2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

[Chuckie Finster 22978]

12 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

If an incumbent was polling like this at any other point in this nation's history, there would be a large and vocal contingent of the incumbent's party trying to get a new candidate on the ballot.  2016 broke everyone's brains.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Even if this Q poll is an outlier with Biden up 11 points, the fact is the incumbent president is polling in high 30s/low 40 right now. Trump is deeply unpopular.

Stop worrying about the MAGA/GOP idiots and how loud/numerous/powerful they seem to be online. It's fool's gold. All Dem energy should be focused on voter turnout. 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

More info from Q poll. Bloodbath. 

 

[UpperWestside 6263]

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

If an incumbent was polling like this at any other point in this nation's history, there would be a large and vocal contingent of the incumbent's party trying to get a new candidate on the ballot.  2016 broke everyone's brains.

They are doubling down on the basic tenets of Dotardism. Fuck you I got mine (lol on that) and make the lives of every non-white person in this country a living hell. The poll could show he's down by 20-30 points nationally and they are not budging because of those two reasons. If Biden picks Kamala Harris as his running mate hoo boy they are going to take the living hell part up to 11. 

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

The polling is why the Senate is conducting a sham investigation into Hunter Biden and the DNI is declassifying select documents from 2016, 2017. But 30 million people are unemployed and yelling at governors on Twitter isn’t a way to get them back to work.

Additionally, I think the continued indifference to death as we roll past 90,000 dead is not going unnoticed. Trump can’t win without a majority of olds

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

That is a great sign, although we’re still 5 months out

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Latino voter number is the one major weakness for Biden in this poll. There's been concern from the Latino community that there needs to be more outreach. Good news is they are listening and just hired a former Kamala staffer (and granddaughter of Cesar Chavez) yesterday as a senior adviser. 

 

[Bateshorn 9989]

Carter had similar numbers and people look back at that election and say "Of course Reagan won, nobody liked Jimmy Carter"

Yet now, everyone is "Teflon Don can't lose because of his rock solid 43%"

[henrygandorf 29219]

23 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

More info from Q poll. Bloodbath. 

 

for some perspective, the last 3 elections had dems winning women by ~12 points. 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Trump is so fucked polling wise that he's now courting Bernie voters. 

 

[The Dog 44771]

39 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Carter had similar numbers and people look back at that election and say "Of course Reagan won, nobody liked Jimmy Carter"

Yet now, everyone is "Teflon Don can't lose because of his rock solid 43%"

Not quite sure what you are saying here but by May Carter was barely polling 40%. The only reason he had a lead was that Anderson was taking some of what would become Reagan's vote. 

But if you're saying you don't understand why people think Trump will win then I agree. I think Trump Derangement Syndrome has clouded people's judgment - Trump is in serious trouble and there's no Hillary on the ballot this time. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by The Dog

[wildcat09 29556]

9 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Not quite sure what you are saying here but by May Carter was barely polling 40%. The only reason he had a lead was that Anderson was taking some of what would become Reagan's vote. 

But if you're saying you don't understand why people think Trump will win then I agree. I think Trump Derangement Syndrome has clouded people's judgment - Trump is in serious trouble and there's no Hillary on the ballot this time. 

Why people still think Trump will win (or at least has a good shot of winning) is pretty obvious. He's got a substantial built-in electoral college advantage and he already surprised us in 2016 despite polling that was pretty similar. I think people are giving those concerns too much weight given how high strong disapproval of Trump now is, and a lot of people who hated Hillary with the fire of a trillion suns generally like Biden, but Dems are certainly fighting from the low ground. 

There's also the likelihood that Trump, his administration, and Republicans in every state they control will cheat.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

My book still has trump as the favorite at -140. Crazy to see that number stay so stable with these polls coming out.

[The Dog 44771]

3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Why people still think Trump will win (or at least has a good shot of winning) is pretty obvious. He's got a substantial built-in electoral college advantage and he already surprised us in 2016 despite polling that was pretty similar. I think people are giving those concerns too much weight given how high strong disapproval of Trump now is, and a lot of people who hated Hillary with the fire of a trillion suns generally like Biden, but Dems are certainly fighting from the low ground. 

There's also the likelihood that Trump, his administration, and Republicans in every state they control will cheat.

Yeah I don't agree with any of that. The map looks very good for Biden and as was mentioned upthread there is a good chance that Trump is going to have to waste valuable time and resources campaigning in what should be "safe" states for him. That is very, very bad news for Trump.

Just MHO.

[wildcat09 29556]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Yeah I don't agree with any of that. The map looks very good for Biden and as was mentioned upthread there is a good chance that Trump is going to have to waste valuable time and resources campaigning in what should be "safe" states for him. That is very, very bad news for Trump.

Just MHO.

That's not an unreasonable position. None of this stuff is binary, they're all factors. If the GOP is wasting resources on Georgia and Texas, that's gonna be amazing for Dems. But Trump has a high base of support in a bunch of swing states and if it's close in any state in which Republicans control the election infrastructure, they'll cheat like they did in Georgia in 2018, and/or Trump will just say the Dems cheated and sue, in which case he'll have a friendly Supreme Court there to help him out if Roberts thinks it's close enough that they can get away with it. SCOTUS already stole the Presidency for the GOP in 2000, there's absolutely no reason to think they wouldn't do it again if they think the public will accept it.

['stache 22117]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

More info from Q poll. Bloodbath. 

 

This poll is bullshit. His cult will never, ever, ever be less than 42%. There's literally nothing he can do to lose these people. He could shoot someone on 5th Avenue, then rape their daughters in front of them, and they'd cheer him on. That's just the fucking truth about the good ol USA these days.

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

16 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

and he already surprised us in 2016 despite polling that was pretty similar.

I don’t think polling was similar. Didn’t Nate Silver have Hillary up by 3 points? Biden’s margin is larger, but certainly there’s urgency to take nothing for granted 

[wildcat09 29556]

2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I don’t think polling was similar. Didn’t Nate Silver have Hillary up by 3 points? Biden’s margin is larger, but certainly there’s urgency to take nothing for granted 

Before the Comey letter I think she was polling up between 5-8 points in most polls. IIRC the comey letter knocked it down to a 2-3 point lead for a day or two that rebounded back to 4-5 by Election Day. I could have those a bit off but that was the general shape of it.

[henrygandorf 29219]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Before the Comey letter I think she was polling up between 5-8 points in most polls. IIRC the comey letter knocked it down to a 2-3 point lead for a day or two that rebounded back to 4-5 by Election Day. I could have those a bit off but that was the general shape of it.

nate silver i think tweeted the numbers a few weeks ago, and the last few months leading up to nov had it as a pretty close race. state polls obviously are the only ones that count. she had a 3-4 pt lead nationally and won by ~3 points. 

[thrillhammer 686]

19 minutes ago, 'stache said:

This poll is bullshit. His cult will never, ever, ever be less than 42%. There's literally nothing he can do to lose these people. He could shoot someone on 5th Avenue, then rape their daughters in front of them, and they'd cheer him on. That's just the fucking truth about the good ol USA these days.

all polls are bullshit and that's why this will be a nailbiter to the very last.  polls reflect popular votes, the last few elections proved those are meaningless.  if you only paid attention to the polls in ohio, wv, mi, fla, pa then you'd have a better prediction of who will win.  national polls are meaningless.  biden will win the popular vote but that accomplishes nothing.  quit measuring the popular vote.

[Biff Tannen 46061]

Those polls are awesome, but a) polls are just a snapshot in time and b) I want a MINIMUM 10 point Biden lead consistently across all demographics before I even start thinking he's going to win.

[Red Five 41595]

Kind of. There is a number that exists where it becomes impossible for Biden to win by that amount and lose the electoral college. It's somewhere around 6%. 

[henrygandorf 29219]

7 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

all polls are bullshit and that's why this will be a nailbiter to the very last.  polls reflect popular votes, the last few elections proved those are meaningless.  if you only paid attention to the polls in ohio, wv, mi, fla, pa then you'd have a better prediction of who will win.  national polls are meaningless.  biden will win the popular vote but that accomplishes nothing.  quit measuring the popular vote.

ohio and wva are not relevant to this election. fl isn’t either really. 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

8 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

all polls are bullshit and that's why this will be a nailbiter to the very last.  polls reflect popular votes, the last few elections proved those are meaningless.  if you only paid attention to the polls in ohio, wv, mi, fla, pa then you'd have a better prediction of who will win.  national polls are meaningless.  biden will win the popular vote but that accomplishes nothing.  quit measuring the popular vote.

The popular vote is less meaningful when a candidate is leading in the 2-4% range, I agree. But if Biden wins the popular vote by 6+ points he will win the electoral college. Current averages show him up around 7-8 points nationally at the moment. 

I also agree that state polls are more important, and Biden is doing well in MI, FLA, PA, WI, AZ, NC right now. 

Point being, the vast majority of polls have basically been anywhere from encouraging to great news for Biden. 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

Then there was Biden. His campaign was nearly broke. His field offices were often desolate, sometimes nonexistent. But between his Saturday night victory in South Carolina and the morning of Super Tuesday, his free media was pure gold. He didn’t just win South Carolina and secure key endorsements from three former rivals; he amplified his core messages to deafening levels in mainstream media. Data had long showed Democratic voters wanted a candidate who could win and could govern in a pragmatic, bipartisan way. That was Biden’s longtime pitch, and the final days of the competitive primary showcased top Democrats embracing it.

Simply put, Biden won the argument. And he’s still winning it.

 

[Ghost of LL 15664]

51 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

That's not an unreasonable position. None of this stuff is binary, they're all factors. If the GOP is wasting resources on Georgia and Texas, that's gonna be amazing for Dems. But Trump has a high base of support in a bunch of swing states and if it's close in any state in which Republicans control the election infrastructure, they'll cheat like they did in Georgia in 2018, and/or Trump will just say the Dems cheated and sue, in which case he'll have a friendly Supreme Court there to help him out if Roberts thinks it's close enough that they can get away with it. SCOTUS already stole the Presidency for the GOP in 2000, there's absolutely no reason to think they wouldn't do it again if they think the public will accept it.

And this is part of the derangement that leads to the false narrative that Trump isn't in really, really bad shape.  SCOTUS didn't steal the Presidency for the GOP in 2000.  And the repetition of this false narrative isn't useful.

There is no count that ever had Al Gore winning Florida.  The most comprehensive recount, done by The New York Times, had Gore losing by 509 votes.  

Gore fucking lost.  All SCOTUS did was end the suspense.

[gmr548 16681]

Trump is weaker in Texas than Cruz, because Cruz overperforms statewide Republicans with hispanics. I think Trump will win also, but he and Cornyn losing is absolutely a double digit probability at this point. 

Suburban whites like them some Cornyn. He's equally as shitty as Cruz, but he's better at producing the facade of decorum. His constituent services are also much better than Cruz, who does not even pretend to care about that aspect of the job. Most of the Beto-Abbott voters will not cross over on this one. His margin will be closer to Abbott's than Beto's.

[gmr548 16681]

Why people still think Trump will win (or at least has a good shot of winning) is pretty obvious. He's got a substantial built-in electoral college advantage and he already surprised us in 2016 despite polling that was pretty similar. I think people are giving those concerns too much weight given how high strong disapproval of Trump now is, and a lot of people who hated Hillary with the fire of a trillion suns generally like Biden, but Dems are certainly fighting from the low ground. 
There's also the likelihood that Trump, his administration, and Republicans in every state they control will cheat.

Generally agree, but the polling was better for for Trump then. In the final week, post-Comey letter, Clinton was averaging +3 nationally. That's pretty close to what happened. State polls in MI, PA, and WI showed a tightening race after that, though Clinton still led. Between undecideds breaking for Trump and lackluster Democratic turnout, he was able to just get by in those states.

COVID could complicate turnout, but I think it's safe to say Democrats would inject themselves with COVID to vote Trump out, so I'm not terribly worried. There also aren't many people undecided on Donald Trump at this point, and that's not a good thing given his disapproval has been 50+ percent for essentially his entire presidency.

I fully acknowledge I probably overstate his chances based on nothing but pessimism/PTSD. There's not a data-based argument you can make that Trump has a serious chance at winning this election. The most favorable thing you can say is that a lot can change in six months.

[gmr548 16681]

My book still has trump as the favorite at -140. Crazy to see that number stay so stable with these polls coming out.

Old white men are literally the only people that bet on politics. There's a substantial bias toward Trump in that group relative to the electorate.

[gmr548 16681]

all polls are bullshit and that's why this will be a nailbiter to the very last.  polls reflect popular votes, the last few elections proved those are meaningless.  if you only paid attention to the polls in ohio, wv, mi, fla, pa then you'd have a better prediction of who will win.  national polls are meaningless.  biden will win the popular vote but that accomplishes nothing.  quit measuring the popular vote.

Not necessarialy true. It's an indicator of the overall political climate. GOP can still squeak out the electoral college losing by 2-3 points. Not happening losing by 5-6. You're either losing the Midwest or FL/NC/AZ there, possibly both.

[wildcat09 29556]

41 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And this is part of the derangement that leads to the false narrative that Trump isn't in really, really bad shape.  SCOTUS didn't steal the Presidency for the GOP in 2000.  And the repetition of this false narrative isn't useful.

There is no count that ever had Al Gore winning Florida.  The most comprehensive recount, done by The New York Times, had Gore losing by 509 votes.  

Gore fucking lost.  All SCOTUS did was end the suspense.

Are you referring to this? Because that states:

Quote

A comprehensive review of the uncounted Florida ballots from last year's presidential election reveals that George W. Bush would have won even if the United States Supreme Court had allowed the statewide manual recount of the votes that the Florida Supreme Court had ordered to go forward.

 

Contrary to what many partisans of former Vice President Al Gore have charged, the United States Supreme Court did not award an election to Mr. Bush that otherwise would have been won by Mr. Gore. A close examination of the ballots found that Mr. Bush would have retained a slender margin over Mr. Gore if the Florida court's order to recount more than 43,000 ballots had not been reversed by the United States Supreme Court.

 

Even under the strategy that Mr. Gore pursued at the beginning of the Florida standoff -- filing suit to force hand recounts in four predominantly Democratic counties -- Mr. Bush would have kept his lead, according to the ballot review conducted for a consortium of news organizations.

 

But the consortium, looking at a broader group of rejected ballots than those covered in the court decisions, 175,010 in all, found that Mr. Gore might have won if the courts had ordered a full statewide recount of all the rejected ballots. This also assumes that county canvassing boards would have reached the same conclusions about the disputed ballots that the consortium's independent observers did. The findings indicate that Mr. Gore might have eked out a victory if he had pursued in court a course like the one he publicly advocated when he called on the state to ''count all the votes.''

I really don't have the time to get into a discussion about all of the reasons that Bush v. Gore was an abysmal SCOTUS opinion because an entire class can be taught on it, but this is a good article on it. Suffice it to say that the remedy effectively ratified a vote count that, per their own reasoning, was exactly as unconstitutional as the count they were ruling would be unconstitutional. Even if Bush would've won the recount that would have been conducted, nobody knew that at the time and the Republicans were scared enough that he wouldn't that they literally ginned up a riot to halt the recount in Miami-Dade County. Bush v. Gore wasn't based on anything resembling a legal principle, it was purely an exercise in partisan power. The conservatives on the court had the power to shut down the recount while Bush still held a sliver of a lead, so that's what they did.  If a similar situation arises in November, there's absolutely no reason to think they won't do it again. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

37 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

On 5/19/2020 at 12:19 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Trump is weaker in Texas than Cruz, because Cruz overperforms statewide Republicans with hispanics. I think Trump will win also, but he and Cornyn losing is absolutely a double digit probability at this point. 

Suburban whites like them some Cornyn. He's equally as shitty as Cruz, but he's better at producing the facade of decorum. His constituent services are also much better than Cruz, who does not even pretend to care about that aspect of the job. Most of the Beto-Abbott voters will not cross over on this one. His margin will be closer to Abbott's than Beto's.

That's true, but rural MAGAns loathe John Cornyn precisely because of the facade of decorum, which they interpret as weakness (and in a way they are right, but not how they think).

[washparkhorn 9967]

30 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I fully acknowledge I probably overstate his chances based on nothing but pessimism/PTSD. There's not a data-based argument you can make that Trump has a serious chance at winning this election. The most favorable thing you can say is that a lot can change in six months.

The problem with predicting Trump is that most of his voters never admit they like him for myriad reasons, so the data remains clouded in uncertainty.  Add that to the fact that Trump can switch national narratives on a dime thanks to our current media climate leaves older attacks against him feeling dated when there is fresh blood in the water. 

You are right to be wary. The hubris displayed in 2016 predicting Hillary in a landslide was political malpractice and should never be forgotten. Biden does not generate the same animosity against him (yet) but his competency issues are more glaring than Clinton's. 

Complacency is a killer in this cycle, as it was in 2016. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by washparkhorn

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[henrygandorf 29219]

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

Are you referring to this? Because that states:

I really don't have the time to get into a discussion about all of the reasons that Bush v. Gore was an abysmal SCOTUS opinion because an entire class can be taught on it, but this is a good article on it. Suffice it to say that the remedy effectively ratified a vote count that, per their own reasoning, was exactly as unconstitutional as the count they were ruling would be unconstitutional. Even if Bush would've won the recount that would have been conducted, nobody knew that at the time and the Republicans were scared enough that he wouldn't that they literally ginned up a riot to halt the recount in Miami-Dade County. Bush v. Gore wasn't based on anything resembling a legal principle, it was purely an exercise in partisan power. The conservatives on the court had the power to shut down the recount while Bush still held a sliver of a lead, so that's what they did.  If a similar situation arises in November, there's absolutely no reason to think they won't do it again. 

just to be safe, let's make sure 2020 doesn't come down to one backwards state.

[Buzzrock 15115]

The problem with predicting Trump is that most of his voters never admit they like him for myriad reasons, so the data remains clouded in uncertainty.  Add that to the fact that Trump can switch national narratives on a dime thanks to our current media climate leaves older attacks against him feeling dated when there is fresh blood in the water. 
You are right to be wary. The hubris displayed in 2016 predicting Hillary in a landslide was political malpractice and should never be forgotten. Biden does not generate the same animosity against him (yet) but his competency issues are more glaring than Clinton's. 
Complacency is a killer in this cycle, as it was in 2016. 

Is there data to support that somewhere? The Trump voters I know wear it on their sleeve in some form or fashion.

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Generally agree, but the polling was better for for Trump then. In the final week, post-Comey letter, Clinton was averaging +3 nationally. That's pretty close to what happened. State polls in MI, PA, and WI showed a tightening race after that, though Clinton still led. Between undecideds breaking for Trump and lackluster Democratic turnout, he was able to just get by in those states.

COVID could complicate turnout, but I think it's safe to say Democrats would inject themselves with COVID to vote Trump out, so I'm not terribly worried. There also aren't many people undecided on Donald Trump at this point, and that's not a good thing given his disapproval has been 50+ percent for essentially his entire presidency.

I fully acknowledge I probably overstate his chances based on nothing but pessimism/PTSD. There's not a data-based argument you can make that Trump has a serious chance at winning this election. The most favorable thing you can say is that a lot can change in six months.

I’m not worried about democrat turnout to be honest. Democrats were setting turnout records in most states during the democratic primaries this year.

people are not going to let a virus get between them and their only chance to get rid of trump.

 

African Americans are engaged and will show up for Biden. They didn’t show up for Clinton.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Hank Scorpio 17924]

7 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

And this is part of the derangement that leads to the false narrative that Trump isn't in really, really bad shape.  SCOTUS didn't steal the Presidency for the GOP in 2000.  And the repetition of this false narrative isn't useful.

There is no count that ever had Al Gore winning Florida.  The most comprehensive recount, done by The New York Times, had Gore losing by 509 votes.  

Gore fucking lost.  All SCOTUS did was end the suspense.

 

6 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Are you referring to this? Because that states:

I really don't have the time to get into a discussion about all of the reasons that Bush v. Gore was an abysmal SCOTUS opinion because an entire class can be taught on it, but this is a good article on it. Suffice it to say that the remedy effectively ratified a vote count that, per their own reasoning, was exactly as unconstitutional as the count they were ruling would be unconstitutional. Even if Bush would've won the recount that would have been conducted, nobody knew that at the time and the Republicans were scared enough that he wouldn't that they literally ginned up a riot to halt the recount in Miami-Dade County. Bush v. Gore wasn't based on anything resembling a legal principle, it was purely an exercise in partisan power. The conservatives on the court had the power to shut down the recount while Bush still held a sliver of a lead, so that's what they did.  If a similar situation arises in November, there's absolutely no reason to think they won't do it again. 

lol owned

[Ghost of LL 15664]

14 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Are you referring to this? Because that states:

I really don't have the time to get into a discussion about all of the reasons that Bush v. Gore was an abysmal SCOTUS opinion because an entire class can be taught on it, but this is a good article on it. Suffice it to say that the remedy effectively ratified a vote count that, per their own reasoning, was exactly as unconstitutional as the count they were ruling would be unconstitutional. Even if Bush would've won the recount that would have been conducted, nobody knew that at the time and the Republicans were scared enough that he wouldn't that they literally ginned up a riot to halt the recount in Miami-Dade County. Bush v. Gore wasn't based on anything resembling a legal principle, it was purely an exercise in partisan power. The conservatives on the court had the power to shut down the recount while Bush still held a sliver of a lead, so that's what they did.  If a similar situation arises in November, there's absolutely no reason to think they won't do it again. 

There's a big difference between SCOTUS reaching a decision with which you disagree and SCOTUS "stealing" the election.  To "steal" the election, it must have been Al Gore's to begin with.  

But the election was never Al Gore's.  He lost.  Ownership may have been uncertain at the time, but that's exactly what the courts are for.  And, as it turned out, the election went to the rightful owner.

It's a completely false narrative to say that the 2000 election was "stolen."  And it's a dangerous narrative.  It says that there's precedent for stealing an election.  And so it normalizes that action.  It implicitly creates a permission structure for Trump to steal the 2020 election.

So stop it.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Jack Straw 2955]

16 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

There's also the likelihood that Trump, his administration, and Republicans in every state they control will cheat.

a likelihood of 100% 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

 

[henrygandorf 29219]

3 hours ago, Message Board User said:

it's about sowing doubt about legitimacy of certain types of voters.

um, i'm gonna guess...democratic voters?

[Storm the Field 5360]

PPP has Biden up 6 in Michigan.

In "WTF" news,  a polling firm was commissioned by a GOP pac to do WI, MI and PA and came up with some weird outlier results that seem based off bad demographic samples.

They have Biden up 9 in both MI and WI, but their samples seem too D or too college-educated. They also have Biden down 5 in PA but that's off a far too GOP sample. 

[Storm the Field 5360]

And in "toss that shit in the trash" polling:

Hill-HarrisX.

Trump 51% approval.

Biden 42, Trump 41.

They have both getting 39% of the female vote. They also have Biden up 45-42 among men. Trump only +1 among non-college crowd.

Biden 68% of the black vote to Trump's 11% with 21% undecided or other. 

Biden gets 45% of the hispanic vote to Trump's 29% with 26% undecided or other.

 

 

[The Dog 44771]

9 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

PPP has Biden up 6 in Michigan.

In "WTF" news,  a polling firm was commissioned by a GOP pac to do WI, MI and PA and came up with some weird outlier results that seem based off bad demographic samples.

They have Biden up 9 in both MI and WI, but their samples seem too D or too college-educated. They also have Biden down 5 in PA but that's off a far too GOP sample. 

PPP is a registered voters poll whereas the one with Biden +3 is likely voters. Still safe to say Biden is ahead.

I saw those WTF polls on 538. That polling firm don't even have a grade from them. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

20 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

And in "toss that shit in the trash" polling:

Hill-HarrisX.

Trump 51% approval.

Biden 42, Trump 41.

They have both getting 39% of the female vote. They also have Biden up 45-42 among men. Trump only +1 among non-college crowd.

Biden 68% of the black vote to Trump's 11% with 21% undecided or other. 

Biden gets 45% of the hispanic vote to Trump's 29% with 26% undecided or other.

 

 

Every line of this post got a 

 

out of me.