2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[hookem2010 2597]

Got my mail in ballot application today, tore it up and tossed it in the trash. Just updated my drivers license address so these Wise county motherfuckers can't give me any shit when I go to vote in person on the first day of early voting.

[SilasCoade 2620]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Ladies and gentlemen, the president of the United States.

 

The cat sat on the hat. The hat was flat. Look mom, I can read!

[Guest Lobo]

"The mob will leave you alone if you give them what you want.  That's what it is."  

I feel like Kurt Russell in "Big Trouble in Little China" when he pounds the payphone in frustration, "What does that mean, huh?  China is here?  I don't even know what the hell that means."  

So if the thing I want is to be left alone by the mob, I give to them the thing of me being left alone by them and then they won't leave me alone because I wanted that thing.  That's what it is?  

[mchookem 16184]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Floyd Mayweather thinks Donald Trump is illiterate.

this is great, i'm stealing it 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, hookem2010 said:

Got my mail in ballot application today, tore it up and tossed it in the trash. Just updated my drivers license address so these Wise county motherfuckers can't give me any shit when I go to vote in person on the first day of early voting.

Give em hell.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

Looks like the Trump campaign is pulling advertising to conserve money....
Hope AP news is an acceptable source for y’all.
https://apnews.com/8738cac48d9b4c3f3b733c7bc0c7ff3b
 
they claim they will be doing more ads next week. But as the article points out it’s incredibly odd to pull ads within days of the convention. It’s also odd the states they are targeting. States he won handily. None of the above information means people should get complacent. I just thought the article was interesting. 

Much like all good Trump timelines, the Trump campaign will resume "the best" ads starting two weeks from now.

[troph 24560]

Just listen to trump and then Biden.  I mean its not close who is better prepared to lead the country.

Trump compared Biden to a mob boss and then uses the word fascism to describe him. It’s nuts.

[Storm the Field 5271]

Nominee for polling malpractice of the year. Apparent poll released today from some Brazilian outfit no one has ever heard of. I say "apparent poll" b/c I haven't seen an actual release outside of this tweet, which doesn't include a link to anything.

Aside from the ridiculous racial results, for the poll to be Biden +3 overall it would have to have something approaching an 85%+ white sample (by comparison, 2016 electorate was 71% white).

If you even somehow are willing to grant that Trump is doing 2x better with Latinos and 4x better with blacks than 2016,  if you re-run the numbers based on actual racial breakdown in 2016, it's Biden +6.

[6th Street 6354]

Good. Need more of these results to drive people to the polls

[Guest Lobo]

Can you tell it’s a Brazilian poll because they shaved a little off both sides?

[Storm the Field 5271]

Seeing some speculation that it may be a hoax and Political Polls got duped. There have been zero tweets by Atlas Intel since July 1, and their website doesn't list any American polling since February. 

[Herpa Derpa 6108]

11 hours ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

You people right now...

No shit. I know claiming Trump will "steal the election" is a great talking point right now, but it isn't reflective of the reality of our electoral system.  There is no national election, there are 50 state elections. Ask yourself if you believe the Trump Administration/Campaign is capable of the complex and monumental undertaking it would take to "steal" enough to matter.  Furthermore, of the meaningful battleground states, one should look at who the Governor, and more importantly, who the Secretary of State is in said state who will certify the results.  Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada all have D Govs and D SoS.  Arizona has a D SoS, with a weak R Gov. The only battleground state* in R hands is Florida, and Biden doesn't need it to win.  

Trump has gone dark on TV while Biden is flooding the airwaves.  The GOP convention was below the Ds in ratings, even on Fox.  Sure, Trump might raise more money, but which campaign do you trust in intelligently spending what they have and which will more likely use the funds in a greedy, self-help fashion.  Stop being worried about a man, and organization, that have failed at everything ever tried at life.  Getting elected to the Presidency is an accomplishment, getting a second term is being successful.  Trump has failed throughout life because he can't do the things necessary to sustain a positive outcome and turn it into long-term success.  We are witnessing him do it once again.  Trump is not a big, bad wolf who will take your candy.  He's a loser, who is once again losing.  The fat, orange emperor has always been naked.  Now is not the time to turtle and allow a second half comeback, now is the time to lean on strengths and run up the score.

*Georgia and Texas aren't battlegrounds until they have an election showing as such.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Herpa Derpa
*

[SydneyCarton 47836]

7 hours ago, Lobo said:

"The mob will leave you alone if you give them what you want.  That's what it is."  

I feel like Kurt Russell in "Big Trouble in Little China" when he pounds the payphone in frustration, "What does that mean, huh?  China is here?  I don't even know what the hell that means."  

So if the thing I want is to be left alone by the mob, I give to them the thing of me being left alone by them and then they won't leave me alone because I wanted that thing.  That's what it is?  

Automatic pos REP for any Big Trouble reference. 
 

 

2020 is the Hell of Being Liquified By Stupidity. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[SydneyCarton 47836]

1 hour ago, Herpa Derpa said:

No shit. I know claiming Trump will "steal the election" is a great talking point right now, but it isn't reflective of the reality of our electoral system.  There is no national election, there are 50 state elections. Ask yourself if you believe the Trump Administration/Campaign is capable of the complex and monumental undertaking it would take to "steal" enough to matter.  Furthermore, of the meaningful battleground states, one should look at who the Governor, and more importantly, who the Secretary of State is in said state who will certify the results.  Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada all have D Govs and D SoS.  Arizona has a D SoS, with a weak R Gov. The only battleground state* in R hands is Florida, and Biden doesn't need it to win.  

Trump has gone dark on TV while Biden is flooding the airwaves.  The GOP convention was below the Ds in ratings, even on Fox.  Sure, Trump might raise more money, but which campaign do you trust in intelligently spending what they have and which will more likely use the funds in a greedy, self-help fashion.  Stop being worried about a man, and organization, that have failed at everything ever tried at life.  Getting elected to the Presidency is an accomplishment, getting a second term is being successful.  Trump has failed throughout life because he can't do the things necessary to sustain a positive outcome and turn it into long-term success.  We are witnessing him do it once again.  Trump is not a big, bad wolf who will take your candy.  He's a loser, who is once again losing.  The fat, orange emperor has always been naked.  Now is not the time to turtle and allow a second half comeback, now is the time to lean on strengths and run up the score.

*Georgia and Texas aren't battlegrounds until they have an election showing as such.

Good thoughtful post, although my instincts aren’t to feel reassured. Trump just needs it to be close and throw in legal bullshit. People say he hasn’t been successful, but that’s not entirely correct. At sustaining businesses? No. But he’s been very successful at finding ways to emerge generally unscathed from all the destruction he has wrought and plow forward as he pleases. Uncannily successful. Often using legal means. That should keep us all somewhat unnerved. 
 

Also, if we are picking nits, I don’t think fox even ran the RNC. They wanted ratings so they kept Tucker Carlson on the air. And isnt Wisconsin run by shitbag Republicans? Folks here are always mentioning their particular level of evil. Realistically he doesn’t need a huge operation of fuckery. He’s already successfully hobbled the USPS, and he can win the electoral college by monkeying with a few fucking counties in just a couple states.  

Edited September 1, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[HenryJames 65884]

 

[HenryJames 65884]

 

[TXSG8R 3360]

3 hours ago, Herpa Derpa said:

No shit. I know claiming Trump will "steal the election" is a great talking point right now, but it isn't reflective of the reality of our electoral system.  There is no national election, there are 50 state elections. Ask yourself if you believe the Trump Administration/Campaign is capable of the complex and monumental undertaking it would take to "steal" enough to matter.  Furthermore, of the meaningful battleground states, one should look at who the Governor, and more importantly, who the Secretary of State is in said state who will certify the results.  Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada all have D Govs and D SoS.  Arizona has a D SoS, with a weak R Gov. The only battleground state* in R hands is Florida, and Biden doesn't need it to win.  

Trump has gone dark on TV while Biden is flooding the airwaves.  The GOP convention was below the Ds in ratings, even on Fox.  Sure, Trump might raise more money, but which campaign do you trust in intelligently spending what they have and which will more likely use the funds in a greedy, self-help fashion.  Stop being worried about a man, and organization, that have failed at everything ever tried at life.  Getting elected to the Presidency is an accomplishment, getting a second term is being successful.  Trump has failed throughout life because he can't do the things necessary to sustain a positive outcome and turn it into long-term success.  We are witnessing him do it once again.  Trump is not a big, bad wolf who will take your candy.  He's a loser, who is once again losing.  The fat, orange emperor has always been naked.  Now is not the time to turtle and allow a second half comeback, now is the time to lean on strengths and run up the score.

*Georgia and Texas aren't battlegrounds until they have an election showing as such.

Nevada's SoS is republican.  Georgia's too, and that probably closes the door on that state swinging blue this election.  

[Sawbonz 27392]

14 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Hah. This guy crunched the numbers in the crosstabs in the Emerson poll. 

That might be the worst electoral map I've ever seen.

How long before Trump retweets this

[Homercles 10205]

All you need to know about Fozz is his rep/post ratio is like 1/6...even garden variety shit posters manage better than that.  

[The Dog 43785]

9 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Nominee for polling malpractice of the year. Apparent poll released today from some Brazilian outfit no one has ever heard of. I say "apparent poll" b/c I haven't seen an actual release outside of this tweet, which doesn't include a link to anything.

Aside from the ridiculous racial results, for the poll to be Biden +3 overall it would have to have something approaching an 85%+ white sample (by comparison, 2016 electorate was 71% white).

If you even somehow are willing to grant that Trump is doing 2x better with Latinos and 4x better with blacks than 2016,  if you re-run the numbers based on actual racial breakdown in 2016, it's Biden +6.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200831_National.pdf

Not a hoax. Just a weird poll.

[GopherRock 1765]

As for Wisconsin, I'm not quite sure what to make of the cheese heads. 

They voted for Scott Walker 3 times in 4 years, and the Republican Assembly that he brought along has been a stain on basic human decency. 

On the other hand, it was special elections here that showed the 2018 blue wave building up steam. And a "crawl over broken glass and through a pandemic to vote Democrat" vibe among voters earlier this spring when they were forced to vote in person for their primary. 

I have no clue what to expect. 

[Bateshorn 9897]

Much like in late July/Early August, we are in a quality polling drought that should break starting tomorrow. Emerson had the race at Biden +4 on July 29.  Then we got a bunch of quality pre convention polls that all agree it was +8-10 Biden.  Either Emerson is on to something that everyone is missing (which is possible) or they are over-weighting a Trump positive demographic (which is more likely).  The biggest danger in this polling season is pollsters over learn the lesson of 2016, and overweight non college educated men to compensate for non responses.

 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Bateshorn

[gmr548 16482]

Much like in late July/Early August, we are in a quality polling drought that should break starting tomorrow. Emerson had the race at Biden +4 on July 29.  Then we got a bunch of quality pre convention polls that all agree it was +8-10 Biden.  Either Emerson is on to something that everyone is missing (which is possible) or they are over-weighting a Trump positive demographic (which is more likely).  The biggest danger in this polling season is pollsters over learn the lesson of 2016, and overweight non college educated men to compensate for non responses.
 

Maybe both. Maybe they are overweighting pro-Trump demos, but maybe that is the correct approach given the administration is openly trying to rig the election.

[Bateshorn 9897]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

32 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Much like in late July/Early August, we are in a quality polling drought that should break starting tomorrow. Emerson had the race at Biden +4 on July 29.  Then we got a bunch of quality pre convention polls that all agree it was +8-10 Biden.  Either Emerson is on to something that everyone is missing (which is possible) or they are over-weighting a Trump positive demographic (which is more likely).  The biggest danger in this polling season is pollsters over learn the lesson of 2016, and overweight non college educated men to compensate for non responses.
 

Maybe both. Maybe they are overweighting pro-Trump demos, but maybe that is the correct approach given the administration is openly trying to rig the election.

It's a point worth considering. 

[Michael Knight 12878]

Don't kill yourself on election day, wait  a week

A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted. 

https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios-a554e8f5-9702-437e-ae75-d2be478d42bb.html

[SydneyCarton 47836]

2 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Don't kill yourself on election day, wait  a week

A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted. 

https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios-a554e8f5-9702-437e-ae75-d2be478d42bb.html

That’s the worst case scenario for anyone hoping to avoid armed conflict on the streets. 

[Anastasis 23390]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That’s the worst case scenario for anyone hoping to avoid armed conflict on the streets. 

I agree, shit gonna light up.  We should be voting by internet. If we can figure out secure methods to file taxes we should be able to figure out secure methods to submit our votes. 

[27-25 2040]

8 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Don't kill yourself on election day, wait  a week

A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted. 

https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios-a554e8f5-9702-437e-ae75-d2be478d42bb.html

Which is exactly one of my fears.  How much pressure will DJT and the RNC apply on election night for Biden to concede and results to be declared?

Do you recall the relatively small group that protested the recount in FL in 2000?  I fear something far worse this time around.

I live in CA now, so I'm fairly confident my mail in ballot will be counted.  If I lived in some other states the level of confidence would be far less.  This is the America in which we live, which is chilling.

[gmr548 16482]

Don't kill yourself on election day, wait  a week
A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted. 

https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios-a554e8f5-9702-437e-ae75-d2be478d42bb.html

Votev in person. Can't count on mail in at this point. They're not even hiding it.

[jimmyjazz 45538]

It is vital that everyone encourage all their friends and family to drop off their mail-in ballots prior to election day.  Don't take the chance with mail-in votes.

[Goredho 17341]

Just now, Anastasis said:

I agree, shit gonna light up.  We should be voting by internet. If we can figure out secure methods to file taxes we should be able to figure out secure methods to submit our votes. 

There should be redbox/atm voting terminals all over the fucking place with voting open over 2 weeks.  Swipe your ID.  Swipe your ballot.  Walk away.

If its open to the intardnet, there is a large attack surface that needs to be locked down hard.  If it just collects data locally that is physically pulled from it after voting is complete, you could have people physically destroying the devices to prevent votes being counted.  Maybe it would be worth developing a new www-like network infrastructure that is not connected to the world-wide web that only these devices and ballot counting hubs are connected to.

[thepop 4409]

 

[jimmyjazz 45538]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

There should be redbox/atm voting terminals all over the fucking place with voting open over 2 weeks.  Swipe your ID.  Swipe your ballot.  Walk away.

Yes, and it would even be fine if these terminals were only accessible with certain types of ID.  Certainly a Texas drivers license should suffice, maybe a passport, a state ID, all should be "readable".  Electric bill?  Not so much -- vote in person.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

1 hour ago, GopherRock said:

As for Wisconsin, I'm not quite sure what to make of the cheese heads. 

They voted for Scott Walker 3 times in 4 years, and the Republican Assembly that he brought along has been a stain on basic human decency. 

On the other hand, it was special elections here that showed the 2018 blue wave building up steam. And a "crawl over broken glass and through a pandemic to vote Democrat" vibe among voters earlier this spring when they were forced to vote in person for their primary. 

I have no clue what to expect. 

 

I remember when something like Foxconn alone would be enough to cause serious problems for the party responsible 

[Chooky 13296]

Feels like we're headed for perpetual turmoil and it's depressing. 

[Anastasis 23390]

24 minutes ago, Goredho said:

There should be redbox/atm voting terminals all over the fucking place with voting open over 2 weeks.  Swipe your ID.  Swipe your ballot.  Walk away.

If its open to the intardnet, there is a large attack surface that needs to be locked down hard.  If it just collects data locally that is physically pulled from it after voting is complete, you could have people physically destroying the devices to prevent votes being counted.  Maybe it would be worth developing a new www-like network infrastructure that is not connected to the world-wide web that only these devices and ballot counting hubs are connected to.

Seems reasonable to me.  

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

 

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

 

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

34 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

51 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Don't kill yourself on election day, wait  a week
A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the votes are counted. 

https://www.axios.com/bloomberg-group-trump-election-night-scenarios-a554e8f5-9702-437e-ae75-d2be478d42bb.html

Votev in person. Can't count on mail in at this point. They're not even hiding it.

The Republican go to move over the past decade has been force as many ballots to provisional status and then bitch about counting provisional ballots.

[SydneyCarton 47836]

9 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Feels like we're headed for perpetual turmoil and it's depressing. 

I'm sorry, you're just now getting depressed? 

[4th&Five 41457]

3 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

[jimmyjazz 45538]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Seems reasonable to me.  

Communist.

[Hank Kingsley 20676]

14 minutes ago, Chooky said:

Feels like we're headed for perpetual turmoil and it's depressing. 

No end in sight. 

The next couple of months are going to be really bad. The temperature will rise daily as we head into November. If Trump's polling continues to look bad, his desperation will increase and they will throw so much shit on the wall and the violence will be much worse. 

God help us if he wins. The chaos on the streets will increase by the thousands. 

 

[Dahobbs 17420]

48 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I agree, shit gonna light up.  We should be voting by internet. If we can figure out secure methods to file taxes we should be able to figure out secure methods to submit our votes. 

Just no. 

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

13 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Biff Tannen
dammit 4thand5

[Goredho 17341]

14 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Seems reasonable to me.  

@F250 could probably weigh in heavily on what other hurdles there might be to making this happen.  But really, it is just a question of will.

[Chooky 13296]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm sorry, you're just now getting depressed? 

Nah. Just now combining fatigue with depression. There's been so much that has just been miserable to witness. But when I'm almost completely incapable of laughing at any of it anymore I just want to tune it out until November 10th or 20th or 2024. It's too repulsive these days. 

[Hank Kingsley 20676]

 

[SydneyCarton 47836]

7 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

No end in sight. 

The next couple of months are going to be really bad. The temperature will rise daily as we head into November. If Trump's polling continues to look bad, his desperation will increase and they will throw so much shit on the wall and the violence will be much worse. 

God help us if he wins. The chaos on the streets will increase by the thousands. 

 

I just don't know if I agree with this. I don't disagree with your statement at all, but I'm not so sure it won't be just as bad or worse if he wins. Especially after a delayed count of absentee ballots. His base is much more prone to violence, militarization, and they will be urged to just that. They're also less intelligent and much more likely to take a knee-jerk response, like say, driving across state lines as a 17 year old with a fucking long gun to "protect property." What do you think happens when you substitute "property" for "liberty" in those minds? I'm not sure either path is safer than the other. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

a little from column a and little from b here:

1) noted alumnus g elliot morris doesn't put much stock in the election changing over time as mail ins come.  

2) we got a little preview of things changing over time in 2018.  if you recall, the tenor that night was "there was no real blue wave".  then election after election broke Ds way the next couple of weeks, so it seems a little real to me.