2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[pyrohornIII 4801]

 

On 8/30/2020 at 6:36 AM, Brandywine said:

I went to the CNN homepage and there were 11 articles on Trump in some form. 1, maybe, on Biden/Harris. This is going to be 2016 all over again. Granted most of Trump’s articles were not positive but still that gets his name out there because most people don’t read the articles. They just see his name over and over. 

They see his name over and over again because he keeps doing shady stuff to deflect from the attention brought on by the last shady stuff.  I would venture to guess all 11 of those articles were not flattering for His Moronic Trumpness.  But any press is better than no press.  Always been his motto.  

 

[David Dennison 18608]

12 minutes ago, sasquatch69 said:

 

We are going to long for the halcyon days of the 2000 election. 

[pyrohornIII 4801]

Pancho and I both broached the subject of those republicans out there who are talking Trump in public, but are not voting for him.  I know a couple well who are like this.  Both retired teachers, she is now works at a local establishment and is afraid she would lose her position if it became known she was not voting for Trump.   I also know several wives who will cancel their husband's votes, but won't speak up to maintain family harmony.

Now whether there are enough of them out there to make a serious difference or not, I don't really know.  But I like the strategy of continuing to put it out there.  The message there are closet defectors out there will surely eventually draw the ire of Trump, which will cause them to spend more on keeping their base together.  At the same time that message is getting out that it's ok to not vote for him.  That's between you and your god.  No one need know.   

The DNC is pushing this, and daily you see more republicans endorsing Biden.  We saw it with Kasich and Powell.   

While the movement won't be large enough to turn the tide, it still can have significant sway in certain areas.  I say keep pushing it, don't disparage the message, but embrace it.   It's time to fling some shit back and try to chip away at the base.  

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/don-winslow-open-letter-republicans-trump_n_5f4c84e1c5b697186e37fa71

Quote

 

 

[Ghost of LL 15348]

24 minutes ago, sasquatch69 said:

 

I'm going to push back a little bit on this, because it has basically become conventional wisdom.

The networks have a huge role in setting the narrative of an election.  Even though they have incomplete information, their calls and assessments enter the popular consciousness and frame the election forever after.  In 2018, the early narrative was that there wasn't much of a "blue wave."  As it turned out, the Democrats won 40 seats.  And most notoriously in 2000, the early call of Florida for Gore led to a lot of the consternation that followed.

In those cases, the issue wasn't with early votes or mail-in ballots.  It was with counting the Election Day votes.

The real benefit of mail-in votes is that they are really easy to exit poll.  You can get a list of people from whom ballots have been received and then poll and random sample.  So even without those ballots having been received/counted, the networks are going to have a really good picture on Election Night about how those votes are going to go.

So what you're going to see is a bunch of John King or Steve Kornacki in front of the big board saying, "yes, Trump currently has the lead but there are too many votes still uncounted and we expect those to shift the race to Biden."  They're going to out-and-out tell you that Biden is going to win once all the votes are counted.

And so Trump can go out there and declare victory.  But no network/wire is going to call it for him.  They may even call it for Biden on Election Night.  And those election calls are what sets the expectation for the public--not what dumbfuck Trump says.

[ryskey 447]

34 minutes ago, sasquatch69 said:

 

Does anyone these numbers broken out for each state?  Specifically for swing states?  There are probably entire states (California?) that will require voting by mail, and that skews the numbers.  

[The Dog 43771]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm going to push back a little bit on this, because it has basically become conventional wisdom.

The networks have a huge role in setting the narrative of an election.  Even though they have incomplete information, their calls and assessments enter the popular consciousness and frame the election forever after.  In 2018, the early narrative was that there wasn't much of a "blue wave."  As it turned out, the Democrats won 40 seats.  And most notoriously in 2000, the early call of Florida for Gore led to a lot of the consternation that followed.

In those cases, the issue wasn't with early votes or mail-in ballots.  It was with counting the Election Day votes.

The real benefit of mail-in votes is that they are really easy to exit poll.  You can get a list of people from whom ballots have been received and then poll and random sample.  So even without those ballots having been received/counted, the networks are going to have a really good picture on Election Night about how those votes are going to go.

So what you're going to see is a bunch of John King or Steve Kornacki in front of the big board saying, "yes, Trump currently has the lead but there are too many votes still uncounted and we expect those to shift the race to Biden."  They're going to out-and-out tell you that Biden is going to win once all the votes are counted.

And so Trump can go out there and declare victory.  But no network/wire is going to call it for him.  They may even call it for Biden on Election Night.  And those election calls are what sets the expectation for the public--not what dumbfuck Trump says.

Great take - I've been wondering how exit polling worked with mail in ballots.

As for logistics of mail in ballots, this site gives an idea when ballots can be processed and/or counted. A BIG reason NY was a clusterfuck is because they don't do anything with the ballots until election day, whereas most states "tee up" or even start counting them prior to election day (but don't release any results):

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

[Fletch 5798]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

He probably will get 15 percent of the Hispanic vote. Depending on the source he got 15-30 percent in 2016. Lol at the other two.

 

Also your friend will cry fake news and won't pay up.

 

Dude. He put Mexican children in cages and separated them from their parents. I play baseball with some life long friends and he and his family and all his friends hate his fucking ass. He’s not getting 15% from Hispanics 

[Ghost of LL 15348]

37 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Great take - I've been wondering how exit polling worked with mail in ballots.

As for logistics of mail in ballots, this site gives an idea when ballots can be processed and/or counted. A BIG reason NY was a clusterfuck is because they don't do anything with the ballots until election day, whereas most states "tee up" or even start counting them prior to election day (but don't release any results):

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

And if, on Election Night, New York is showing Trump winning (because so many mail-in ballots haven't been counted) and Texas has Trump very close (because mail-in voting is so limited), does anybody think the networks are going to roll with the narrative that there has been a major shift in politics and New York is now more Republican than Texas?

Of course not.

They're going to say that the count in New York is slow, but we know it's going for Biden, and that Texas indicates that Biden is going to have a very good night.

And that, by the way, is why I have been advocating for Biden to spend more time/money on Texas.

[Aqua Buddha 14489]

39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Great take - I've been wondering how exit polling worked with mail in ballots.

As for logistics of mail in ballots, this site gives an idea when ballots can be processed and/or counted. A BIG reason NY was a clusterfuck is because they don't do anything with the ballots until election day, whereas most states "tee up" or even start counting them prior to election day (but don't release any results):

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

Also, the mail in votes will likely be all counted by 2-3 days after Election Day so the idea that this is going to be drawn out is a bit of a Trump fantasy.  In the AZ Senate race, they were essentially tied election night but Synema won the absentees and mail ins in a landslide and within two days it was over.

[jimmyjazz 45513]

8 minutes ago, Fletch said:

Dude. He put Mexican children in cages and separated them from their parents. I play baseball with some life long friends and he and his family and all his friends hate his fucking ass. He’s not getting 15% from Hispanics 

As of two weeks ago, Biden is polling +9.5% over Trump in Texas with Hispanic registered voters.  Let that sink in.  In mid-July, national polls for Biden ranged from 45% to 64% of the Latino vote.

I can only assume part of that lack of enthusiasm is related to the abortion issue with Catholics, but that seems a stretch.  Biden just isn't very engaging in that community.

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, sasquatch69 said:

 

I keep seeing shit like this and just have to wonder why it hasn’t been thought through and just seems designed to freak everyone out.
 

There are only about 10 swing states at most so who cares if everyone in California and Oregon votes by mail. You think they’re gonna wait to call those obvious democratic states because some ballots are still in the mail? 

Trump telling his supporters in NC to vote twice is just another example of trump shooting his own dick off. Same thing with his Florida suppress the vote by mail scheme. Both hurt him. He is a fucking idiot. 
 

The only state where votes will be stolen is Georgia and that’s been happening long before trump showed up. If Georgia has to be stolen then trump has lost anyway. Period. 
 

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10134]

14 minutes ago, Fletch said:

Dude. He put Mexican children in cages and separated them from their parents. I play baseball with some life long friends and he and his family and all his friends hate his fucking ass. He’s not getting 15% from Hispanics 

He got 28% last time and he's polling better now than then.  I haven't seen any type of engagement from Biden recently that suggests that's going to change anytime soon.  Hard to imagine, but people actually do vote on policy and not just the figure head.

[JimmyJames 12271]

6 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

He got 28% last time and he's polling better now than then.  I haven't seen any type of engagement from Biden recently that suggests that's going to change anytime soon.  Hard to imagine, but people actually do vote on policy and not just the figure head.

28 percent? Wow. What an accomplishment. That RINO bush got more than 50 percent in Texas when he ran for governor. 

And I’m calling bullshit with your “he’s now polling better than that.” By any metric trump is polling far worse against Biden than he did against Clinton. What has been remarkable is the consistency of it. Trump is going to lose. Deal with it. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by JimmyJames

[MonkeyDoughnut 10134]

2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

28 percent? Wow. What an accomplishment. That RINO bush got more than 50 percent in Texas when he ran for governor. 

And I’m calling bullshit with your “he’s now polling better than that.” By any metric trump is polling far worse against Biden than he did against Clinton. What has been remarkable is the consistency of it. He is going to lose. Deal with it. 

28% was nationally.. for your Texas poll info...

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/2020/08/18/379985/texas-hispanic-voters-slightly-favor-biden-for-president-with-one-fifth-of-latinas-undecided/

Latino voters in Texas slightly favor Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump, according to a new poll by the nonpartisan Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

The poll, which surveyed 846 Texas registered voters, found 48% of polled Latinos said they planned to vote for Joe Biden, while 38% said they would vote for Trump.

 

Jason Villalba, president of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation and former Republican member of the Texas House of Representatives, said Latino support for Trump has grown since 2016.

“Trump in the last cycle ended up getting about 32% of Hispanics and now we're seeing his numbers creep up to 37%, 38% — which is better than both McCain and Romney were able to achieve,” said Villalba.

[Fletch 5798]

19 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

He got 28% last time and he's polling better now than then.  I haven't seen any type of engagement from Biden recently that suggests that's going to change anytime soon.  Hard to imagine, but people actually do vote on policy and not just the figure head.

Dude. Check the polls. Biden may get 300+ electoral votes 

[henrygandorf 29174]

after a week or so of predictit running ~57-47 in biden's favor, now they have it shifted all the way back to 59-44, which it had been hovering around for the past few months.

along with the recent polling, i think it's safe to say that trump didn't get any bump at all from last week's puppet show.

[JimmyJames 12271]

11 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

28% was nationally.. for your Texas poll info...

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/2020/08/18/379985/texas-hispanic-voters-slightly-favor-biden-for-president-with-one-fifth-of-latinas-undecided/

Latino voters in Texas slightly favor Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump, according to a new poll by the nonpartisan Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

The poll, which surveyed 846 Texas registered voters, found 48% of polled Latinos said they planned to vote for Joe Biden, while 38% said they would vote for Trump.

 

Jason Villalba, president of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation and former Republican member of the Texas House of Representatives, said Latino support for Trump has grown since 2016.

“Trump in the last cycle ended up getting about 32% of Hispanics and now we're seeing his numbers creep up to 37%, 38% — which is better than both McCain and Romney were able to achieve,” said Villalba.

If accurate, which I doubt, I guess that will slightly make up for all the white and black support trump has lost in the suburbs like Williamson and tarrant counties and cities, like all of them. 

 

[Brandywine 1311]

41 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And if, on Election Night, New York is showing Trump winning (because so many mail-in ballots haven't been counted) and Texas has Trump very close (because mail-in voting is so limited), does anybody think the networks are going to roll with the narrative that there has been a major shift in politics and New York is now more Republican than Texas?

Of course not.

They're going to say that the count in New York is slow, but we know it's going for Biden, and that Texas indicates that Biden is going to have a very good night.

And that, by the way, is why I have been advocating for Biden to spend more time/money on Texas.

I saw someone talk about this very thing and it’s scary. This could cause the election to be decided by the SC if Trump goes out and declares victory and then loses it a day or two later. He’ll start screaming that the election was rigged, like he said it was going to be, and lawyers will get involved and all hell will break lose. Protests in the streets and so on. Would not surprise me. 

[gmr548 16463]

Dude. He put Mexican children in cages and separated them from their parents. I play baseball with some life long friends and he and his family and all his friends hate his fucking ass. He’s not getting 15% from Hispanics 

Well gee that anecdote about your friend really changes everything!

I didn't say he'd do well, I said he'd hit 15 percent. That'd be historically awful. 15 percent would be an incredibly low number for a GOP presidential candidate, who have historically hit 30-40 percent of the Latino vote. Trump may not have been too far off that 30 percent threshold last time. He definitely got more than 15 percent. There are some really Trumpy latinos in the Mexican border states and Cubans in FL vote reliably GOP. He'll break 15 percent.

[Fletch 5798]

Just now, gmr548 said:

Well gee that anecdote about your friend really changes everything!

I didn't say he'd do well, I said he'd hit 15 percent. That'd be historically awful. 15 percent would be an incredibly low number for a GOP presidential candidate, who have historically hit 30-40 percent of the Latino vote. Trump may not have been too far off that 30 percent threshold last time. He definitely got more than 15 percent. There are some really Trumpy latinos in the Mexican border states and Cubans in FL vote reliably GOP. He'll break 15 percent.

he’s not hitting 15%. 8-10% maybe but no way 15%

[Ghost of LL 15348]

6 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

I saw someone talk about this very thing and it’s scary. This could cause the election to be decided by the SC if Trump goes out and declares victory and then loses it a day or two later. He’ll start screaming that the election was rigged, like he said it was going to be, and lawyers will get involved and all hell will break lose. Protests in the streets and so on. Would not surprise me. 

Trump screaming like a histrionic fool isn't anything new.  Why would SCOTUS get involved with that.

To get a case to SCOTUS, you need to have some legal merit.  Trump screaming on Twitter doesn't get you there.

Honestly--I'm a bit skeptical of the whole scenario.  I'm not saying the possibility isn't there.  It is.  I'm just saying that it is not a certainty as some are indicating.

[The Dog 43771]

4 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

I saw someone talk about this very thing and it’s scary. This could cause the election to be decided by the SC if Trump goes out and declares victory and then loses it a day or two later. He’ll start screaming that the election was rigged, like he said it was going to be, and lawyers will get involved and all hell will break lose. Protests in the streets and so on. Would not surprise me. 

Go read the link I posted. If anything you'll see Biden with HUGE leads in some of these states since they will have already counted the mail-in ballots once the polls close. Those will be released first in many states. Then the precincts report and if those indicate Biden then the election is called in those states. 

The only states that should be of any concern to anyone (regardless of whom you support) are Michigan and of course Florida since they don't do ANYTHING until election day.

[JimmyJames 12271]

6 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

I saw someone talk about this very thing and it’s scary. This could cause the election to be decided by the SC if Trump goes out and declares victory and then loses it a day or two later. He’ll start screaming that the election was rigged, like he said it was going to be, and lawyers will get involved and all hell will break lose. Protests in the streets and so on. Would not surprise me. 

The Trumpkins will cowardly kill a few people, mainly blacks, but otherwise they ain’t gonna do jack shit to change things. 
 

These men are cowards Donny.

And that includes trump himself. They believe in nothing. Osama bin Ladin was dangerous because he believed in what he was doing. Same as hitler. Don’t ever forget that. 

[G650 13990]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Trump screaming like a histrionic fool isn't anything new.  Why would SCOTUS get involved with that.

To get a case to SCOTUS, you need to have some legal merit.  Trump screaming on Twitter doesn't get you there.

Honestly--I'm a bit skeptical of the whole scenario.  I'm not saying the possibility isn't there.  It is.  I'm just saying that it is not a certainty as some are indicating.

Even if it did I honestly think Roberts would throw him over in a second for Biden.

[Pig Bellmont 8679]

Trump needs FL to win, so I don’t understand everyone’s fears that he can declare victory before the mail in votes are counted. We know FL will be a shit show and take days to fully report. Just watch- after Election Day all this shit from Trump will flip. 

[henrygandorf 29174]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Go read the link I posted. If anything you'll see Biden with HUGE leads in some of these states since they will have already counted the mail-in ballots once the polls close. Those will be released first in many states. Then the precincts report and if those indicate Biden then the election is called in those states. 

The only states that should be of any concern to anyone (regardless of whom you support) are Michigan and of course Florida since they don't do ANYTHING until election day.

seemed to be a lot of states that start their counts late.  or at least later than they should.  in light of covid, you'd think they'd be able to accelerate that, but i have no idea how that works state to state.  moving forward (starting in '22) they should all be starting their counts early.  more time to do it right, less pressure to release results, it's a no-brainer.

i have no doubt trump will declare victory on election night, even if he's trailing across the board.  getting the narrative out there that it's going to take some time and we may not have a declared winner on nov 3rd is a good start.

[gmr548 16463]

he’s not hitting 15%. 8-10% maybe but no way 15%

I'd love to be wrong but there's zero evidence or precedent to support what you're saying.

 

As far as the discussion of election night goes, all of this assumes mail in votes are not delayed and are fully counted. There's little doubt Biden wins if every vote counts. You cannot ignore the fact that USPS operations are being altered specifically in order to disqualify ballots. That changes the calculus.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

Different voters.

Every four years, 10MM Americans die.

Presidential voting increases by about 5MM every election. Obama elections threw off smooth trend lines. With the death total, that implies about 10MM actual different presidential voters each year, ignoring individuals' decisions to vote in one and sit out one.

An incumbent year tends to have way fewer third party votes.  1980, 8MM. 1984, 1MM.  2000 4.5MM, 2004, 1.5MM.  2008 and 2012 similar, 3MM.  2016, 7MM. 1992 and 94 had Perot as outliers.  No one seems to be getting Gary Johnson levels of attention this year, so I'd expect a similar drop. Probably 5MM third party voters will now go to Biden/Trump.

A not insignificant 15,000,000 people will probably vote for Trump/Biden that didn't vote for them last time, well over 10%.  It'll be interesting.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

6 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Trump needs FL to win, so I don’t understand everyone’s fears that he can declare victory before the mail in votes are counted. We know FL will be a shit show and take days to fully report. Just watch- after Election Day all this shit from Trump will flip. 

G Morris Whatever said the other day that a Biden FL win implies a 96% chance of a Biden presidential win. 40-something for Trump. So there is a significant chance FL delays won't matter.

[Bruh Man 3160]

52 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

He got 28% last time and he's polling better now than then.  I haven't seen any type of engagement from Biden recently that suggests that's going to change anytime soon.  Hard to imagine, but people actually do vote on policy and not just the figure head.

Lol what policy is that? Please enlighten us. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 minute ago, Bruh Man said:

Lol what policy is that? Please enlighten us. 

Just read the current Republican platform. That’s your policy.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10134]

37 minutes ago, Fletch said:

Dude. Check the polls. Biden may get 300+ electoral votes 

"Dude" what the hell does that have to to with his increased support among Hispanics?

[Guest Lobo]

2 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

"Dude" what the hell does that have to to with his increased support among Hispanics?

Because math is in our blood.  Trump's body's decomposing in my locker!  

[Biff Tannen 45477]

34 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

I saw someone talk about this very thing and it’s scary. This could cause the election to be decided by the SC if Trump goes out and declares victory and then loses it a day or two later. He’ll start screaming that the election was rigged, like he said it was going to be, and lawyers will get involved and all hell will break lose. Protests in the streets and so on. Would not surprise me. 

Oh I fully expect this.  Anything LESS will surprise me.

[jimmyjazz 45513]

32 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

I saw someone talk about this very thing and it’s scary. This could cause the election to be decided by the SC if Trump goes out and declares victory and then loses it a day or two later. He’ll start screaming that the election was rigged, like he said it was going to be, and lawyers will get involved and all hell will break lose. Protests in the streets and so on. Would not surprise me. 

Even the Roberts court isn't so in the bag for Trump that they would overturn results.  Bill Barr is definitely that far in the bag, but he would have no say in the matter.

This isn't "hanging chads".  This is failure to count legitimate votes, and I think it would be a unanimous decision (even Brett, Squi, and Donkey Dong Doug).

[jimmyjazz 45513]

28 minutes ago, Fletch said:

he’s not hitting 15%. 8-10% maybe but no way 15%

Are you paying attention?

[elfenix 34168]

Yeah MSP is low key great. Had a multi year project there and was there every 2-3 months. Love it. I need to find a new MSP client so I can go get some fried walleye.

The Midwest and fried fucking walleye.


Columbus started showing up on food tourist lists in the last couple years. I figured that means it has passed critical mass for hipsters

[Biff Tannen 45477]

30 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Trump screaming like a histrionic fool isn't anything new.  Why would SCOTUS get involved with that.

To get a case to SCOTUS, you need to have some legal merit.  Trump screaming on Twitter doesn't get you there.

Honestly--I'm a bit skeptical of the whole scenario.  I'm not saying the possibility isn't there.  It is.  I'm just saying that it is not a certainty as some are indicating.

 

30 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Go read the link I posted. If anything you'll see Biden with HUGE leads in some of these states since they will have already counted the mail-in ballots once the polls close. Those will be released first in many states. Then the precincts report and if those indicate Biden then the election is called in those states. 

The only states that should be of any concern to anyone (regardless of whom you support) are Michigan and of course Florida since they don't do ANYTHING until election day.

 

25 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Trump needs FL to win, so I don’t understand everyone’s fears that he can declare victory before the mail in votes are counted. We know FL will be a shit show and take days to fully report. Just watch- after Election Day all this shit from Trump will flip. 

Let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet please.  Play like you're behind.

[Fletch 5798]

30 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'd love to be wrong but there's zero evidence or precedent to support what you're saying.

 

As far as the discussion of election night goes, all of this assumes mail in votes are not delayed and are fully counted. There's little doubt Biden wins if every vote counts. You cannot ignore the fact that USPS operations are being altered specifically in order to disqualify ballots. That changes the calculus.

 

Um, the Muslim ban and his not so subtle racism along with caging up kids. Yeah. I’d say those groups are pretty pissed off. Then add in liberal suburban moms and the high school college first time voters.  Everyone is pissed. We’re just living in reality while trumpkins drink bleach 

[Fletch 5798]

15 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Are you paying attention?

Yes. I’m paying attention. What exactly are you asking?

[jimmyjazz 45513]

3 minutes ago, Fletch said:

Yes. I’m paying attention. What exactly are you asking?

Polling is showing Trump pulling WAY over 10% of the Latino vote.  Many of us have pointed this out to you.  You seem to be oblivious to this fact.

Is it possible the polling is off?  Yeah.  I'll trust the polls over Fletch and his baseball friends at this point, though.  You do you.

[Fletch 5798]

That polling has to be wayyy off but we’ll see I guess 

[Storm the Field 5270]

After a tumultuous August that featured both political conventions, 31,000 additional COVID deaths, and an all-new round of protests and riots, the race is.....almost exactly in the same spot as 30 days ago.

RCP National Polling Average: 8/3: 7.4, 9/3: 7.2

538 Biden Win Probability: 8/3: 71%, 9/3 71%

PredictIt Odds: 8/3: 60-42, 9/3: 59-44

[gmr548 16463]

I'm going to push back a little bit on this, because it has basically become conventional wisdom.
The networks have a huge role in setting the narrative of an election.  Even though they have incomplete information, their calls and assessments enter the popular consciousness and frame the election forever after.  In 2018, the early narrative was that there wasn't much of a "blue wave."  As it turned out, the Democrats won 40 seats.  And most notoriously in 2000, the early call of Florida for Gore led to a lot of the consternation that followed.
In those cases, the issue wasn't with early votes or mail-in ballots.  It was with counting the Election Day votes.
The real benefit of mail-in votes is that they are really easy to exit poll.  You can get a list of people from whom ballots have been received and then poll and random sample.  So even without those ballots having been received/counted, the networks are going to have a really good picture on Election Night about how those votes are going to go.
So what you're going to see is a bunch of John King or Steve Kornacki in front of the big board saying, "yes, Trump currently has the lead but there are too many votes still uncounted and we expect those to shift the race to Biden."  They're going to out-and-out tell you that Biden is going to win once all the votes are counted.
And so Trump can go out there and declare victory.  But no network/wire is going to call it for him.  They may even call it for Biden on Election Night.  And those election calls are what sets the expectation for the public--not what dumbfuck Trump says.

I think this is a good take in general but I'm not sure I trust FOX News to behave in good faith at that point. They'd absolutely be airing Trump claims to victory, reporting on all seven instances of fraud, etc.

[kevwun 15595]

Walleye is the best freshwater fish I've had.  It is one of the very few freshwater types where you can't taste the lake or river it came from.

Edited September 3, 2020 by kevwun

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

Walleye is the best freshwater fish I've had.  It is one of the very few freshwater types where you can't taste the lake or river it came from.

Man, you and my uncle are the only people I've ever heard say that.  You don't see it much at all in Texas.  But growing up fishing the midwest/northwoods, I ate it a lot.  It's way down the list for me, but can be good if breaded/panfried properly.  I don't mind it, just never sought it out.  This ain't the forum for it, but would love to know if you've got some good recipes for it so I can do it next time I catch one up north next summer (hopefully).  

[kevwun 15595]

I only get it when we go north to visit my wife's parents so I don't have a recipe.

Edited September 3, 2020 by kevwun

[gmr548 16463]

Um, the Muslim ban and his not so subtle racism along with caging up kids. Yeah. I’d say those groups are pretty pissed off. Then add in liberal suburban moms and the high school college first time voters.  Everyone is pissed. We’re just living in reality while trumpkins drink bleach 

Sure, and none of that is evidence Trump will get less that 15 percent of the Latino vote. It's evidence he's trash and the majority of the country thinks so, but not of that specific metric.

[Jiggy-Z 3428]

3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Man, you and my uncle are the only people I've ever heard say that.  You don't see it much at all in Texas.  But growing up fishing the midwest/northwoods, I ate it a lot.  It's way down the list for me, but can be good if breaded/panfried properly.  I don't mind it, just never sought it out.  This ain't the forum for it, but would love to know if you've got some good recipes for it so I can do it next time I catch one up north next summer (hopefully).  

Walleye has an overrated reputation due to its regional freshwater competition.  I have had it many times as both my ex wife and current wife are from South Dakota(that is another story) and I have traveled to the SD/ Minn/Wisc. tri state area annually for the last 30 years or so. It is still very good and miles better than any bass and not as good as trout.

I have a fishing buddy that I visit here in Austin on occasion and this topic always comes up after a few cocktails.  He swears walleye is better than speckled trout, flounder or pompano, but I think he is also associating it with childhood memories and he is also a Trumper(just to keep it topical), so I am pretty sure he is full of shit. 

I have not had any luck catching walleye up north.  The LMBs are as stupid as the day is long up there though and they love them some saltwater topwaters in the summer as do the northerns.

[4th&Five 41457]

i don't eat a ton of freshwater fish but i love walleye too.  grew up catching it and eating it every summer when visiting my dad's family in south dakota.  could be a nostalgia thing but i love it.