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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Goredho

Goredho 17341

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Tuco said:

To put it a little differently, we are currently averaging two to three 911s a week.  Iraq should be very nervous. 

Iraq is safe.  Trump has made it clear the country he is going to war with to win reelection is the United States.

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I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

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This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18968

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Tuco said:

As loathsome as Trump is, there are legitimate reasons why lower income workers would favor him.  While I disagree with protectionist trade policies I can see why it would be appealing to a guy working in a slowly shrinking factory.  While I disagree with stricter immigration policies, particularly the cruelty which Trump endorses, I can see why a roofer might find it appealing.  

But, while that may demonstrate a political advantage of courting these voters with these policies, I don't think it is a viable platform, long term, for the Republican Party.  It's one thing push a steel tariff.  It's another thing to deal with the consequences - higher construction costs, retaliation by other countries against our ag products, etc..  Long term, I don't see the GOP sticking with a protectionist trade policy.  I think they are also going to get pushed by big business on immigration.  If the low-income workers dream comes true - if wages really increased because of stricter immigration - it means that corporations are paying more.  The Republicans have not been very successful in maintaining a big tent, and it would be really difficult for the GOP to cater to both the low income workers and the wealthy who would be paying them more.  And we know who funds the Party.  

Assuming Trump loses, and I believe he will, and assuming the GOP loses ground in the House, the Senate, and state governments, and I think they will, the Trump model will proven to be a failure.  Certainly both parties will work to court the Trump voter.  But these are not well thought out policies and they do not benefit a majority of people in the country.  It's not just bad policies; it's bad politics. 

This is a first class top notch great post. 

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Mole

Mole 4319

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, formermav43 said:

 

You're actually right that there is a conversation worth having about the way we view our military and how it helps shape American civil religion.

But come on, you're clearly not REALLY interested in that or you wouldn't approach it this way.

There are absolutely unhealthy things about this country’s relationship with its military. There’s the over-the-top hero worship; there’s politicization where criticism of policies or lack of proper respect to the symbols of patriotism is recast as disrespect to the people who serve (see Kap taking a knee); and of course there are the endless and perpetual wars. 
 

There’s a real discussion to be had there, but as you noted, this isn’t what’s happening and isn’t the place. This is profaning the core values of everything we should hope to aspire to.
 

There’s no greater love than to lay down your life for a friend.  It doesn’t say “there’s no greater loser.”
 

Any post-hoc justifications of this is 100% dishonest.

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Ted Lange

Ted Lange 16040

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Fozzz said:

I understand sympathizing with WWI conscripts who had no choice in the matter, but what's wrong with Trump calling McCain a loser?  He wasn't drafted and he committed God knows what atrocities against those poor people.  Honoring that bullshit would be like Germans memorializing veterans of the Condor Legion.  Imagine them getting pissed because someone dishonored the memory of some dipshit who crashed his plane outside of Guernica lmao.

100000% fozz is team QAnon, but too big a pussy admit it here.  What a fucking dork he is

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted

This is a bad sign for the Trumpkin campaign. Why the heck are they leaving the air here?  
 

kanye tried hard to get on the ballot recently and it looks like he will fail. There’s a poll recently with mark Kelly about 15 points ahead of mcstinky. I think the numbers in Arizona for Trump could be worse than people realize.
 

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13406

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

This is a bad sign for the Trumpkin campaign. Why the heck are they leaving the air here?  
 

kanye tried hard to get on the ballot recently and it looks like he will fail. There’s a poll recently with mark Kelly about 15 points ahead of mcstinky. I think the numbers in Arizona for Trump could be worse than people realize.
 

 

In playing around with 270 to Win, losing AZ absolutely hurts Trump but it still leaves him with a path to victory with some combination of MN, WI, MI, and PA assuming he holds onto FL and OH. In the scenario he def needs to win either MI or PA and then add in MN or WI. This is getting into threading the needle strategy.

And it doesn’t mean that AZ is being conceded but leave it alone to see how it looks in a few weeks.

in hindsight, the AZ governor helped to screwed trump over by the McSally appointment. McSally is basically on trumps2020 ticket and she had already been rejected by the AZ voters. It’s only speculation now if someone else had been appointed. 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In playing around with 270 to Win, losing AZ absolutely hurts Trump but it still leaves him with a path to victory with some combination of MN, WI, MI, and PA assuming he holds onto FL and OH. In the scenario he def needs to win either MI or PA and then add in MN or WI. This is getting into threading the needle strategy.

And it doesn’t mean that AZ is being conceded but leave it alone to see how it looks in a few weeks.

in hindsight, the AZ governor helped to screwed trump over by the McSally appointment. McSally is basically on trumps2020 ticket and she had already been rejected by the AZ voters. It’s only speculation now if someone else had been appointed. 

He’s got to have 20 EV from AZ, WI, MN, PA, or MI, and that assumes he wins FL, NC, and OH which are all polling as swing states.  MI seems pretty blue at this point, and MN would be a pretty big upset as well.  If I were Trump, I would kill myself.  But if I were genuinely advising Trump on how to win the election, I would focus almost entirely on winning PA while preparing to challenge the results in WI and AZ if the election were close.  I hope to god Biden’s team is fully prepared to prevent and respond to those challenges.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14501

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

He’s got to have 20 EV from AZ, WI, MN, PA, or MI, and that assumes he wins FL, NC, and OH which are all polling as swing states.  MI seems pretty blue at this point, and MN would be a pretty big upset as well.  If I were Trump, I would kill myself.  But if I were genuinely advising Trump on how to win the election, I would focus almost entirely on winning PA while preparing to challenge the results in WI and AZ if the election were close.  I hope to god Biden’s team is fully prepared to prevent and respond to those challenges.

It helps that the Sec of State in both Sconsin and AZ are Democrats.  North Carolina governor a Dem as well.  FL, GA, and TX will be brazen cheating.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11763

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

He’s got to have 20 EV from AZ, WI, MN, PA, or MI, and that assumes he wins FL, NC, and OH which are all polling as swing states.  MI seems pretty blue at this point, and MN would be a pretty big upset as well.  If I were Trump, I would kill myself.  But if I were genuinely advising Trump on how to win the election, I would focus almost entirely on winning PA while preparing to challenge the results in WI and AZ if the election were close.  I hope to god Biden’s team is fully prepared to prevent and respond to those challenges.

What if they tied?

https://www.270towin.com/maps/eAKrG

 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

Posted
Posted

Total wild ass guess here, but the campaign is holding back $$ because as it gets closer they've got Barr's reveal and will flood the airwaves with that. Barr has been seeding the doubt with voter fraud, and the groundwork was already laid with the Hunter Biden stuff. Truth won't matter, especially that close to the 3rd, but if they launch something like that as an attempt to strategize a Swift Boat against Biden it wouldn't effect folks that are staunchly anti-Trump, but in the swing states who knows.

Quote

Barr has not been quite so frank about the politics behind his probe, but nevertheless seems to be looking to perform a hatchet job on Biden. Speaking to Hannity Thursday, the attorney general teased a forthcoming “development” in the probe he commissioned into Trump’s empty conspiracy theory that he was the victim of a deep state hoax from the Obama administration. He vowed not to do “anything inappropriate before the election,” but also said the John Durham-led investigation would not be “dictated to by this schedule,” leaving open the possibility that he’s gearing up for his own October surprise.

Quote above is from August, Vanity Fair.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18968

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

This is a bad sign for the Trumpkin campaign. Why the heck are they leaving the air here?  
 

kanye tried hard to get on the ballot recently and it looks like he will fail. There’s a poll recently with mark Kelly about 15 points ahead of mcstinky. I think the numbers in Arizona for Trump could be worse than people realize.
 

 

This is what has me absolutely convinced trump has no chance of winning... he isn’t winning Arizona. That state has become leans blue over the last 4 years. Trump isn’t a good enough candidate to win any means blue state in 2020. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18968

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Posted
1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

He’s got to have 20 EV from AZ, WI, MN, PA, or MI, and that assumes he wins FL, NC, and OH which are all polling as swing states.  MI seems pretty blue at this point, and MN would be a pretty big upset as well.  If I were Trump, I would kill myself.  But if I were genuinely advising Trump on how to win the election, I would focus almost entirely on winning PA while preparing to challenge the results in WI and AZ if the election were close.  I hope to god Biden’s team is fully prepared to prevent and respond to those challenges.

Add in NH to his list of possibles. Also has to hold onto Maine and Nebraska CD 1 off electoral votes. 

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10138

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

He’s got to have 20 EV from AZ, WI, MN, PA, or MI, and that assumes he wins FL, NC, and OH which are all polling as swing states.  MI seems pretty blue at this point, and MN would be a pretty big upset as well.  If I were Trump, I would kill myself.  But if I were genuinely advising Trump on how to win the election, I would focus almost entirely on winning PA while preparing to challenge the results in WI and AZ if the election were close.  I hope to god Biden’s team is fully prepared to prevent and respond to those challenges.

MN trending in Trump's favor, looks to be the replacement

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

Posted
Posted

This board loves to be nervous about Minnesota. Every statewide candidate in 2018 received more votes than Hillary Clinton did when she won statewide in a presidential year in 2016. That is absurdly bad.
 

Amy Klobuchar passed 2012 Obama level turnout in 2018 and missed 2008 Obama level by 7k. The Dem voters are still there in the state and will turnout, just need a candidate who does not suck.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45538

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Then the new House in January decides. Each state gets one vote. If the House basically stayed as-is, trump wins.

effectively Trump needs 269 to win, Biden 270.

That's an odd way to say it.  "The House" might call the vote, but in no way do the legislators have elector input.  It's a 50-state vote.  Texas votes "Trump" if they threw their 38 electoral votes to Trump in the original count.

It's completely fucked up, especially since the Senate determines the VP in a similar manner.  In essence, every state has equal power, despite population.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

Posted
Posted (edited)

One tactic Trump might use is to simply stall all the close states to prevent Biden from getting 270 EV by Dec 14.  At that point the House would decide the presidency, but by delegation instead of popular vote.  The current delegation favors Trump 26-23 (PA is tied), so in that scenario Trump would be made President.  Even that is not a guarantee for Trump, as delegations might not go purely along party lines, and the vote doesn’t take place until after the new Congress is in place.  If by some chance the House vote ends in a tie, the Senate then names the VP as President; that scenario also currently favors Trump/Pence, although subject to the same caveats as the House vote.  Ensuring battleground states (NH, PA, AZ, MI, MN, WI) resolve their recounts/issues and submit their EV for Biden timely should definitely be part of Biden’s priorities and planning.  Crazy shit.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Then the new House in January decides. Each state gets one vote. If the House basically stayed as-is, trump wins.

effectively Trump needs 269 to win, Biden 270.

Sadly, Trump doesn’t even need 269.  Trump could win with zero EV, so long as Biden doesn’t get to 270 by Dec 14.

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formermav43

formermav43 4599

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's an odd way to say it.  "The House" might call the vote, but in no way do the legislators have elector input.  It's a 50-state vote.  Texas votes "Trump" if they threw their 38 electoral votes to Trump in the original count.

It's completely fucked up, especially since the Senate determines the VP in a similar manner.  In essence, every state has equal power, despite population.

That isn’t quite right. While each state has one vote, that vote does not depend on the electoral vote. Each state’s House delegation votes for their choice among the top 3 finishers and the winner gets the one vote for that state.

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4805

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Total wild ass guess here, but the campaign is holding back $$ because as it gets closer they've got Barr's reveal and will flood the airwaves with that. Barr has been seeding the doubt with voter fraud, and the groundwork was already laid with the Hunter Biden stuff. Truth won't matter, especially that close to the 3rd, but if they launch something like that as an attempt to strategize a Swift Boat against Biden it wouldn't effect folks that are staunchly anti-Trump, but in the swing states who knows.

Quote above is from August, Vanity Fair.

I read somewhere this morning that Trump is using a bunch of campaign money for legal battles.  I assume for fighting different voting things.  

It wouldn't surprise me if it came out that he has shifted more campaign money into Trump properties and is beginning to do so at a faster clip.  Like he knows he is sunk, and is raiding the company safe.

 

Here's a good article about Barr and his claim of 1,700 fraudulent absentee ballots in Texas.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/09/04/thats-not-what-happened-all-say-prosecutors-after-barr-falsely-claims-man-cast-1700

Quote

'That's Not What Happened at All,' Say Prosecutors After Barr Falsely Claims Man Cast 1,700 Fake Ballots in Texas

"Barr is a shameless liar and most importantly has been one for his entire career," tweeted New York Times columist Jamelle Bouie.

As Attorney General William Barr faced renewed calls for his impeachment after claiming not to know whether it's illegal for a U.S. voter to cast two ballots in a federal election, prosecutors and journalists have caught the nation's top law enforcement officer in a "massive falsehood" about a mail-in ballot fraud case in Texas. 

In his interview with CNN earlier this week, Barr told Wolf Blitzer that prosecutors had indicted a man who collected 1,700 blank ballots and used them to cast a specific vote.

"Elections that have been held with mail have found substantial fraud and coercion," Barr said. "For example, we indicted someone in Texas, 1,700 ballots collected...from people who could vote, he made them out and voted for the person he wanted to. Okay?"

Aside from vastly overstating the prevalence of fraud in vote-by-mail systems which have been used by millions of Americans for decades, Barr appeared to fabricate the facts about the case in Texas, prosecutors who worked on the case told the Washington Post.

"That's not what happened at all," Andy Chatham, who served as assistant district attorney in Dallas County when prosecutors investigated the collection of a small number of blank ballots in 2017, told the newspaper. 

"Unfortunately, it speaks volumes to the credibility of Attorney General Barr when he submits half-truths and alternative facts as clear evidence of voter fraud without having so much as even contacted me or the district attorney's office for an understanding of the events that actually occurred."
—Andy Chatham, former Dallas County prosecutor

Barr suggested the Department of Justice prosecuted a federal case of voter fraud, but he appeared to be referring to a local prosecution involving a City Council election. 

Authorities uncovered 700 ballots on which voters stated that someone named Jose Rodriguez had helped them to prepare them, but the ballots did not favor a particular candidate and the voters confirmed that the votes were accurate. Chatham said investigators were eventually led to a man named Miguel Hernandez, likely a "low-level player in a possibly larger scheme that never came to fruition," who pleaded guilty to improperly returning a marked ballot. 

Hernandez collected a blank ballot from a woman, filled it out, and forged her signature, according to court records. 

Prosecutors in the case told the Post that while they initially suspected as many as 1,700 fraudulent ballots, "we did not uncover that, at all... We couldn't find it except that little tiny case."

"Unfortunately, it speaks volumes to the credibility of Attorney General Barr when he submits half-truths and alternative facts as clear evidence of voter fraud without having so much as even contacted me or the district attorney's office for an understanding of the events that actually occurred," Chatham told the Post. 

A Justice Department spokesperson said Friday, as news of the prosecutors' objections to Barr's story spread across social media, that the attorney general had received inaccurate information from a staffer. 

"Was that staffer a Trump appointee?" asked journalist and activist Isaiah Poole. "Was he disciplined or fired?"

Prosecutors also called into question, as a number of academic studies of election fraud have, Barr's claim that elections in which mail-in ballots are primarily used lead to "substantial fraud and coercion."

Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington all use mail-in ballots as their primary method of voting, and President Donald Trump cast a mail-in ballot last month in the Florida primary despite his ongoing claims that voting by mail invites fraud. In 2018, a quarter of all American voters cast ballots via mail.

A study by the Post of five elections held over two years in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon showed that out of 14.6 million votes, officials identified 372 possibly fraudulent votes—a rate of 0.0025%. 

Local prosecutors in states that use mail-in voting do not classify fraudulent voters as much of a concern; as Chatham told the Post, fraudulent ballots are "incredibly simple to ferret out" before they have an impact on an election's outcome. 

"Not only are there barcodes on the ballot, but the ballot won't be accepted unless it is from a registered voter, whose name and signature are verified by elections officials,” Columbia University elections expert Richard Briffault told the Post.

Noah Bookbinder, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), tweeted that Barr's credibility was "compromised" well before his latest claim about fraudulent voting. 

"Misrepresenting investigations for political purposes further erodes trust in him and the DOJ," Bookbinder wrote. 

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45538

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

That isn’t quite right. While each state has one vote, that vote does not depend on the electoral vote. Each state’s House delegation votes for their choice among the top 3 finishers and the winner gets the one vote for that state.

Sorry, I didn't mean to say one triggered the other.  It's the likely way the vote would go.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45491

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

This is a bad sign for the Trumpkin campaign. Why the heck are they leaving the air here?  
 

kanye tried hard to get on the ballot recently and it looks like he will fail. There’s a poll recently with mark Kelly about 15 points ahead of mcstinky. I think the numbers in Arizona for Trump could be worse than people realize.
 

 

The entire "plot" to get Kanye on ballots is insanely idiotic and thus, entirely on brand.  The brain power required to come up with a scheme of such absurdity is just stunning.

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Red Five

Red Five 40627

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Posted
There's also a plausible tie where you take 2016 and just flip PA, MI, and NE-2.

That said, AZ is increasingly looking like very long odds for Trump.

Yeah in that scenario Trump is winning Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida... not to mention Ohio, Georgia, NC, etc. I don’t know how plausible that is, barring fraud of course.
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45491

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pyrohornIII said:

I read somewhere this morning that Trump is using a bunch of campaign money for legal battles.  I assume for fighting different voting things.  

It wouldn't surprise me if it came out that he has shifted more campaign money into Trump properties and is beginning to do so at a faster clip.  Like he knows he is sunk, and is raiding the company safe.

 

Here's a good article about Barr and his claim of 1,700 fraudulent absentee ballots in Texas.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/09/04/thats-not-what-happened-all-say-prosecutors-after-barr-falsely-claims-man-cast-1700

 

Someone needs to call him on this bullshit.  Fucking make him double down.

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formermav43

formermav43 4599

Posted
Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Sorry, I didn't mean to say one triggered the other.  It's the likely way the vote would go.

Gotcha. It is the most likely outcome in the aggregate, you’re right. But depending on 1) how the Reps view their jobs (to vote for the popular vote winner? for the winner of their state? Of their district? The candidate they thought best regardless of the vote? Their party’s candidate regardless of vote?) and 2) the breakdown of those philosophies and/or parties within a state’s delegation, there’s at least the potential for a state or two to surprise.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Arizona is full of white trash hicks - not counting on the Latino vote as an offset. 

Arizona is like Williamson County. Used to be dominated by white rednecks who always reliably voted R but has over the years because of increased population became a mix of more liberal leaning whites and Hispanics and is now more democratic than republican. Arizona is actually more dem now than Williamson county but it’s basically the same story. 

Edited by JimmyJames
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Longhornmaniac8

Longhornmaniac8 255

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Not sure why you laugh, state shifted in 2016 to Right leaning for first time in forever. The Democratic wall state is no longer. It's definitely a toss up state in 2020

I read that article, too. It's not really what it said. In an average year, it might be a toss up state, but in 2020 it's still definitely in the Lean Democratic column. That's more a function of the political environment than the state itself, but it doesn't change that it's not a toss up in 2020.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17420

Posted
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Not sure why you laugh, state shifted in 2016 to Right leaning for first time in forever. The Democratic wall state is no longer. It's definitely a toss up state in 2020

Are you just ignoring 2018? Also, how the fuck can you say that it shifted to right leaning in 2016 when Hillary still won the state? That doesn't make any sense. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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gmr548

gmr548 16482

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Posted
Not sure why you laugh, state shifted in 2016 to Right leaning for first time in forever. The Democratic wall state is no longer. It's definitely a toss up state in 2020
Myth based on lazy analysis by the media. Trump ran exactly in line with Romney. Exactly. People just specifically decided to not vote for Hillary Clinton. The 45 percent Trump got in the state has proven to be the absolute GOP ceiling there. 2018 was a bloodbath. GOP didn't even pass 45 percent against Keith Ellison, who's basically lab-created to rile up the kind of non college white voter so often cited as making the state a tossup.

It's not a tossup. Not this year. Trump will get 44-45 percent and Biden will win it 52-45 or something.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Myth based on lazy analysis by the media. Trump ran exactly in line with Romney. Exactly. People just specifically decided to not vote for Hillary Clinton. The 45 percent Trump got in the state has proven to be the absolute GOP ceiling there. 2018 was a bloodbath. GOP didn't even pass 45 percent against Keith Ellison, who's basically lab-created to rile up the kind of non college white voter so often cited as making the state a tossup.

It's not a tossup. Not this year. Trump will get 44-45 percent and Biden will win it 52-45 or something.
 

It’s a largely white state so naturally Trumpkins think they can win it based on racism. They figure all white  people are just as racist as they are. 
 

Thats basically how they think. It’s stupid but like trump says about the Covid dead, it is what it is. 

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