2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[6th Street 6655]

51 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

PA, FL, and AZ actually.  I wouldn't worry about OH and MI is trending pretty well.  If they get all three of those with Michigan it's going to be a big win.  If Biden somehow gets a NC and/or WI then it's a landslide.

 

Agreed, Ohio is gone - overrun by hicks. Florida could be in play. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

10 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Agreed, Ohio is gone - overrun by hicks. Florida could be in play. 

Ohio and Florida elected Jim Jordan and Matt Gaetz respectively. They have just about enough intelligence to open their mouths when they want to eat.

 

*credit to P.G. Wodehouse for the paraphrase.

[gmr548 16681]

2 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

PA, FL, and AZ actually.  I wouldn't worry about OH and MI is trending pretty well.  If they get all three of those with Michigan it's going to be a big win.  If Biden somehow gets a NC and/or WI then it's a landslide.

 

If Democrats pick up MI and PA, both of which they lead outside the margin of error right now, pick one of WI (which is pretty similar to MI and PA - hard to imagine Biden walking in those two and losing WI), AZ (Biden lead), NC (tossup or slight Trump lead, but Ds with commanding advantage in governor's race), or FL (Biden lead but Democrats win FL polls like aggy wins spring game nattys) and the election is over. Hell, they could lose all those states and pick up congressional districts in ME and NE and that's a win.

Trump appearing to cede AZ and possibly NC is a grave electoral mistake. It really opens up Biden's paths to victory. The stars aligned for Trump in 2016 and they're going to have to again. Never say never of course.

Edit: Got my numbers crossed. Democrats are cruising in MI and PA right now, not MI and AZ. Though Biden does generally lead in AZ. Was thinking Senate race.

Edited May 16, 2020 by gmr548

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

Lots of fundraising talk in the last couple of days. Is there any way that this race is impacted by money or are we beyond that considering the constant media exposure and divisiveness of trump? I don’t see ad buys swaying people. GOTV in swing states is where a good chunk of my money would go.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

Highly recommend fellow Twitter users to follow G. Elliot Morris for polling/data if you don't already. He's young but pretty level-headed and provides good content. Also he's a Texas Ex. 

 

 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Hookah Horns 3089]

I will jizz in my pants if Biden wins TX. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

36 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

North Carolina is probably the big prize ( besides the presidency).

 

hmm let’s see........ democrats would keep their governor, get a senator seat, and they would presumably take over the legislature. Remember what just happened there, the NC state GOP drew an extremely disgusting and election proof gerrymander. Despite the fact that the state is very close every election, the repubs would win 10 out of 13 house seats everytime.

simply getting control of the map and drawing a 7 dem vs 6 repub map would really help the democrats in the house for the next decade.

[henrygandorf 29219]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

North Carolina is probably the big prize ( besides the presidency).

 

hmm let’s see........ democrats would keep their governor, get a senator seat, and they would presumably take over the legislature. Remember what just happened there, the NC state GOP drew an extremely disgusting and election proof gerrymander. Despite the fact that the state is very close every election, the repubs would win 10 out of 13 house seats everytime.

simply getting control of the map and drawing a 7 dem vs 6 repub map would really help the democrats in the house for the next decade.

shit like this is why this election is so important. get trump out/census year.  his drag on the ballot can fuck the gop for a decade.  let’s go. 

[Storm the Field 5360]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

One thing we haven’t talked about much is the effect of Covid 19 on this race. 
 

I know that trump was extremely eager to hit Biden with tons of ads the moment he got the nomination or the when the nomination was all but assured to be his. 
 

Trump can’t put tons of attack ads on tv right now because it will look bad with the pandemic raging. If anything, I think the coronavirus effect shortens the election cycle and could easily favor the challenger.

Trump also doesn’t really have anything to sell to the public now that the economy is gone.

[henrygandorf 29219]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Trump also doesn’t really have anything to sell to the public now that the economy is gone.

he’s already been telling his tales about where the market was in feb, and how it’ll be a pent up rocket ship come next year or whatever the fuck. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

11 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Trump also doesn’t really have anything to sell to the public now that the economy is gone.

He still has blatant racism which is key for about 42% of the voting public.  It may be hard to peel off additional voters with that line of messaging but they will try.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[Storm the Field 5360]

Not that Colorado was really in question, but just saw a poll with Biden +13. Hickenlooper up double digits as well. Not really much of a swing state anymore.

[Bama Chick 28596]

lol at the Biden campaign just entitling their latest email “trash”.

[BNB 100]

 

Did he forget he was on a call?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

I will never mentally count Florida as anything other than a loss. If it goes our way, we were probably going to win anyway. 

[Grade of D as in David 13255]

8 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I will never mentally count Florida as anything other than a loss. If it goes our way, we were probably going to win anyway. 

I do that as well, not just for the election, but life in general

[gmr548 16681]

I will never mentally count Florida as anything other than a loss. If it goes our way, we were probably going to win anyway. 

Yep. Democrats always lead FL polls. And unless they're named Obama, they lose the state.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

In 2012 Obama won Florida by less than 1%. Didn’t realize it was so close until I just looked.

[The Dog 44771]

31 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I will never mentally count Florida as anything other than a loss. If it goes our way, we were probably going to win anyway. 

Yep. Democrats always lead FL polls. And unless they're named Obama, they lose the state.

This isn't correct. In 2012 Romney led the polls and even was polling above 50% in several and still lost the state. The only polls that had Obama ahead were well within the margin of error: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html 

Obama winning that state was kind of an upset considering the polls. 

Keep in mind that Obama wasn't a very popular incumbent - his approval rating was below 50% for most of 2012. His approval rating ended up higher near the end of his second term, but re-election was anything but guaranteed. 

[Aqua Buddha 14782]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Get them to drink hydro and they all die off.  Duh.

[gmr548 16681]

This isn't correct. In 2012 Romney led the polls and even was polling above 50% in several and still lost the state. The only polls that had Obama ahead were well within the margin of error: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html 
Obama winning that state was kind of an upset considering the polls. 
Keep in mind that Obama wasn't a very popular incumbent - his approval rating was below 50% for most of 2012. His approval rating ended up higher near the end of his second term, but re-election was anything but guaranteed. 

Always was hyperbole, but my point was that Democrats - Clinton, Guillum, Nelson, etc and on down the line back to Al Gore - find ways to lose the state.

As an aside, Obama was in a pretty strong position as an incumbent. Historically a high 40s approval rating has meant a very good chance of winning. He was also better in swing states than he was nationally - sort of the opposite of a Hillary Clinton. The polls were closeish but I don't recall there being much doubt about that election by November.

[The Dog 44771]

Just now, gmr548 said:

Always was hyperbole, but my point was that Democrats - Clinton, Guillum, Nelson, etc and on down the line back to Al Gore - find ways to lose the state.

As an aside, Obama was in a pretty strong position as an incumbent. Historically a high 40s approval rating has meant a very good chance of winning. He was also better in swing states than he was nationally - sort of the opposite of a Hillary Clinton. The polls were closeish but I don't recall there being much doubt about that election by November.

Understand why you feel that way - Florida has large numbers of loyal voters and they are split right down the middle with few "swing" voters, so margins are currently razor thin. 

That and Florida seems to have forgotten how to run an election...

[gmr548 16681]

Understand why you feel that way - Florida has large numbers of loyal voters and they are split right down the middle with few "swing" voters, so margins are currently razor thin. 
That and Florida seems to have forgotten how to run an election...

Florida olds vote like it's keeping them alive, they vote Republican, and there are a shitload of them. I've always just figured that and everything north of Miami essentially being AL or GA keeps the electorate more Republican than the overall population. Which is why Trump losing ground in that group is so significant. Olds elected him. He's turbofucked without them. Long way to go though, could very easily turn back around.

[The Dog 44771]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Understand why you feel that way - Florida has large numbers of loyal voters and they are split right down the middle with few "swing" voters, so margins are currently razor thin. 
That and Florida seems to have forgotten how to run an election...

Florida olds vote like it's keeping them alive, they vote Republican, and there are a shitload of them. I've always just figured that and everything north of Miami essentially being AL or GA keeps the electorate more Republican than the overall population. Which is why Trump losing ground in that group is so significant. Olds elected him. He's turbofucked without them. Long way to go though, could very easily turn back around.

Biden needs to not overplay the hand he's been dealt.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

This isn't correct. In 2012 Romney led the polls and even was polling above 50% in several and still lost the state. The only polls that had Obama ahead were well within the margin of error: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html 

Obama winning that state was kind of an upset considering the polls. 

Keep in mind that Obama wasn't a very popular incumbent - his approval rating was below 50% for most of 2012. His approval rating ended up higher near the end of his second term, but re-election was anything but guaranteed. 

I got 49 out of 50 states correct in 2012. The only state I missed was Florida (had it going to Romney) and that was razor close. That election was so stupid with all the nonsense about skewed polls and people thinking Romney had a chance. That was always nonsense. People are stupid.

Florida is like Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina (now Iowa). A Dem can absolutely win those states, but it doesn't mean shit in getting them to 270. If you win any of those states its going to be a 350-190 type election for the Dems. 

Colorado, Nevada and Virginia are now clearly blue states that I don't think the GOP has the slightest chance of winning anymore. Anyone who doesn't understand that doesn't understand politics in the modern age.  Arizona is probably going to join them for good this cycle, but might wait until 2024 to make that fully happen.  

Missouri is now a red state, forever more.  Ohio likely has joined them and we just didn't realize it yet in 2016.  Iowa and Wisconsin are on their way to that but like AZ heading blue maybe not quite finalized but well on their way.

For the future (next couple decades) I think Texas, NC, GA, Florida, MI, MN are the swing states. 

PA is a blue state.

GOP pretty much has to run those swing states to have any chance.  I just did my best case GOP map for 2032 and it ended up 269-269. Of course, it wouldn't still be that way as electoral votes would change with 2 census between now and then, but I put the entire north east in the dem column, AZ, NC and PA in the Dem Column, and MN, WI and MI in the GOP column.  That's pretty much best case scenario as I see it. The Dems are going to have to work extremely hard to fuck up winning the presidency for the foreseeable future with how much demographics are working against the GOP and how much Trump has damaged their brand with non sociopaths.  

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

28 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Always was hyperbole, but my point was that Democrats - Clinton, Guillum, Nelson, etc and on down the line back to Al Gore - find ways to lose the state.

As an aside, Obama was in a pretty strong position as an incumbent. Historically a high 40s approval rating has meant a very good chance of winning. He was also better in swing states than he was nationally - sort of the opposite of a Hillary Clinton. The polls were closeish but I don't recall there being much doubt about that election by November.

Not from anyone who wasn't derping around talking about unskewing the polls. 

[Snake Diggity 4698]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I got 49 out of 50 states correct in 2012. The only state I missed was Florida (had it going to Romney) and that was razor close. That election was so stupid with all the nonsense about skewed polls and people thinking Romney had a chance. That was always nonsense. People are stupid.

Florida is like Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina (now Iowa). A Dem can absolutely win those states, but it doesn't mean shit in getting them to 270. If you win any of those states its going to be a 350-190 type election for the Dems. 

Colorado, Nevada and Virginia are now clearly blue states that I don't think the GOP has the slightest chance of winning anymore. Anyone who doesn't understand that doesn't understand politics in the modern age.  Arizona is probably going to join them for good this cycle, but might wait until 2024 to make that fully happen.  

Missouri is now a red state, forever more.  Ohio likely has joined them and we just didn't realize it yet in 2016.  Iowa and Wisconsin are on their way to that but like AZ heading blue maybe not quite finalized but well on their way.

For the future (next couple decades) I think Texas, NC, GA, Florida, MI, MN are the swing states. 

PA is a blue state.

GOP pretty much has to run those swing states to have any chance.  I just did my best case GOP map for 2032 and it ended up 269-269. Of course, it wouldn't still be that way as electoral votes would change with 2 census between now and then, but I put the entire north east in the dem column, AZ, NC and PA in the Dem Column, and MN, WI and MI in the GOP column.  That's pretty much best case scenario as I see it. The Dems are going to have to work extremely hard to fuck up winning the presidency for the foreseeable future with how much demographics are working against the GOP and how much Trump has damaged their brand with non sociopaths.  

FL is a crapshoot so best to write it off to Trump.

I think it would be foolish to have GA, TX, OH, or IA in play.  They’re all red.

Assuming PA is blue, Biden has to win two of AZ, WI, MI, and NC.  
 

This is going to be a close election.

Down the road, I agree Arizona will go blue and NC, FL, MI, and MN will be swing states.  I just don’t see TX or GA being blue for at least 8 more years.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

FL is a crapshoot so best to write it off to Trump.

I think it would be foolish to have GA, TX, OH, or IA in play.  They’re all red.

Assuming PA is blue, Biden has to win two of AZ, WI, MI, and NC.  
 

This is going to be a close election.

Down the road, I agree Arizona will go blue and NC, FL, MI, and MN will be swing states.  I just don’t see TX or GA being blue for at least 8 more years.

Yeah, that was best case for GOP in 2032 in my mind. 

Agree completely. Here's the thing though- you can put MI in the same column as PA as blue as shit- no way he's winning there again.  AZ is blue too I think, as is NC and FL I suspect.  I'm not positive Trump holds on to GA, TX, OH and IA all in play, but I'd more or less assume he does.  I've got it 335-203 Biden.   

[gmr548 16681]

I've completely flipped my read on this since 2018, but Pennsylvania is Trump's strongest of the three Midwestern states. His victories in MI and WI cam be directly attributed to decreased Democratic turnout from 2012. He ran essentially even with Romney in both states. If Democrats get the vote out in those states there's nothing the GOP can do. Except cheat, which appears to be the plan in WI. GOP actions there tell you they know they're not winning an unobstructed election.

Not so with PA. Democrats didn't have the turnout decline there that they experienced elsewhere. If the rural white working class surge narrative is true anywhere, it's PA. I agree long term it's blue because Philadelphia is driving all the growth, but it's a tossup in 2020 assuming the Trump cult shows up to vote. They didn't in 2018 and Democrats cleaned up. Have to think they will when their Lord and Savior is on the ballot.

[The Dog 44771]

TX being "in play" is due to the fool's gold of Beto's performance IMHO. Trump is as polarizing as Cruz so he's also underperforming here but should win TX handily. 

Michigan should be for Biden but Whitmer needs to not fuck up again. 

['stache 22117]

On 5/17/2020 at 12:37 PM, Hookah Horns said:

I will jizz in my pants if Biden wins TX. 

I’ll move back to Texas. Seriously, I’ll quit my job and put the house on the market. Dallas or Austin. I’ll be back. I told my wife the same thing when Hilary looked like a small possibility. Said the same when I though Beto could beat Cruz but was really disappointed with that result.

[Biff Tannen 46061]

5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I’ll move back to Texas. Seriously, I’ll quit my job and put the house on the market. Dallas or Austin. I’ll be back. I told my wife the same thing when Hilary looked like a small possibility. Said the same when I though Beto could beat Cruz but was really disappointed with that result.

You'd still have to deal with the State govt, which I don't think will be blue for a long ass time.

['stache 22117]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

You'd still have to deal with the State govt, which I don't think will be blue for a long ass time.

At least your state republicans are willing to pay teachers a living wage. Our state legislature is literally a bunch of mouthbreathers. And we have 70% trumpers. I found a nice little bubble in the middle of Tulsa where I can associate with several normal people, but the trumper element can't be avoided altogether here.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

The more resources Trump has to spend in states that were comfortably red in 2016, the better. 

 

[gmr548 16681]

TX being "in play" is due to the fool's gold of Beto's performance IMHO. Trump is as polarizing as Cruz so he's also underperforming here but should win TX handily. 
Michigan should be for Biden but Whitmer needs to not fuck up again. 

Yeah, TX isn't happening this cycle. It's a hugely expensive state to advertise in though. Making the GOP invest resources here is a strategic victory on its own.

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

58 minutes ago, The Dog said:

TX being "in play" is due to the fool's gold of Beto's performance IMHO. Trump is as polarizing as Cruz so he's also underperforming here but should win TX handily. 

Michigan should be for Biden but Whitmer needs to not fuck up again. 

Trump is weaker in Texas than Cruz, because Cruz overperforms statewide Republicans with hispanics. I think Trump will win also, but he and Cornyn losing is absolutely a double digit probability at this point. 

[Message Board User 12405]

4 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Demmings for VP.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

10 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Trump is weaker in Texas than Cruz, because Cruz overperforms statewide Republicans with hispanics. I think Trump will win also, but he and Cornyn losing is absolutely a double digit probability at this point. 

AND Cornyn?  Against a candidate with low name ID and not a lot of time to campaign after the primaries in what- June?  I know that people are not splitting tickets near as much, but I would think there would be more Biden/3rd party voters pulling the lever for Cornyn than there would Trump voters voting for whoever comes out of the Dem primary.  My guess is Trump runs ahead of Cruz and Cornyn runs a couple points ahead of Trump. Cornyn/Whoever feels more to me like the governor race in 2018. 

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Texas has a chance to flip the State House this year. No chance at flipping the state senate though they will likely gain 1 in west Texas SD19, but will be interesting to look at Jane Nelson in Fort Worth Area as she has really never had to run a general election campaign as well. State senate 18 pisses me off as it’s my home district and should be competitive, but is not.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[Revolution512 1512]

That’s a road you probably shouldn’t go down, Joe

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

Trump is giving billions of our grandkids tax money to corporations with virtually no plan to ensure that it doesn’t end up in the pockets of those in the c suite. Seems like a good message to be hitting on right now.

[Message Board User 12405]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Setting yourself up for massive disappointment.

Don't do this to yourself, Hugo.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

I refuse to get my hopes up.  A girl can dream tho.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[henrygandorf 29219]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I refuse to get my hopes up.  A girl can dream tho.

fuck getting hopes up.  come january 21st, i expect warren to operate biden like a fucking ventriloquist dummy.