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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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38 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah.  their model put a ton of weight on the fact that it is a long time until election. so as the weeks tick past and nothing moves, the likelihood of biden winning goes up even though polling doesn't change.  

Yes. We are on a a slow climb to 93% unless we invade Iran or Biden shoots somebody. It’s been discussed elsewhere that 538 did everything they could to keep the initial forecast from being 93% Biden. As we get closer those options go away. A model that has inputs showing Biden leading in all key states can only have one output. *unless you add an uncertainty factor. 
 

@wulawhorn is right about what the results will be. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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49 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah.  their model put a ton of weight on the fact that it is a long time until election. so as the weeks tick past and nothing moves, the likelihood of biden winning goes up even though polling doesn't change.  

So if we get to the VP debate and the polls are still the same. They probably aren’t moving then.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

So if we get to the VP debate and the polls are still the same. They probably aren’t moving then.

Not sure why you picked that event, but no. There will be some uncertainty factor until Election Day. The factor will just decrease over time. Yes, even after October 7th. 

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Fletch

Fletch 5798

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17 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Universally they care more about trolling people than any real policies. They take his 2016 win as permission to be an asshole in every day aspects of their lives. 

Pretty much. The only friends I have left in town are well documented on here. They can’t name a single policy of his other than “fake news” “silent majority” and my personal favorite “were things really that bad before the pandemic!?!?” Um.....then I explain to them how economics work and nope. Obama did jack shit, trump “saved the economy”, “Obama is easily one of our worst presidents ever”. Then when I get fucking pissed and throw facts back in their face they pull the “I don’t want to talk about politics anymore...”. These people are fucking pussies. It’s amazing. They call me a liberal extremist pussy and yeahhhhh that’s not the case. Don’t be afraid of these fucking people. They’ll yell and scream “fuck your feelings!” But when push comes to shove, I guarantee these fuckers will shit their pants at the sight of a pocket knife. So basically, let the obnoxious minority scream at us while we speak with our votes. God damn we better go scorched earth on every single mother fucker that hitched on to this insulting imbecile. Can we get dotard, jr, Eric and Jared in rikers general pop? Let’s go ahead and throw Barron in juvie then transfer him to federal once he’s 18. We can’t have him blossoming into the cocksucker mother fucker he’s destined to be.

edit: and of course they’re mostly tech grads(I have one aggy friend and he’s a 2percenter or whatever they call it. He’s in med school in Houston now). Tech fans have ALWAYS talked an ocean of shit but the second you fire back, they call us classless and all that shit. My favorite was the Kindle hit and how people like @slorch were bitching about. Hey slorch! You’re not the only tech grad who’s mission it is to prove they went to tech. So you got that goin for ya, which is nice. 

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1 hour ago, Fletch said:

. My favorite was the Kindle hit and how people like @slorch were bitching about.

 

 

What's funny is how many people remember my opinions from more than a decade ago.  I don't even know who the fuck you are, save for the troll posts in the past couple of months.  None of that has fuck-all to do with this thread, except for you having my name in your mouth.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

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7 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah.  their model put a ton of weight on the fact that it is a long time until election. so as the weeks tick past and nothing moves, the likelihood of biden winning goes up even though polling doesn't change.  

The next major 538 shift occurs when we’re at 25 days until the election, or 2.5 weeks from now. They basically keep increasing the weight of the polls in their model vs other fundamentals.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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26 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Not enough people talking about Georgia. Remove the voter suppression and Biden definitely wins. He still might. 

 

It really is a fascinating state.

 

all the people in power are racist white assholes. The suburbs in Georgia resemble the rest of the country, basically they have also rejected the GOP. Seemingly every young person who registers to vote now a days in Georgia is a minority. Tons of intelligent people moving in from other states for jobs. These people are turned off by Kemp and his racist GOP jargon.
 

the racists are doing everything they can to keep the state red, but it’s only a matter of time. I think they’re fucked by 2022 and definitely 2024 at the latest.

 

i say this as a white man.  Kemp and everyone around him is pure scum. Racist sons of bitches.

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Fletch

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4 hours ago, slorch said:

 

 

What's funny is how many people remember my opinions from more than a decade ago.  I don't even know who the fuck you are, save for the troll posts in the past couple of months.  None of that has fuck-all to do with this thread, except for you having my name in your mouth.

Been around awhile, just been more of a lurker and baseball board poster. It’s pretty easy to remember you. I mean “slorch’d” exists for a reason...

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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All along, from the time Trump announced his candidacy in 2015, I have assumed that at some point people would come to their senses.  In 2015-2016, I was convinced that there was zero chance all the rural folks who form the base of the GOP would fully rally behind a Manhattan rich boy draft dodger who has myriad bankruptcies and marital infidelities on his resume.  Then as it became apparent that was exactly what was happening, I assumed the power structure of the GOP would prevent him from actually getting the nomination.   Once he was nominated, I was certain that Clinton would win in a Reagan-Mondale fashion, that there was no way any moderates or independents would vote for someone so obviously racist, sexist, and unfit.  I was in utter disbelief when he won.
 

All that is to say, these encouraging poll numbers may be a sign of what we all have thought was inevitable.  It is possible that Biden is on track for 400 EV in a shining moment in American history where we roundly dismiss the ideology we’ve been subject to for the last 4 years.  But FUCK THAT.  None of those chickens will be counted.  Not now.  Not on Election Day.  Not even if Biden is sworn in.  Those chickens can be counted when Donald Trump is dead and when his legacy is as a universally reviled figure who represented the death rattle of the worst group of Americans in history.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47809

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37 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

All along, from the time Trump announced his candidacy in 2015, I have assumed that at some point people would come to their senses.  In 2015-2016, I was convinced that there was zero chance all the rural folks who form the base of the GOP would fully rally behind a Manhattan rich boy draft dodger who has myriad bankruptcies and marital infidelities on his resume.  Then as it became apparent that was exactly what was happening, I assumed the power structure of the GOP would prevent him from actually getting the nomination.   Once he was nominated, I was certain that Clinton would win in a Reagan-Mondale fashion, that there was no way any moderates or independents would vote for someone so obviously racist, sexist, and unfit.  I was in utter disbelief when he won.
 

All that is to say, these encouraging poll numbers may be a sign of what we all have thought was inevitable.  It is possible that Biden is on track for 400 EV in a shining moment in American history where we roundly dismiss the ideology we’ve been subject to for the last 4 years.  But FUCK THAT.  None of those chickens will be counted.  Not now.  Not on Election Day.  Not even if Biden is sworn in.  Those chickens can be counted when Donald Trump is dead and when his legacy is as a universally reviled figure who represented the death rattle of the worst group of Americans in history.

I hope these lines can be brought up during debates. 

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Voldemort86

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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

All along, from the time Trump announced his candidacy in 2015, I have assumed that at some point people would come to their senses.  In 2015-2016, I was convinced that there was zero chance all the rural folks who form the base of the GOP would fully rally behind a Manhattan rich boy draft dodger who has myriad bankruptcies and marital infidelities on his resume.  Then as it became apparent that was exactly what was happening, I assumed the power structure of the GOP would prevent him from actually getting the nomination.   Once he was nominated, I was certain that Clinton would win in a Reagan-Mondale fashion, that there was no way any moderates or independents would vote for someone so obviously racist, sexist, and unfit.  I was in utter disbelief when he won.
 

All that is to say, these encouraging poll numbers may be a sign of what we all have thought was inevitable.  It is possible that Biden is on track for 400 EV in a shining moment in American history where we roundly dismiss the ideology we’ve been subject to for the last 4 years.  But FUCK THAT.  None of those chickens will be counted.  Not now.  Not on Election Day.  Not even if Biden is sworn in.  Those chickens can be counted when Donald Trump is dead and when his legacy is as a universally reviled figure who represented the death rattle of the worst group of Americans in history.

I think it was a combination of the comey letter, Democrats ran an awful candidate, and some democrat fatigue after 8 years of Obama. Lots of people “ gave Trump a shot” who quickly reverted back to Democrat in the 2018 midterms. 
 

Trumps numbers with independents, people who hate both candidates, seniors, and whites are all down compared to 2016.

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Skipper

Skipper 6088

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So what is Biden's answer going to be at the debate (or otherwise) when he's asked if he supports packing the court in response to Trump's appointment?  That idea may be gaining within the D party but probably doesn't play well with moderates or anti-trump R's even if they do think this is BS by the Republicans.   Will be interesting.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45477

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7 minutes ago, Skipper said:

So what is Biden's answer going to be at the debate (or otherwise) when he's asked if he supports packing the court in response to Trump's appointment?  That idea may be gaining within the D party but probably doesn't play well with moderates or anti-trump R's even if they do think this is BS by the Republicans.   Will be interesting.

It's a good question.  He will downplay it.  Shit, he may honestly not want to, but I think the Ds will sway him in the end.

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Irwin F Fletcher

Irwin F Fletcher 3550

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Trump's campaign may be bankrupt, but as long as the media remains complicit, he has the bully pulpit, which costs exactly zero dollars per minute of campaiging.

This. Is Trump still popping up on Fox and Friends every Monday or Tuesday morning? It's about time the rest of the media just cuts him off at the knees and ignores any campaign rally from now until the election. It's easier said than done, because Trump knows how to push everyone's buttons with the crazy shit he says. It's understood he could actually shoot someone on 5th Ave and he wouldn't lose his base. The most effective way to combat Trump, don't give him any free air time on the news. 

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Skipper

Skipper 6088

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Just now, Biff Tannen said:

It's a good question.  He will downplay it.  Shit, he may honestly not want to, but I think the Ds will sway him in the end.

I think that's right but it will be interesting for sure.  But clearly at this point the R's have made it acceptable to precedent to lie when convenient .

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14953

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All along, from the time Trump announced his candidacy in 2015, I have assumed that at some point people would come to their senses.  In 2015-2016, I was convinced that there was zero chance all the rural folks who form the base of the GOP would fully rally behind a Manhattan rich boy draft dodger who has myriad bankruptcies and marital infidelities on his resume.  Then as it became apparent that was exactly what was happening, I assumed the power structure of the GOP would prevent him from actually getting the nomination.   Once he was nominated, I was certain that Clinton would win in a Reagan-Mondale fashion, that there was no way any moderates or independents would vote for someone so obviously racist, sexist, and unfit.  I was in utter disbelief when he won.
 
All that is to say, these encouraging poll numbers may be a sign of what we all have thought was inevitable.  It is possible that Biden is on track for 400 EV in a shining moment in American history where we roundly dismiss the ideology we’ve been subject to for the last 4 years.  But FUCK THAT.  None of those chickens will be counted.  Not now.  Not on Election Day.  Not even if Biden is sworn in.  Those chickens can be counted when Donald Trump is dead and when his legacy is as a universally reviled figure who represented the death rattle of the worst group of Americans in history.

I went through a similar “disbelief” stage where I couldn’t believe people still supported this idiot. But then I realized that most people are extremely uninformed and simplistic. They hear a few high level ideas and that becomes their identity. And in the case of Donald Trump that high level idea was that “he’s fighting for me and America”, with “me” being blue collar “patriot” white people (including rural farmers), rich people, conservative religious white people, executives, and racists, just enough to scratch out an electoral college win.

There are mountains of evidence that he has been an absolute disaster on every policy and has hurt many of his supporters, but they are just too uninformed to see it, instead focusing on symbolic things like him pushing back on people who call others racists. These symbolic actions are nonsense but cement his followers’ commitment. It’s really frustrating.
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NAVY

NAVY 6738

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2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

All along, from the time Trump announced his candidacy in 2015, I have assumed that at some point people would come to their senses.  In 2015-2016, I was convinced that there was zero chance all the rural folks who form the base of the GOP would fully rally behind a Manhattan rich boy draft dodger who has myriad bankruptcies and marital infidelities on his resume.  Then as it became apparent that was exactly what was happening, I assumed the power structure of the GOP would prevent him from actually getting the nomination.   Once he was nominated, I was certain that Clinton would win in a Reagan-Mondale fashion, that there was no way any moderates or independents would vote for someone so obviously racist, sexist, and unfit.  I was in utter disbelief when he won.
 

All that is to say, these encouraging poll numbers may be a sign of what we all have thought was inevitable.  It is possible that Biden is on track for 400 EV in a shining moment in American history where we roundly dismiss the ideology we’ve been subject to for the last 4 years.  But FUCK THAT.  None of those chickens will be counted.  Not now.  Not on Election Day.  Not even if Biden is sworn in.  Those chickens can be counted when Donald Trump is dead and when his legacy is as a universally reviled figure who represented the death rattle of the worst group of Americans in history.

There's strong and then there is surly strong. Well said sir

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Gap03

Gap03 3248

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11 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

It's a good question.  He will downplay it.  Shit, he may honestly not want to, but I think the Ds will sway him in the end.

I don't think he really has to answer definitively.  I would anticipate something like: "I never would have considered it in the past, but when the dust settles, we'll have to evaluate whether the conduct of the Republican Party over the past X years (especially with respect to consideration of nominees to the Supreme Court and the federal judiciary more broadly), when coupled with abuse of the federal courts by Trump, Barr and his administration) necessitates a rethinking of that position."

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

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I think the answer is to castigate the Republicans for their hypocrisy, the vileness of nominating a new justice before RBG is even buried, mention how unpopular this shit is (even 50% of Republican voters don't think the nomination should wait), and then say if the GOP Senate insists on going through with this when I'm President nothing will be off the table to right this wrong.  Avoid the specifics, but make a clear threat should the GOP insist on this.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Bloomberg might totally suck but this is fantastic if only because you know Trump is absolutely beside himself throwing a tantrum to whoever will listen. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517522-bloomberg-pays-fines-for-32000-felons-in-florida-so-they-can-vote

 

Edited by BradInATX
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thrillhammer

thrillhammer 683

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2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:


I went through a similar “disbelief” stage where I couldn’t believe people still supported this idiot. But then I realized that most people are extremely uninformed and simplistic. They hear a few high level ideas and that becomes their identity. And in the case of Donald Trump that high level idea was that “he’s fighting for me and America”, with “me” being blue collar “patriot” white people (including rural farmers), rich people, conservative religious white people, executives, and racists, just enough to scratch out an electoral college win.

There are mountains of evidence that he has been an absolute disaster on every policy and has hurt many of his supporters, but they are just too uninformed to see it, instead focusing on symbolic things like him pushing back on people who call others racists. These symbolic actions are nonsense but cement his followers’ commitment. It’s really frustrating.

be prepared for him to win again.  i cant imagine what the country will look like with 4 more years of these assholes running the country into the ground, but despite the polls, i am not confident that he doesn't have the votes to win.  

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honolulu horn

honolulu horn 6156

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2 hours ago, lemonlime said:

I think the answer is to castigate the Republicans for their hypocrisy, the vileness of nominating a new justice before RBG is even buried, mention how unpopular this shit is (even 50% of Republican voters don't think the nomination should wait), and then say if the GOP Senate insists on going through with this when I'm President nothing will be off the table to right this wrong.  Avoid the specifics, but make a clear threat should the GOP insist on this.

"They can start the BS, but I'm gonna end the BS" would be the right take for Joe. 

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honolulu horn

honolulu horn 6156

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33 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Bloomberg might totally suck but this is fantastic if only because you know Trump is absolutely beside himself throwing a tantrum to whoever will listen. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517522-bloomberg-pays-fines-for-32000-felons-in-florida-so-they-can-vote

 

That's fantastic. 

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4th&Five

4th&Five 41457

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2 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

be prepared for him to win again.  i cant imagine what the country will look like with 4 more years of these assholes running the country into the ground, but despite the polls, i am not confident that he doesn't have the votes to win.  

They do not have the votes. If he wins they stole it. 

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Stringer

Stringer 1436

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2 hours ago, Skipper said:

So what is Biden's answer going to be at the debate (or otherwise) when he's asked if he supports packing the court in response to Trump's appointment?  That idea may be gaining within the D party but probably doesn't play well with moderates or anti-trump R's even if they do think this is BS by the Republicans.   Will be interesting.

Something like "I am currently not in support of it, but we will wait and see what the President and Senate Republicans do in the coming weeks.  We will see if they go by the rules they set for our country 4 years ago or go back on their word.  If they go back on their word from 4 years ago, we will take another look at it."

Put it back on them first and remind everyone of their hypocrisy.   

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45477

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11 minutes ago, Stringer said:

Something like "I am currently not in support of it, but we will wait and see what the President and Senate Republicans do in the coming weeks.  We will see if they go by the rules they set for our country 4 years ago or go back on their word.  If they go back on their word from 4 years ago, we will take another look at it."

Put it back on them first and remind everyone of their hypocrisy.   

Probably the most politically savvy response.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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14 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

take:  it is a net negative. for every vote that actually gained because of this, one+ is lost for the optics of democrats assumptions that felons favor them. 

Florida voted to give felons the right to vote at something like 70%. Voting rights is a winning issue for dems.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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48 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

take:  it is a net negative. for every vote that actually gained because of this, one+ is lost for the optics of democrats assumptions that felons favor them. 

I think one of things it does is highlights wealth inequality in the country.  A billionaire can come in and pay off the legal debts of 32,000 people, without putting dent in his wealth.  

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

Posted
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3 hours ago, Skipper said:

So what is Biden's answer going to be at the debate (or otherwise) when he's asked if he supports packing the court in response to Trump's appointment?  That idea may be gaining within the D party but probably doesn't play well with moderates or anti-trump R's even if they do think this is BS by the Republicans.   Will be interesting.

If asked, he should state that the American public has overwhelmingly condemned the behavior of the gop in refusing to work with the democrats. And that he wants to work with the gop in the future.

then when the Dems have congress and the WH, Biden shouldn’t waste one second talking to the gop. Packing the scotus is the wrong move.

a good idea that Biden should propose and potentially be able to enact without an amendment are Supreme Court term limits. Give everyone 18 years. And FYI, Thomas would immediately go into the first slot and would be out of office next June.  I would create an emeritus justice role. Allow Thomas (and future office holders) to participate in hearings or even deliberations but they do not get a vote. 

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Pancho

Pancho 44358

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Yes, and it's not getting much traction because 5 of the 7 SC justices there are Democrats and the majority said the secrecy envelope was necessary. 

Thanks.

Yesterday was my birthday and I spent the day drinking so wasn't sure. 

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