2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

Polls like this are a lot about name recognition and Warren's senate seat probably makes her an unlikely choice, but Kamala does come in 2nd.

 

[Ghost of LL 15664]

The latest Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll shows Biden and Trump tied at 43% each in Texas.  That's the second poll in the last week to show the race in Texas to be a statistical tie.

[henrygandorf 29219]

37 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

The latest Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll shows Biden and Trump tied at 43% each in Texas.  That's the second poll in the last week to show the race in Texas to be a statistical tie.

once again, the polling itself > the actual outcome. if tx is close, it’s gonna be a merry christmas. 

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

A few polls this week that were missed.  Overall, this was good week for Trump, but still showing some weakness in battlegrounds.  

 

[henrygandorf 29219]

he’s trailing in a bunch of states he needs to win. but it was a good week for trump. 

[StassneyHorn 6755]

7 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

The latest Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll shows Biden and Trump tied at 43% each in Texas.  That's the second poll in the last week to show the race in Texas to be a statistical tie.

Got lost in all the Coronavirus questions and presidential polling

Also shows 87% of Texans Strongly support or support mandatory background checks (83% of Republicans agree)

71% strongly support or support red flag laws,  (59% of Republicans agree)

63% strongly support or support banning ammo clips of more than 10 bullets, (51% Republicans agree)

63% strongly support or support nationwide or state ban on assault weapons, (48% of Republicans agree)

51% strongly support or support a mandatory buyback program for assault weapons, (35% of a republicans agree)

 

[Snake Diggity 4698]

https://apple.news/ATABM1xWgTyqlTKHAFoadWA
 

Despite polls showing Biden clearly ahead, majority of voters expect Trump to win the election.  I fall in this category, and this article is a source of optimism for me, as it shows I am not alone in being skeptical of the polls and hesitant to take a Biden victory for granted.

[Biff Tannen 46061]

I think Biden needs to be +10% at minimum in order for me to feel somewhat comfortable.  The Rs cheating tactics alone will swing the results at least 5 points.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Got lost in all the Coronavirus questions and presidential polling
Also shows 87% of Texans Strongly support or support mandatory background checks (83% of Republicans agree)
71% strongly support or support red flag laws,  (59% of Republicans agree)
63% strongly support or support banning ammo clips of more than 10 bullets, (51% Republicans agree)
63% strongly support or support nationwide or state ban on assault weapons, (48% of Republicans agree)
51% strongly support or support a mandatory buyback program for assault weapons, (35% of a republicans agree)
 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[henrygandorf 29219]

28 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

if this holds, biden won't need any of the brown "tossup" states to win.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

if this holds, biden won't need any of the brown "tossup" states to win.

Yeah, I was just playing around with it and gave all the tops ups to trump. Biden still wins by 20. I know Dems have been bitching about the electoral college lately but it could easily lock up dem victories when a few states flip. When republicans have to start spending time and money defending places like North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas - it’s all over.

Also, fwiw in electoral college map above and in all of my comments I’m just giving republicans Florida and Ohio. 

[gmr548 16681]

 

That's petty aggressive in assuming AZ, and especially PA, are likely D while TX is a tossup. Pretty clearly a map made by an excited Democrat.

[SubliminalHorn 6995]

23 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That's petty aggressive in assuming AZ, and especially PA, are likely D while TX is a tossup. Pretty clearly a map made by an excited Democrat.

I’m guessing it was developed by where polling sits currently 

[Voldemort86 2259]

37 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That's petty aggressive in assuming AZ, and especially PA, are likely D while TX is a tossup. Pretty clearly a map made by an excited Democrat.

The only thing you’re right about is your complaint about Texas being in the tossup category. I agree that Texas is still definitely red.

as for Arizona, the GOP”s incumbent senator is already underwater. There’s a good chance mark kelly pulls Biden over the finish line in AZ.

Biden has a kind of homefield advantage in Pennsylvania ( Scranton). I would be surprised if Biden loses Michigan or Pennsylvania at this point.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Voldemort86

[gmr548 16681]

The only thing you’re right about is your complaint about Texas being in the tossup category. I agree that Texas is still definitely red.
as for Arizona, the GOP”s incumbent senator is already underwater. There’s a good chance mark kelly pulls Biden over the finish line in AZ.
Biden has a kind of homefield advantage in Pennsylvania ( Scranton). I would be surprised if Biden loses Michigan or Pennsylvania at this point.

Nothing you said is wrong, but they're grouped in with the likely D states of MI and MN, where the Democratic advantage has been more pronounced. They're ahead of NV, a straight up blue state at this point, and NC, which is probably the single most demographically vulnerable red state. I'm taking issue with the tint of blue, so it's mostly semantics, but it's aggressive in context of where other states are.

AZ is a red state that's pretty clearly tilting Democratic in this race right now. I think that underlying partisan lean makes it hard to go past thatb first shade of blue. Honestly what I've seen out of PA is mostly closer to a tossup but I do agree it still tilts Democratic if they get turnout.
The 2016 cycle was an anamoly there, Democrats cleaned house in the race for governor in 2018. It isn't on MI or MN's level though.

[bad_teammate 13479]

Update thread title with the guy that's going to deliver Michigan to Donald and probably a few others.

If he takes this run seriously, he will do better than Gary Johnson did in 2016.

The majority of pollsters in 2016 had Clinton losing more than Trump when Johnson was an option. Amash is much more respectable and known than Gary Johnson; he's young, (relatively) handsome, and can speak intelligently.

Those white suburban anti-Trumpers that the Democrats have been courting so hard for the last 5+ years are swearing up and down they've had ENOUGH and are going to vote Trump out, but when it comes down to it I don't see any way Amash doesn't do much better than Johnson with them.

[Guest Lobo]

What's the early word on what Amash does to the Trump/Biden dynamic in MI, WI, and OH (assuming the Buckeye fans aren't totally insane about a Wolverine)? 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Lobo

[bad_teammate 13479]

It will hurt Biden A LOT in Michigan.

w/out Amash: Biden +12
w/ Amash: Biden +6

Obviously Michigan is where Amash will have the biggest pull right now, but once this thing gets rolling and he starts doing national TV and the third party machinery (distributed as it is) unites around him, he can be very easily sold nationally.

People need to be talking to their friends and family about the threat this guy poses with regard to getting Trump a second term. 

[berlinerbaer 692]

17 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

It will hurt Biden A LOT in Michigan.

w/out Amash: Biden +12
w/ Amash: Biden +6

Obviously Michigan is where Amash will have the biggest pull right now, but once this thing gets rolling and he starts doing national TV and the third party machinery (distributed as it is) unites around him, he can be very easily sold nationally.

People need to be talking to their friends and family about the threat this guy poses with regard to getting Trump a second term. 

 

I agree with you completely since I am a nervous Democratic voter who still sweats over polls showing Biden ahead of Trump by 10 points in Arizona.

OTOH My brain sees your numbers and thinks if Amash only takes 6 away from Biden in Michigan, his strongest state, then it's much ado about nothing. My brain also tells me that third parties are overrated and have been since Perot, and that third parties have only ever negatively impacted incumbent parties. 

I expect nearly all Dem voters and indies who hate Trump will take an Amash run seriously and not be swayed. All it will take is a couple of polls in MI and PA to keep eyes on the ball.

I do worry about the right-leaners who don't give a shit but don't want the shame in voting for him. I worry because a Biden squeaker sends the country a much different message than a Biden landslide and that message isn't a good one. No, I wouldn't mind if he went away quietly.

[Bateshorn 9989]

Also, third party support tends to drop dramatically the election after it had an impact.  (See 68/72, 80/84, 92/96, 00/04). In essence traditionally aligned voters become much more wary of “throwing away” their vote, after having done it 4 years before. Instead they either come home or make the transition to the other side. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Bateshorn

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Amash isn't going to do jack shit. Very few people will waste any time on a 3rd party candidate in this particular election.  

He also doesn't want be the first word out of Americans' mouths on why Trump gets re-elected. 

I'm shocked he actually decided to run, as I didn't think he was a complete moron.

[henrygandorf 29219]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

AZ is a red state that's pretty clearly tilting Democratic in this race right now.

i want arizona to be a close state that biden wins and afterwards i want it to come out that trump's treatment of mccain was a big reason why.

[Aqua Buddha 14782]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Also, third party support tends to drop dramatically the election after it had an impact.  (See 68/72, 80/84, 92/96, 00/04). In essence traditionally aligned voters become much more wary of “throwing away” their vote, after having done it 4 years before. Instead they either come home or make the transition to the other side. 

Don't discount how retarded liberal voters are.  "I hate Trump but I'm unsure about Biden.  Any other people to vote for?"

[hayden_horn 11401]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Also, third party support tends to drop dramatically the election after it had an impact.  (See 68/72, 80/84, 92/96, 00/04). In essence traditionally aligned voters become much more wary of “throwing away” their vote, after having done it 4 years before. Instead they either come home or make the transition to the other side. 

as one of the actual gary johnson voters on this here bbs, this is me. i'm all in on the democratic side, as the current republican party are basically the equivalent of the nihilists from lebowski. 

[tantric superman 4668]

I voted for Gary Johnson as well, with the idea that I would be sending a message to both the Republican and Dem parties in a state where my vote wouldn't matter.

Neither got the message, but this time I just am going to say fuck you to the Republicans and the only way I can do that properly is to vote straight ticket D. 

I actually think JA will hurt the Republicans more unless Biden picks someone who freaks out the more conservative of the Dems.

[Snake Diggity 4698]

Amash will DEFINITELY hurt Biden more than Trump.  If it will be the difference in the outcome is debatable.  The only way a 3rd party candidate can hurt Trump is by outflanking him on the right.  A purer racist/anarchist would hurt Trump, but it doesn’t look like there’s anyone out there to step up.

[Hiphopopotamos 21158]

19 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Amash will DEFINITELY hurt Biden more than Trump.  If it will be the difference in the outcome is debatable.  The only way a 3rd party candidate can hurt Trump is by outflanking him on the right.  A purer racist/anarchist would hurt Trump, but it doesn’t look like there’s anyone out there to step up.

Are you familiar with Amash's politics?

 

[wildcat09 29556]

If the Dems can't use this:

to win ~60% of the popular vote, they need to all resign. The attack ads write themselves. He wants to take the money that pays for boomers' social security and medicare and give it to the businesses that squandered their last tax cut on stock buybacks, necessitating an enormous bailout when shit hit the fan. That's not even getting to them declaring victory and winding down the covid task force in early May, when we're going to be seeing the equivalent of daily 9/11s by the end of the month, nor Trump hijacking state emergency equipment and giving it to connected donors to resell at a markup to the people they stole it from.

[henrygandorf 29219]

8 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

If the Dems can't use this:

to win ~60% of the popular vote, they need to all resign. The attack ads write themselves. He wants to take the money that pays for boomers' social security and medicare and give it to the businesses that squandered their last tax cut on stock buybacks, necessitating an enormous bailout when shit hit the fan. That's not even getting to them declaring victory and winding down the covid task force in early May, when we're going to be seeing the equivalent of daily 9/11s by the end of the month, nor Trump hijacking state emergency equipment and giving it to connected donors to resell at a markup to the people they stole it from.

all his tweets like this are to play to his base.  that's the only play in his playbook.  he doesn't know how to get new voters.  he's somehow deluded himself into thinking his base is bigger than the 38-42% that he seems stuck on, and when his pollsters tell him he's wrong, he yells at them.

nothing needs to be "used against him".  there are no undecided voters.  just voters and non-voters (who can maybe be convinced to vote).

[Bateshorn 9989]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

 

nothing needs to be "used against him".  there are no undecided voters.  just voters and non-voters (who can maybe be convinced to vote).

This one of the best simple explanations of the 2020 election you will see.  Kudos.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Message Board User

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

I find it very interesting that Biden is thinking he is won and done to set up his VP.  I like that.  Come in with a clear plan to reverse some of the damage from Trump, and set up the VP.  The VP pick is very important.  Hearing Warren and Michelle Obama being bandied about, as well as Klobuchar.

 

[Pancho 46054]

I get the appeal of Obama, and there are plenty who want her to be the pick.  It just doesn’t seem like a job she wants.  And I know there’s a pretty big push to get her to be the VP selection.  

[Snake Diggity 4698]

3 hours ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Are you familiar with Amash's politics?

 

Poor wording on my part.  Instead of “outflanking him on the right” I should have said “outflanking him on the white”.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

all his tweets like this are to play to his base.  that's the only play in his playbook.  he doesn't know how to get new voters.  he's somehow deluded himself into thinking his base is bigger than the 38-42% that he seems stuck on, and when his pollsters tell him he's wrong, he yells at them.

nothing needs to be "used against him".  there are no undecided voters.  just voters and non-voters (who can maybe be convinced to vote).

 

3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

This one of the best simple explanations of the 2020 election you will see.  Kudos.

To some degree I agree.

But there is a split within his new "base."  He has his original base of deplorables.  They're big on populism.  But now he has his new base of plutocrats who are interested in capital-gains tax cuts.

There's a wedge in there that is waiting to be driven.  And I think you can get a bunch of the deplorables to stay home by highlighting how much he has done for the plutocrats at their expense.  Hell-they're poorly educated voters anyway.  They have a low turnout under the best of circumstances.  They want to stay home.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

Oh, and by the way, I saw a bunch of these exact same studies of "enthusiasm" leading up to the 2018 midterms.  They didn't ring true then, and they don't ring true now.

[MC Fresh Breath 4075]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/bidens-edge-evaporates-as-trump-seen-as-better-suited-for-economy-coronavirus-response-poll-shows-idUSKBN22I005

[henrygandorf 29219]

39 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

To some degree I agree.

But there is a split within his new "base."  He has his original base of deplorables.  They're big on populism.  But now he has his new base of plutocrats who are interested in capital-gains tax cuts.

There's a wedge in there that is waiting to be driven.  And I think you can get a bunch of the deplorables to stay home by highlighting how much he has done for the plutocrats at their expense.  Hell-they're poorly educated voters anyway.  They have a low turnout under the best of circumstances.  They want to stay home.

and you’re expecting these deplorables to stop voting against their own self-interests?  if they knew how to do that, they wouldn’t be deplorables. 

[Message Board User 12405]

to the Bernie bros or anyone thinking of voting for Amash….

 

[406W30th 1111]

7 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Don't discount how r***ed liberal voters are.  "I hate Trump but I'm unsure about Biden.  Any other people to vote for?"

Negged for the R word. Sorrynotsorry.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Don't discount how retarded liberal voters are.  "I hate Trump but I'm unsure about Biden.  Any other people to vote for?"

Uh Amash is never going to be appealing to liberals.

Take a gander at some of his votes in congress.







Some examples of his policy positions -




His only palatable positions to liberals, in addition to his pro-impeachment stance -




He has nothing attractive to liberals. He appeals to the few conservatives who still like to pretend to have sense of decorum.

[Anastasis 23699]

On the bright side, maybe not for liberals though, he is the only presidential candidate who has not had accusations of sexual assault brought against him. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

On the bright side, maybe not for liberals though, he is the only presidential candidate who has not had accusations of sexual assault brought against him. 

Not yet.

[Bama Chick 28596]

I get the appeal of Obama, and there are plenty who want her to be the pick.  It just doesn’t seem like a job she wants.  And I know there’s a pretty big push to get her to be the VP selection.  

Yeah I don’t know why some think Michelle wants to go into politics.

Are people just assuming she’s like Hilary Clinton?

Michelle never had policy responsibilities while Obama was president like Hilary did. She was a very traditional First Lady. The crazy right wingers and Fox News went out of their way to make it seem like she was acting in a political capacity and folks seem to have bought into that. She just tried to get kids to eat vegetables and read more; she never did anything close to leading the administration’s health care initiatives like Hilary did.

Hilary telegraphed her political ambition her entire tenure as First Lady and then immediately ran for the Senate and let it be known she was using that to bolster a future presidential run.

Michelle Obama has done nothing at all to imply she wants any elected office. She wrote a biography and did a speaking tour.

Fox News directed so much vitriol at her and implied political motivations for everything she did, even her wardrobe was fodder for them.

I think folks are equating the treatment she and Hilary both received and extrapolating that to make them the “same type of woman” - one who is with their spouse for the power and one who wants to use their husband’s coattails to achieve power for themselves.

So people assume since Hilary wanted that, Michelle must want that too.

Michelle Obama is nothing like Hilary Clinton. The only thing they have in common is they were both First Ladies.

[henrygandorf 29219]

the whole "i don't agree with amash's general agenda, but i do agree with amash's anti-trump agenda" is straight out of the sideshow bob runs for mayor episode.

https://comb.io/5BiVCQ

 

[Anastasis 23699]

6 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Not yet.

LOL. 

[Bateshorn 9989]

48 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Uh Amash is never going to be appealing to liberals.

Take a gander at some of his votes in congress.







Some examples of his policy positions -




His only palatable positions to liberals, in addition to his pro-impeachment stance -




He has nothing attractive to liberals. He appeals to the few conservatives who still like to pretend to have sense of decorum.

The joke in our house is Amash is the Rush of politicians:  good luck finding a girl at that concert.