2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[The Dog 44138]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s not necessarily the case. I’m pretty sure you are wrong about this. When he gets donkey stomped he will lose the platform. Literally and figuratively. It will become (I hope) Paul Ryan’s party (maybe not actually him but someone like him). 

He's correct that the RNC has no official platform for this year - it's simply "Trumps second term agenda". Whatever that is. 

If Trump loses (and that is looking to be more and more likely the case) then this may not be a bad thing long-term for Republicans. It gives them a chance to re-assess and reset. 

[Wulaw Horn 19148]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

You really don't understand cults, do you?

Stop thinking about the GOP as a political party.  It's not.  Not even a little bit.  It is a nihilist death cult that believes in only grievance and power.  This conventional thinking of it as a political party, as if the GOP was the party of Eisenhower or something, just has to fucking go.  It's irrational and at odds with the current reality.

Counterpoint:

you don’t understand what happens when people get their ass kicked. Aggy is an exception to the rule  

[Wulaw Horn 19148]

Just now, The Dog said:

He's correct that the RNC has no official platform for this year - it's simply "Trumps second term agenda". Whatever that is. 

If Trump loses (and that is looking to be more and more likely the case) then this may not be a bad thing long-term for Republicans. It gives them a chance to re-assess and reset. 

Yes. This is exactly my point. He owns the party now, but I contend if he gets his ass kicked that all goes away. 

[Brisketexan 105309]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Counterpoint:

you don’t understand what happens when people get their ass kicked. Aggy is an exception to the rule  

AND THE GOP IS AGGY.  They are the essence of aggy-ness.  They are the most Aggy movement in US history outside of Aggy itself.  You ALMOST get it....you're so close.  Just cross that last gap -- 1) Sane people change course after they get their asses kicked.  2) Aggy is an exception, because they are fucking nuts.  Go ahead and get to the conclusion: 3) the GOP is Aggy.  Therefore, they will not change course.

[Hank Kingsley 21048]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, I neg myself for responding to it, then.  But goddamn...it's literally the most Susan Collins thing I could ever imagine being said.

Completely understandable to believe it's real. 

Twitter users' desire for engagement/retweets make it impossible to get fully factual information. It's a big problem. 

 

[henrygandorf 29194]

Just now, The Dog said:

He's correct that the RNC has no official platform for this year - it's simply "Trumps second term agenda". Whatever that is. 

looking at this objectively, every move trump made the last 4 years was made in order to position himself for reelection.  bolton said it, others have said it, and it's fucking obvious.  you can literally take everything he's said or done and chip away and "reelection" is hidden somewhere inside (usually not that well hidden).

which begs the question - if he does win, what's he going to "do" for the next 4 years?  i put do in quotes because donald trump doesn't actually do things.  he talks about doing things, he postures, he bloviates, he threatens, but he doesn't actually do anything, because doing things requires a little work, and work isn't what he's about.

people warn about a trump second term, and how with no reelection calculus, he'll run amok, no guardrails, nothing to contain or control him.  um, that's him now.  i honestly don't think he'll be any worse in the next 4 years.  i think he'll play more golf and replace more semi-competent govt people with people who are nice to him.  he'll pack more judges (because that's not really work he has to do), and he'll make it harder and harder to fix the infrastructure that's been around for a century. 

more than that, he'll line his pockets, and those close to him.  and he'll try to angle for some sort of nobel prize lol.  it'll feel like hell because it'll last another 4 years, but the degree will be ~ the same.  he's doing whatever he wants right now with zero accountability.  and i have no idea what 2024 will look like, because i'll discontinue any type of cable news channels we currently get.

[Anastasis 23482]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Twitter users' desire for engagement/retweets make it impossible to get fully factual information. It's a big problem. 

This.  Basically anything from twitter, and esp political twitter, requires you to operate from the baseline assumption that it is primarily about pushing an agenda to generate likes and retweets requires substantial vetting. 

[David Dennison 18946]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

That's actually what makes the current situation so fucking dangerous.  You are a GOP congressman or senator.  You see two possible outcomes: 1) a Biden win, which is part of and results in a crippling of the GOP as a national party, leaving you frozen out of power for a long-ass time, and possibly facing criminal sanction for some of the bullshit you've engaged in with the regime, or 2) a Trump win, which sees you and your party cemented into a place of power for decades to come in what will be, functionally, a monarchy.

They have to do anything and everything possible to achieve option 2.  It's literally an existential question for them and their party.  And when you are fighting for your life.....you'll do fucking anything.  ANYTHING.  They will 100% support Trump dispatching federal paramilitary troops to seize ballot boxes.  They will support foreign interference and hacking, and will cover for it after the fact.  They will do whatever it takes to cement their hold on power for life.

This is our concern, dude.  It's not just Trump -- it's the entire GOP apparatus behind him, which quite some time ago decided to function like a criminal enterprise.

Election night is going to test this country in a way that it hasn't been tested since the Civil War. 

When Donald Trump declares victory on election night, it's gut check time.

I have no idea what will happen.

[Mo Horn 8854]

22 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Collins fucking sucks. But FYI, that isn't a real quote and is nowhere in the article. Looks like that Twitter account took some poetic license and people just assumed it was authentic and retweeted it like crazy. 

 Well shit. I posted it without checking. Apologies Surly.

[The Dog 44138]

39 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Fun with partisan response error. Seeing some major bedwetting regarding this PPP Michigan poll that just came out Biden +4 (48-44), down from +6 a month ago (50-44).

Pretty much the entire shift can be chalked up to going from a DEM + 7 sample to DEM +4 sample. Also, slightly older pool of respondents.. Went from 63% aged 45+ to 66%. 

Field dates were the 2 days immediately following the RNC.

and even with that lower DEM sample Trump's support remained the same.

 

[Brisketexan 105309]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Election night is going to test this country in a way that it hasn't been tested since the Civil War. 

When Donald Trump declares victory on election night, it's gut check time.

I have no idea what will happen.

I do.

People are going to die.  And not just a couple.

[David Dennison 18946]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I do.

People are going to die.  And not just a couple.

Wonderful.

[Longhorn94 2458]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

AND THE GOP IS AGGY.  They are the essence of aggy-ness.  They are the most Aggy movement in US history outside of Aggy itself.  You ALMOST get it....you're so close.  Just cross that last gap -- 1) Sane people change course after they get their asses kicked.  2) Aggy is an exception, because they are fucking nuts.  Go ahead and get to the conclusion: 3) the GOP is Aggy.  Therefore, they will not change course.

But Aggy gets its ass kicked all the time and lose ever major game. so i dont give a shit if the GOP/Aggy gets its ass kicked, loses the election, and goes off by themselves and still tries to convince everyone they are relevant. At some point, the SEC/normal Republicans? will say, nah man we aint down with all the weird shit. maybe if you won, but since you dont and it doesnt look like you ever will again, we are done with your shit. i mean the Manziel game against Bama / 2016 election was nice and all but that was a long time ago now and you aint won shit in the last 4 / MORE years and we aint playing along anymore.

[Brisketexan 105309]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Wonderful.

I mean, I'm not exactly being a sage here.  I'm just applying the Rule of Trump's America: "Imagine how bad it could be.  It will be worse than that."

[Aqua Buddha 14608]

13 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Election night is going to test this country in a way that it hasn't been tested since the Civil War. 

When Donald Trump declares victory on election night, it's gut check time.

I have no idea what will happen.

Fifty-two percent of adults say they will vote early — with 19 percent saying they will vote early in person and 33 percent more saying they will vote by mail. About a third of adults, 33 percent, say they will vote in person on Election Day, and 11 percent say they might not vote at all.

 

There's a stark difference in voting plans when broken down by party affiliation, however. Fifty-four percent of adults who identify as Republican or lean that way say they will vote in person on Election Day, while just 22 percent of Democrats and those who lean Democratic say the same. Democrats are much more likely to vote by mail — with 50 percent saying that's their plan for November, compared to just 18 percent of Republicans who say they'll mail in their ballots.

Another 21 percent of Republicans say they'll vote early in person, and 21 percent of Democrats agree. Independents are much more likely to track with Democrats: 20 percent of them say they'll vote in person on Election Day, 13 percent say they'll vote early in person, and 29 percent say they'll vote by mail.

[Biff Tannen 45724]

WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU NOT VOTE EARLY IF YOU HAD THE CHANCE?  Are there really that many states that don't have the option?

[Aqua Buddha 14608]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU NOT VOTE EARLY IF YOU HAD THE CHANCE?  Are there really that many states that don't have the option?

I've never understood the people who stand in line for hours on election day if they have early voting as an option.  I haven't voted on election day since 2000.

[4th&Five 41586]

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Also....there is no future for "I'm GOP but I am not aligned with Trump" in the GOP.  The GOP is only Trump and Trumpism.  For fuck's sake, it's not my hyperbole -- the party literally no longer has a platform; their sole position is now just "whatever's Trumpy."  Any current GOP elected official has only one path forward, if they depend on GOP voters for their fate (so, functionally all of them) -- stick with Trump and Trumpism.  And by the way, that will be true even if Trump loses, because it's his party now.  He will control it from his Twitter account and his daily time block on OANN (soon to be "Trump TV").  Kiss the ring, or be gone.

The party that believes in nothing shouldn’t have a platform so they made the right choice there.

[Bama Chick 28596]

“Paul Ryan’s party”

That shit gave us Trump.

Fuck Paul Ryan and fuck anyone using him as some “return to normal” measuring stick.

[gmr548 16612]

That’s not necessarily the case. I’m pretty sure you are wrong about this. When he gets donkey stomped he will lose the platform. Literally and figuratively. It will become (I hope) Paul Ryan’s party (maybe not actually him but someone like him). 

You really don't understand cults, do you?
Stop thinking about the GOP as a political party.  It's not.  Not even a little bit.  It is a nihilist death cult that believes in only grievance and power.  This conventional thinking of it as a political party, as if the GOP was the party of Eisenhower or something, just has to fucking go.  It's irrational and at odds with the current reality.

Also Paul Ryan is a dipshit

[gmr548 16612]

Counterpoint:
you don’t understand what happens when people get their ass kicked. Aggy is an exception to the rule  

The Trump GOP is essentially the party of aggy so I'm not sure this makes the point you want it to

[Brandywine 1316]

I believe, and I think his followers believe also, that no matter how far the polls show he’s losing, if you have patience and with his blowhard cult follower talents, he’ll win in the end. I personally don’t believe he’s scared one bit. He has it all set up for him to win - chaos, lies and mistrust. And I wouldn’t be surprised if ballots aren’t destroyed. I would believe anything at this point. 

[Wulaw Horn 19148]

Just now, gmr548 said:

Also Paul Ryan is a dipshit

It’s not like you are going to love any republican or anything,  it that was just stand in for “not someone who is beholden to Trump or part of his cult of personality In DC”. Mitt Romney is too old and already lost once running for president so I wouldn’t think he’d be “leader of the party material”. 
point is, yes, the GOP is currently a cult of personality and no, it won’t be once that cult leader gets his teeth kicked in. I’m pretty sure. 

[Snake Diggity 4627]

2 hours ago, Longhorn94 said:

i mean thats one way to look at it. the other is to say fuck this guy and separate yourself from him and then do everything you can to win re-election and then reinvent yourself as a fiscal conservative and lob mazel tov cocktails at Biden and the Democrats from the balcony. i mean thats what i would do, assuming i had not put myself on the "to be investigated and imprisoned" list for doing a bunch of criming while Trump was in office.

Lmfao @ “mazel tov cocktails”

[gmr548 16612]

It’s not like you are going to love any republican or anything,  it that was just stand in for “not someone who is beholden to Trump or part of his cult of personality In DC”. Mitt Romney is too old and already lost once running for president so I wouldn’t think he’d be “leader of the party material”. 
point is, yes, the GOP is currently a cult of personality and no, it won’t be once that cult leader gets his teeth kicked in. I’m pretty sure. 

The list of GOPs in power that haven't totally sold out to Trump is basically 3-4 popular northeastern governors that are no less liberal than Joe Biden.

If Trump loses, and especially if Democrats get the trifecta, Trumpism is still going to have a huge influence on the GOP. Less Paul Ryan and more Tom Cotton. The cult of personality may be gone - though honestly, you think Trump, Don Jr, Jared etc. are just gonna go away? - but the platform won't. That can of white grievance was opened and it's going to take a generation to subdue it.

[Wulaw Horn 19148]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The list of GOPs in power that haven't totally sold out to Trump is basically 3-4 popular northeastern governors that are no less liberal than Joe Biden.

If Trump loses, and especially if Democrats get the trifecta, Trumpism is still going to have a huge influence on the GOP. Less Paul Ryan and more Tom Cotton. The cult of personality may be gone - though honestly, you think Trump, Don Jr, Jared etc. are just gonna go away? - but the platform won't. That can of white grievance was opened and it's going to take a generation to subdue it.

Yeah- I think if they get their asses kicked they will absolutely go away. Or will be ignored. 

[heso 2816]

20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- I think if they get their asses kicked they will absolutely go away. Or will be ignored. 

It will be ignored where it can be, but there are many places, many house districts where Trumpism has take over as the main religion. Places that were democratic union strongholds for 75 years. The unions have withered, the jobs aren’t there, and the populace was lost and angry with no one to blame except Obama. After 2009 the jobs came back in the cities, but not nearly as much in the rural areas. Along came Trump making promises about bringing things back to the old days, when American manufacturing was king and blacks and women knew their place. That was a real seductive message to those regions and anyone that is willing to carry that banner will thrive for another 20-30 years at least. 

[Hank Chinaski 6318]

33 minutes ago, heso said:

It will be ignored where it can be, but there are many places, many house districts where Trumpism has take over as the main religion. Places that were democratic union strongholds for 75 years. The unions have withered, the jobs aren’t there, and the populace was lost and angry with no one to blame except Obama. After 2009 the jobs came back in the cities, but not nearly as much in the rural areas. Along came Trump making promises about bringing things back to the old days, when American manufacturing was king and blacks and women knew their place. That was a real seductive message to those regions and anyone that is willing to carry that banner will thrive for another 20-30 years at least. 

Right, but you'd think they'd have to actually produce at some point. 

Then again, that assumes that people are rational. So, never mind. 

[elfenix 34332]

9 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Just no. 

 

 

xckd is great, and better with the alt text:

Quote

There are a lot of very smart people doing fascinating work on cryptographic voting protocols.  We should be funding and encouraging them, and doing all our elections with paper ballots until everyone currently working in that field has retired.

 

[Bookman 4640]

10 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Right, but you'd think they'd have to actually produce at some point. 

Then again, that assumes that people are rational. So, never mind. 

If there's anything that 2016 taught us, it's that an awful large percentage of this country cares only about what a person says. All it takes is someone with charisma who is willing to tell them what they want to hear.

[Guest Lobo]

31 minutes ago, Bookman said:

If there's anything that 2016 taught us, it's that an awful large percentage of this country cares only about what a person says. All it takes is someone with charisma who is willing to tell them what they want to hear.

That's just it, he doesn't have any charisma.  He does tell them what they want to hear and he uses a rudimentary vocabulary and cadence that they can glob onto.  But he doesn't have any charisma.  I'll acknowledge he has certain attributes, but charisma isn't one of them.  He has the illusion of wealth, intelligence, experience, leadership, and a great many other things.  But he has never appeared charismatic, nor does he even try to project charisma.  I think he did he "tried" in his younger years, but not for the last 20 years or so.  

Anyway, I get your point.  His delivery is for shit, but the acceptance of it is off the charts powerful.  

[Bateshorn 9936]

12 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Also Paul Ryan is a dipshit

This

[Ted Lange 16134]

 

[Sawbonz 27585]

1 hour ago, Bookman said:

If there's anything that 2016 taught us, it's that an awful large percentage of this country cares only about what a person says. All it takes is someone with charisma who is willing to tell them what they want to hear.

What did 2018 teach us?

[Mo Horn 8854]

29 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

What did 2018 teach us?

Quote

The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: since World War II the President's party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate.

That it was a typical midterm election.

[Sawbonz 27585]

1 minute ago, Mo Horn said:

That it was a typical midterm election.

So the world’s not coming to an end? Hmm

[Mo Horn 8854]

6 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

So the world’s not coming to an end? Hmm

No, but that had very little bearing on this year's election. An incumbent has a huge advantage and the percentages say he almost always wins. So the world not coming to an end, as you say, doesn't bode well for Biden. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Mo Horn

[Sawbonz 27585]

5 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

No, but that had very little bearing on this year's election. An incumbent has a huge advantage and the percentages say he almost always wins. So the world not coming to an end, as you say, doesn't bode well for Biden. 

So you think Trump wins?

[Bookman 4640]

2018 was not typical. Voter turnout was huge.

[Bozo_Casanova 26531]

15 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s not necessarily the case. I’m pretty sure you are wrong about this. When he gets donkey stomped he will lose the platform. Literally and figuratively. It will become (I hope) Paul Ryan’s party (maybe not actually him but someone like him). 

[Mo Horn 8854]

8 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

So you think Trump wins?

 If I were forced to put money on it, I'd say no. But nothing about the last 4+ years has made sense. I never thought he'd get the nomination, much less win last time. Nothing surprises me anymore, and nothing is for sure. I'm taking nothing for granted. 

[Sawbonz 27585]

Just now, Bookman said:

2018 was not typical. Voter turnout was huge.

 And I would expect turn out to be bigger this year. Arguments for Trump winning are

50% of the country is part of his death cult

He’s  going to cheat to win

Even if he loses, he won’t leave.

 

I don’t think that happens. I think if half the country were in his death cult, Republicans would’ve at least held serve in 2018. He’s absolutely going to try to cheat but it won’t matter. Social media amplifies the hardcore supporters on both ends of the spectrum. This election will be won or lost in the middle and trump is despised by every moderate I know (and yes there still are a shitload of us).
 

The most likely scenario is he loses the popular vote by a bigger percentage than in 2016 and he loses in the EC. He then leaves office when Biden is sworn in. 

[Biff Tannen 45724]

3 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

nothing about the last 4+ years has made sense. I never thought he'd get the nomination, much less win last time. Nothing surprises me anymore, and nothing is for sure. I'm taking nothing for granted. 

This x10000000.  We have to play like we are behind because we damn well may be.  Vote.  Get everyone you fucking know who isn't a complete fucking moron to vote.  Hell, even the morons.  Well, ok, maybe not the morons.

[Guest Lobo]

It's not enough just to vote.  We're gonna have to contend with voter suppression, miscounts in swing states, deceit, fraud, etc.  
 

He has to lose at the polls, lose at the final EC count, lose the court battles, get convicted of crimes in New York, and then die painfully alone in Florida, and his grave shat upon. 

You guys just looking to get a sticker on Election Day are already part of the problem. 

The movement must be eviscerated, otherwise his close ballot loss just becomes a rallying point. 

[Red Five 40885]

9 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

50% of the country is part of his death cult

No it's not. 

[Sawbonz 27585]

Just now, Red Five said:

No it's not. 

Well you wouldn’t think that from reading this forum

[Biff Tannen 45724]

5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

It's not enough just to vote.  We're gonna have to contend with voter suppression, miscounts in swing states, deceit, fraud, etc.  
 

He has to lose at the polls, lose at the final EC count, lose the court battles, get convicted of crimes in New York, and then die painfully alone in Florida, and his grave shat upon. 

You guys just looking to get a sticker on Election Day are already part of the problem. 

The movement must be eviscerated, otherwise his close ballot loss just becomes a rallying point. 

Hey, you won't see me arguing against this.  Especially the grave part.

[Guest Lobo]

Just 20% of the overall U.S. Population voted for Trump in 2016.  Just 30% of the U.S. Population over 18 voted for Trump in 2016.  With higher turnout expected this year (despite suppression efforts), only ~45% of the actual voters casting ballots in the U.S. will vote for Trump.  

This "40% of America are Trumpers" is a bullshit narrative that anti-Trumpers themselves help propagate and it's maddening.  There's not some silent bloc of 50,000,000 Trumpers in this country that adhere to his ethos, wear the red hat, wave his flags, and then just stay at home on Election Day.  That's not happening.  Sure he's got plenty of ex-felon supporters and people who's rascal scooter batteries wouldn't work on election day, so those supporters/can'tvoters maybe take his total support up 70mm citizens.  That's just 1/3rd of the U.S. adult population.  It's not 40, not 42, not 46, not 50.  HIs total support numbers at 33% of the American adult population.  And only 21% of the total U.S. population.  That's it.  They're loud, they're proud, they're disavowed.  

Now a thread for another time would be how will the nation deal with the children raised solely on Trumpism going forward?  Those kids that "came of age" during Trump's rise to power/its aftermath.  We know much of his demographic will die off soon enough, but what about the younger ones that only knew Trumpism?  There's gonna be a few million of them hitting society in the next decade.  What the fuck do we do then?  

[Anastasis 23482]

2 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

 If I were forced to put money on it, I'd say no. But nothing about the last 4+ years has made sense. I never thought he'd get the nomination, much less win last time. Nothing surprises me anymore, and nothing is for sure. I'm taking nothing for granted. 

Nobody did.  But in hindsight, I think that it is understandable. He was the culmination of decades of the GOP governing contrary to their stated principles (fiscal responsibility, limited government, etc.).  That was all bullshit, they have no core governing principles, and as that became apparent it gave an opening to a narcissistic con man to squeeze out the establishment, take over the brainless base, and fill the void with whatever he wanted. Couple that with the other arm of our dysfunctional binary political system marginalizing an insurgent candidate in favor of the the most polarizing persona within their ranks, a particularly shitty closing effort to the campaign, coupled with Comey interfering in the weeks before ballots were cast, and ridiculous rating driven media coverage of the entire presidential campaign, and well, that was pretty much 2016.

 

Politically, Trump is the best thing to have happened to the democratic party in a long time. I don't think that the GOP recovers from Trump anytime soon at national level. And given our binary political system that heavily favors the Democrats.  If HRC had won, the GOP would have likely solidified house and Senate control in 2018, and would probably have a fairly good chance of taking decisive control of both branches in 2020.  In the process, they would have traded off 1 net SCOTUS seat to the Dems (Scalia and RBG imo, kennedy holds out). As it turns out, the Dem's gave up one net seat, the GOP accomplished virtually nothing legislatively, the Dems are on verge of winning POTUS, solidifying house, have a hypermotivated base+ and could give the senate a good run for its money.