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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9882

Posted
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40 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

What? It 100 percent is. It's 25 miles south. It's population hasn't doubled the past two decades because it's a destination.Maybe not a suburb in a bedroom community sense but Ellis County is DFW MSA. Those distribution centers and such aren't there because of Waxahachie on its own. It's not growing rapidly because it's some little slice of paradise.

There’s a term for both communities.

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I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

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This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Pancho

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On 9/16/2020 at 8:36 AM, The Dog said:

Probably - North Carolina's mail in ballots could be sent in starting last week IIRC.

GoLL alluded to it, but both that and early voting likely being higher should help with the accuracy of likely voter polls. You'll have exit polling data in them now.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47809

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Debates don't matter. They don't change minds in this climate. Clinton won each debate with Trump by double digit margins. Wasn't even close. Didn't remotely matter. If someone wants to vote Trump despite him spewing drivel, they'll find a way to justify it. The inverse is true with Biden. He could stutter every word and the 52 percent of the country that has consistently disapproved of Trump isn't going to give a fuck.

Just look at zork right below you. Anyone can cherry pick to support what they want to think.

I agree in general, but not entirely. I think there truly is a chunk of, call it 5-10%, that will watch these debates and have a chance to be converted to Biden. To see he's not a doddering idiot. TO see he's not senile. I truly think there's an information bubble many of these people live in that they repeat and rehash without actually viewing themselves outside of cut up internet clips and OAN and Fox News shit. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45513

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I don't know, we've seen over and over again that people will seize any opportunity to continue supporting Trump, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.  Biden will no doubt have a word stumble or a pregnant pause and FOX will run that (and that alone) on an endless loop.  Even those who actually paid attention to the whole debate will let that one loop dictate their takeaway.  It's not called "cultish" behavior for no good reason.

Besides that, I don't think 5%-10% of the country is undecided.  There is no viable 3rd candidate and the entire country is pretty much bought in, one way or the other.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I agree in general, but not entirely. I think there truly is a chunk of, call it 5-10%, that will watch these debates and have a chance to be converted to Biden. To see he's not a doddering idiot. TO see he's not senile. I truly think there's an information bubble many of these people live in that they repeat and rehash without actually viewing themselves outside of cut up internet clips and OAN and Fox News shit. 

I think it’s a smaller number than that.  Maybe 1% of voters might have their vote for President affected by a debate.  There’s too much ideological difference between the 2 candidates (especially this year) for it to be bigger than that.  Of course, if something crazy happened like Biden passing out or Trump saying the N word, it would have a bigger effect.

I do think the primary debates are MUCH more important.  I know for me personally the Democratic primary this year had a big impact on how I viewed the candidates.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104465

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1 minute ago, Pancho said:

It's just 1 example, but I've hinted at before at the possibility of a shy/silent Biden voter in their Trumpy city/neighborhood. 

 

I think there are both, shy Biden voters and shy Trump voters.  But the reasons why are really different.

Shy Trump voters -- worried about being socially shamed for supporting an evil shitbag.

Shy Biden voters -- worried about actual violence/retaliatory action that could be taken against them or their family.

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JimmyJames

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13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think there are both, shy Biden voters and shy Trump voters.  But the reasons why are really different.

Shy Trump voters -- worried about being socially shamed for supporting an evil shitbag.

Shy Biden voters -- worried about actual violence/retaliatory action that could be taken against them or their family.

I agree with this. My neighborhood is usually about 50/50 and I’ve seen a grand total of one Biden sign and zero trump signs so far and the Biden sign was almost hidden behind a tree. Meanwhile multiple signs for the school funding and some local politicians. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11667

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Just now, JimmyJames said:

I agree with this. My neighborhood is usually about 50/50 and I’ve seen a grand total of one Biden sign and zero trump signs so far and the Biden sign was almost hidden behind a tree. Meanwhile multiple signs for the school funding and some local politicians. 

speaks well of your neighborhood.  people get a sense that politics is alienating right now.

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27375

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Debates don't matter. They don't change minds in this climate. Clinton won each debate with Trump by double digit margins. Wasn't even close. Didn't remotely matter. If someone wants to vote Trump despite him spewing drivel, they'll find a way to justify it. The inverse is true with Biden. He could stutter every word and the 52 percent of the country that has consistently disapproved of Trump isn't going to give a fuck.

Just look at zork right below you. Anyone can cherry pick to support what they want to think.

All you have to do is change a few minds in the right locations. Get 20k people to get off their asses in philly and vote or discourage some folks in that area that would have held their noses and voted for trump but just decide to stay home and that is huge. 
 

The criticism I have seen re the town hall is the questions were teed up softballs from trump haters (as opposed to trumps town hall which “an ambush”). Get them up on the stage together and let everyone see for themselves. 

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6531

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1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

speaks well of your neighborhood.  people get a sense that politics is alienating right now.

My neighborhood is a shit show when it comes to this.  The mod of our neighborhood Facebook page had to write a long post telling everyone to get their political shit off the page or he will ban them.  I have some Republican county chair in my neighborhood that keeps posting he has given out 200 Trump signs so far and he has hundreds more to give out for all those people that support our great president.  I definitely see more Trump signs in my hood but if he really gave out 200 they are hiding them somewhere cause I dont see that many.  The weird thing about this Republican chair is when I looked at his other posts on the neighborhood Facebook page he apparently manages a solar panel company and is pitching my neighborhood about the virtues of solar energy and he can help everyone get solar panels to help the environment.  Is it not strange to back the Republican party that hard and yet you are a champion of the environment?  Or he is just a racist and is making some money while he doesn't really believe in solar energy.   

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Ghost of LL

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33 minutes ago, Pancho said:

It's just 1 example, but I've hinted at before at the possibility of a shy/silent Biden voter in their Trumpy city/neighborhood. 

 

There's been a lot of speculation about that over the past several weeks.  I'm not sure I'm convinced, but I think it's definitely plausible.

30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think there are both, shy Biden voters and shy Trump voters.  But the reasons why are really different.

Shy Trump voters -- worried about being socially shamed for supporting an evil shitbag.

Shy Biden voters -- worried about actual violence/retaliatory action that could be taken against them or their family.

There is absolutely no evidence of shy Trump voters existing in any numbers so as to impact the polling.  And the concept of a shy Trump voter goes against every piece of observational evidence we have about Trump voters.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5270

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Polling thoughts this morning:

I think it's past time to take AZ out of the toss-up column and at least consider it "Lean D."

Another MI +8 poll out this morning. MI is probably closer to "Likely D" than "Lean D." It's been weeks since anything came out less than +5. 538 and Economist both have it at 88% Biden.

Clinton won Maine by just 3 points in 2016, and lost ME-2 by 10. NTY polls out today show Biden +16 in ME and +2 in ME-2. There are scenarios where ME-2 could be the deciding vote. This poll seems to be pretty good evidence that Trump really is losing ground with older white voters given that ME is oldest, whitest state in the nation. Would also seem to bode well for NH not being a nail-biter this time around. 

Still amazing how abruptly VA went from red-->fuschia-->magenta-->blue over the last 30 years. It's not even on anyone's radar this cycles. Even the betting markets have written this one off. 

Biden up to 77% (538) and 86% (Economist) based on strong string of state polls lately.

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Brisketexan

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

There's been a lot of speculation about that over the past several weeks.  I'm not sure I'm convinced, but I think it's definitely plausible.

There is absolutely no evidence of shy Trump voters existing in any numbers so as to impact the polling.  And the concept of a shy Trump voter goes against every piece of observational evidence we have about Trump voters.

Disagree.  Most Trump voters are loud nutbars.  But there's a sizable portion that is your neighbors....people who would be embarrassed for their neighbors to find out they support a racist shitbag, because hey, they just like lower taxes.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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When one  controls so much: the propaganda networks, the courts, the senate, dismantled the trustworthy institutions, buys votes with tax dollars, campaigns with tax dollars, then pretty soon no one bats an eye when that one man has his apparatus not even bother to hide their source material. Just another ho hum bit of news.

 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Yup.  If thats the map we are fucked.   OH and GA aint going blue so then its all up to NC and their NC repub shannanigans. 

 

I like the consensus map better that was posted this morning (Democratic 278 Republican 169). I find it much more seductive and if it tried to pick me up in a bar I might down my gin & tonic and say "where tf you been?"

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gmr548

gmr548 16463

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Disagree.  Most Trump voters are loud nutbars.  But there's a sizable portion that is your neighbors....people who would be embarrassed for their neighbors to find out they support a racist shitbag, because hey, they just like lower taxes.
Yep. Trump will get 25-30 percent of the vote in Travis County. They don't all live in Lakeway. They just keep their heads down at work and socially (and circle jerk on the DT board) because they're so vastly outnumbered. Same as a Democrat in Waco or Midland.

Now, do they exist in numbers so vast that they make polling ubreliaable? Probably not.
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gmr548

gmr548 16463

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I mean, to me, that's the map. 
 
Yeah.....and it's fucking terrifying.
PA doesn't lean Republican. Tossup is fair, but lean R is too pessimistic.

There are a few plausible tie scenarios this year though. I'm kind of thinking 2020 has just been building for this moment.
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47809

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2 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Why do you assume Pennsylvania is going red? Biden isn't running away with it like he is in the other swing states, but if MI and WI go red, it's likely PA does as well. 

It just feels like it's trending that way, along with Florida. It's all anecdotal, lots of different articles talking about unshakable his support is in certain counties. I think it's citizens know it is an important state and will get out and vote in unheard of numbers, but I don't know if blue matches the enthusiasm of red. And while yesterdays news from their courts is great, goddamn if it isn't setting up the scenario where one state decides and the calls for fraud will be overwhelming. Even if it goes blue it feels like civil unrest. 

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LurkingHorn

LurkingHorn 1044

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6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It just feels like it's trending that way, along with Florida. It's all anecdotal, lots of different articles talking about unshakable his support is in certain counties. I think it's citizens know it is an important state and will get out and vote in unheard of numbers, but I don't know if blue matches the enthusiasm of red. And while yesterdays news from their courts is great, goddamn if it isn't setting up the scenario where one state decides and the calls for fraud will be overwhelming. Even if it goes blue it feels like civil unrest. 

Trump won PA by a whopping 44k votes in 2016 when the Dems put a terrible candidate on the ballot and there were many more 3rd party candidates taking away votes. For perspective, Obama won PA by 287k votes in 2012. The result is probably going to fall somewhere in between those two numbers and, unless you think Trump has expanded his base, I think that really favors Biden. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11667

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19 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Yup.  If thats the map we are fucked.   OH and GA aint going blue so then its all up to NC and their NC repub shannanigans. 

Don't forget about the odd votes in NE and ME, which was the point of my post.  NE2 and ME2 win in that scenario too, so it's not all up to NC.  Frankly, I imagine both NE2 and ME2 end up more likely than any of OH, GA, NC anyway.

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8275

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It just feels like it's trending that way, along with Florida. It's all anecdotal, lots of different articles talking about unshakable his support is in certain counties. I think it's citizens know it is an important state and will get out and vote in unheard of numbers, but I don't know if blue matches the enthusiasm of red. And while yesterdays news from their courts is great, goddamn if it isn't setting up the scenario where one state decides and the calls for fraud will be overwhelming. Even if it goes blue it feels like civil unrest. 

PA has a D governor and Secy of State.  The Philly burbs are going Biden, but the question will be turnout on Nov. 3 and the mail-in vote.  

PA has no true early voting, only absentee.  

 If turnout is depressed for any reason (weather, COVID, whatever) in the Philly burbs, yikes.  If the mail-in vote tabulation is a shitshow, yikes.  

Bottom line is Biden could carry PA fairly easily with a heavy suburban turnout in Philly.  If not, it's much closer to a coin flip.  

Biden won't take PA for granted.  He's from there, has deep roots, and Delaware is also often a PA election surrogate.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11667

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Just now, LurkingHorn said:

Trump won PA by a whopping 44k votes in 2016 when the Dems put a terrible candidate on the ballot and there were many more 3rd party candidates taking away votes. For perspective, Obama won PA by 287k votes in 2012. The result is probably going to fall somewhere in between those two numbers and, unless you think Trump has expanded his base, I think that really favors Biden. 

I agree this is all academic, because turnout will absolutely murder Trump.  Every high turnout scenario he gets killed.  And there will ABSOLUTELY be high turnout this year.

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