2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[G650 14277]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

What does early 20th century framework look like?  I may be inclined to agree. 

A fuck ton of guardrails. Pre 17th amendment. Senator candidates picked by party bosses. Committee assignments controlled tyrannically by senior congressmen and Senators. Much closer proportional House representation. No presidential primary.

[Bateshorn 9938]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

No, reliable and also correct. The Electoral College effects would admittedly be only a lovely side effect.

The House is way too small and there is no good argument otherwise. You want DC to be more responsive to the people? Increase the size of the House significantly. If that's what you actually care about and not just Democrats winning instead of Republicans, then you should support an increase in that chamber's size.

As for minority rule, that's never been what I've said. I have said that unchecked majority rule can be a very bad thing and that's undoubtedly true. I've never advocated for minority rule.

Dude, I don’t have a problem with expanding the house. It’s too small, but I also work here.  There is a practical limit to what the house can do to function.  But what do I know? I was told there would be no math. 
 

Your second bit is dumb and defies real world experience.  I mean, virtually every other western democracy manages to make it work. Except us, who explicitly writes minority veto into our government function (the Senate). Thus allowing the minority party to determine the success of the majority party. Denying the electorate the ability to impart a vision of governance because of procedural quirk.  That we’ve waived for tax policy and judges. So the majority can cut or raise taxes and install taxes and judges as it sees fit, but literally can’t do anything else.  But go on with why Wyoming and it’s 500,000 citizens need the same procedural voice as California and it’s 35 million citizens.

Edited September 2, 2020 by Bateshorn

[BradInATX 9208]

MSP is probably the most dynamic metro area in the Midwest, pound for pound. Chicago is just at that critical mass where it gets a shitload of attention but the Twin Cities are not your typical drying Midwest metro.

It's why I'm pretty sure Minnesota is Democratic long term. It's still a pretty solidly Democratic state and that metro area is driving the growth. In a generayion it'll just profile like CO or WA.

Yeah MSP is low key great. Had a multi year project there and was there every 2-3 months. Love it. I need to find a new MSP client so I can go get some fried walleye.

[gmr548 16613]

Add how many ever seats are required, and move to a national multi-party democracy with some form of proportional representation. If y'all want to rewrite the fundamentals of the system, lets go all the way.l 

Expand the house and implement ranked choice voting. Beyond that, it's on the third, fourth, and fifth parties to break through.

[Wulaw Horn 19151]

Gotta say- they love and attack the summer time up there. 

[Aqua Buddha 14608]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

How is expanding the number of seats in the House of Representatives rewriting the fundamentals?  Please show me in the Constitution where it says "The number of Seats in the House of Representatives shall be 435."

The fact is that the number of seats in the House has expanded throughout our history.  What's unusual is that it hasn't been expanded in over 100 years.

If anything, we need to do it to help mid sized and rural areas.  In 20 years you might have a scenario where DFW has 20 House seats by itself while all of West Texas only has one.

[Biff Tannen 45731]

While y’all are discussing Congress realignment all page, the current president just encouraged a crowd of his moron cultists to actively and purposely commit voter fraud. No biggie. 

[jimmyjazz 46126]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

While y’all are discussing Congress realignment all page, the current president just encouraged a crowd of his moron cultists to actively and purposely commit voter fraud. No biggie. 

In a normal world, double ballots would both be tossed out.  I'd take the strategy -- let 'em all vote twice.  As long as we caught half or more if the transgressors, it's a winning play.

 

Problem is, this is not a normal world.  Both votes would get counted, unless for Biden.

[thepop 4409]

 

[Bateshorn 9938]

I don’t want alarm anyone, but it looks like is Biden +7-8.  Basically where it’s been for over a year. 

[Pancho 44987]

 

[mchookem 16381]

i don't understand that^ last part...why would a Clinton state (Minnesota) be on a list of 2016 Trump 'flippable' turf?

Also...Texas before Iowa or Ohio? that's bold 😲

[Irieguy 1059]

24 minutes ago, mchookem said:

i don't understand that^ last part...why would a Clinton state (Minnesota) be on a list of 2016 Trump 'flippable' turf?

Also...Texas before Iowa or Ohio? that's bold 😲

2 separate lists.  He’s saying NE2 is a more likely Biden win than Minnesota even though Trump won NE2 in 2016. Still a high likelihood of Biden winning both. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Irieguy

[gmr548 16613]

i don't understand that^ last part...why would a Clinton state (Minnesota) be on a list of 2016 Trump 'flippable' turf?
Also...Texas before Iowa or Ohio? that's bold 

2 separate lists.  He’s saying NE2 is a more likely Biden win than Minnesota even though Trump won NE2 in 2016. Still a high likelihood of Biden winning both. 

Trump ran exactly even with Romney in Minnesota. Clinton's slim margin is entirely attributable to her underperformance.

Wasserman, in another tweet, mentioned that NE02 > MN to him strictly because of the amount of non college educated white voters in both. Basically using that as a proxy for Trump support. Not too far off in general but when it comes to MN it's cimpletely ignoring the state's voting behavior in 2016 and 2018.

GOP, Trump or otherwise, has not done better than 44-45 percent there. That's been their ceiling. That's not a winning number.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Wow!  What a busy day in the presidential thread. 
 

to sum it up...... looks like a great day / week for Biden. The state polls were great, especially the ones from Fox News. The general polls haven’t budged at all.  The combination of the pessimistic folks on here being the loudest ones, Trump dominating the air waves / news cycle last week, and his hate convention had me holding my breath. 
 

I was legitimately worried about a MAGA bounce. Was I expecting it? No, but it was possible. We need Biden to get thru these visits with minimal gaffes and obviously avoid the virus.

hopefully Trump can’t budge the polling until his next opportunity which will probably be the end of September debate.

 

don’t get complacent! Tell everyone you know who sympathizes with the Democrats and lives in Texas to VOTE!  Will Biden win Texas? Probably not, but I want to narrow up the margin as much as I can.  I want dan Patrick, Ted Cruz, and indictment Paxton to shit themselves when they see the numbers and wonder out loud if they can get re-elected again. These small minded idiots have no business representing a big state like Texas. What a mismatch! They should represent fucking Wyoming.

Edited September 3, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Voldemort86 2259]

Polling drought over

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/02/joe-biden-post-dnc-polls-408087
 

looks like no bounce for the MAGA dumb fucks.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Also... looking at Nate silvers tweet earlier.  
 

it seems like the magic number in the popular vote for Biden is +4.  His victory chance would be about 70%?  Shouldn’t be hard to do. Didn’t Clinton win the popular vote by 2.5%?

 

[Guest Lobo]

I'm all for new and different parties as an alternative to our bullshit system now.  But for this particular cycle, we need to remember that fully 7 million Americans voted for somebody not named Trump or Clinton in 2016.  That really does change the popular vote landscape discussion if you realize how those people would have voted had there only been those two choices.  EC probably stays about the same, but popular vote discussion becomes quite different.  

Seven million people showed up to the polls and didn't give a flying fuck about Clinton or Trump.  almost 5%.  That was the most serious shift since Perot or Anderson.  

All that to say, 7 million people will not be voting third party or independent this time around.  I bet it doesn't break 2 million, or even close.  And between 80-90% of those 7 million voters were NOT first time voters (except those who had just become eligible to vote by law).  So that means they are very likely to still be civically engaged and will vote again in 2020.  I would think at least 5-6 million of them would want to vote for anybody who is NOT Trump.  Aside from typical Democrat voter turnout talking points, I would think ensuring that this 5-6mm bloc still continues to vote as they have proven they do, but to vote for Biden would drastically change the popular vote landscape.  It will absolutely be the difference between a tight, court contentious win by Biden, and a clear landslide that keeps Trump from validly whining about it.  But nope, somehow the Democrats continue to alienate the Johnson and McMullin voters, even the Green Party voters somehow.  Still blaming them for 2016, instead of realizing..."Hey, there's 7 million proven voters...let's get 5-6mm of them locked down for Biden and run away with this thing."  But nope, still shitting on us after all these years. 

[royiv 9351]

15 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

More recently, companies will be switching to work from home models (hopefully) and will allow people to live wherever they want rather than crowding into cities.

Reliable broadband doesn't exist in rural America.

[SydneyCarton 48169]

31 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm all for new and different parties as an alternative to our bullshit system now.  But for this particular cycle, we need to remember that fully 7 million Americans voted for somebody not named Trump or Clinton in 2016.  That really does change the popular vote landscape discussion if you realize how those people would have voted had there only been those two choices.  EC probably stays about the same, but popular vote discussion becomes quite different.  

Seven million people showed up to the polls and didn't give a flying fuck about Clinton or Trump.  almost 5%.  That was the most serious shift since Perot or Anderson.  

All that to say, 7 million people will not be voting third party or independent this time around.  I bet it doesn't break 2 million, or even close.  And between 80-90% of those 7 million voters were NOT first time voters (except those who had just become eligible to vote by law).  So that means they are very likely to still be civically engaged and will vote again in 2020.  I would think at least 5-6 million of them would want to vote for anybody who is NOT Trump.  Aside from typical Democrat voter turnout talking points, I would think ensuring that this 5-6mm bloc still continues to vote as they have proven they do, but to vote for Biden would drastically change the popular vote landscape.  It will absolutely be the difference between a tight, court contentious win by Biden, and a clear landslide that keeps Trump from validly whining about it.  But nope, somehow the Democrats continue to alienate the Johnson and McMullin voters, even the Green Party voters somehow.  Still blaming them for 2016, instead of realizing..."Hey, there's 7 million proven voters...let's get 5-6mm of them locked down for Biden and run away with this thing."  But nope, still shitting on us after all these years. 

Honest question here, how are the democrats alienating the 3rd party guys from 2016?

[Guest Lobo]

Enough Democrat voters still shit on Johnson/McMullin/Stein voters after all this time, blaming them for Trump to begin with. 

Anyway, just an early morning rant.  What I'd like to see more of is somebody, somewhere paying some modicum of address to those 7 million people and how you keep them engaged, but to vote for Biden.  We're hand-wringing over turning out a couple of million people who've never voted before over decades.  But there's 7 million proven voters just waiting to be allured.  My gut says at least 5mm of them would break for Biden, with no viable alternatives this time around.  But I'm just not seeing/hearing/reading anything to that effect.  It's troubling.  Turn 5mm of those folks to Biden voters, with his already popular vote edge, and there's no conceivable EC map that Trump could possibly hold onto.  

We know there's a swath of Republican voters going for Biden this time around (RVAT, Lincoln, et. al. have proven that).  We know the Democrats are trying to turn up turnout in some key areas with their same tired tropes and cliches.  But I would content directly addressing Johnson/McMullin/Stein voters to stay active and participate...that could do wonders.  Most don't like Trump, but most also don't really give a shit if Biden ends up progressive enough for Warren or Bernie lovers.  They just want Trump gone, but I don't know that they're passionate enough about that wish to remove him that they'll still turn out for Biden.  Again, nobody is talking to them directly.  That's a problem.  Not an insurmountable one, but an issue nonetheless.  It's 7 million people.  I'm not just talking about 6 libertarians at an ultimate frisbee tournament trying to legalize weed.  7 million proven voters and it seems like the DNC doesn't acknowledge they exist.  Lincoln and RVAT are talking to them, but not the DNC.  That's weird to me. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Lobo

[Bateshorn 9938]

Everyone seems to forget that Maine has ranked choice voting.  That’s how it has a democratic rep.

[GhostOfTomJoad 9351]

So Trump encouraged rally attendees in North Carolina to vote twice -by mail and in person- in order to "test their system." Other than a sitting POTUS telling citizens to commit a felony, what else is wrong with this picture?

This is just another calculated step to overwhelm the election precincts, delay the tabulation and ultimately destroy any confidence in the legitimacy of the election. How many MAGAts and Qanon nuts are going to spread this message of "Vote twice, it's your patriotic duty"?

We're fucked.

[SydneyCarton 48169]

My biggest issue, and that is saying a fuck ton, is how often this guy shows how he views America and Americans and no one sees it. “Their system.” It’s the American system. You’re an American. It’s YOUR system. Donald against America. It’s there casually for everyone to see, he does it all the time, but they don’t see. That’s why we’re fucked. 

[SydneyCarton 48169]

My biggest issue, and that is saying a fuck ton, is how often this guy shows how he views America and Americans and no one sees it. “Their system.” It’s the American system. You’re an American. It’s YOUR system. Donald against America. It’s there casually for everyone to see, he does it all the time, but they don’t see. That’s why we’re fucked. 

[StassneyHorn 6636]

1 hour ago, royiv said:

Reliable broadband doesn't exist in rural America.

That’d be a factor in their decision making yea. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

52 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

So Trump encouraged rally attendees in North Carolina to vote twice -by mail and in person- in order to "test their system." Other than a sitting POTUS telling citizens to commit a felony, what else is wrong with this picture?

This is just another calculated step to overwhelm the election precincts, delay the tabulation and ultimately destroy any confidence in the legitimacy of the election. How many MAGAts and Qanon nuts are going to spread this message of "Vote twice, it's your patriotic duty"?

We're fucked.

I generally don’t have much respect for or view highly the intelligence of your average trump voter, but I’d like to think that the people of North Carolina don’t want to get a felony and risk going to prison for this president.

[Biff Tannen 45731]

2 hours ago, royiv said:

Reliable broadband doesn't exist in rural America.

I can attest to this.  Recently I had to study this for my job and it's astounding how few places outside of metro areas have access.  Most can get some form of satellite internet, but that is shitty and unreliable.  I'm hoping SpaceX's Starlink system will help solve this.

[Biff Tannen 45731]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

My biggest issue, and that is saying a fuck ton, is how often this guy shows how he views America and Americans and no one sees it. “Their system.” It’s the American system. You’re an American. It’s YOUR system. Donald against America. It’s there casually for everyone to see, he does it all the time, but they don’t see. That’s why we’re fucked. 

 

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

My biggest issue, and that is saying a fuck ton, is how often this guy shows how he views America and Americans and no one sees it. “Their system.” It’s the American system. You’re an American. It’s YOUR system. Donald against America. It’s there casually for everyone to see, he does it all the time, but they don’t see. That’s why we’re fucked. 

Posted twice?  ISWYDT

[gmr548 16613]

Biden has a trillion plus dollar climate plan. GND didn't come from Republicans. Given that's the Green Party's core reason for existance, hard to say Democrars are alienating them with a straight face.

How would you suggest Democrats court Johnson voters beyond what they're already doing? A lot of complaining there but no actual solution. Major Democratic goals like universal healthcare, increased public investment in higher ed, and climate response are antithetical to the Libertarian Party's platform. Democrats aren't going to ditch these things for a few third party voters.

The common ground of course would be disdain for the corruption and authoritarianism of Trump and his cronies. Biden's campaign has honestly focused much more on remedy of the latter, which would seem to be the better approach to getting Johnson voters than, say, a public option for Medicare. So I'm not sure what else he's supposed to do on that front?

[The Dog 44138]

1 hour ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

So Trump encouraged rally attendees in North Carolina to vote twice -by mail and in person- in order to "test their system." Other than a sitting POTUS telling citizens to commit a felony, what else is wrong with this picture?

This is just another calculated step to overwhelm the election precincts, delay the tabulation and ultimately destroy any confidence in the legitimacy of the election. How many MAGAts and Qanon nuts are going to spread this message of "Vote twice, it's your patriotic duty"?

We're fucked.

Am I mistaken but don't duplicate votes get thrown out?

So Trump is basically telling his supporters to make their own votes invalid, therefore putting his chances of winning at risk.

[Fletch 5800]

A hardcore right wing trumper friend of mine(he actually believes W and Cheney were in on 9/11) thinks trump is gonna get 10-15% of EACH the African American vote, Hispanic vote and Muslim vote. Fucking each. Upped the bet to $100 and gave him 2-1 odds. How someone can be that out of touch, I’ll never know but here we are. 

[gmr548 16613]

A hardcore right wing trumper friend of mine(he actually believes W and Cheney were in on 9/11) thinks trump is gonna get 10-15% of EACH the African American vote, Hispanic vote and Muslim vote. Fucking each. Upped the bet to $100 and gave him 2-1 odds. How someone can be that out of touch, I’ll never know but here we are. 

He probably will get 15 percent of the Hispanic vote. Depending on the source he got 15-30 percent in 2016. Lol at the other two.

 

Also your friend will cry fake news and won't pay up.

 

[Biff Tannen 45731]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Am I mistaken but don't duplicate votes get thrown out?

So Trump is basically telling his supporters to make their own votes invalid, therefore putting his chances of winning at risk.

It's NC though.  Not exactly the best track record of free and fair elections.

[The Dog 44138]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The common ground of course would be disdain for the corruption and authoritarianism of Trump and his cronies. Biden's campaign has honestly focused much more on remedy of the latter, which would seem to be the better approach to getting Johnson voters than, say, a public option for Medicare. So I'm not sure what else he's supposed to do on that front?

This is the correct answer. And this Johnson voter thinks he's doing a pretty good job at doing just this (so far).

[The Dog 44138]

8 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

It's NC though.  Not exactly the best track record of free and fair elections.

It's a computer. The code looks for dupes and throws them out. 

Any risk to that isn't unique to NC.

And the NC Secretary of State is a Democrat. She's probably laughing her ass off at that quote.

I mean by suggesting this Trump is suppressing his own vote!

Edited September 3, 2020 by The Dog

[Biff Tannen 45731]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

It's a computer. The code looks for dupes and throws them out. 

Any risk to that isn't unique to NC.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, I think Trump will easily carry 15-20% of the Latino vote.  I have no fucking idea why, but he'll get that much.  He'll go about 5% on African American.  Not really sure of the significance of 10% of the Muslim vote, considering they are less than 1% of the U.S. population makes any difference, but sure---let 'em have it.  Trumpers would also do well to remember that there are more Hindus in the U.S. than Muslims.  More Buddhists in the U.S. than Muslims.  And More Jews in the U.S. than Muslims.  And he ain't touching 15% of any of those groups (he'll probably get close with Jews though).  Not because of their religion or color or country of origin, but people of those four big faiths (Buddhist, Islam, Hindi, Judaic)...when it comes to those folks in the U.S.---like it or not, they tend to be more highly educated than the average White/Latino/Black American.  Educated people are less likely to vote for Trump no matter what other factors are at play. 

Stupid people vote for Trump regardless of ethnicity or faith.  That's just basic maths and rudimentary irony.  

[gmr548 16613]

It's NC though.  Not exactly the best track record of free and fair elections.

Democrats control the governorship, state board of elections, and the supreme court. There will be localized GOP cheating for sure, as the NC GOP pioneered that shit, but the statewide stuff we're used to from them isn't happening.

 

[Fozzz 152]

Huge endorsement from the guy who poisoned Flint's water which disabled a bunch of children.  Big time get for sleepy joe.

 

[GW Hayduke 1953]

What the Biden campaign needs to ensure a victory.

 

[GhostOfTomJoad 9351]

It's a computer. The code looks for dupes and throws them out. 
Any risk to that isn't unique to NC.
And the NC Secretary of State is a Democrat. She's probably laughing her ass off at that quote.
I mean by suggesting this Trump is suppressing his own vote!

And what Trump will claim that his voters were unfairly targeted & thrown out so ALL votes in NC are invalid & should be thrown out.

Sow discourse & controversy. Shit on the ceiling. Make anything resembling a peaceful transfer of power impossible. So he alone wins.

[TXSG8R 3362]

3 hours ago, royiv said:

Reliable broadband doesn't exist in most of rural America.

FIFY

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

13 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Huge endorsement from the guy who poisoned Flint's water which disabled a bunch of children.  Big time get for sleepy joe.

 

the constant list making of good GOP and bad GOP must be exhausting.

 

challenge: link to one post where you faulted him for flint's water previously.  it's not as though it isn't painfully obvious that all good or bad means is protrump or antitrump.  its only every third post from brisket, yet you still do it.

[Bruh Man 3160]

14 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the constant list making of good GOP and bad GOP must be exhausting.

 

challenge: link to one post where you faulted him for flint's water previously.  it's not as though it isn't painfully obvious that all good or bad means is protrump or antitrump.  its only every third post from brisket, yet you still do it.

He fucked up Flint dude. Fuck him. 

[Gatorubet 30305]

I generally don’t have much respect for or view highly the intelligence of your average trump voter, but I’d like to think that the people of North Carolina don’t want to get a felony and risk going to prison for this president.

Even to own the lib-tards???

[tantric superman 4667]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

How would you suggest Democrats court Johnson voters beyond what they're already doing?

I think the only thing Biden/Harris needs to do in terms of anyone to the right of Green Party/Progs is to get a bit more specific on a "we like good cops we want to get rid of bad cops/back the blue" kind of message.  I think they need to acknowledge that police abuse/security issues are not easy to solve, and that extremists on both sides won't solve the problem, but that Dems will try.  I think they need to go so far as to say something like "some of you haven't gotten the message that we value and want to support good cops and we can solve this issue better than the Repubs can".  

Other than that, don't be stupid.

[Fozzz 152]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the constant list making of good GOP and bad GOP must be exhausting.

 

challenge: link to one post where you faulted him for flint's water previously.  it's not as though it isn't painfully obvious that all good or bad means is protrump or antitrump.  its only every third post from brisket, yet you still do it.

Damn you got me. I thought it was bad ass that he was making all those poors drink lead until he endorsed Biden. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Fozzz

[David Dennison 18946]

1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

Huge endorsement from the guy who poisoned Flint's water which disabled a bunch of children.  Big time get for sleepy joe.

 

This might actually help Trump in Michigan.

[sasquatch69 603]