engagement events, but the lack of coordination with senior leaders has stymied their efforts to do what the staff member called culturally competent outreach in critical parts of the state.

The Biden campaign said budget recommendations for outreach programs are led by the coalition teams and the senior advisers who oversee constituency outreach in conjunction with the states team.

On Thursday, the Biden campaign held a call with reporters to discuss its efforts to turn out Latino voters, where they touted spending tens of millions of dollars to reach voters and reviewed get-out-the-vote events in battleground states targeted at Latino voters.

“We know our pathway to victory includes winning key battleground states that have significant populations” of Latino voters, deputy campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, said on the call. “We cannot win without the Latino vote in these states, which is why we have invested historic amounts of money and research.”

The call presented a united front from top leadership about its Latino get-out-of-the-vote efforts, but a person familiar with the planning said the call was designed to calm the nerves of prominent Latino Democrats, who have been raising concerns about the Biden campaign’s Latino outreach strategy. Behind the scenes, the person said, there is tension and infighting.

Democrats say Biden’s strength among other groups - namely seniors and suburbanites - will compensate for any drop-off in Latino support.

But some of the advisers say they fear the campaign is over-confident, especially after 2016 when voters of color did not turn out for Hillary Clinton in key cities like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, which contributed to narrow losses in those states.

Biden has enjoyed strong support from Black voters, who saved his primary campaign with a blowout win in South Carolina followed by big victories on Super Tuesday in states that had large Black populations, making it more critical that these voters turn out.

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15 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

What in the actual fuck????
 

I’ve never been an abolish ICE guy, but the administration has been using it as a praetorian guard and it’s going to have to be reorganized and much of the leadership purged, at the very least. 

21 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Holy fuck. Trump gaining in swing states? WTF? Are you fuckheads going to fuck around and fuck this up?
 

It’s after 5 and we’re pouring drinks.

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2 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Exactly - like that dude in the Boogaloo's who burned down the Minneapolis police station or his buddy who shot the cop in California.

 

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--like the ones who were planning on kidnapping and murdering Gov. Whitmer.

I didn’t say there were zero right wing extremists. But obviously it was groups with different political leanings that were behind most of this summer’s shenanigans.
 

I’ve already debunked this on the Minneapolis is Burning thread. 

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2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far/ar-BB1ayfa6
 

Bloomberg) -- Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.

The firm’s analysis of early vote numbers also show a surge of non-college educated White voters, who largely back President Donald Trump, compared to voters of color, who overwhelmingly support Biden.

The situation is particularly stark in Florida where Republicans currently have a 9.4% turnout advantage in Miami-Dade County, a place where analysts say Biden will need a significant margin of victory to carry the state.

“I would like to see turnout increase – and yes, we need improvement,” Steve Schale, the president of Unite the Country, a pro-Biden super PAC, wrote in a blog post on Tuesday about Miami-Dade County early vote numbers.

Top campaign leaders have expressed confidence that Black and Latino voters will show up on Election Day - and historical trends suggest these groups often do prefer to vote in person. But some Biden advisers have expressed concerns about a lack of investment and are urging the campaign, so far unsuccessfully, to spend even more money to target these voters in the final stretch, especially given the campaign’s record-shattering fundraising.

Biden’s campaign disputed that these voter turnout efforts are being short-changed.

“No campaign in American history has devoted this level of resources that we have to outreach to voters of color, and we’re deeply proud of it,” Symone Sanders, one of the campaign’s most senior African-American advisers, said in a statement. “In community-specific advertising alone, we’ve dedicated tens of millions of dollars to each community, with a total into 9 figures. And we’ve committed tens of millions on in-person GOTV programs unique to communities of color. Earning the support of diverse voters is the beating heart of our operation. We’re also the most diverse general election campaign in American history, including at senior levels, and all of our strategic decisions are driven by our diverse leadership team.”

Disagreements over how to allocate precious resources in the closing days are a common occurrence in a presidential campaign, but what has made these disputes, which have not been previously reported, more serious is that the split has broken along racial lines.

Some of those advocating for more spending -- who are largely people of color and say they feel that their communities are misunderstood by top Biden officials -- sent multiple written proposals over the course of several months, including to National States Director Jenn Ridder and her staff, outlining ways the campaign could bolster minority turnout, the people familiar with the effort said. They say the documents were ignored by campaign leadership.

The disagreements have resulted in heated conversations, as staff argue over spending and strategy in the final stretch. And the advisers who say they are frustrated still say they’re confident Biden will win the election, but they fear leaving anything to chance if the race is close.

These advisers are pushing for more resources dedicated to getting out the vote, including paid door-knocking, paid phone banking and paid text messaging, according to the people familiar with the dispute.

As of Oct. 14, the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee had a combined $331 million cash on hand, according to their most recent reports with the Federal Election Commission.

Both Biden and Trump campaigned in Florida on Thursday, with Biden holding drive-in rallies in Broward County and in Tampa. Trump also held a rally in Tampa.

Yet a Biden campaign staff member in Florida said coalition directors, those responsible for turning out the vote among specific demographic groups, have never been given a budget, despite repeated requests for funds they can allocate. The staffer said colleagues have spent their own money to put on voter engagement events, but the lack of coordination with senior leaders has stymied their efforts to do what the staff member called culturally competent outreach in critical parts of the state.

The Biden campaign said budget recommendations for outreach programs are led by the coalition teams and the senior advisers who oversee constituency outreach in conjunction with the states team.

On Thursday, the Biden campaign held a call with reporters to discuss its efforts to turn out Latino voters, where they touted spending tens of millions of dollars to reach voters and reviewed get-out-the-vote events in battleground states targeted at Latino voters.

“We know our pathway to victory includes winning key battleground states that have significant populations” of Latino voters, deputy campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, said on the call. “We cannot win without the Latino vote in these states, which is why we have invested historic amounts of money and research.”

The call presented a united front from top leadership about its Latino get-out-of-the-vote efforts, but a person familiar with the planning said the call was designed to calm the nerves of prominent Latino Democrats, who have been raising concerns about the Biden campaign’s Latino outreach strategy. Behind the scenes, the person said, there is tension and infighting.

Democrats say Biden’s strength among other groups - namely seniors and suburbanites - will compensate for any drop-off in Latino support.

But some of the advisers say they fear the campaign is over-confident, especially after 2016 when voters of color did not turn out for Hillary Clinton in key cities like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, which contributed to narrow losses in those states.

Biden has enjoyed strong support from Black voters, who saved his primary campaign with a blowout win in South Carolina followed by big victories on Super Tuesday in states that had large Black populations, making it more critical that these voters turn out.

 

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1 minute ago, Bama Chick said:

No electricity y’all!!!!
 

I mean, the fantasies are fucking off the charts and insane.

He's fucking insane.  You fuckhole pieces of shit who vote for him are voting for a fucking insane, lying, walking piece of shit.  What the FUCK is wrong with you?

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BTW Silver also said that it's possible Trump wins Texas by a significant margin - as likely as Biden winning it outright - due to the likely polling error here. That and the fact it's been so long since a Democrat won a statewide race. 

But still take the stuff on that NBC site with a grain of salt.

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's 4 PM CDT . . . should start to see a nice rise in doom here soon.

Counting on it...

1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

A little bit doomy...

35 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

What in the actual fuck????
 

This is the content that we're counting on to start our impending doom weekend.

eb8c4fa571a84b4a1d94520916780e9664e021e3

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There is still targeted disinfo and discouragement being sent to minority voters. That did not stop just because Brad Parscale is sitting at home wondering how he ended up on Tattoine. Hopefully, folks will get out on Tuesday and not be intimidated by the R voters that will also be out. If the RNC knew that more minority voters also vote that day then you can be sure they planned for that too. They play to win, so let's get voters out.

Edited by Mrs Whiggins
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23 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

I didn’t say there were zero right wing extremists. But obviously it was groups with different political leanings that were behind most of this summer’s shenanigans.
 

I’ve already debunked this on the Minneapolis is Burning thread. 

Shenanigans!

Protesters return to Michigan Capitol to decry coronavirus stay-home order

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35 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

The Economist is up to 97% for Joe - a new high.

image.thumb.png.d6a30d9d89c58055c2bbb54f32d9aaca.png

Feels like the forum is tipping toward the "everyone panic!" portion of the day but probably worth noting that none of the nerds' models have moved even slightly towards Trump. Economist up to 97%, 538 ticked up another point to 89% today.

Sort of like waiting until the CBs start flipping on the recruiting board, I'm going to try not to overreact until those models start to show Trump's chances growing. Of course I'm also about to start drinking so we'll see how that goes. 

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1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

This is just so fucking stupid.  And so fucking consistent with the general Trumpublican rejection of science.  There are polls that are based on mathematics, but Trumpublicans don't want to believe that.  They want to believe in magical invisible men--and they'll definitely be men--who will appear to save them.

It's all just soooooo fucking stupid.

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This is just so fucking stupid.  And so fucking consistent with the general Trumpublican rejection of science.  There are polls that are based on mathematics, but Trumpublicans don't want to believe that.  They want to believe in magical invisible men--and they'll definitely be men--who will appear to save them.

It's all just soooooo fucking stupid.

Top men.

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4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This is just so fucking stupid.  And so fucking consistent with the general Trumpublican rejection of science.  There are polls that are based on mathematics, but Trumpublicans don't want to believe that.  They want to believe in magical invisible men--and they'll definitely be men--who will appear to save them.

It's all just soooooo fucking stupid.

Colbert's "Truthiness"  segment was 15 years ago this month during the first Colbert Report episode. Truthiness has basically been cemented as the GOP's one enduring ideal since then.

Edited by UncleSonny
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6 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

These are essentially op-eds written to convince Trump voters that they can still make the difference if they get out there and vote.  They're not behind - they're a part of a silent majority that polls and the intellectuals who run them have always overlooked or ignored. 

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9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This is just so fucking stupid.  And so fucking consistent with the general Trumpublican rejection of science.  There are polls that are based on mathematics, but Trumpublicans don't want to believe that.  They want to believe in magical invisible men--and they'll definitely be men--who will appear to save them.

It's all just soooooo fucking stupid.

Quote

“We live in a country where people will lie to their accountant, they’ll lie to their doctor, they’ll lie to their priest,” says Cahaly. “And we’re supposed to believe they shed all of that when they get on the telephone with a stranger?”

Um, yeah?  There is no social pressure with an online pollster.  They might lie, but they won't do it because of shame, they'll do it to fuck with the numbers.  I don't think that's a big motivator for the average American.

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12 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

These are essentially op-eds written to convince Trump voters that they can still make the difference if they get out there and vote.  They're not behind - they're a part of a silent majority that polls and the intellectuals who run them have always overlooked or ignored. 

That’s how I’m betting all my monies. 

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5 hours ago, Lobo said:

I remember watching the World War II documentary with my father when I was maybe seven years old.  The video clip was of Nazis burning books en masse.  And the voiceover described a climate of hatred as it rattled off statistics about the rounding up and deportation of intellectuals, academics, poets, artists, and writers.  And I had already watched long clips of violent blitzkrieg, and even concentration camp footage.

 But I remember my father telling me during the particular scene I just described, “ that was the worst thing the Germans ever did.”  And I asked him how could arresting intellectuals and burning books be worse than all those bombs and all those sick looking people dying in those camps.  And he told me “They burned those books and arrested the others because they gave people ideas.  Once ideas, questions, and thinking went away...everything else they did was easy.  The uninitiated think the horrors of war are those bombs and those camps.  But the real evil lies in the power to make people capable of that in the first place.  To do that, they have to first stop thinking on their own.”

the condemnation of critical thinking, questioning authority, and classical education is the worst thing we are doing   The idolatry of Trump is a symptom of that disease.  We are already in our book burning phase.  We all ready marking intellectual enemies of the state.  What we do next will come far too easy for some of you.  When you’re out of ammo, the light of ideas will still flame on   

What are you gonna do with yourselves next week?   You can’t go back, we know who you are.  

Spot fucking on.  

I feel health care is the biggest crisis that has to be solved right now, but a close second is improving our education system to the point it kicks the shit out of any other country’s system.  Do that and most likely 90%+ of the other problems get fixed as a side benefit.  If health care wasn’t in such dire straits I would put education at the top right now - it’s my default #1 issue 99.9% of the time.

In my dream world our education system compares to all other education systems like our current military strength does.  Hmmmm, I wonder where we could get the funding to make this happen?

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