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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,297

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2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Trafalgar's polling shows a very tight race Pennsylvania, even as a right leaning outlier. What the hell is he talking about? If his poll is even off by 1% that is proof of something?

Their shit is so transparent. They release "polls" of the important races basically every single day now and usually, Trump is up 2, either 47-45 or 48-46. Occasionally, in some of the states where other pollsters show Biden much further ahead, they'll let Biden be the guy with 47 to Trump's 45, or they'll have a 47-47 tie. But no one ever gets above 49% or less than 45%. If we're to believe them, Trafalgar has not only the ability to poll half a dozen states in different regions of the country on a daily basis, but to also find uncannily uniform results in each. 

And the dude just makes up flagrant bullshit in his "analysis" when discussing the results, such as: 

"Trump is ahead by 2 in PA, but he'll need to win by 5 or more to overcome all the voter fraud." 

"In MN where Biden is up by 3, Kayne is taking up 3% that Trump needs."

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Gap03

Gap03 3,308

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4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Nate Silver revealed a couple of nights ago that Trafalagar has been getting paid by unnamed partisan entities. It’s too late to do anything but put a partisan astrix on the polls, but it’s something he will have to account for in the future.  
 

There is a long history of pollsters staking out an extreme position and hoping it hits.  Most are wrong, but every cycle there is one pollster that the broken clock on vote day is correct.  Zogby, Rasmussen, Gravis, and now Trafalgar.  On the progressive side: Sam Wang got made to look the fool in 2016 (although he’s and aggregator).

 

Either Trafalgar has seen something nobody else has seen, or more likely he got lucky on Election Day in 2016, and he’s now cashing in on the RW grift. The stupid facial hair and bow tie indicate the latter. 

It feels like the effort by Trafalgar, Susquehanna & InsiderAdvantage (both brought to you by the Center for American Greatness, for fuck's sake) and Rasmussen is to create enough right-leaning polls to swing the RCP average (which doesn't account for the quality of the polls in the same way that 538 does) so that Trump can scream that he won and have it not look quite so ridiculous.  It's ridiculous and transparent, but obviously sufficient for those that quote Breitbart / OANN / Gateway Pundit as legit news.

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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

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Just now, cactusflinthead said:

I'm grabbing whatever I can find. I'll make no claims as to its veracity 

Either "no reporters" just means no recording devices, or Ernest has someone on the inside feeding him info.  He seems like an established journalists, so I think the info is reasonably trustworthy.  

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29,947

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3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Agreed. I never want to hear “but at least W is a good person” shit. He had another chance to do the right thing and he failed like he always has. Fuck him. 

There's plenty of evidence he stole Ohio to win a second term. His brother being governor in Florida for the first go round was the first time banana republics started thinking of us as a banana republic.

Su hermano esta el caudillo de Florida? Por supuesto Jorge gano.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9,928

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2 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

It feels like the effort by Trafalgar, Susquehanna & InsiderAdvantage (both brought to you by the Center for American Greatness, for fuck's sake) and Rasmussen is to create enough right-leaning polls to swing the RCP average (which doesn't account for the quality of the polls in the same way that 538 does) so that Trump can scream that he won and have it not look quite so ridiculous.  It's ridiculous and transparent, but obviously sufficient for those that quote Breitbart / OANN / Gateway Pundit as legit news.

I think it’s more: this race isn’t getting away from us/we can still win/prevent the WSJ news room from giving  Trump a loser edit ala Bob Dole.  
 

once the RCP average turns on you, it can have a devastating cascade effect. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,209

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

The price of crude oil is currently some 43% off its one-year high, and is well below the point where further fracking exploration doesn't make economic sense.

You seem to be unaware of how most independent O&G companies operate.  They don't care if they actually make money or not so long as there's a sucker banker willing to loan them more money to keep the scam going another couple of quarters.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29,947

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3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It’s a tradition because either the ex president didn’t live long or no one wanted to hear from them. Not because of some ideal. And as far as Clinton fading into the background, he’s toxic to the dem party because of his past.

hot take: jimmy carter may be the best ex president we’ve ever had.  The dem party should be ashamed of how they’ve pushed him to the back all of these years.  FYI, he just turned 96.

 

 

My simplistic take on the parties for the last 40 years: The Republicans are evil and the Democrats are weak.

Timidity is a Dem trait I despise.

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mdmost

mdmost 43,011

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41 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

This race shouldn’t be this close. Trump is the worst candidate in history. I still can’t believe the Democrats couldn’t run a messaging campaign that showed all the prominent people that abandoned him, along with all of the twitter lies. That should have been powerful.

You are missing the reason why. It's not because Biden is a weak candidate. Trumpism is a cult. It has fully taken over the Republican Party. All those things the GOP once ascribed to the Democrats being under the "cult of Obama", they are now fully subscribed to themselves with Trump. It is a total Us vs. Them mentality. Show me the last time people were shutting down traffic on a highway for a GOP president? We're at a new level of fandom. It doesn't matter what the messaging is. It absolutely will not break through. Even with 218,000 dead Americans, a wrecked economy, massive job loss, industries being gutted, and our general way of life altered. None of that matters. It's all about owning the libs. We had to have all of that happen just for the fence sitters to get in the game. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669

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Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

You seem to be unaware of how most independent O&G companies operate.  They don't care if they actually make money or not so long as there's a sucker banker willing to loan them more money to keep the scam going another couple of quarters.

uh, yeah, i'd say we're pretty much all unaware of that.

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Willfully Horn

Willfully Horn 8,039

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1 hour ago, The Dog said:

This is a legit possibility, but I'd temper it with the fact that Trump is hitting 50% in polls even where it's close. Most likely he's going to win Texas but by a very small margin. 

If so, I hope there’s a recount. At least a sampling of counties to see how well the vote tally matches the paper ballot backups. I’d enjoy restored confidence in the voting system, which I lost with the Senate Intelligence committee’s report.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669

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13 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I think it’s more: this race isn’t getting away from us/we can still win/prevent the WSJ news room from giving  Trump a loser edit ala Bob Dole.  
 

once the RCP average turns on you, it can have a devastating cascade effect. 

consistently great material

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Herpa Derpa

Herpa Derpa 6,126

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Every time I see this chart or a chart like this I am continuously amazed at just how much of the west is federal lands. 

Not many people want to live on the top of a mountain or down in the desert.  The sprawl will eventually take care of those dense forests.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,136

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26 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

It feels like the effort by Trafalgar, Susquehanna & InsiderAdvantage (both brought to you by the Center for American Greatness, for fuck's sake) and Rasmussen is to create enough right-leaning polls to swing the RCP average (which doesn't account for the quality of the polls in the same way that 538 does) so that Trump can scream that he won and have it not look quite so ridiculous.  It's ridiculous and transparent, but obviously sufficient for those that quote Breitbart / OANN / Gateway Pundit as legit news.

This is where I’m at. I e always said Biden by 6-8 and he gets 51 or 52 in the senate and 330 or so EV. There’s upside to more Blue than that- but the polls showing Trump up just have a major whiff of crockpot-ism and shouldn’t be taken super seriously. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46,000

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Harris County worked with the SOS and election board to determine that tents were "structures".  It shouldn't matter whether a vehicle is a "structure" or not, they pull into a tent.

In a fair world, this would get tossed because the process was approved by state election officials.  Unfortunately, it's not a fair world, so let's wait & see.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,136

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11 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

Not many people want to live on the top of a mountain or down in the desert.  The sprawl will eventually take care of those dense forests.

Sure. I’ve been all over the west. I get the geography of the thing. It’s still amazing to look at a map and see it look like 70+% in some places as federal land. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46,000

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1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i said yesterday that timeliness while be decisive here. hanen just indicated as much ("why am i just now getting this?").  no opportunity to cure for the voters makes a late challenge fatal.

The Harris County official who worked with SOS & state/county election board people to get drive-through voting approval said this morning that they are prepared to use emergency response technology to inform any voter whose ballot was thrown out that they need to go vote again.  It would obviously not be ideal, and SCOTUS would surely get involved in the fight, regardless, but it seemed like they were preparing for the worst.

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