2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Horn Dog 9,671]

16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

With almost no undecided voters and almost nothing that could move decided voters off their current preference and a record that is what it is. That’s really awful shape. 

 

[SydneyCarton 47,836]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Trump has to win Florida to have even a chance of winning the election. Biden doesn't need it. 

I find this attitude terrifying. I get it logically. But every state needs to be attacked like he has to have it. And at this point Biden has the money. Bloomberg's money. His money. SPEND ALL OF IT. 

[Pig Bellmont 8,691]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Y'all know Trump's going to win Florida, and thus win the election, right?

You’re wrong 

[Brisketexan 104,537]

He’s basically a coin flip to win FL, and if he does, he’s a coin flip to win the election, databoy

Exactly. All the talk about how he’s toast, how nobody with under 50% popular vote polling can win, all that shit...meaningless.

This is a tossup election. And cheaters win toss ups.

[Red Five 40,627]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I find this attitude terrifying. I get it logically. But every state needs to be attacked like he has to have it. And at this point Biden has the money. Bloomberg's money. His money. SPEND ALL OF IT. 

I didn't phrase that well. Of course Biden "needs" every state, but Trump literally must have Florida in order to have a chance of winning, mathematically. 

[Storm the Field 5,271]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

He's definitely not in horrible shape. (1) Biden leads by ~4% in Pennsylvania and Michigan. (2) On this date in 2016, Hillary was ahead by 6.2% in Pennsylvania.

 

1. There hasn't been a poll of Michigan less than Biden +5 in weeks. You're probably looking at RCP which excludes several recent polls while including a garbage Trafalgar poll from 3 weeks ago, dragging down the average.

Current 538 numbers:

MI +7.4 polls, 87% to win

PA +4.8 polls, 75% to win

2. This point in 2016 is when Clinton's numbers started tanking and alarm bells should have sounded. She was polling at 45% nationally vs. Trump's 44% (vs ~49% to ~43% now). PA lead dropped several points a week later. 

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

Less than two weeks before the first debate. Right wing talking points are that Biden will not debate, cannot debate (mental issues plus the teleprompter talking point). Nancy Pelosi was reported as saying Biden should not debate Trump as it "would legitimize the conversation."

Moderators: Chris Wallace of Fox News will be on board for September 29 in Cleveland

Steve Scully of C-SPAN will moderate October 15 in Miami

NBC's Kristen Welker will be in Nashville on October 22

For the VP debate, Susan Page of USA Today will moderate in Salt Lake City October 7.

So, one Presidential debate and then the VPs go at it, followed by two more. Given that Fox goes first, this could be hairy.

As of right now, however, all systems are go. I'm looking for more crazy GOP talking points as the days countdown to September 29.

 

[The Dog 43,785]

13 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I didn't phrase that well. Of course Biden "needs" every state, but Trump literally must have Florida in order to have a chance of winning, mathematically. 

I mean there are plausible scenarios where Biden wins Florida but still loses. This is perfectly plausible (but unlikely based on current polling):

 But notice that Trump would have to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina to do it. Any of those flip to Biden and it's Biden who wins.

[Gap03 3,264]

With MI, MN and WI all trending away from Trump (D+7 or better in each) and Biden's polling average above 50% in each, it seems increasingly unlikely that he wins any of those states.  That means that Trump HAS to win FL and PA - AZ won't help.  I agree that you just can't rely on FL, with DeSantis and his SOS, no matter what the polls say.  It really boils down to PA.  Marist (A+ poll) had Biden up +9 among likely voters, and the 538 polling average has had Biden at 50% +/- 1% since June, so I feel pretty good about that.  If there are going to be shenanigans by Barr and co., they're going to be aimed at PA voters because the state officials in PA aren't going to be helping Trump. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

6 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

1. There hasn't been a poll of Michigan less than Biden +5 in weeks. You're probably looking at RCP which excludes several recent polls while including a garbage Trafalgar poll from 3 weeks ago, dragging down the average.

Current 538 numbers:

MI +7.4 polls, 87% to win

PA +4.8 polls, 75% to win

2. This point in 2016 is when Clinton's numbers started tanking and alarm bells should have sounded. She was polling at 45% nationally vs. Trump's 44% (vs ~49% to ~43% now). PA lead dropped several points a week later. 

 

Her PA lead dropped, then rebounded even higher until literally days before the election. She was over +8 at one point in late October.

I get that polls are much more stable this time around. But my point is let's not starting sucking our own dicks yet. Trump outperformed the election day RCP average by 2.8%. If we assume that's a very real possibility once again (I do), then he's right within striking distance. Especially when he and Barr pull whatever nonsense they're going to try.

Biden is clearly the favorite, but by no means is he safe. He's one October surprise from being in danger. There is a lot more risk than most of you want to admit.

Edited September 17, 2020 by BradInATX

[SydneyCarton 47,836]

17 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I didn't phrase that well. Of course Biden "needs" every state, but Trump literally must have Florida in order to have a chance of winning, mathematically. 

Oh, I know what you meant man. I'm just terrified of the whole "Hillary is going to win" taken for granted mentality. Although the follow up post that if he wins Florida it's a coin flip is also terrifying AF for me. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I mean there are plausible scenarios where Biden wins Florida but still loses. This is perfectly plausible (but unlikely based on current polling):

 But notice that Trump would have to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina to do it. Any of those flip to Biden and it's Biden who wins.

If Biden wins Florida he's not going to lose any of WI/MI/PA.

[Wulaw Horn 18,968]

24 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I find this attitude terrifying. I get it logically. But every state needs to be attacked like he has to have it. And at this point Biden has the money. Bloomberg's money. His money. SPEND ALL OF IT. 

He will. But that doesn’t change the calculus. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,968]

Just now, BradInATX said:

If Biden wins Florida he's not going to lose any of WI/MI/PA.

True. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Oh, I know what you meant man. I'm just terrified of the whole "Hillary is going to win" taken for granted mentality. Although the follow up post that if he wins Florida it's a coin flip is also terrifying AF for me. 

It shouldn't be terrifying. There are lots scenarios to be fearful of between now and Nov 3, but a "Biden wins FL but loses the entire rust belt" scenario is not one of them. Zero percent chance that happens. Literally zero.

[Storm the Field 5,271]

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Y'all know Trump's going to win Florida, and thus win the election, right?

Not really true. 

Scenario 1: Trump wins FL, but Biden picks up WI, MI, PA & AZ, all of which seem more likely than not at this point, Biden wins by 40.

Scenario 2: Same as Scenario 1 but Biden fails to grab one of WI, MI, or AZ, Biden still wins by 10-15.

Secnario 3: Same as Scenario 1 but Biden fails to grab PA, but picks up ME-2 or NE-2, Biden wins a nailbiter.

 

[The Dog 43,785]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Oh, I know what you meant man. I'm just terrified of the whole "Hillary is going to win" taken for granted mentality. Although the follow up post that if he wins Florida it's a coin flip is also terrifying AF for me. 

Scott Rasmussen addressed this back in April. Thought it was a good take: https://scottrasmussen.com/the-polls-werent-wrong-in-2016-but-the-analysis-of-the-polls-was-horrible/

 

[SydneyCarton 47,836]

5 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

With MI, MN and WI all trending away from Trump (D+7 or better in each) and Biden's polling average above 50% in each, it seems increasingly unlikely that he wins any of those states.  That means that Trump HAS to win FL and PA - AZ won't help.  I agree that you just can't rely on FL, with DeSantis and his SOS, no matter what the polls say.  It really boils down to PA.  Marist (A+ poll) had Biden up +9 among likely voters, and the 538 polling average has had Biden at 50% +/- 1% since June, so I feel pretty good about that.  If there are going to be shenanigans by Barr and co., they're going to be aimed at PA voters because the state officials in PA aren't going to be helping Trump. 

 

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Her PA lead dropped, then rebounded even higher until literally days before the election. She was over +8 at one point in late October.

I get that polls are much more stable this time around. But my point is let's not starting sucking our own dicks yet. Trump outperformed the election day RCP average by 2.8%. If we assume that's a very real possibility once again (I do), then he's right within striking distance. Especially when he and Barr pull whatever nonsense they're going to try.

Biden is clearly the favorite, but by no means is he safe. He's one October surprise from being in danger. There is a lot more risk than most of you want to admit.

These two posts basically sum up where I'm at. The first one because it's basically completely fucking insane that when we boil it all down, we're down to one pivotal state for both parties that is going to determine this election. One state. It blows my mind. And it's a state that is definitely in play 

[SydneyCarton 47,836]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

It shouldn't be terrifying. There are lots scenarios to be fearful of between now and Nov 3, but a "Biden wins FL but loses the entire rust belt" scenario is not one of them. Zero percent chance that happens. Literally zero.

You're responding to a different one of my posts, or someone else's. My terrifying concept is that trump wins Florida, which then makes the election basically a coin flip. And you can see my most recent post discussing that it's basically PA for all the marbles. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

You're responding to a different one of my posts, or someone else's. My terrifying concept is that trump wins Florida, which then makes the election basically a coin flip. And you can see my most recent post discussing that it's basically PA for all the marbles. 

Yeah, I misunderstood what you were saying. Surlying on a conference call can go sideways sometimes.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

9 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Secnario 3: Same as Scenario 1 but Biden fails to grab PA, but picks up ME-2 or NE-2, Biden wins a nailbiter.

 

Sobato just moved NE2 to lean D, which would be v v cool.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-post-labor-day-sprint-part-two-the-electoral-college/

 

[workswithseed 2,033]

46 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Exactly. All the talk about how he’s toast, how nobody with under 50% popular vote polling can win, all that shit...meaningless.

This is a tossup election. And cheaters win toss ups.

I guess ill never gamble with you on coin flips ever.

[formermav43 4,599]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Don’t know how old you are but I’m 42 (I think former is at least that old) and when I/we were kids we were taught that all 3, mean, median and mode could be interchangably used to mean “average” and that when someone said average they should further clarify what they meant. 
As in all three of these sentences could be considered correct:

the average of 3,5, 5, 5 and 12 is 6 mean

the average of that above sentence is 5 (median) 

the average house in my neighborhood is pink or, the average kid at my kids school is a kindergartner if pink houses are most common or kindergarten has the highest enrollment (mode). 

(I’m actually 36, but it’s so close that I was compelled to use it.)

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, workswithseed said:

I guess ill never gamble with you on coin flips ever.

It's good practice in general not to gamble with  lawyers. Or really do anything involving money with them.

[Wulaw Horn 18,968]

9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Sobato just moved NE2 to lean D, which would be v v cool.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-post-labor-day-sprint-part-two-the-electoral-college/

 

Look- 269 v 269 would be really really really bad for the country. I can't even stress how much this would bum me out.  In that scenario you could see NC, Florida and AZ all moving together and Trump carrying those, but that's best case scenario.  Don't see him winning Wiscky.  So, Trump's upside, in my mind is 259 electoral votes.   I still see this as Biden at like 330 ish to trump at 200 ish.  Which makes it look basically exactly like the Clinton 2 terms and the Obama 2 terms.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Look- 269 v 269 would be really really really bad for the country. I can't even stress how much this would bum me out.  In that scenario you could see NC, Florida and AZ all moving together and Trump carrying those, but that's best case scenario.  Don't see him winning Wiscky.  So, Trump's upside, in my mind is 259 electoral votes.   I still see this as Biden at like 330 ish to trump at 200 ish.  Which makes it look basically exactly like the Clinton 2 terms and the Obama 2 terms.  

No one wants 269-269.  I think a blue NE2 is nice for symbolic reasons.  It's nice to see a little blue in the heartland.  I'd like to think we can come back from the sort of polarization we have now, and that little stripe of blue in the middle of the country would be a nice beachhead.

As a practical matter, there are a few scenarios where NE2 allows things to go sideways and still have a Biden presidency.  NE2+ME2 allows you to take the consensus map from 270 to Win, give Trump all the toss up states, and then still allow for ten EVs of error (WI, MN, or NV+NH). 

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

 

[Storm the Field 5,271]

^^^^

Trump won this district (Plano/Frisco/McKinney) by 14 in '16. Romney won by almost 30 in '12. 

DEM internal poll, so probably overly optimistic, but if Trump's only winning suburban Collin County by 5-8 that's a noticeable trend towards purple. Would make some sense given that I'd imagine there is a fairly high % of whites w/ college degrees in this district, which is the demographic where Trump has been struggling bigly.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Storm the Field

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

^^^^

Trump won this district (Plano/Frisco/McKinney) by 14 in '16. Romney won by almost 30 in '12. 

DEM internal poll, so probably overly optimistic, but if Trump's only winning suburban Collin County by 5-8 that's a noticeable trend towards purple. Would make some sense given that I'd imagine there is a fairly high % of whites w/ college degrees in this district, which is the demographic where Trump has been struggling bigly.

collin is very educated, but it is also aggies and sooners.

[Helobious 9,480]

AZ, OH, and FL are all locks for Trump. It’s like when an FCS team is tied at halftime with Bama. Yeah the stats so one thing but don’t kid yourself. Have some common sense, you know what will happen in the 2nd half. Biden should focus all his energy on stealing WI, PA, MI, and MN. It’s his only chance.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Probably should duck.  NC has the most effective and deliberate voter suppression efforts in the country.  That should always be your suspicion there. 

I thought they were number 2 behind Georgia? 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

Just now, Helobious said:

AZ, OH, and FL are all locks for Trump. It’s like when an FCS team is tied at halftime with Bama. Yeah the stats so one thing but don’t kid yourself. Have some common sense, you know what will happen in the 2nd half. Biden should focus all his energy on stealing WI, PA, MI, and MN. It’s his only chance.

Hot take! LOL. 

[thepop 4,409]

Except it's not tied at the half. It's more like trailing going into the 4th Quarter. And one FCS team (Arizona) has a star QB called Mark Kelly.

Edited September 17, 2020 by thepop

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

And the other team insists on using a double eagle defense, despite the OLBs +/- has been trending negative for the last 60 plays, and couldn't cover the B gap on even his best day and the refs started calling interference but mixing up 15 yard penalties with spot fouls and wait who was the Maricopa County pollster in this analogy?

[The Dog 43,785]

So we now have recent polls from three heavily R districts (TX-3, TX-21, and TX-31) that show Trump and Biden basically in a dead heat in those districts. TX-3 is Biden +3, TX-21 is Biden +2, and TX-31 is Trump +1. All three districts are rated as R +10 or higher by the Cook Political Report. 

Very interesting. Wish there was more Texas polling so we could see how real this is.

Edited September 17, 2020 by The Dog

[gmr548 16,482]

CQR Research (B-rated by 538)
July 5th:
Eastman 50 to Bacon 49
Biden 51 to Trump 44. 
DCCC targeting (B/C)
May 10, 12
Eastman 48 to Bacon 47
Biden 52 to Trump 41
Sure, the polling is not extensive, but even skewed polling should be sufficient to understand that Biden is running ahead of Eastman in the district. 
But, please, continue to impress with your in depth analysis of "well, the Democrat House candidate didn't win in 2018, so...."

I mean, those are both partisan polls.I'm not saying Biden can't win there. I'm saying we really have no idea because there's zero reliable data.

[Storm the Field 5,271]

17 minutes ago, Helobious said:

AZ, OH, and FL are all locks for Trump. It’s like when an FCS team is tied at halftime with Bama. Yeah the stats so one thing but don’t kid yourself. Have some common sense, you know what will happen in the 2nd half. Biden should focus all his energy on stealing WI, PA, MI, and MN. It’s his only chance.

Not even the Trump-obsessed betting markets lump those 3 together. Current odds:

AZ: Biden 63%

FL: Biden 53%

OH: Trump 65%

 

[Irieguy 1,059]

28 minutes ago, Helobious said:

AZ, OH, and FL are all locks for Trump. It’s like when an FCS team is tied at halftime with Bama. Yeah the stats so one thing but don’t kid yourself. Have some common sense, you know what will happen in the 2nd half. Biden should focus all his energy on stealing WI, PA, MI, and MN. It’s his only chance.

Bama is never tied at halftime with a FCS team. 🙄. Also we are in the 4th quarter. 

[Helobious 9,480]

4 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

Bama is never tied at halftime with a FCS team. 🙄. Also we are in the 4th quarter. 

Citadel had them 10-10 at halftime 2 years ago.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

Citadel had them 10-10 at halftime 2 years ago.

Uh oh. Looks like he got ya! 

[Wulaw Horn 18,968]

20 minutes ago, The Dog said:

So we now have recent polls from three heavily R districts (TX-3, TX-21, and TX-31) that show Trump and Biden basically in a dead heat in those districts. TX-3 is Biden +3, TX-21 is Biden +2, and TX-31 is Trump +1. All three districts are rated as R +10 or higher by the Cook Political Report. 

Very interesting. Wish there was more Texas polling so we could see how real this is.

And something other than Texas internals. But, basically if those are right Biden's probably going to win Texas.  Note, I don't expect Biden to win Texas and I don't think those polls are correct- but I'm not going to dismiss them out of hand.  

[Ghost of LL 15,469]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And something other than Texas internals. But, basically if those are right Biden's probably going to win Texas.  Note, I don't expect Biden to win Texas and I don't think those polls are correct- but I'm not going to dismiss them out of hand.  

Yeah.  The primary point of releasing an internal is to drive fundraising.  So while I wouldn't say they're completely false, there is a motive for the poll to be skewed.

That being said, I would predict TX03 to be single digits.  It's not going to provide the huge buffer to the Republicans that it did so in previous elections.  So the real question I have is how big is the D margin going to be in Dallas County.  Turnout is key there--Biden needs to run up the score.

[thepop 4,409]

 

 

Edited September 17, 2020 by thepop

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

To be fair,  where are the republicans gonna find a black woman willing to stand in for a debate prep with mother pence. 

[thepop 4,409]

"Ballots that arrive by the new deadline with missing or illegible postmarks would still be counted."

 

I don't understand this part though. How does that make sense?

[SaucyJack 3,487]

Diamond or Silk?

[tantric superman 4,667]

3 minutes ago, thepop said:

"Ballots that arrive by the new deadline with missing or illegible postmarks would still be counted."

 

I don't understand this part though. How does that make sense?

If it arrives by the new deadline it is assumed that it was mailed in time. 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

4 minutes ago, thepop said:

"Ballots that arrive by the new deadline with missing or illegible postmarks would still be counted."

 

I don't understand this part though. How does that make sense?

if it gets there by deadline, it is counted.  postmarks won't matter.

 

in contrast to

 

if it gets there after the deadline, it may be counted anyway based on what the postmark says.

[thepop 4,409]

Just now, tantric superman said:

If it arrives by the new deadline it is assumed that it was mailed in time. 

 

I'm all for it, but to play devils advocate, how can you assume that?