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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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1 hour ago, hayden_horn said:

ha, you tell cousin moe that. his fist is as big as my head.

i get your point, but it was more of a lamentation of the loss of a way of life that was far more comfortable. coal to be mined, coal to be hauled. coal was the very identity of that whole area and was where everyone worked in some capacity, joined the union, lived in the little pink houses for you and me. now the pink paint is peeling, the wood is rotting and here come these goddamned texas carpetbaggers. he made money, i'm sure, just not in the way he was used to making it.

to you and me, that might seem strange, but we didn't grow up in  coal country.

I know I'm a broken record, but the Republican destruction of unions is the main reason for the erosion of the middle class. The destruction of unions is what is hurting the Democratic party in many states. It's one of the most destructive events for the upward movement of Americans. 

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Also those numbers of employees at those tech  companies, you can probably triple them to get a true number of people who have employment because of those companies when you take into account contractors and partner companies who do 100% of their work for those companies. For example, there are a ton of people that work for third party companies whose only client is Facebook. I know a couple of guys who were in those roles, they used to tell people they worked for Facebook because it sounded cooler at parties than "I work for Nondescript LLC". They worked for Facebook every minute of their day. They were Facebook employees in everything except name.

A lot of people don't really grasp how many people those companies employ, directly or indirectly.

That said, the Democrats absolutely have to find a way to avoid becoming perceived as the party of wealthy technocrats. It's a double-edged sword because candidates who understand the real world these days might be pigeonholed into that "technocrat" cliche, and trying to stay blue collar gives us 95 year old baby boomers who probably don't know how to attach a Word doc to an email.

Edited by BradInATX
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4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

My worry re: polls & Trump voters is that no one will admit they voted for him. It is like a deep dark secret they won't own up to.

I think Trump voters are nervous about the shit they will rightfully get for putting this dipshit into office and never will admit they will fucking do it again in the upcoming election.

Where do you see any evidence of shy Trump voters?  Everything I have seen is that Trump voters are they opposite of shy.  They're flamboyant in their deplorability. 

If anything, I think there is evidence of there being a shy Biden vote (particularly among working-class rural women).  

48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You are presupposing that the Dems can hold onto the massive suburban gains they've made in Texas (and some other places) that I would argue have nothing to do with them but rather with Donald Trump's vileness.  I don't think it's necessarily policy that's driven any of this.  Suburban voters will always be open to the idea of lower taxes, strong military, social peace, no upheaval b/c suburban voters have it pretty good, and they aren't chaos agents looking to remake society, by and large.  

It could be that the Trump stink lasts. It could be that they become climate voters. But it's not dem policy (I don't think) driving Wilco and Fort Bend blue- it's Trump dumbfuckery. I suspect. If he disappears and is replaced by a Paul Ryan type nobody that isn't dyed in the wool blue is going to find him offensive- I don't think.

And for that reason, Greg Abbott and the rest of the statewide elected Republicans need to be praying for a Biden victory.  If Trump were somehow to win, 2022 would be very bad for Texas Republicans.

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Where do you see any evidence of shy Trump voters?  Everything I have seen is that Trump voters are they opposite of shy.  They're flamboyant in their deplorability. 

If anything, I think there is evidence of there being a shy Biden vote (particularly among working-class rural women).  

And for that reason, Greg Abbott and the rest of the statewide elected Republicans need to be praying for a Biden victory.  If Trump were somehow to win, 2022 would be very bad for Texas Republicans.

Absolutely. 

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Where do you see any evidence of shy Trump voters?  Everything I have seen is that Trump voters are they opposite of shy.  They're flamboyant in their deplorability. 

If anything, I think there is evidence of there being a shy Biden vote (particularly among working-class rural women).  

And for that reason, Greg Abbott and the rest of the statewide elected Republicans need to be praying for a Biden victory.  If Trump were somehow to win, 2022 would be very bad for Texas Republicans.

I guess I’m going off signs in my neighborhood. 100% Biden. Admittedly I’m in Central Austin but It’s eerily reminiscent of last election. Only place I’ve seen Trump signs was at Horseshoe Bay. 

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14 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I guess I’m going off signs in my neighborhood. 100% Biden. Admittedly I’m in Central Austin but It’s eerily reminiscent of last election. Only place I’ve seen Trump signs was at Horseshoe Bay. 

But the "shy Trump voter" theory isn't about yard signs.  It's about the accuracy of the polls.

Some people posit that the polls underestimate Trump's support because there are a bunch of shy Trump voters out there.  Specifically, there are people who are embarrassed to tell a pollster that s/he is voting for Trump.

There is literally no evidence for that.

But I am wondering whether there might be a shy Biden vote among (particularly) women who wouldn't want their spouse to hear that they're voting for Biden over Trump.  I don't have any evidence for that, either.  But I think that makes a lot more intuitive sense than the prospect of a bunch of Trump voters who just go unidentified by pollsters.

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20 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I guess I’m going off signs in my neighborhood. 100% Biden. Admittedly I’m in Central Austin but It’s eerily reminiscent of last election. Only place I’ve seen Trump signs was at Horseshoe Bay. 

Didn't Austin vote for Clinton at nearly 80%? 

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2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I do think there is a shy Trump voter contingent. I think it has been basically proven via approval polls that around 35% of people are actually cult members, but there’s still 10% or so that needs to be accounted for. Are we assuming all of that 10% is switching to Biden?  Seems risky. 

No, the assumption is that the 10% is 10%, not actually 15%.

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5 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Never underestimate the ability of a failed institution like the Texas Democratic Party to fail. It's not what they do. It's what they are. 

The fact that I was 2 the last time a Democrat was governor of Texas shows how bad they've been in Texas, or how tactical Republicans been. Most likely both.

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2 hours ago, Pancho said:

I've seen several Biden ads just today alone here in Houston.  The one with Beau is strong. 

In Austin, seeing Biden ads every once in awhile. Have yet to see a trump ad. Never once saw a Hillary ad. I take this as a good sign.

Mainly see Wendy Davis ads and anti Wendy Davis ads. I won’t comment further since I don’t want to help the other side.

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2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, at this point I just want to know what you think a tech company looks like. Because from your posts it seems like it's one or two dozen people, a couple of desktops, and everyone taking turns lighting pyramids of money on fire after sliding down them like The Joker. 

Ok- let me see if I can flesh this out to something that makes sense after a piss poor job before...

start with this fact- half of America is made up of individuals with below average intelligence... so far so good, right?  
Now, intelligence isn’t something that is a direct 1/1 marker of success, but let’s just say being smarter is generally more likely to lead to economic success and well being than being dumb. 

So far we have an absolute truth and I think  a proposition that most can probably agree with, right?

Now- many jobs- especially jobs in the new economy- require a minimum level of cerebral horsepower to be able to get and retain the job. Again, I’d like to think that we are all still pretty much in agreement here, right?

So, what kind of jobs are created by the new economy?  Coding, engineering, sales, product development, supply chain, legal, marketing etc. those are all, in the main, white collar jobs that probably require a degree, demonstrated proficiency, training, and can’t probably be done, in the main, by people that aren’t fairly sharp. Those jobs all pay pretty well. But, are they aspirational and attainable by large swaths of the middle class, middle America, and people that have an IQ of 90 or 95? My thought and argument is, probably not. 


I taught high school (regular track kids) for a couple years because I love teaching and helping people. It was something I could do, while I was going through some shit in my personal life, that I could feel good about doing to give back to my community, after I’d built a business and had enough of a nest egg where I didn’t have to worry about money for 5 years or so. And, I have to tell you, I don’t think most of my kids in those classes would have, work in the new economy in a tech company as a viable way forward for them to make money in their future. 

What is it likely they ended up doing?  Working retail, hospitality, truck driving, servicing, manufacturing, landscaping and trades. That’s what most of their parents were doing. And for a lot of those kids, that’s definitely a path to middle class (and maybe upper middle class for a few of them). But, and this is key, they were all on the outskirts of a major economic metro area in houston where these kind of jobs exist and are decent paying.  It’s a ticket to somewhere between survival and doing pretty well economically. 

But- I go to a place like my ex used to live in rural Iowa, or Polk County Texas where my wife is from and that path just doesn’t exist nor does the opportunity to go work in a new economy white collar job. 
And that’s scary and painful. 

It used to be you could go get a union job in the plant and make a middle class living doing something not intellectually challenging and attainable for the kids at the bottom of the class.  But when that goes away and dries up, and there isn’t a vibrant service/hospitality/other market created by living near an economic hub what then for the bottom half of the class? 

Not much. And the new economy isn’t creating as many of those type of jobs as the old manufacturing and extracting economy did. And that leads to lots of problems. People that didn’t used to be losers are now losers (I mean this not as an inherent personal characteristic but rather in an economic sense) And nobody wants to feel like a loser. So, you have Silicon Valley billionaires creating something that’s not going to economically benefit those people in the way manufacturing in America would, and then you start hearing people talk about white privilege and you look around at your situation in life and it doesn’t resonate or make sense and you get pissed off. And then you find out you can vote for Donald Trump and that guy thats making you feel lesser than will take that as a stick in the eye and it makes a lot of sense. 

I’ve been places like that. I know people like this. I have talked to people like this. I see the bumper stickers about making liberals cry and I totally get it and understand it- both why it happens and why it exists. In the same way I replayed to a bad teammate post in the DT today about the officer shooting in California when he asked something along the lines of “how shitty must you be at your job for people to cheer you getting shot in the face” and I said- yeah- that was one of my main thoughts because I get that too. 

Most people don’t see the world beyond their own perspective. Some people can’t because they aren’t wired that way. Some people can’t because life is so hard that they don’t have time to think about things from someone else’s perspective. Some don’t want to do so. And that leads to people being easily pissed off and resentment and ugliness. 
 

now- Amazon is a different beast than the other colonies bc I’d argue that it’s not a tech company but a logistics company, and as such creates lots of jobs for boots on the street people that can be done by anyone. And those jobs tend to pay pretty decently. Sorting boxes at warehouses and delivery is the kind of thing that people I talked about getting left behind can do, make decent money (enough to support themselves anyway) and get thru life. But what kind of jobs like that are Google, Facebook, Netflix, twitter etc creating?  I don’t know. If there’s a big bunch of those jobs at places like that I’m ignorant and missing that and might well be wrong. 

final thought- none of this is an argument against creating jobs like this- it’s just a way of saying what are we going to do about those that get left behind. How does that work? What becomes of them. And what’s going to hold our society together and provide commonality for this guys?  


Because I don’t live in that world. I relate to those people (my grandpa’s both had hammers in their hands or worked the end of a broom their whole lives, my dad started out driving a bread truck and my mom was a receptionist at a doctors office before I watched them go back to school and become white collar as a tween) in my life through faith, football, country music, or asking them shit about how stuff works. Some people do that through guns. Some through cars. Some through share dislike groups perceived to be lesser. Maybe military stuff. But all that’s sort of becoming passé in the new world order/economy and what does that leave?  


Not sure how much more we’ll reasoned this is, but it’s a better encapsulation of what I was trying to say than my last shitty post that kick started the deserved deal clubbing I got trying to finish up at work. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ok- let me see if I can flesh this out to something that makes sense after a piss poor job before...

start with this fact- half of America is made up of individuals with below average intelligence... so far so good, right?  
Now, intelligence isn’t something that is a direct 1/1 marker of success, but let’s just say benign smarter is generally more likely to lead to economic success and well being than being dumb. 
So far we have an absolute truth and I think  a proposition that most can probably agree with, right?

Now- many jobs- especially jobs in the new economy- require a minimum level of cerebral horsepower to be able to get and retain the job. Again, I’d like to think that we are all still pretty much in agreement here, right?

So, what kind of jobs are created by the new economy?  Coding, engineering, sales, product development, supply chain, legal, marketing etc. those are all, in the main, white collar jobs that probably require a degree, demonstrated proficiency, training, and can’t probably be done, in the main, by people that aren’t fairly sharp. Those jobs all pay pretty well. But, are they aspirational and attainable by large swaths of the middle class, middle America, and people that have an IQ of 90 or 95? My thought and argument is, probably not. 
I taught high school (regular tract kids) for a couple years because I love teaching and helping people. It was something I could do, while I was going through some shit in my personal life, that I could feel good about doing to give back to my community, after I’d built a business and had enough of a nest egg where I didn’t have to worry about money for 5 years or so. And, I have to tell you, I don’t think most of my kids in those classes would have, work in the new economy in a tech company as a viable way forward for them to make money in their future. 
What is it likely they ended up doing?  Working retail, hospitality, truck driving, servicing, manufacturing, landscaping and trades. That’s what most of their parents were doing. And for a lot of those kids, that’s definitely a path to middle class (and maybe upper middle class for a few of them). But, and this is key, they were all on the outskirts of a major economic metro area in houston where these kind of jobs can exist and are decent paying jobs. It’s a ticket to somewhere between survival and doing pretty well economically. 
But- I go to a place like my ex used to live in rural Iowa, or Polk county where my wife is from and that path just doesn’t exist nor does the opportunity to go work in a new economy white collar job. 
And that’s scary and painful. 
It used to be you could go get a union job in the plant and make a middle class living doing something not intellectually challenging and attainable for the kids at the bottom of the class.  But when that goes away and dries up, and there isn’t a vibrant service/hospitality etc market created by living near an economic hub what then for the bottom half of the class? 

Not much. And the new economy isn’t creating as many of those type of jobs as the old manufacturing and extracting economy did. And that leads to lots of problems. People that didn’t used to be losers are now losers (I mean this it as an inherent personal characteristic but rather in an economic sense) And nobody wants to feel like a loser. So, you have Silicon Valley billionaires creating something that’s not going to economically benefit proper in the way manufacturing in America would, and then you start hearing people talk about white privilege and you look around at your situation in life and it doesn’t resonate or make sense and you get pissed off. And then you find out you can vote for Donald Trump and that guy thats making you feel lesser than will take that as a stick in the eye and it makes a lot of sense. 
I’ve been places like that. I know people like this. I have talked to people like this. I see the bumper stickers about making liberals cry and I totally get it and understand it. Why it happens and why it exists. In the same way I replayed to a bad teammate post in the DT today about the officer shooting in California when he asked something along the lines of “how shitty must you be at your job for people to cheer you getting shot in the face” and I said- yeah- that was one of my main thoughts because I get that too. 
Most people don’t see the world beyond their own perspective. Some people can’t because they aren’t wired that way. Some people can’t because life is so hard that they don’t have time to think about things from someone else’s perspective. Some don’t want to do so. And that leads to people being easily pissed off and resentment and ugliness. 
 

now- Amazon is a different beast than the other colonies bc I’d argue that it’s not a tech company but a logistics company, and as such creates lots of jobs for boots on the street people that can be done by anyone. And those jobs tend to pay pretty decently. Sorting boxes at warehouses and delivery is the kind of thing that people I talked about getting left behind can do, make decent money (enough to support themselves anyway) and get thru life. But what kind of jobs like that are Google, Facebook, Netflix, twitter etc creating?  I don’t know. If there’s a big bunch of those jobs at places like that I’m ignorant and missing that and might well be wrong. 
final thought- none of this is an argument against creating jobs like this- it’s just a way of saying what are we going to do about those that get left behind. How does that work? What becomes of them. And what’s going to hold our society together and provide commonality for this guys?  
Because I don’t live in that world. I relate to those people (my grandpa’s both had hammers in their hands or worked the end of a broom their whole lives, my dad started out driving a bread truck and my mom was a receptionist at a doctors office before I watched them go back to school and become white collar as a tween) in my life through faith, football, country music, or asking them shit about how stuff works. Some people do that through guns. Some through cars. Some through share dislike groups perceived to be lesser. Maybe military stuff. But all that’s sort of becoming passé in the new world order/economy and what does that leave?  
Not sure how much more we’ll reasoned this is, but it’s a better encapsulation of what I was trying to say than my last shitty post that kick started the deserved deal clubbing I got trying to finish up at work. 

Has a good possibility of being a good post but i aint  gonna read all that now. Will try to get back to you this weekend after a few jack and cokes. 

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3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Also, fuck that Cheeto tan wannabe dictator. That’s all I have towards the thread subject. Dipping back outta the cloak room now.

Peace, love, and corn.

I was joking about the Bloomberg thing, b/c it’s illustrative of how people in the new economy talk down to people they view as their lessers
“Anyone can grow corn. Dig a hole. Plant the seed. Cover it. Water it. Wait.”  
I learned from people that farmed for a living that it also requires balls of steel, the spirit of a river boat gambler, and the need to see around corners in a lot of ways and still, you could do everything right and have it not work out for you. 
Tough vocation/life style. 
 

 

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What do you think of sod farmers? my first real job after highschool. I always figured there was a farmer totem pole type deal that other farmers scoff at.


Someone’s gotta do it. There are guys who make a damn good living off it.

A lot of folks in ag develop silly “us v them” mentalities and feel threatened by different models and spend lots of effort to put them down. A lot of conventional guys get irate about organic and vice versa.

I don’t give a shit. Water your own yard. Make your model work, and if it doesn’t, adjust.
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1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

 


Someone’s gotta do it. There are guys who make a damn good living off it.

A lot of folks in ag develop silly “us v them” mentalities and feel threatened by different models and spend lots of effort to put them down. A lot of conventional guys get irate about organic and vice versa.

I don’t give a shit. Water your own yard. Make your model work, and if it doesn’t, adjust.

 

Badass worn you do and a badass outlook man. JuT wanted to throw some rep your way. 

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17 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

 


Someone’s gotta do it. There are guys who make a damn good living off it.

A lot of folks in ag develop silly “us v them” mentalities and feel threatened by different models and spend lots of effort to put them down. A lot of conventional guys get irate about organic and vice versa.

I don’t give a shit. Water your own yard. Make your model work, and if it doesn’t, adjust.

 

I can't seem to click on a thread on any board where you aren't talking about farming. You've been warned, bro

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9 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

I can't seem to click on a thread on any board where you aren't talking about farming. You've been warned, bro

This is where we need a tongue in cheek middle finger for a rep. If we had one I’d send it your way. Don’t stand in the way of a master craftsman demonstrating his  full range of skills. 

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44 minutes ago, thepop said:

If  your voter status is "suspense", do you have to show proof of address when you show up to vote? Or can you just say "yeah that is my address" and you proceed.

Found this on the SOS site. Looks like you show your I.D. and sign a statement.

An individual on the suspense list is still a registered voter and has the same rights as a non-suspense list voter. If a suspense list voter lives in the same residence, shows up at the same precinct location, shows proof of identification and fills out a statement of residence48, then the individual will be able to vote, and the voter’s name will be removed from the suspense list. If the voter has moved to a different residence located in the same county, the voter will also fill out a Statement of Residence and be permitted to vote, provided the voter is living in the political subdivision or territory covered by that election49. The Statement of Residence will be used to update the voter’s registration and remove the voter’s name from the suspense list. If the suspense list voter has moved outside of the county, the voter will be given the option to vote provisionally in accordance with Section 63.011.

 

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9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Good luck with that, Donnie.  NJ has had vote by mail for years now, including when you won the 2016 general election.

Other than absentee ballots, no, NJ has not had vote by mail.  But this year because of Covid the governor ordered that a ballot be mailed to all registered voters and that if you show up to vote in person, you will get a provisional ballot.

But trump is clearly just trying to confuse issues and make voting a mess in NJ.  He filed the suit in the ordinary course, rather than as an emergent matter, making timing issues with the election 50 days away and ballots about to be mailed out, even worse.   

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's vote by mail.  The system has been in place for a while now.  

Agreed absentee ballots are a way to vote by mail. But trump is trying to make a hash of the NJ election.  In the past, the only way to vote by mail was to request an absentee ballot.  The vast majority of voters in NJ voted in person.  This year, for the first time, NJ is mailing ballots to all registered voters, and if you show up in person, you can only vote by provisional ballot. There is already a lot of concern and confusion about how this will work, compounded by the USPS problems. And now trump has filed this nonsense suit, with ballots about to be mailed out.

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