2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Superhero 8736]

19 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's interesting, if you look at the top 8 Texas cities by population, you'll see something like 8.5M people.  Expand that to MSA (which pretty much captures Texas suburbs), it's almost 22M people.  The entire state has 29M people.  This means 45% of Texans live in major metro suburbs, and 29% live in the major cities themselves.  That leaves 25% of the state in smaller cities  and towns as well as rural enclaves.

Let's say at most 50% of the population in the cities and burbs are eligible to vote (citizens and above 18), and they vote 60%/40% in favor of Ds; in the rural towns, say 75% of the population can vote, and 20%/80% in favor of Rs.

Using my completely completely unverified and unscientific scenario:

• Total number of voters in TX is (22M x 50%) + (7M x 75%) = 16.25M
• Ds receive (22M x 50% x 65%) + (7M x 75% x 20%) = 8.2M votes
• Rs receive (22M x 50% x 35%) + (7M x 75% x 80%) = 8.05M votes

I think that's a rosy scenario, but I think the rural voters are more motivated than the voters in the metro and 'burb, so I think the Rs pull through again.

[Brisketexan 104462]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

 

I think people are also overestimating how blue the suburbs have become.  Yes, the GOP's victory margin has been decreasing every couple of years.  I'm still seeing Trump signs all over the place in my Dallas suburban neck of the woods and few Biden signs.  I'm hoping it's a sign that Trump's base is just much more enthusiastic and the Democrats are becoming more of a silent majority rather than the polls being wrong and Texas not becoming as blue as quickly as predicted.  

I also see a bunch of Trump nonsense on Nextdoor from both suburban men and women.

Yeah, don't count the burbs as a win, at all.  I think Trump has a lot more support than the polls show.  And I think there will be massive interference and suppression.  Continuing to think about this as a normal election is a recipe for disaster.  This is a national effort to overcome a cult.  And it is going to be incredibly difficult.

[gmr548 16463]

New Hampshire goes red this election. Right or wrong? Been looking at electoral trends lately on the topic of Texas being purple but New Hampshire is a state that has steadily been turning red every election. Hillary won by less than 3k votes. Gary Johnson took 30k votes away from both candidates but I don't see the current Libertarian candidate doing as well as he did.

Probably wrong. There really isn't anything to support that except media hype based on lazy analysis of 16. NH has trended very close to the national popular vote since 2000 and has hit it essentialy right in the money there for the past three. Saying NH goes R means, in all likelihood, the national popular vote does so, or is at least very close to doing so. Does that sound at all plausible?

Like MN, NH is hyped as a potential Trump flip, but it doesn't hold up. He got 46 percent there. That's not a winning number and it's safe to say he isn't picking up a ton of new voters. Clinton got only 48 - probably safe to assume Biden can replicate that given he's at 51 percent and +9 in the RCP average.

[Zonahorn 8079]

39 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

I think people are also overestimating how blue the suburbs have become.  Yes, the GOP's victory margin has been decreasing every couple of years.  I'm still seeing Trump signs all over the place in my Dallas suburban neck of the woods and few Biden signs.  I'm hoping it's a sign that Trump's base is just much more enthusiastic and the Democrats are becoming more of a silent majority rather than the polls being wrong and Texas not becoming as blue as quickly as predicted.  

I also see a bunch of Trump cheerleading nonsense on Nextdoor from both suburban men and women.

Seriously? Every shred of hard data has the suburbs moving very much in Democrats favor. Neighborhood signs and nextdoor don't mean shit

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

13 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Seriously? Every shred of hard data has the suburbs moving very much in Democrats favor. Neighborhood signs and nextdoor don't mean shit

i also think this is different from other elections, where people aren't really voting for biden, but voting against trump.  that probably means you don't see as many biden signs as well.

[Pig Bellmont 8679]

17 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Seriously? Every shred of hard data has the suburbs moving very much in Democrats favor. Neighborhood signs and nextdoor don't mean shit

Everyone knows the true indicator of popularity is a boat parade

[Zonahorn 8079]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Everyone knows the true indicator of popularity is a boat parade

Have we polled the boat parades yet?

[HenryJames 65868]

nm

Edited August 11, 2020 by HenryJames

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, don't count the burbs as a win, at all.  I think Trump has a lot more support than the polls show.  And I think there will be massive interference and suppression.  Continuing to think about this as a normal election is a recipe for disaster.  This is a national effort to overcome a cult.  And it is going to be incredibly difficult.

Biden v trump is a toss up in TEXAS. 
 

Beto got more votes than cuck cruz in WILLIAMSON COUNTY. 
 

Trump ain’t winning the suburbs. 

[BradInATX 9208]

19 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i also think this is different from other elections, where people aren't really voting for biden, but voting against trump.  that probably means you don't see as many biden signs as well.

Also, most people that have political yard signs are annoying cunts, and Trump pretty much has the annoying cunt market cornered.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Also voter suppression by republicans is an inner city and east Texas black thing, not a suburb thing. Or even a valley thing. That’s why the Texas Republican Party is currently shitting it’s pants like they were trump himself. Unlike Georgia, Texas republicans haven’t had to suppress the black vote in the cities or east Texas to win statewide elections in the past. 

Edited August 11, 2020 by JimmyJames

[henrygandorf 29174]

maybe i'm oversimplifying, but basing suburb lean on trump signs in dallas is like me saying biden will win in a landslide because everyone in my west hollywood neighborhood thinks so.

i can't remember the last time i saw a trump sign, but i saw a bernie sign this morning.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

maybe i'm oversimplifying, but basing suburb lean on trump signs in dallas is like me saying biden will win in a landslide because everyone in my west hollywood neighborhood thinks so.

i can't remember the last time i saw a trump sign, but i saw a bernie sign this morning.

‘Cept Biden needs the Dallas burbs. 

[Dbeasy 14953]

I honestly believe that if Trump wins, the rest of the world will immediately move to establish a different reserve currency. That will leave a mark on America. Voting matters.

[henrygandorf 29174]

26 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

‘Cept Biden needs the Dallas burbs. 

eh, biden can win without texas.  trump can't.  same with florida and north caro.

if texas is truly a swing state this thing is way over.

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

Joe baiting Trump a bit...

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Several very good election prediction sites already have noticed Biden has a decent sized lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. 
 

the map still favors Biden at this point. Biden could lose Georgia, Texas, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin and still win by getting all of the old Clinton states ( which he should get) plus Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. 
 

that’s the thing scaring the trump campaign right now is Biden’s paths to victory. Biden is still expected to put up a reasonably tough fight in places like Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia. While Florida and  North Carolina could go either way.  Biden also probably has a small lead in Wisconsin / Arizona still as well.

[gmr548 16463]

Nextdoor

You couldn't cherry pick idiot boomers harder if you tried

[washparkhorn 9931]

Just now, gmr548 said:

You couldn't cherry pick idiot boomers harder if you tried

 

Nextdoor = Peak Boomers

[4th&Five 41457]

 

[gmr548 16463]

 

Wisconsin for Trump it is

[WBT 20397]

14 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

I don't think the splits will end up being that drastic but this is why the posts about knowing the outcome by 7 or 8 oclock on the last page won't be applicable this year.  Any states that are relatively close won't be called on election night.

That's not to say that it isn't already basically over now but the traditional media calls won't happen on election night.

Edited August 11, 2020 by WBT

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/
 

link to a good Wisconsin poll for Biden and dems.

[sheeeit 129]

4 hours ago, thepop said:

I guess I didn’t pay attention to battleground state polls in 2016. I didn’t know they were all that close.

I was fooled by the national polls.

Not really.  That tweet is pretty misleading.  The are comparing Biden% on 8/10 ish with Clinton% on 11/16.

While I still think Biden will win, I do not think it is a slam dunk as so many here do.  Consider the following that shows poll averages for Trump and Clinton on this date (8/11 ish) in 2016:

Ohio C +2, Final T +8

Florida C+2, Final T +1.2

Penn C +9, Final T +.7

Wisc C +9.4, Final T +.7

Texas C +2, Final T +9

NC C +2. Final T +4

Michigan C +8, Final T +.3

Surely, Biden will not make the same mistakes Hillary did but you just never know in these things.  Lots of time left.  Polls are really fairly meaningless at this point.  Amazing how much they moved though in 2016 in some of these states.  Also still amazing how close it was in the end in Mich, Penn and Wisc.  Interestingly, in the RCP average poll, Trump never closed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin literally until election day.  Clinton was up 6% the last week of polls in both states.  Crazy.

It seems doubtful Trump hits all these again.

Edited August 11, 2020 by sheeeit

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Not really.  That tweet is pretty misleading.  The are comparing Biden% on 8/10 ish with Clinton% on 11/16.

While I still think Biden will win, I do not think it is a slam dunk as so many here do.  Consider the following that shows poll averages for Trump and Clinton on this date (8/11 ish) in 2016:

Ohio C +2, Final T +8

Florida C+2, Final T +1.2

Penn C +9, Final T +.7

Wisc C +9.4, Final T +.7

Texas C +2, Final T +9

NC C +2. Final T +4

Michigan C +8, Final T +.3

Surely, Biden will not make the same mistakes Hillary did but you just never know in these things.  Lots of time left.  Polls are really fairly meaningless at this point.  Amazing how much they moved though in 2016 in some of these states.  Also still amazing how close it was in the end in Mich, Penn and Wisc.  Interestingly, in the RCP average poll, Trump never closed the gap in Michigan literally until election day.  Clinton was up 6% the last week.

It seems doubtful Trump hits all these again.

Comey breaking protocol by re-opening his investigation against Clinton with about 7 days left and Clinton’s questionable strategy in both which states she visited and which states she invested money in totally did her in.

clinton choked and had just about the worst October from a candidate I’ve ever seen.  It’s highly unlikely that lightning strikes twice as there were also other factors like pissed off bernie bro’s and 8 years of Democrat fatigue which won’t come up this time. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

[mdmost 42775]

17 hours ago, tantric superman said:

Walking around my Lake Highlands neighborhood - the one that probably kept Pete Sessions in the race in 2018.   Trump/Pence signs outnumber the Biden ones by about 3-1.

I hate people.

Lake Highlands became Plano and Highland Park-lite when the apartments along Skillman got torn down. It shouldn't shock you that it's red as hell. I'm shocked when I see any Biden signs over there on my way to mdleast's house.

On polls, I still am leery of any poll showing Biden with a lead. I truly believe there are still people who will say Biden to a person over the phone and pull the lever for Trump when no one sees them.

Edited August 11, 2020 by mdmost

[tantric superman 4667]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

 It’s highly unlikely that lightning strikes twice as there were also other factors like pissed off bernie bro’s and 8 years of Democrat fatigue which won’t come up this time. 

All Trump needs is  few instigators to start a "left wing, radical riot" before the voting. 

Lightening isn't required.  Just a ham fisted plan.

 

[bolverk 29359]

Late to the discussion, but back to Texas for a moment. I just did the math on a question I'd been wondering about for how soon Texas would be a tipping point state. With that said, take a wild guess as to the share of the total state's population that lives in counties that Beto won:

Spoiler

The answer is 60.3 percent based off of 2019 Census estimates.

Now, sure the border counties have a much younger population that is still ineligible to vote, but even then turnout among registered voters is still a problem. I'm not sure that problem will be resolved anytime soon unfortunately, but any GOTV effort is helpful and needed.

Now, focus on the light pink suburban counties around the big four MSAs. That's where the votes are and trending less Republican, and I think Collin County is ready to flip. The moment that happens, Texas is legitimately a swing state with Denton County putting Dems over the edge.

Beto lost by 215,000 votes or by 2.6 percentage points. It was that close and those votes are already out there for the taking.

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Late to the discussion, but back to Texas for a moment. I just did the math on a question I'd been wondering about for how soon Texas would be a tipping point state. With that said, take a wild guess as to the share of the total state's population that lives in counties that Beto won:

  Hide contents

The answer is 60.3 percent based off of 2019 Census estimates.

Now, sure the border counties have a much younger population that is still ineligible to vote, but even then turnout among registered voters is still a problem. I'm not sure that problem will be resolved anytime soon unfortunately, but any GOTV effort is helpful and needed.

Now, focus on the light pink suburban counties around the big four MSAs. That's where the votes are and trending less Republican, and I think Collin County is ready to flip. The moment that happens, Texas is legitimately a swing state with Denton County putting Dems over the edge.

Beto lost by 215,000 votes or by 2.6 percentage points. It was that close and those votes are already out there for the taking.

He actually won Tarrant ( my county) by a very slim margin. Hopefully democrats continue to win that county by bigger margins. I still see a lot of morons with huge pickup trucks that have trump stickers on them and Trump flags in the bed of the truck tho.

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

32 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

Not really.  That tweet is pretty misleading.  The are comparing Biden% on 8/10 ish with Clinton% on 11/16.

While I still think Biden will win, I do not think it is a slam dunk as so many here do.  Consider the following that shows poll averages for Trump and Clinton on this date (8/11 ish) in 2016:

Ohio C +2, Final T +8

Florida C+2, Final T +1.2

Penn C +9, Final T +.7

Wisc C +9.4, Final T +.7

Texas C +2, Final T +9

NC C +2. Final T +4

Michigan C +8, Final T +.3

Surely, Biden will not make the same mistakes Hillary did but you just never know in these things.  Lots of time left.  Polls are really fairly meaningless at this point.  Amazing how much they moved though in 2016 in some of these states.  Also still amazing how close it was in the end in Mich, Penn and Wisc.  Interestingly, in the RCP average poll, Trump never closed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin literally until election day.  Clinton was up 6% the last week of polls in both states.  Crazy.

It seems doubtful Trump hits all these again.

The Democratic National Convention was at the end of July - any polls coming out around this time in 2016 were experiencing a full convention bounce and before any FBI public announcements bullshit.

Hillary never had anywhere near the same type of lead (sustained) for as long as Biden has. 

[bolverk 29359]

9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

He actually won Tarrant ( my county) by a very slim margin. Hopefully democrats continue to win that county by bigger margins. I still see a lot of morons with huge pickup trucks that have trump stickers on them and Trump flags in the bed of the truck tho.

Understood. Prior to 2018, Tarrant was the last urban holdout for the GOP. Hopefully, it continues on this trend.

Edit: I should also note that Williamson flipped in 2018 as well. Hays, I think, flipped a couple years earlier. I think Collin is well on its way to making the move like Wilco.

Edited August 11, 2020 by bolverk

[DaysOff 7821]

I can't believe how confident people on this thread are given what happened four years ago. It ain't over until he's drug by his 48 inch drawers out of the WH on January 20th.

[royiv 9131]

Seeing trucks with Trump flags and Trump yard signs motivate me even more, not that I needed it, to do whatever I can to get as many Ds elected this year. Hopefully it has the same effect on other sane human beings.

[LurkingHorn 1044]

15 minutes ago, royiv said:

Seeing trucks with Trump flags and Trump yard signs motivate me even more, not that I needed it, to do whatever I can to get as many Ds elected this year. Hopefully it has the same effect on other sane human beings.

Please go work an election poll then if you aren't already signed up. Seriously. 

[Mo Horn 8795]

Now that he's picked Harris, Biden needs to announce during his acceptance speech that he is committing to be a one term President. Anyone who doesn't want to vote for Dotard, but it's concerned with Biden's age and his mental acuity, will be able to "tolerate" 4 years years as a transition.

[formermav43 4599]

4 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Now that he's picked Harris, Biden needs to announce during his acceptance speech that he is committing to be a one term President. Anyone who doesn't want to vote for Dotard, but it's concerned with Biden's age and his mental acuity, will be able to "tolerate" 4 years years as a transition.

You think he should make himself a lame duck even before he takes office? That doesn't seem like a great move.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Now that he's picked Harris, Biden needs to announce during his acceptance speech that he is committing to be a one term President. Anyone who doesn't want to vote for Dotard, but it's concerned with Biden's age and his mental acuity, will be able to "tolerate" 4 years years as a transition.

Whew, no.

What a terrible idea.

[Biff Tannen 45477]

1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

You think he should make himself a lame duck even before he takes office? That doesn't seem like a great move.

Yeah, can't do that.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

38 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Now that he's picked Harris, Biden needs to announce during his acceptance speech that he is committing to be a one term President. Anyone who doesn't want to vote for Dotard, but it's concerned with Biden's age and his mental acuity, will be able to "tolerate" 4 years years as a transition.

Yeah, no.  You don't announce that on the front end.  Much of the leverage a president has is in the presumption that he will be there for eight years.  You can't get rid of that before you're even elected president.

[honolulu horn 6156]

39 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Now that he's picked Harris, Biden needs to announce during his acceptance speech that he is committing to be a one term President. Anyone who doesn't want to vote for Dotard, but it's concerned with Biden's age and his mental acuity, will be able to "tolerate" 4 years years as a transition.

 

[Mo Horn 8795]

So if the dems can flip the Senate and keep the house does that change anyone's opinion about announcing he's a one term President? He won't need as much leverage. And, if Kamala is the heir apparent let her use her leverage if needed. 

[StassneyHorn 6534]

Way too many of you think it’s a foregone conclusion he dies in 4 years or gives way to Kamala. He’s been in public office since the 70s, this is what he’s been dreaming of for 50 years. He ain’t stepping down for shit.

Edited August 11, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[formermav43 4599]

8 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

So if the dems can flip the Senate and keep the house does that change anyone's opinion about announcing he's a one term President? He won't need as much leverage. And, if Kamala is the heir apparent let her use her leverage if needed. 

What would be the point of that announcement? Your original suggestion was to gain voters who might be concerned with Biden's age. But this wouldn't come until after the election, obviously. As far-fetched as your suggested advantage was before, there wouldn't even be a hypothetical upside to this.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

11 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

So if the dems can flip the Senate and keep the house does that change anyone's opinion about announcing he's a one term President? He won't need as much leverage. And, if Kamala is the heir apparent let her use her leverage if needed. 

That's particularly when he needs the leverage to keep his own party in line.

If he announces that he's a one-termer, he'll have half the Senate Democrats pursuing their own agendas in order to get a leg up in the primaries.

[Bama Chick 28596]

And that terrible plan is basically admitting Trump is right.

“JOE HAS LOST HIS MARBLES!”

“No I haven’t and to prove it I’m announcing I’m only running for one term!”

Like, what?

[Brandywine 1311]

If he announces he’s a one term President then he’s a lame duck going in. His whole time in office will be about who the next President will be. 

[jimmyjazz 45512]

2 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

If he announces he’s a one term President then he’s a lame duck going in. His whole time in office will be about who the next President will be. 

A ha!  What if he announces he's only going to serve one term but pulls a fast one and runs again in 4 years?  Chess VS checkers, my friend.  Chess VS checkers.

[Brandywine 1311]

Ummmmm, so you think more people will vote for him if they know he’ll only be in one term? Or THINK he’ll only be in one term?

Edited August 11, 2020 by Brandywine

[BrickHorn 18176]

1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

Now that he's picked Harris, Biden needs to announce during his acceptance speech that he is committing to be a one term President. Anyone who doesn't want to vote for Dotard, but it's concerned with Biden's age and his mental acuity, will be able to "tolerate" 4 years years as a transition.

Anyone who doesn’t want to vote for Trump is unlikely to favor the idea of a Harris presidency in 2024. I really don’t see how that stunt would have any positive impact for Biden.