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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

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8 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

I'd like to know what it is about Trump that conveys strength. His obstinance? Being a thin skinned whiner doesn't usually get one viewed as "strong."

Because he says the stuff that used to be whispered very loudly 

Thank you. It’s true, and these are the best and the finest. When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
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Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3,903

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32 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I don't think I stated my point clearly.  I don't think that the VP slot changes anyone's mind.  The evangelicals who voted for McCain because of Palin were never, ever going to vote for Obama.  The choice of Palin may have reassured them, such that they turned out to vote, as opposed to sitting it out in disgust.  But the choice of Palin failed to reassure another part of McCain's natural base, and was a bad pick from that perspective.  

Likewise, I doubt anyone voted for Obama specifically because of the Biden pick.  But it was reassuring to people on the fence, unsure of a youngish, black man with the middle name Hussein, in a way that Hillary Clinton would not have been.  So the people who were naturally in the dem camp, didn't start looking elsewhere.

Biden has to reassure dems who are concerned that he's too old, won't survive his term, won't run for reelection, and women who are concerned about the direction of this country.   

Palin actually excited the hard right conservatives who were pretty luke warm with the more centrist McCain and at least peeked the interest of undecided or main street independents, particularly white women.  Unfortunately for McCain and her, once here large deficiencies were exposed, it ended up being a train wreck for the GOP and she ended up being a major drag on his candidacy.  But most VP choices have very little impact, whether it be Ryan or Kaine or even Pence, those decisions didn't matter much.  Joe's may mean a tad more because of his age, but it's doubtful to move the needle very much unless he does something crazy.  A Harris or Demings or even an unknown Governor, as long as there is no major skeletons,  probably won't have a major effect.  VP choice is more about not fucking it up or reassurance, as you said. 

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,492

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3 hours ago, lemonlime said:

I don't think I stated my point clearly.  I don't think that the VP slot changes anyone's mind.  The evangelicals who voted for McCain because of Palin were never, ever going to vote for Obama.  The choice of Palin may have reassured them, such that they turned out to vote, as opposed to sitting it out in disgust.  But the choice of Palin failed to reassure another part of McCain's natural base, and was a bad pick from that perspective.  

Likewise, I doubt anyone voted for Obama specifically because of the Biden pick.  But it was reassuring to people on the fence, unsure of a youngish, black man with the middle name Hussein, in a way that Hillary Clinton would not have been.  So the people who were naturally in the dem camp, didn't start looking elsewhere.

Biden has to reassure dems who are concerned that he's too old, won't survive his term, won't run for reelection, and women who are concerned about the direction of this country.   

Yeah, but those are votes.  An evangelical who wasn't going to vote for McCain (instead would've voted for a third party or wouldn't have voted in the race) who decides to vote for McCain because of Palin is a vote.  That's someone who was definitely motivated to vote by the VP pick, and that's what we're talking about, isn't it?

I'll grant you that there weren't many (any) Obama supporters who saw the Palin pick and were like, "oh, ok--well now I guess I need to vote for McCain."  But there were some people who were going to vote for the Libertarian candidate who said, "Ok--now I can vote for McCain."

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6,540

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Offering up this link here from Rachel Bitecofer, rather than double posting in the Senate and House 2020 threads. It’s long, you have the time though. Rachel Bitecofer has had some pretty good work regarding the Virginia 2017 and 2019 elections, had a pretty big story in Politico a couple months back about there being no swing voters as well that grabbed headlines. Gets into the Senate races and brings up what she calls the Texas 8 US House reps that are in for a challenge, tries to portray the blue wave as an education wave also. 

 

https://www.niskanencenter.org/negative-partisanship-and-the-2020-congressional-elections/

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Macanudo

Macanudo 12,928

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Biden's VP pick isn't important for 2024.  Its important for 2021 or 2022.  I dont expect Biden to finish a 1st term.  We might see the first permanent invocation of the 25th amendment, Section 3 or  Cabinent invocation of Section 4. 

Now, how that affects the VP who takes over and them tries to run in 2024...  That would be interesting.

Imagine how Republicans heads would spin if Biden turned over the reins to Harris or Baldwin. 

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6,540

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When you look at the polling to go with it, 51% voted for Trump last time, 42% HRC and 7% other. Which matches up with the 2016 results in Texas by 1% point, so it wouldn’t appear to be a bad sample from my non scientific eyes. Open to people tearing that apart though

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,492

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53 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

When you look at the polling to go with it, 51% voted for Trump last time, 42% HRC and 7% other. Which matches up with the 2016 results in Texas by 1% point, so it wouldn’t appear to be a bad sample from my non scientific eyes. Open to people tearing that apart though

There's nothing in those cross-tabs that immediately jumps out at me.  

This does go back to my observation about the Texas Tribune Poll that it may have sampled very close to the zenith of Trump's approval on COVID, and that subsequent polls would show a decrease in his support.  I think this poll maybe supports that hypothesis.

That being said, PPP is a Democratic pollster, and so I think their house effect is somewhere around D+3.  So I think the reality is that it is still Trump +1 or +2.  

But if he's within a point or two in Texas, he's right fucked nationally.  And it raises the real possibility of Biden getting 400 electoral votes.

By the way--I am fascinated by the 2% who voted for Clinton in 2016 and say they're voting for Trump in 2020.  I would really like to talk to one of these people.

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gmr548

gmr548 16,517

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When you look at the polling to go with it, 51% voted for Trump last time, 42% HRC and 7% other. Which matches up with the 2016 results in Texas by 1% point, so it wouldn’t appear to be a bad sample from my non scientific eyes. Open to people tearing that apart though

PPP is the Democratic Rasmussen.
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gmr548

gmr548 16,517

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When you look at the polling to go with it, 51% voted for Trump last time, 42% HRC and 7% other. Which matches up with the 2016 results in Texas by 1% point, so it wouldn’t appear to be a bad sample from my non scientific eyes. Open to people tearing that apart though

PPP is the Democratic Rasmussen.
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

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12 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


PPP is the Democratic Rasmussen.

They're definitely partisan, but I think they do legit polling. Rasmussen has a C+ and a 1.5 R bias. Harris has the same C+ and a 1.3 R. PPP is .3 D

9 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

It’s rated a B on fivethirtyeight with 80% of races called correctly

Here are the rest of them. It's a good reference. Who else does grading of pollsters?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32,342

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When you threaten to sue your re-election campaign manager,  things might be fucked:

 

https://www.axios.com/trump-2020-polling-brad-parscale-89c441a5-0cbf-43fe-a82e-5316e705c867.html

 

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President Trump erupted on a phone call last week with campaign manager Brad Parscale after being presented with polls that showed former Vice President Joe Biden beating him in several key states, CNN first reported and Axios has confirmed.

Driving the news: Swing-state polls from this week show Biden pulling ahead in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, indicating that the presumptive Democratic nominee has benefited from remaining out of the public eye.

 

 

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Gallup has found that Trump's approval rating has taken its sharpest dip to date since he took office.

And Pew Research reports that about 65% of Americans believe the president was too slow to take major steps to handle the threat of the coronavirus.

 

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Trump demanded on the call to know how his campaign, which is sitting on a massive fundraising war chest and sprawling digital operation, is polling behind a candidate that he views as weak.

Trump insisted to Parscale that the polling data was wrong and blamed him for the state of the race. According to the New York Times, the president at one point threatened to sue Parscale, though the threat did not appear to be serious.

Between the lines: Axios' Jonathan Swan reported last week that a number of Trump's most trusted advisers — both inside and outside the White House — have urged him to stop doing marathon televised briefings, believing his ratings have suffered from overexposure.

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/politics/donald-trump-brad-parscale-campaign-coronavirus/index.html

 

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Last Wednesday, two days before Trump lashed out at Parscale, his campaign manager and several other top political advisers briefed him on internal campaign and Republican National Committee data showing the President was heading for defeat in key battleground states. Parscale, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and other advisers urged him to scale back his daily, combative news conferences and pointed to data showing that the briefings were hurting him with critical swing voters in those states.

Trump has complained to aides that his restricted travel has hurt his numbers, not the briefings.

One person familiar with the call said the message didn't appear to sink in with the President, who instead changed the subject away from the issue of briefings.

 

 

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32,342

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-election-exclusive-idUSKBN22C03K

 

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President Donald Trump told Reuters on Wednesday he does not believe opinion polls that show his likely Democratic presidential opponent, Joe Biden, leading in the 2020 race for the White House.

During an interview in the Oval Office, the Republican president said he did not expect the election to be a referendum on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and added he was surprised the former vice president was doing well.

 

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“I don’t believe the polls,” Trump said. “I believe the people of this country are smart. And I don’t think that they will put a man in who’s incompetent.” 

Trump has criticized Biden’s decades-long record as a U.S. senator and as President Barack Obama’s vice president. 

“And I don’t mean incompetent because of a condition that he’s got now. I mean he’s incompetent for 30 years. Everything he ever did was bad. His foreign policy was a disaster,” Trump said.

 

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Trump told Reuters he did not view the election as a test of how he did with the pandemic. 

“No, I don’t think so. I think it’s a referendum on a lot of things,” Trump said. “I think it’s going to be a referendum on all the things we’ve done and certainly this will be a part of it, but we’ve done a great job.”

 

 

 

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17,566

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4 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I love the fact trump doesn’t believe the polls. Keep believing that and telling your cult that all is well and they will win in a landslide. Please. 

Yes.  He doesn't believe them.  That's why he threatened to sue his campaign manager.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27,594

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Let's just get it on out there. Hillary was not likeable. Uncle Joe is much more tolerable to voters. He's doing fine hiding out in his basement while Trump shits all over himself. 

Trump lashed out at Parscale because he could. It meant nothing. He's not going to sue him or fire him. He didn't want to hear from him or Ronna that he was hurting himself with his marathon pressers. He doesn't believe the numbers, but when did he? But, he did quit doing them. He grasped that much. 

The Senators know that he's an anchor. They are doing their best to keep fear instilled in the base. They know that if they are up against a turnout like 2018 it's going to be grim for their prospects. That's why they sent out a 57 page report on how to distance from the man. Blame China! And when they call you racist for it, here's how to respond. That's not a gameplan of a party with confidence. 

It's a long road ahead. Buckle up. 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861

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3 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

The whole article is good.  Howeva, I went there just so I can see more about that chart to see which states each of those dots represent and they don't tell you.  Seems like that is a bit of important information.  Is that -10 one AR?  Well, I don't really care.  Is it OH? That's a bigger deal.

 

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Editor’s note: The Economist is making some of its most important coverage of the covid-19 pandemic freely available to readers of The Economist Today, our daily newsletter. To receive it, register here. For our coronavirus tracker and more coverage, see our hub

You would think that everything about this year’s presidential election has changed over the past month. With coronavirus sweeping the country, President Donald Trump suggesting that Americans might want to disinfect their veins and Joe Biden going underground, such an assumption would appear reasonable.

 

State-level political polls, which are known to oscillate wildly from day to day, show the former vice-president gaining a lot of ground in recent weeks. Yet there is actually little evidence that the picture has changed at all since February. Mr Trump’s approval ratings are exactly where they were when the outbreak of covid-19 began. Properly weighted public opinion polls that account for interviewees’ political affiliations reveal that Mr Biden holds just the same lead over the president as he did back in March.

Mr Biden looks a bit stronger than that slight edge would imply. The former vice-president is polling better than Hillary Clinton did where it matters most: among white voters in the Midwest, who have outsize importance in the electoral college. Though he is losing ground with non-whites and younger voters, their distribution across the country gives them less influence in presidential elections than they ought to have. The sudden economic slump has also affected Mr Trump’s re-election odds, though less than you might think. As a result, Mr Biden starts the campaign ahead of Mr Trump.

20200502_USM900.png

To gauge the candidates’ strengths with a variety of demographic groups, The Economist used a statistical technique called “multilevel regression and poststratification” (mrp) that takes raw survey data collected by YouGov, a pollster, and produces finely-detailed predictions for many different types of voters. We know how white women with a college degree lean Democratic, for example, and how white Christian men from Michigan tend to vote for Republicans. And since we also know how many people of each type live in each state, we can estimate how the race would play out if the election were held today.

This method is not unlike the one used by Simulmatics Corporation, which in 1960 fed a primitive computer decades’ worth of polls from George Gallup and Elmer Roper to advise Kennedy on a winning strategy. The scientists behind Simulmatics made predictions for 480 types of voters. Based on data about nearly 9,000 voters collected by YouGov in March and April, we have made predictions for over 380,000 types, one for each combination of nine different demographic and geographical factors.

Our mrp model tells us both whether people are likely to vote, and who they will support if they do. Our method adjusts for many of the factors that increase the variance of live-caller polls, chiefly by ensuring a balanced sample of Democrats, Republicans and independents in each state. Perhaps most important, mrp allows us to fill in the blanks where public polling is scarce, which was a big problem when handicapping the 2016 election.

20200502_USC392.png

Currently our model estimates that 41% of whites who cast ballots would vote for Mr Biden if the election were held today, whereas 51% say they will cast their lot for Mr Trump—a ten-percentage-point margin. In 2016 Mrs Clinton lost this group by 15 points. Mr Biden has improved his standing both among whites who have college degrees and the ever-watched group of those who do not. He polls four and six percentage points better than Mrs Clinton did among each group, respectively. Mr Biden is currently polling 11 points better than Mrs Clinton in states where working-class white voters make up the largest share of the electorate, and he is performing roughly six points worse in those states where they are the lowest share (see chart).

That improvement has a disproportionate effect on Mr Biden’s chances of victory. Whereas Mrs Clinton lost the election by small margins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, we find Mr Biden with a slight lead in all three. He is also likely to beat Mrs Clinton’s margin in Arizona, which is likelier than any of the midwestern battlegrounds to tip the election.

That is despite Mr Biden faring relatively poorly with non-white voters and with younger ones. YouGov’s data suggest that African-Americans favour Mr Biden over Mr Trump by a 72-percentage-point margin. That sounds impressive—yet Mrs Clinton won the same group by 80 points. Hispanics, too, have shifted away from the Democrats. Whereas Mrs Clinton won them by 38 points, they now say they will vote for Mr Biden by 28. In other words, Mr Trump is polling a bit better with blacks and Hispanics than he did last time round.

Young voters, a large majority of whom are Democrats, are also less likely to support the vice-president than they were to back Mrs Clinton. But the majority of eligible voters younger than 30 do not typically vote: only 43% of them showed up to the polls in 2016, based on numbers from the Census Bureau. And even though YouGov’s data suggest nearly 70% of all eligible adults will vote in November, the model expects only 53% of voters under the age of 30 to do so. Young people are also concentrated in the safest Democratic states, so are unlikely to have a large sway over the election. Thus Mr Biden can prosper despite a relatively weak performance among the Democratic Party’s core constituencies, because the electoral college makes them less important than they would be if the presidency were decided by a popular vote.

 

Guessing now how things will be in November is hard, for obvious reasons. In the past, one of the best predictors of a president’s chances has been the state of the economy. Today, after a 4.8% decline in gdp (at an annual rate) in the first quarter, any model that puts weight on that correlation predicts a blowout Biden win. Yet thanks to political polarisation, most voters no longer blame (or reward) the president for economic conditions.

The biggest constant since 2016 is that Mr Trump has retained his relative advantage in the electoral college. Because rural states both lean Republican and are rewarded with a disproportionately large number of votes, the deck is stacked in his favour. According to our mrp estimates, the president could lose the popular vote by two-to-three percentage points and still win the majority of electoral-college votes. His path to victory again runs through the Midwest, though he has added Minnesota and New Hampshire to his list of heavily working-class states that could flip from Democratic in 2016 to Republican in 2020.

That scenario looks unlikely at the moment, however. After all the fancy maths, six months before the election, Mr Biden is six points ahead of Mr Trump. If the vote were held today he would probably win.

 

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