2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[ChiTownDoc 21,098]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I believe what you meant to say was that you hope I'm dead fucking wrong. Because that's what I hope. 

Lol.  Exactly.  Sleep deprivation is also a hell of a drug.  

[ndawg 1,242]

16 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

The owner of 538 wrote an entire article about how his model was flawed, for the exact reasons I laid out. They also made significant changes to the model this time around to correct for those flaws. So if the model was "absolutely fine" that's news to the guy who created it.

Fair enough. I'm glad they are improving their modeling, I just declared a holy war four years ago against the notion that a model that predicted a 25% chance for Trump to win is bunk. I jumped to the conclusion that I was seeing that here, sorry about that.

[BradInATX 9,208]

14 minutes ago, ndawg said:

Fair enough. I'm glad they are improving their modeling, I just declared a holy war four years ago against the notion that a model that predicted a 25% chance for Trump to win is bunk. I jumped to the conclusion that I was seeing that here, sorry about that.

Nope, that's definitely not me, and I understand the reaction. Nothing more annoying than "LOL 538 is garbage" because they had a 70% chance of Hillary winning. Trump had the same odds that an above-average baseball hitter has every time steps up to the plate. And they had one of the highest Trump numbers, too.

Was just adding on to what Snake said which was basically "if Biden loses PA, he probably lost a bunch of other states too because momentum isn't individual to each state" (sorry if I'm mis-paraphrasing you Snake). The whole thing was an interesting study in statistics. Nate Silver acknowledged afterwards that while his model did incorporate states being "tied" to one another, he didn't incorporate it enough. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

There's definitely something different in PA. It's not hopeless - I'm sure Biden can cut into Trump's margins in rural areas, even if only slightly, by just not being Hillary. And Democratic enthusiasm is unquestionably up. Philadelphia and its surrounds drive essentually all the growth in the state and that area isn't getting any more Trump friendly. That's a lot going for yoy when you've only got to close a gap of 45k votes.

But yes, PA is probably the most tenuous of the three Midwestern states. And it's the most important, as flipping MI, WI, and AZ only gets Biden to 269.

Biden is favored in Nebraska’s 2nd district.  That would get Biden to 270 in your scenario.

michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona seem to be looking good for Biden.  

[Ghost of LL 15,477]

6 hours ago, BradInATX said:

 

That is a great article. Some interesting insights. Trump spending $0 in Texas. My guess is that they know if they lose Texas they've already lost the whole thing probably in a landslide, so no use putting money into it. And although it says Biden is throwing a few million into Georgia, probably to make Trump play defense there, he's ignored it so far. Sort of the reverse of Texas. Their data folks have run scenarios and understand that if Georgia goes blue, so have the other 6-7 swing states. 

The 6 states that they're both focusing on (WI/MI/PA, plus FL, NC, AZ) make sense. There are no other states that have a chance to swing the election.

It's a sign of weakness and desperation that Trump is trying to flip MN/CO. There's a zero percent chance he takes CO, and a 5% chance he takes MN. I'm still worried about the rust belt and I still give Trump a shot to win it all, but he's not winning those two.
 

I'm just glad to see Biden running a smart, tactical campaign instead of running around trying to drink champagne with the cool tech kids and running up the score in California with his hair on fire like you-know-who. 

I have said it before, but I'll say it again--I think both campaigns are underestimating the importance of Texas.

Texas doesn't have mail-in voting in any significant numbers.  And to the extent there is mail-in voting, the ballots must be received by the county clerk's office by Election Day.  So we are going to know the results of the election in Texas on Election Night.

If Trump loses Texas, there's no contesting the election.  Pennsylvania doesn't mean shit.  Florida doesn't mean shit.  If Trump loses Texas, this thing is fucking over.

2 hours ago, Herpa Derpa said:

All polls will likely tighten 1- 3% as the outfits push for likely over registered voters.  But every one that has Biden at 50% or better should send a shiver down a GOP spine.  Hard to overcome half with less than half.

A challenger who is polling above 50% is pretty hard to bet against.  That means that people have made up their minds about the incumbent's job performance, and it isn't favorable.  It's just really hard for an incumbent to claw that back.

2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

that's definitely a scary way to look at it.  but on the flipside, if biden wins where he should - michigan, penn, minny, etc, then he only needs one of arizona, wisconsin, north carolina, florida to win.  trump needs all of them.

for what it's worth, on predictit, arizona ($0.66) has moved past penn and is now medium blue, where penn ($0.63) and fla ($0.53) are the only light blue states remaining.  north caro remains the lightest red state at $0.52 currently.  so if biden wins az, mich, wisconsin, that puts him at 269 with the split state vote waiting to push him to 270.  with 20 ev, penn is obviously the most important of that grouping.

Ah, but if Biden wins NE02, then he has 270.

[Biff Tannen 45,491]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

If Trump loses Texas, there's no contesting the election.  Pennsylvania doesn't mean shit.  Florida doesn't mean shit.  If Trump loses Texas, this thing is fucking over.

From your lips to God's ears, I hope.  Let's do this shit.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,554]

10 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

From your lips to God's ears, I hope.  Let's do this shit.

I will vote as often as I can here in TX.

[The Dog 43,793]

19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I have said it before, but I'll say it again--I think both campaigns are underestimating the importance of Texas.

Texas doesn't have mail-in voting in any significant numbers.  And to the extent there is mail-in voting, the ballots must be received by the county clerk's office by Election Day.  So we are going to know the results of the election in Texas on Election Night.

I keep wondering why both candidates aren't putting more money here - the polls we have access to on 538 and RCP both show a very tight race. The internals for both campaigns must say something else or the Biden campaign and DNC just don't have the guts to go for it with so many other states in play. 

20 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

A challenger who is polling above 50% is pretty hard to bet against.  That means that people have made up their minds about the incumbent's job performance, and it isn't favorable.  It's just really hard for an incumbent to claw that back.

Agreed and this dovetails to my point earlier that the pollsters were pretty accurate in gauging Hillary's support in 2016. If they are that accurate in 2020 with Biden then he's in great shape as he's either at 50% or very close to it in the RCP averages of many "battleground" states. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

40 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Biden is favored in Nebraska’s 2nd district.  That would get Biden to 270 in your scenario.

michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona seem to be looking good for Biden.  

O Lord, if Biden wins that Nebraska district I may forgive some of my spouse's relatives.

[Ghost of LL 15,477]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I keep wondering why both candidates aren't putting more money here - the polls we have access to on 538 and RCP both show a very tight race. The internals for both campaigns must say something else or the Biden campaign and DNC just don't have the guts to go for it with so many other states in play. 

As I understand it, it really is just a matter of resource allocation.

I've heard it estimated that if you really wanted to contest Texas, you'd need to spend $65M.  Even recognizing that Biden pulled in $365M in August, that's still a huge proportion of your available resources.  And yeah--they don't have the guts to do it.  Not when they think they have an easier and more conventional path through the Upper Midwest.

My point has been that this isn't a conventional fight.  You need to win early and you need to win decisively.  Only Texas gives you that.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I keep wondering why both candidates aren't putting more money here - the polls we have access to on 538 and RCP both show a very tight race. The internals for both campaigns must say something else or the Biden campaign and DNC just don't have the guts to go for it with so many other states in play. 

Agreed and this dovetails to my point earlier that the pollsters were pretty accurate in gauging Hillary's support in 2016. If they are that accurate in 2020 with Biden then he's in great shape as he's either at 50% or very close to it in the RCP averages of many "battleground" states. 

I've been getting notifications from the Biden team on my phone (and I'm not even signed up for those) and calls but tbh I don't watch enough television or listen to radio to know about money spent. Do you mean ads? Signs? Visits? I'd love for him to do a big Texas virtual town hall city by city or something.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

I posted this far up this thread, but Hillary actually performed almost right at or even a bit better than her RCP averages in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The pollsters actually did a very good job estimating her share of the vote, and so I think it's safe to assume they will do the same for Biden. If anything, they might be underestimating Biden's support as many pollsters changed their approach to get more blue collar/non-college whites in the samples to try and more accurately gauge Trump's support. 

Something to keep in mind.

You got a link for that because I believe that is 100 percent wrong.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
 

 Link on how Hillary was predicted to win Michigan. She didn’t when about 50k or so straight ticket Detroit area democrat voters magically somehow deselected her as their vote for president.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

Hillary predicted to win Pennsylvania.  Although only by 2 points.
 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

[JimmyJames 12,271]

The Wisconsin vote was off by 7 points.
 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

 

Manafort and the russians stole it. Unlike Michigan, Not sure how they did it but they did.

[The Dog 43,793]

I’m referring to share of the vote [mention]JimmyJames [/mention] not margin.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

The polls were all spot on except in those three states. Those three and parts of Florida were the ones targeted by manafort and the russians.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

6 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

The polls were all spot on except in those three states. Those three and parts of Florida were the ones targeted by manafort and the russians.

Wasn't WI where Roger Stone did the whole 'accusation as confession' schtick against Scott Walker prior to November? I believe it was. (Ted Cruz got the nom for the state). Laying the groundwork as it was. Old Roger is such a slimeball.

[formermav43 4,599]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I have said it before, but I'll say it again--I think both campaigns are underestimating the importance of Texas.

Texas doesn't have mail-in voting in any significant numbers.  And to the extent there is mail-in voting, the ballots must be received by the county clerk's office by Election Day.  So we are going to know the results of the election in Texas on Election Night.

Ironically, I just received this text not 20 minutes ago:

“Hey, formermav43. Sheena here with TX GOP. Im voting Republican in Nov Help Keep Texas Red. We sent U an absentee ballot application. STOP 2 Stop.”

[Biff Tannen 45,491]

1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

Ironically, I just received this text not 20 minutes ago:

“Hey, formermav43. Sheena here with TX GOP. Im voting Republican in Nov Help Keep Texas Red. We sent U an absentee ballot application. STOP 2 Stop.”

Did you respond?

[formermav43 4,599]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Did you respond?

STOP

I’m not as devious/creative/bored as some around here.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

One of my children was receiving texts from the GOP to the person who had his number prior to him. I didn't know until he started reading me from the responses he was sending back. I should post them sometime. Never give a smart bored teen questions like, "are you worried about the socialists?" I probably didn't get the question right, but it was something like that.

[Herpa Derpa 6,111]

56 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

STOP

I’m not as devious/creative/bored as some around here.

Nothing d/c/b needed.  Just a quick reply "Thanks, can't wait to vote for Joe."

[Herpa Derpa 6,111]

Biden needs to start hammering the forced sterilization stories popping up as evidence that a vote for Trump is an Anti-Life vote.  Won't get him any votes, but it can definitely get a few staying home and refusing to hold their nose.  Also could make the difference in GA Senate races.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ice-forced-sterilizations-claim-revives-americas-sick-eugenics-tradition

https://newschannel9.com/news/local/nurse-questions-medical-care-claims-forced-hysterectomies-at-immigration-jail-in-georgia

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

Ironically, I just received this text not 20 minutes ago:

“Hey, formermav43. Sheena here with TX GOP. Im voting Republican in Nov Help Keep Texas Red. We sent U an absentee ballot application. STOP 2 Stop.”

Should have asked Sheena for nudes.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/orlando-democratic-voters-trump-reelection-415526
 

an interesting article about Florida.

[henrygandorf 29,174]

i just got a text from "josh" from "stop trump".  they're organizing a get out the vote campaign in arizona.

a one-time donation is fine, but they prefer a weekly commitment.

iphone with the "maybe josh" on the contact.

[GhostOfTomJoad 9,307]

Just gonna add that my wife and I were encouraged by the young guys cruising through our Cedar Park neighborhood during prime suburbanites walking dog time blaring YG's Fuck Donald Trump from their car stereo with the windows down.

More encouraging was the number of said suburbanites signaling their support & approval.

[gmr548 16,491]

That was exactly what was wrong with 538's model, as well as most of the others in 2016. Their models worked as if each state operated in a vacuum. Where they should have been under the assumption that if Trump outperforms in one state, he's likely to outperform in several other states, especially similar/nearby states. That's what happened in the rust belt and here we are. I think the Rust Belt will continue to move together, FL is its own thing, GA/NC will move together, and Arizona is probably its own thing.

AZ should move generally in line with Texas. Its equilibrium is just closer to the center.

[gmr548 16,491]

Biden is favored in Nebraska’s 2nd district.  That would get Biden to 270 in your scenario.
michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona seem to be looking good for Biden.  

There have been zero quality polls there and Ds couldn't flip the congressional seat in 2018. Biden being favored there is an unreliable shot in the dark. I wouldn't hold your breath.

[Wulaw Horn 18,973]

7 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Crazy how effectively only 4 states are deciding the election - PA, MI, WI, and AZ. Biden basically needs 3 of the 4 to eek out a win assuming FL, NC, and OH stay red.

I don’t think that’s quite right is it?  Doesn’t he need PA and 2 of the other 3? I.e. he doesn’t get home with MI, WI and AZ by themselves...

[Gap03 3,278]

That's correct - MI, WI and AZ get Biden to 269, at which point he needs either a stray EV from NE or ME or PA.  AT 269, it goes to the House, where we'd get 4 more years of this shit.

[6th Street 6,355]

55 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t think that’s quite right is it?  Doesn’t he need PA and 2 of the other 3? I.e. he doesn’t get home with MI, WI and AZ by themselves...

Close enough 

[LurkingHorn 1,044]

If tonight is any indication, the debates are not going to do DT any favors. Don’t know how much movement will happen either way at this point, but you have to imagine Trump isn’t going to be gaining much. 

[Francisco 2.0 32,318]

7 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

If tonight is any indication, the debates are not going to do DT any favors. Don’t know how much movement will happen either way at this point, but you have to imagine Trump isn’t going to be gaining much. 

 

I'm wondering if the first debate goes poorly for Trump, he just skips the last two because it's "rigged".  Recall, he skipped a GOP primary debate in 2016 and held a rally at the same time.

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Biden is favored in Nebraska’s 2nd district.  That would get Biden to 270 in your scenario.
michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona seem to be looking good for Biden.  

There have been zero quality polls there and Ds couldn't flip the congressional seat in 2018. Biden being favored there is an unreliable shot in the dark. I wouldn't hold your breath.

Refer to this electoral college map. It’s latest update was September 10th and that was when Nebraska 2nd got moved to lean Democrat.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-president/

[gmr548 16,491]

Refer to this electoral college map. It’s latest update was September 10th and that was when Nebraska 2nd got moved to lean Democrat.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2020-president/

I'm not saying that Biden being favored isn't the consensus, I'm saying there's very little evidence to support it.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

12 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

I'm wondering if the first debate goes poorly for Trump, he just skips the last two because it's "rigged".  Recall, he skipped a GOP primary debate in 2016 and held a rally at the same time.

 

Sure seems like Fox is laying the groundwork for that tonight. 

[Guest Lobo]

still bizarre to me, that Maine technically has 0 Democratic Senator but still 2 Democratic Congressmen and Governor.  And based on a few precincts around Bangor...could throw all 4 EC votes to Biden despite there being no statewide Senatorial vote precedent for Biden.  I dunno, seems weird.  But hey, I'm for anything to get Biden to 270.  And he can now pick up one in Nebraska.  5 votes from those two goofball states would be just as important as "new battleground Nevada."  

Early voting starts just 4 weeks from today in Texas.  They don't have much longer to fuck us all over.  

Edited September 16, 2020 by Lobo

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

still bizarre to me, that Maine technically has 0 Democratic Senators, 2 Democratic Congressmen.  And based on a few precincts around Bangor...could throw all 4 EC votes to Biden despite there being no statewide Senatorial vote precedent for Biden.  I dunno, seems weird.  But hey, I'm for anything to get Biden to 270.  And he can now pick up one in Nebraska.  5 votes from those two goofball states would be just as important as "new battleground Nevada."  

Early voting starts just 4 weeks from today in Texas.  They don't have much longer to fuck us all over.  

Maine is a very weird state.

 

maine almost might as well be a part of canada.

[SimonBolivar 10,911]

5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Maine is a very weird state.

 

maine almost might as well be a part of canada.

Stephen King's Playland 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

I hope they are more like Anna Kendrick and less Susan Collins, because Susan needs to go. 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5,342]

Dems should be poring buckets of money into the Maine senate race. 

[thepop 4,409]

12 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Dems should be poring buckets of money into the Maine senate race. 

She's fine. Collins in comparison has raised around 16 million. Both have around 5 million remaining on hand.

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

When the hell is Biden going to Arizona and Nevada?
 

the report about his Latino support dropping is mildly concerning. 
 

He is the favorite in Arizona and it would help him a lot if he visited there a few times. He also needs to visit Nevada to make sure Trump doesn’t steal it from him.

Edited September 16, 2020 by Voldemort86

[totallynotabuttpirate 5,342]

29 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

When the hell is Biden going to Arizona and Nevada?
 

the report about his Latino support dropping is mildly concerning. 
 

He is the favorite in Arizona and it would help him a lot if he visited there a few times. He also needs to visit Nevada to make sure Trump doesn’t steal it from him.

Kelly is going to deliver AZ. He will prob visit in the next few weeks. Florida is what everyone wants him to do in TX. If he wins there, game over. So it makes sense to visit a billion times and spend 200 mil. Much much much more likely to flip than TX. 

Edited September 16, 2020 by totallynotabuttpirate

[Voldemort86 2,259]

5 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Kelly is going to deliver AZ. He will prob visit in the next few weeks. Florida is what everyone wants him to do in TX. If he wins there, game over. So it makes sense to visit a billion times and spend 200 mil. Much much much more likely to flip than TX. 

Hilary Clinton lost because of overconfidence. She didn’t visit Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, or Iowa.

Biden still needs to check in and visit each state that could conceivably flip or go to Trump. Biden needs to be visiting more places going forward and virtual fundraise less.

Edited September 16, 2020 by Voldemort86

[totallynotabuttpirate 5,342]

10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Hilary Clinton lost because of overconfidence. She didn’t visit Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, or Iowa.

Biden still needs to check in and visit each state that could conceivably flip or go to Trump. Biden needs to be visiting more places going forward and virtual fundraise less.

Hillary lost because she’s a woman that many people disliked for mostly sexist and superficial reasons. 

[washparkhorn 9,935]

Does the public pay attention to the President anymore? 

He is making excuses now. That is someone who is losing. 

Edited September 16, 2020 by washparkhorn

[Voldemort86 2,259]

58 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Does the public pay attention to the President anymore? 

He is making excuses now. That is someone who is losing. 

All he’s done for 4 years is make excuses, deflect blame, and be the first in line to take credit for others hard work.

if some people haven’t noticed that by now ( Trumpeteer voters) they never will.