2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

30 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What can I say- I’m an optimist. 

[Tom 2959]

15 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I've never understood the people who stand in line for hours on election day if they have early voting as an option.  I haven't voted on election day since 2000.

 

15 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU NOT VOTE EARLY IF YOU HAD THE CHANCE?  Are there really that many states that don't have the option?

 

15 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I've never understood the people who stand in line for hours on election day if they have early voting as an option.  I haven't voted on election day since 2000.

 

I'm equally concerned that half of all Democrats polled are planning on voting by mail with all the nonsense going on with the USPS.  I'd given up on that idea a while ago.  

[Sawbonz 27375]

16 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Nobody did.  But in hindsight, I think that it is understandable. He was the culmination of decades of the GOP governing contrary to their stated principles (fiscal responsibility, limited government, etc.).  That was all bullshit, they have no core governing principles, and as that became apparent it gave an opening to a narcissistic con man to squeeze out the establishment, take over the brainless base, and fill the void with whatever he wanted. Couple that with the other arm of our dysfunctional binary political system marginalizing an insurgent candidate in favor of the the most polarizing persona within their ranks, a particularly shitty closing effort to the campaign, coupled with Comey interfering in the weeks before ballots were cast, and ridiculous rating driven media coverage of the entire presidential campaign, and well, that was pretty much 2016.

 

Politically, Trump is the best thing to have happened to the democratic party in a long time. I don't think that the GOP recovers from Trump anytime soon at national level. And given our binary political system that heavily favors the Democrats.  If HRC had won, the GOP would have likely solidified house and Senate control in 2018, and would probably have a fairly good chance of taking decisive control of both branches in 2020.  In the process, they would have traded off 1 net SCOTUS seat to the Dems (Scalia and RBG imo, kennedy holds out). As it turns out, the Dem's gave up one net seat, the GOP accomplished virtually nothing legislatively, the Dems are on verge of winning POTUS, solidifying house, have a hypermotivated base+ and could give the senate a good run for its money. 

I mean Pete Sessions lost to a black dude for Christ’s sake. 

[Saint Tacky 1609]

15 hours ago, The Dog said:

If Trump loses (and that is looking to be more and more likely the case) then this may not be a bad thing long-term for Republicans. It gives them a chance to re-assess and reset. 

15 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yes. This is exactly my point. He owns the party now, but I contend if he gets his ass kicked that all goes away. 

Ivanka will retreat after the election and leave a snail trail back to New York City. But, Donald, Jr. will step into the breach and assume their father's role. His rise from family loser to becoming the rock star of the "Trump Forever" movement has been remarkable. He and Dad are going to spend the next four years fighting like hell to maintain the family death grip on the Republican party. I'm convinced he's a scarier and more formidable version of his father. Greedy and incompetent with a lust for power, and no ability to use it for anything other than personal wealth and gain. He's a more dimwitted version of Donald, but he's just smart enough to know what he doesn't know, can keep his mouth shut and fake contrite when he needs to, doesn't have the self-destruct button or willingness to double-down on the absurd. He'll be the Republican nominee in 2024, and the ability to blow it up entirely if he's not.

 

[4th&Five 41457]

Very cool and very legal. 

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

15 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I've never understood the people who stand in line for hours on election day if they have early voting as an option.  I haven't voted on election day since 2000.

Procrastination is as American as apple pie.

[The Dog 43771]

21 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Politically, Trump is the best thing to have happened to the democratic party in a long time. I don't think that the GOP recovers from Trump anytime soon at national level. 

It took the Republicans exactly one presidential election cycle to recover from Nixon. They went on to win the next three presidential elections in landslides.

The Democrats were in truly awful shape after Bush Sr. was elected (lol Dukakis). Then Clinton and the DLC happened and they have won the popular vote in all but one presidential election since. 

Things can change very quickly. There is opportunity for the Republicans but they need to purge the party of Trump and rebrand. Both parties have a history of doing this so it's something we should expect, but only if Trump loses.

[4th&Five 41457]

 

[Anastasis 23375]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

It took the Republicans exactly one presidential election cycle to recover from Nixon. They went on to win the next three presidential elections in landslides.

The Democrats were in truly awful shape after Bush Sr. was elected (lol Dukakis). Then Clinton and the DLC happened and they have won the popular vote in all but one presidential election since. 

Things can change very quickly. There is opportunity for the Republicans but they need to purge the party of Trump and rebrand. Both parties have a history of doing this so it's something we should expect, but only if Trump loses.

Fair points all. 

[lemonlime 5503]

18 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

 

 

I'm equally concerned that half of all Democrats polled are planning on voting by mail with all the nonsense going on with the USPS.  I'd given up on that idea a while ago.  

Yeah, it's concerning.  It may, in part, reflect that CA, WA, OR, NJ, DC, CO, NV, and VT (and UT) are holding the 2020 election entirely by vote by mail.  I'm also not sure if the questions ask reflect that voters might be taking their ballots to drop boxes.  I'm in NJ, and there will be drop boxes in every town that you can drop your ballot off in, instead of using the postal service. Myself, and just about everyone I know, plans on using the drop boxes.

[Pig Bellmont 8679]

8 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Very cool and very legal. 

 

This strategy failed so badly that post DNC convention Trump is claiming on TV and Twitter that Biden is taking some kind of enhancing drug. 

[SydneyCarton 47809]

1 hour ago, Bookman said:

2018 was not typical. Voter turnout was huge.

*Voter turnout for one side of the aisle was huge. Now we're gonna see both sides empty. 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

This strategy failed so badly that post DNC convention Trump is claiming on TV and Twitter that Biden is taking some kind of enhancing drug. 

Lol, that was wild.  Is he still calling for drug testing before the debates?

[Pig Bellmont 8679]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Lol, that was wild.  Is he still calling for drug testing before the debates?

Yes, in an interview with Laura Ingraham. Trump said he wanted drug tests because Biden was taking some kind of enhancement. Ingraham couldn’t even hold her skepticism and asked, “like athletes?”

[lemonlime 5503]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Lol, that was wild.  Is he still calling for drug testing before the debates?

Yes.  Trump confirmed for us all that trump is taking Aricept

[Bookman 4610]

Donald Trump is going to turn Texas blue. Then what power will Republicans have?

Republicans have shot themselves in the foot by refusing to acknowledge, much less address, real issues that Americans have had for the last 20 years.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

People should go to jail for this shit. Seriously. I don't know what laws or how (probably none) are being broken, but attacks against the spirit of our democratic system need to be fucking disallowed. 

[jimmyjazz 45513]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

I think if half the country were in his death cult, Republicans would’ve at least held serve in 2018.

I agree.  There was a clear threat of impending impeachment if the House flipped in 2018, and Trump's base failed to stop that from happening.  I don't think the numbers are there, barring vote fraud by or perhaps apathy on the part of the left.  This seems like an odd year for apathy.

[Anastasis 23375]

15 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Yes.  Trump confirmed for us all that trump is taking Aricept

Put my money on modafinil. 

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

34 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Ivanka will retreat after the election and leave a snail trail back to New York City. But, Donald, Jr. will step into the breach and assume their father's role. His rise from family loser to becoming the rock star of the "Trump Forever" movement has been remarkable. He and Dad are going to spend the next four years fighting like hell to maintain the family death grip on the Republican party. I'm convinced he's a scarier and more formidable version of his father. Greedy and incompetent with a lust for power, and no ability to use it for anything other than personal wealth and gain. He's a more dimwitted version of Donald, but he's just smart enough to know what he doesn't know, can keep his mouth shut and fake contrite when he needs to, doesn't have the self-destruct button or willingness to double-down on the absurd. He'll be the Republican nominee in 2024, and the ability to blow it up entirely if he's not.

 

Not if the Donald gets his ass kicked. That’s the only thing bad for his brand. 

[Ghost of LL 15348]

2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

 

And here's something that nobody is talking about.  Historically, the presidential vote has very closely mirrored the congressional generic ballot.  And that congressional generic ballot hasn't changed hardly at all this year--it shows Democrats up 7-9 points.

19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

It took the Republicans exactly one presidential election cycle to recover from Nixon. They went on to win the next three presidential elections in landslides.

The Democrats were in truly awful shape after Bush Sr. was elected (lol Dukakis). Then Clinton and the DLC happened and they have won the popular vote in all but one presidential election since. 

Things can change very quickly. There is opportunity for the Republicans but they need to purge the party of Trump and rebrand. Both parties have a history of doing this so it's something we should expect, but only if Trump loses.

Counterpoint: after the Civil War, Democrats elected exactly two presidents in the 64 years between 1868 and 1932--and one of those (Woodrow Wilson) was under the very unique circumstances in which the Republican Party split itself between Roosevelt and Taft.  That's two generations that the Democrats were in the wilderness because they were (fairly) seen as the party of treason and disunion.

And then the Republicans blew it.  After Hoover, Democrats held the presidency for 36 years, from 1932 to 1968--with the exception of the election of a war hero--because Republicans had so completely fucked up the response to the Depression.

And then Democrats blew it.  Vietnam and everything else caused the Republicans to regain power.  In the 24 years from 1968 to 1992, Republicans held the presidency continuously with the exception of the Carter presidency, which was a direct result of Watergate (and even so, Carter only barely won).

Viewed in the larger arc, it is normal in America for parties to be out of power for an entire generation based on major events in the country's history.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not if the Donald gets his ass kicked. That’s the only thing bad for his brand. 

That's not even bad for his brand. He's had his ass kicked in business like a dozen times. In this instance, he'll say I told you the election was rigged, I'm the last American Hero who fought for Democracy. Brand restored. 

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

That's not even bad for his brand. He's had his ass kicked in business like a dozen times. In this instance, he'll say I told you the election was rigged, I'm the last American Hero who fought for Democracy. Brand restored. 

That’s the counterpoint. I hope I’m right and you are wrong. Right now we are all guessing. 

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

17 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And here's something that nobody is talking about.  Historically, the presidential vote has very closely mirrored the congressional generic ballot.  And that congressional generic ballot hasn't changed hardly at all this year--it shows Democrats up 7-9 points.

Counterpoint: after the Civil War, Democrats elected exactly two presidents in the 64 years between 1868 and 1932--and one of those (Woodrow Wilson) was under the very unique circumstances in which the Republican Party split itself between Roosevelt and Taft.  That's two generations that the Democrats were in the wilderness because they were (fairly) seen as the party of treason and disunion.

And then the Republicans blew it.  After Hoover, Democrats held the presidency for 36 years, from 1932 to 1968--with the exception of the election of a war hero--because Republicans had so completely fucked up the response to the Depression.

And then Democrats blew it.  Vietnam and everything else caused the Republicans to regain power.  In the 24 years from 1968 to 1992, Republicans held the presidency continuously with the exception of the Carter presidency, which was a direct result of Watergate (and even so, Carter only barely won).

Viewed in the larger arc, it is normal in America for parties to be out of power for an entire generation based on major events in the country's history.

And this is my guess as to what’s going to happen. But I don’t think the GOP will be out of power due to fealty to Trump, I think it’s being on the wrong side of demographics. They will have to work hard to put together a different coalition. 
my personal dream is for that to happen by splitting the monolithic black vote and welcoming 30-70% of black people onboard that self ID as conservative or moderate or something other than liberal, but for that to happen they have to get beyond being the party of racists and bigots, which seems likely to take at least a generation. W was doing good work and making a start there, but it’s been fucked up since then, obviously. 
Maybe it’s a different group they peel off, but they are on the bad end of a demographic time bomb, and I think the national elections are probably the Dems to lose for the foreseeable future, until the coalitions are reworked. 
Also- you could extend that to 2008 and say either moderate that ran on “the era of big government is over” if you wanted to amplify that point. Obama was the first transition point to someone that wasn’t claiming to carry the mantle of small government quasi conservative principles in a lot of ways. 
I think you are correct that liberalism is likely ascendant for the next generation plus. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[gmr548 16463]

 And I would expect turn out to be bigger this year. Arguments for Trump winning are
50% of the country is part of his death cult
He’s  going to cheat to win
Even if he loses, he won’t leave.

1.) No. He got 46 percent of the vote and has consistently polled at or below that number in approval and vs Biden. The evidence is irrefutable that the majority of this country does not support Trump. It is preposterous to say otherwise. Geographic distribution helps him but he won't sniff a majority even if he wins fair and square.
2.) Yes. Already is. Probably the thing this administration is most transparent about. The questions now are if they are competent enough to pull it off and if Americans are willing to let it happen.
3.) Nah. He'll go. He'll file suit, bitch on Twitter, and unfortunately some Trumpkin incels like the El Paso and Kenosha shooters will kill people over it. But bunker bitch will leave if Biden is declared the winner.

[Hank Kingsley 20635]

Reputable pollster shows PA is tightening. Focusness. 

 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26232]

57 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

This strategy failed so badly that post DNC convention Trump is claiming on TV and Twitter that Biden is taking some kind of enhancing drug. 

Look what that shit did to Ken Griffey Jr. 

[Pancho 44358]

 

[The Dog 43771]

33 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And here's something that nobody is talking about.  Historically, the presidential vote has very closely mirrored the congressional generic ballot.  And that congressional generic ballot hasn't changed hardly at all this year--it shows Democrats up 7-9 points.

Counterpoint: after the Civil War, Democrats elected exactly two presidents in the 64 years between 1868 and 1932--and one of those (Woodrow Wilson) was under the very unique circumstances in which the Republican Party split itself between Roosevelt and Taft.  That's two generations that the Democrats were in the wilderness because they were (fairly) seen as the party of treason and disunion.

And then the Republicans blew it.  After Hoover, Democrats held the presidency for 36 years, from 1932 to 1968--with the exception of the election of a war hero--because Republicans had so completely fucked up the response to the Depression.

And then Democrats blew it.  Vietnam and everything else caused the Republicans to regain power.  In the 24 years from 1968 to 1992, Republicans held the presidency continuously with the exception of the Carter presidency, which was a direct result of Watergate (and even so, Carter only barely won).

Viewed in the larger arc, it is normal in America for parties to be out of power for an entire generation based on major events in the country's history.

Excellent point as well. The broader point is that we really don't know what is going to happen after the election. 

[Red Five 40593]

8 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

 

No schedule!

 

 

[Fletch 5798]

This fucking guy. He’s like talking to my brother. Just a complete piece of shit

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/514666-number-of-youth-voters-who-say-they-will-definitely-vote-jumps-to-77

As in 2018, the yoots are going to save us.  The clarity that a voter has if they aren't nursing decades old grudges is impressive.

Quote

The number of youth voters in battleground states who said they “definitely” plan to vote in the November elections jumped to 77 percent in August, according to a new poll released by the progressive group NextGen America. 

 

[Mole 4318]

21 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

True. We need to vote by a 1800 number like the old star search type shows. 

I’d love to hear “goodbye and good luck” after voting.

[Biff Tannen 45477]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/514666-number-of-youth-voters-who-say-they-will-definitely-vote-jumps-to-77

As in 2018, the yoots are going to save us.  The clarity that a voter has if they aren't nursing decades old grudges is impressive.

 

This is good.  This is very good.

[Mo Horn 8795]

A lot of posts about polls and trends, and they are all pointing toward Biden. But, I keep reminding myself that with the electoral college things can still be crazy. If the right combination of states comes together then anything can happen. I will happily cast my vote in person during the early voting period, but since I live in Kansas it will mean nothing. Kansas isn't going blue, despite the fact that we recently elected a Democrat as governor. I will take comfort in the fact that I can make a difference in my H of R representative, and will hope the same can be said of the Senate... But I'm doubtful. 

[thepop 4409]

 

is this good

Edited September 2, 2020 by thepop

[Biff Tannen 45477]

6 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

A lot of posts about polls and trends, and they are all pointing toward Biden. But, I keep reminding myself that with the electoral college things can still be crazy. If the right combination of states comes together then anything can happen. I will happily cast my vote in person during the early voting period, but since I live in Kansas it will mean nothing. Kansas isn't going blue, despite the fact that we recently elected a Democrat as governor. I will take comfort in the fact that I can make a difference in my H of R representative, and will hope the same can be said of the Senate... But I'm doubtful. 

Take comfort in knowing you did the right fucking thing, even if it won't make a difference in your state.

[Hank Kingsley 20635]

Good choice IMO

 

[Hank Kingsley 20635]

 

[6th Street 6340]

Can't count on the youts - need to continue to court middle aged whites.

[honolulu horn 6156]

25 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is good.  This is very good.

I hear this election after election. I'll believe it when it happens. 

[honolulu horn 6156]

8 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

is this good

This seems pretty good. 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

The college grad and post grad numbers for dotard are still way too high for my liking.  WTF people?  Also, 29% race of other?  Skewed high on the Asian and Native American polling or what?

Edited September 2, 2020 by Biff Tannen

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

2 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

I hear this election after election. I'll believe it when it happens. 

it did in 2018

Quote

• Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

 

When politics is run like a reality tv show, must-see action 24-7, people are going to be thinking about it.  that's going to drive turnout.

[6th Street 6340]

12 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

is this good

What is this money being spent on? TV ads in swing states? 

[lemonlime 5503]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

The college grad and post grad numbers for dotard are still way too high for my liking.  WTF people?  Also, 29% race of other?  Skewed high on the Asian and Native American polling or what?

That entire poll was post RNC, too.

[thepop 4409]

2 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

What is this money being spent on? TV ads in swing states? 

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1301183209921675264?s=20

 

Edited September 2, 2020 by thepop

[Herpa Derpa 6105]

9 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

What is this money being spent on? TV ads in swing states? 

[6th Street 6340]

You boys seeing Biden ads on TV in Texas?

[Storm the Field 5270]

Another one. IBD wasn't far off the mark in 2016 and consistenly showed a much tighter race than many. Their 9/2/16 poll was Clinton +1 (44-43).

 

Joe Biden holds an eight-point lead over President Trump, who got no perceptible bump from the GOP convention's full-throated appeal to law-and-order voters, the September IBD/TIPP Poll finds.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump 49%-41% among registered voters, after Biden led 48%-41% a month ago and 48%-40% in early July. 

Among independents, 42% back Biden vs. 34% for President Trump.

Meanwhile, Democrats seem to have moved past intraparty squabbles and come home to Biden. He leads Trump 93%-3% among Democrats. Trump is having a slightly harder time holding down GOP votes. He leads among Republicans, 89%-6%.