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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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America 2020: mass death, millions put out of work while the richest men in the country are making billions upon billions by the day.  

No one is fixing this shit and it is going to get ugly quick.  There is so much pain in this country right now that we’re not seeing.

Vote like hell to reduce the damage and start fighting for a better America b/c this one is toast. 

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3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I really don't give a damn what you think about the two, in my estimation Beto is a stuffed shirt with little going on up top, and Pete actually has some brains.  You do you.  We don't have to agree.

WTF? Come on Jimmy jazzer.... Don't be so down on our next governor!!!!

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13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

America 2020: mass death, millions put out of work while the richest men in the country are making billions upon billions by the day.  

No one is fixing this shit and it is going to get ugly quick.  There is so much pain in this country right now that we’re not seeing.

Vote like hell to reduce the damage and start fighting for a better America b/c this one is toast. 

It is true that the rich are getting richer. And its not even just the top 1 percent from where I see , but the top 10-15 percent who basically did nothing to cause this but are for the  most part benefiting anyway. Working remotely doesn’t really affect them like it does everyone else. And I’m not talking about tax cuts, but just what all is happening around the country. 

This cannot continue to sustain itself. Trump must go. Biden has promised to raise taxes on only the top 400k plus makers. While a start, that isn’t enough. If trump somehow steals the election this country really is done. 

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

Fear is the anti response and I think that's what has me so mad at people on the board. If you feel fear we have already lost. 

The correct feeling is one of tenacity. It's time for us to stand up to the bullshit and not accept "the way it is/was" anymore. Not by marching, not by rioting, not by arguing on a message board, but by voting, and by getting involved in the change at a fundamental level no matter how small. 

Tenacity can be motivated by fear, though.  My default setting is cynically apolitical.  But I'm motivated to action by the fear of what Trump is capable of if elected again.  I think a lot of people are wildly underestimating him, even though he's told people more or less exactly what he's going to try to do.

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2 hours ago, thepop said:

I'm doing Text banking for Texas Democrats tonight. Mostly non eventful. We ask if you are planning on supporting Biden, Hegar, etc.

Of the people that respond, mostly yes's and some saying "stop".

Only one Trump 2020 tonight. I said thanks for letting me know, have a nice day (the standard response).

She responded with again, Trump 2020. So i'm saying fuck it with the pre written responses and i'm trolling this woman.

gimme her address so I can put on my list to hack her up with my machete if I get rampagy. Is she old? That would be helpful.

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3 hours ago, Superhero said:

This

And this.

Bring in new blood. Kamala fits that bill, but I voted Pete in the primaries because he's incredibly smart, unemotional enough to stay in the middle, and knows where he falls short and not afraid to bring in SMEs to advise him.

Can you imagine him in a debate the orange one? He would absolutely DESTROY Trump. 

But alas, Americans wouldn't vote for him simply because his sexual orientation. As an immigrant, I'll say this... the average American is fucking dumb.

He was doing poorly with blacks, Trump is doing better than he was.

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8 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

Kamala was suppose to make a Big uptick difference in the Biden campaign.

Media pundits pushed this narrative without supporting evidence. Several of us here said she would gain Biden absolutely nothing b/c the folks that loved Kamala were already voting Biden. 

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Media pundits pushed this narrative without supporting evidence. Many of us here said she would gain Biden absolutely nothing b/c the folks that loved Kamala were already voting Biden. 

Other than LBJ in 1960 I can’t think of a single VP who made a difference in the presidential election and even that took some Texas style shenanigans if I recall.

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12 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Probably will when her and Pence go at it.

 

2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Other than LBJ in 1960 I can’t think of a single VP who made a difference in the presidential election and even that took some Texas style shenanigans if I recall.

Both of these

edit: to me she is more of a cabinet member selection that is saying “we are serious about this shit and putting people in place that will make actual change” instead of the normal placeholder bullshit second in command. 

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4 hours ago, GW Hayduke said:

Your position seems to be that because the Democratic party isn't perfect, trump has been able to shit everywhere

This is a terrible restatement of his position. It would be like him saying your position is that because Trump is so terrible the Democrats are above reproach. That’s not your take is it?

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3 hours ago, Brandywine said:

Kamala was suppose to make a Big uptick difference in the Biden campaign. I don’t feel like I’ve seen or heard much from her at all. Some, just not as much as she should be, in my option. 

Sometimes the goal with a VP pick is to just not rock the boat or mess anything up. She should do fine against pence in the debate. She also probably helps marginally with Asian, Indian, and black voters.

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https://apnews.com/b5ddd0854037e9687e952cd79e1526df
 

not sure if this has been discussed yet, but ranked choice voting will now be used for the presidential election in Maine. It seemed to help democrats in the house race there in 2018, so I’m hoping it will have a similar effect on the senate race and the race for Maine district 02.

Maine is a weird state with lots of voters who like to vote for parties other than republicans and democrats. The hope is that most of those people lean closer to the Democrat side than the Trumpkin side after their preferred candidate loses.

Edited by Voldemort86
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New polls for Texas, Iowa & Georgia.

Crosstabs: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ga-ia-tx-crosstabs/ca61e64eaef883ac/full.pdf

Trump Faces Challenges Even in Red States, Poll Shows, as Women Favor Biden
Close races in Georgia, Iowa and Texas show President Trump’s vulnerability and suggest that Joseph Biden has assembled a formidable coalition, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

President Trump is on the defensive in three red states he carried in 2016, narrowly trailing Joseph R. Biden Jr. in Iowa and battling to stay ahead of him in Georgia and Texas, as Mr. Trump continues to face a wall of opposition from women that has also endangered his party’s control of the Senate, according to a poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.

Mr. Trump’s vulnerability even in conservative-leaning states underscores just how precarious his political position is, less than six weeks before Election Day. While he and Mr. Biden are competing aggressively for traditional swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, the poll suggests that Mr. Biden has assembled a coalition formidable enough to jeopardize Mr. Trump even in historically Republican parts of the South and Midwest.

A yawning gender gap in all three states is working in Mr. Biden’s favor, with the former vice president making inroads into conservative territory with strong support from women. In Iowa, where Mr. Biden is ahead of Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 42 percent, he is up among women by 14 percentage points. Men favor Mr. Trump by eight points.

In Georgia, where the two candidates are tied at 45 percent, Mr. Biden leads among women by 10 points. Mr. Trump is ahead with men by a similar margin of 11 percentage points.

Mr. Trump’s large advantage among men in Texas is enough to give him a small advantage there, 46 percent to 43 percent. Men prefer the president to his Democratic challenger by 16 points, while women favor Mr. Biden by an eight-point margin.

There was a significant gender gap in the 2016 election, too, but at that time it tilted toward Mr. Trump because men supported him so heavily, according to exit polls. In the Times poll, Mr. Biden sharply narrowed Mr. Trump’s advantage with men while improving on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 lead with women in Texas and Iowa.

In Georgia, Mr. Biden’s lead with women essentially matched Mrs. Clinton’s final advantage in the 2016 race. But where Mr. Trump carried Georgia men by 23 points four years ago, he was ahead by about half that margin with men in the state in the Times poll.

The overwhelming majority of voters — about nine in every 10 in all three states — say they have definitely made up their minds about whom to vote for, leaving relatively little room for late developments to shift the overarching shape of the race.

The poll, conducted by phone among likely voters from Sept. 16 to 22, had a margin of sampling error of four percentage points for Texas and five in Iowa and Georgia.

Spoiler

 

Mr. Trump’s tenuous hold on some of the largest red states in the country has presented Mr. Biden with unexpected political opportunities and stirred debate among Democrats about how aggressively to contest states far outside the traditional presidential battleground. Mr. Biden has made efforts so far in a few states that voted emphatically for Mr. Trump four years ago, including Georgia and Iowa, but he has resisted pressure to compete for Texas, a huge and complicated state that Democrats believe is unlikely to furnish the decisive 270th Electoral College vote.

But the presence of competitive Senate races in many of those states has been a powerful enticement to Democrats, including Mr. Biden.

The lopsided gender dynamics of the presidential contest extend to Senate races in Iowa, Georgia and Texas, with Republican incumbents facing strong challenges from Democratic candidates favored heavily by women. The gender gap is pronounced even in Iowa, where both Senate candidates are women. The Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, has a two-point lead over Senator Joni Ernst and an 11-point advantage with women.

The poll partly coincided with Mr. Trump’s announcement that he would make a new Supreme Court nomination to fill the vacancy created by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, but it was not clear from the survey whether voters had a particularly strong reaction to that possibility.

Mary McKinney, 48, of St. Charles, Iowa, said she supported Mr. Trump because of his plain-spoken manner but felt the Supreme Court process was moving “a little fast,” adding that she would not support efforts to outlaw abortion.

“I don’t like abortion, but I don’t like a woman being forced to carry a baby due to a traumatic incident, so I guess I’m kind of neutral on that,” said Ms. McKinney, who works at home as a foster parent.

Reflecting the conservative tilt of the states polled, Mr. Trump and his party are in better shape than in most of the others recently polled by The Times, and he may ultimately carry all of them. The president’s approval rating is in positive territory in Texas, and voters are almost evenly split in Iowa and Georgia. That is markedly stronger than Mr. Trump’s standing in core swing states like Wisconsin and Arizona.

Mr. Trump has maintained an enduring advantage over Mr. Biden on economic issues, and that extends to all three states in the Times poll. And where voters elsewhere have heavily favored Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump on the issue of managing the coronavirus pandemic, voters in Texas and Georgia are closely divided on that score. Mr. Biden still holds a sizable advantage on the issue in Iowa.

In Georgia and Texas, the election is also split along racial lines. Mr. Trump is winning about two-thirds of white voters in both Georgia and Texas, while Mr. Biden leads by enormous margins with Black voters in both states. Hispanic voters in Texas favor Mr. Biden by 25 points, 57 percent to 32 percent.

Still, many of the same voters, in heavily white Iowa and two traditionally conservative Southern states, are not as dismissive of systemic racism as Mr. Trump is. In each state, half or more of those surveyed found racism in the country’s criminal justice system to be a bigger problem than rioting.

And as with The Times surveys of other competitive states from earlier this month, voters expressed little confidence in Mr. Trump’s ability to heal the country.

Jeff Secora of Mason City, Iowa, is the kind of voter Mr. Biden will have to keep in his camp in order to carry the state. Mr. Secora, 63, an independent, said he had voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 but had grown fed up. He said he had reservations about Mr. Biden but preferred his “honesty and integrity” to the president’s character.

“He is polarizing, and he’s proud of it, and it just makes this country look weaker to our enemies,” Mr. Secora said of Mr. Trump, adding: “He lies all the time. He’s totally unpresidential. He makes Richard Nixon look like a choir boy.”

The Senate races in the three states also highlight the same forces that are propelling Mr. Biden’s candidacy. Democrats currently appear to have a good shot of achieving a 50-50 split in the Senate, but in order to win an outright majority they would have to push deeper into Republican-leaning states.

The party may have its best chance of such a pickup in Iowa, where Ms. Greenfield, the Democrat, is capturing 42 percent of the vote to 40 percent for Ms. Ernst, a dangerously low number for an incumbent this late in the race.

In addition to leading among women, Ms. Greenfield is ahead by 10 points among voters older than 65, a group that Ms. Ernst won overwhelmingly when she captured her seat six years ago.

In Georgia, where there are two Senate races on the ballot, Republicans appear better positioned but are still facing highly competitive campaigns. David Perdue is currently winning 41 percent, while his Democratic rival, Jon Ossoff, is taking 38 percent. Sixteen percent of Georgia voters said they were undecided, including a significant number of African-Americans, who historically side overwhelmingly with Democrats.

The state’s other Senate race, to fill the unexpired term of former Senator Johnny Isakson, is even more uncertain. Senator Kelly Loeffler, the Republican appointed to replace Mr. Isakson, is in a multicandidate race with a host of other contenders. If nobody gets 50 percent, the top two vote-getters would advance to a January runoff, which could prove pivotal in a narrowly divided Senate.

Ms. Loeffler is winning 23 percent of the vote right now, while her nearest Republican rival, Representative Doug Collins, is garnering 19 percent. The top Democratic vote-getter is the Rev. Raphael Warnock, who’s also taking 19 percent of the vote. The highest vote share in the race, however, is not currently residing with any candidate: 27 percent of Georgians said they were undecided in the race.

Both Ms. Loeffler and Mr. Collins have tied themselves closely to Mr. Trump in the hope of gaining a decisive advantage with conservatives in the first round of voting. But in a runoff, either of them would be confronting a rising population of younger people and Black and Latino voters who reject the president.

One of those voters is Casey Andre-Lindsay, 41, of Roswell, who said she planned to vote for Mr. Biden. Ms. Andre-Lindsay, who lost her job this year, said she saw Mr. Trump’s agenda as defined by turning back progress. Of Republicans, she said, “It doesn’t seem like they want it to be a democracy where people speak up anymore.”

“It’s going to take a decade to fix the things that he is trying to dismantle,” Ms. Andre-Lindsay said of Mr. Trump.

The Texas Senate race appears to be the best bet for Republicans among the three states. Senator John Cornyn, who’s seeking a fourth term, is winning 42 percent of the vote, while M.J. Hegar, the Democrat, is taking 37 percent.

Still, that a long-serving official such as Mr. Cornyn is not more firmly in control of the race illustrates the increasingly competitive nature of Texas elections and the G.O.P.’s struggles with suburban voters. Mr. Cornyn’s advantage is powered almost entirely by rural voters: he’s trailing significantly among those who live in cities and has just a two-point advantage with suburbanites, 17 percent of whom said they were still undecided.

A significant danger looming for Texas Republicans is that Mr. Trump’s hard-line immigration policies are increasingly out of step with where the state is today, and where it is heading.

Three-quarters of the state’s voters support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants currently living in the country, including 98 percent of Texans under 30. Just 20 percent of Texans over all opposed such a process.

Texans were closely split on Mr. Trump’s proposal for a border wall. But opposition to such a wall is overwhelming among younger voters and significant among independents and those living in the state’s cities and suburbs.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

If you go back and look at the last three competitive federal races (Beto/Cruz, Hillary/Trump, Obama/Romney), the Republican candidate has a very firm ceiling of 4 to 4.5M votes.  The margin of victory changes but the vote count doesn't.  Hillary only lost by 800K and Beto by about 200K.  If they'd added 1.5M votes and just 60% are Dem or left leaning, it's highly likely Biden wins Texas combined with the natural trends that were going on anyway.

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8 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

This is a terrible restatement of his position. It would be like him saying your position is that because Trump is so terrible the Democrats are above reproach. That’s not your take is it?

That is a fine restatement of his position. It isn’t the fault of “both sides” that one side is acting stupid fucking crazy.  That both sides narrative is a defense of those actively shitting on our country. It is just as flawed as victim blaming is flawed. 

It’s dumb to point to any misstep throughout history of the Dems and say that is why we have a potus that rage tweets, or that is why McConnell is a complete hypocrite with no shame, or why we have a potus that vilifies the free press or why trump shat all over our country for four years. The fault lies on GOP politicians, trump, their voters and contributors, and their propaganda. 

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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/24/florida-republicans-voter-registration-surge-420936
 

potentially bad news out of Florida.  Democrats seem to have the vote by mail edge and democrats are also banking on lots of old people being turned off by trump because of Covid. Meanwhile, republicans are knocking on doors, registering people to vote, and making a big dent in the democrats statewide voter registration advantage. 
 

Trumps poll numbers in Florida are improving from Hispanics because those Hispanics are different from the ones in Texas, Arizona, and California. These Hispanics are typically from Venezuela, Colombia, and Cuba. Trump and the Russians are taking advantage of the fact that most of them don’t have cable and they’re getting nearly all of their news from Facebook. Trump and GOP operatives literally flood the zone with vicious rumors about Biden and democrats. These people really believe if Biden wins that we will become like the USSR, they will have to hide their kids in closets because democrats will be raping people in the streets, and the whole world is going to end.

its sad that these people are being taken advantage of by Trump and the GOP, and these people don’t even realize it. These people are from oppressive countries, they’re so afraid of communism and socialism that they “ can’t take that chance” in voting for a Democrat. 
 

I guess we can cross our fingers that the mail in ballots and pissed off seniors keep us in the race in Florida. If not, Biden’s lead better be as solid as we think it is in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.

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38 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If you go back and look at the last three competitive federal races (Beto/Cruz, Hillary/Trump, Obama/Romney), the Republican candidate has a very firm ceiling of 4 to 4.5M votes.  The margin of victory changes but the vote count doesn't.  Hillary only lost by 800K and Beto by about 200K.  If they'd added 1.5M votes and just 60% are Dem or left leaning, it's highly likely Biden wins Texas combined with the natural trends that were going on anyway.

Not to be pessimistic, but registering is one thing and voting is another. It's easy to get someone registered as they walk out of HEB, but if they don't vote it means nothing. Here's hoping they do. 

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46 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

That is a fine restatement of his position. It isn’t the fault of “both sides” that one side is acting stupid fucking crazy.  That both sides narrative is a defense of those actively shitting on our country. It is just as flawed as victim blaming is flawed. 

It’s dumb to point to any misstep throughout history of the Dems and say that is why we have a potus that rage tweets, or that is why McConnell is a complete hypocrite with no shame, or why we have a potus that vilifies the free press or why trump shat all over our country for four years. The fault lies on GOP politicians, trump, their voters and contributors, and their propaganda. 

Nothing that he stated disputes or minimizes your criticisms of the Republicans. You want to paint the Democrats as completely blameless in  where we are and that is just incorrect. Actually, maybe I did restate your position well 

 

Nominating the worst presidential candidate in history is a pretty fucking big misstep

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5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

 

They didn't make the Republicans what they are today. Republicans did that to themselves. Democrats should have done more to warn the country about what the Republican party was becoming, but didn't. 

I don’t disagree. And I don’t recall anything in the posts I was defending that argued the dems are responsible for what the Republicans have become but maybe I missed it

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52 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If you go back and look at the last three competitive federal races (Beto/Cruz, Hillary/Trump, Obama/Romney), the Republican candidate has a very firm ceiling of 4 to 4.5M votes.  The margin of victory changes but the vote count doesn't.  Hillary only lost by 800K and Beto by about 200K.  If they'd added 1.5M votes and just 60% are Dem or left leaning, it's highly likely Biden wins Texas combined with the natural trends that were going on anyway.

I'm not even sure that its all a function of new voters. My mom has been a solid R Texas voter since Reagan. She doesn't talk about it but she voted Trump in 2016. She's going with an all-Democrat ballot this fall. 

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23 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I don’t disagree. And I don’t recall anything in the posts I was defending that argued the dems are responsible for what the Republicans have become but maybe I missed it

Sorry if I misunderstood, I probably jumped into the middle there without getting fully caught up. Need more coffee and to stop sitting curled up in the corner muttering "Page A15" to myself.

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40 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I don’t disagree. And I don’t recall anything in the posts I was defending that argued the dems are responsible for what the Republicans have become but maybe I missed it

 

49 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Nothing that he stated disputes or minimizes your criticisms of the Republicans. You want to paint the Democrats as completely blameless in  where we are and that is just incorrect. Actually, maybe I did restate your position well 

 

Nominating the worst presidential candidate in history is a pretty fucking big misstep

So again:

It’s dumb to point to any misstep throughout history of the Dems and say that is why we have a potus that rage tweets, or that is why McConnell is a complete hypocrite with no shame, or why we have a potus that vilifies the free press or why trump shat all over our country for four years. The fault lies on GOP politicians, trump, their voters and contributors, and their propaganda. 

If only the Jews had organized better, then Hitler wouldn’t have been a thing

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36 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm not even sure that its all a function of new voters. My mom has been a solid R Texas voter since Reagan. She doesn't talk about it but she voted Trump in 2016. She's going with an all-Democrat ballot this fall. 

I think the reason republicans are “ capped” at 4.5 million in Texas is because most of their base is old. As we all know older people are more likely to die and the bigger counties of Texas combined vote share is increasing with every election. 
 

it’s a combination of old people dying and the rural idiots thankfully losing voting power.

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1 minute ago, GW Hayduke said:

 

 

So again:

It’s dumb to point to any misstep throughout history of the Dems and say that is why we have a potus that rage tweets, or that is why McConnell is a complete hypocrite with no shame, or why we have a potus that vilifies the free press or why trump shat all over our country for four years. The fault lies on GOP politicians, trump, their voters and contributors, and their propaganda. 

Yeah just quoting yourself doesn’t make it less of a stupid take. The dems are not responsible for what the republicans have become. They are also not blameless in trump becoming president. 

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13 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

If only the Jews had organized better, then Hitler wouldn’t have been a thing

Damn I missed that day in world history where we learned “the Jews” were 1 of the 2 controlling political parties in 1930s Germany 

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Re: NYT poll in Texas - kind of a mixed bag IMHO. For one it's a quality pollster showing a statistical dead heat. However, the sample was Trump +5 from four years ago (he won Texas by 9) and to me that means Trump may actually lead by more even though it's an R +7 sample. Either people in the poll didn't want to admit they voted for Trump or they got a lot of third party voters who identify as Republicans (or people who just sat out last time). 

 

All that said you have 9% of Texas likely voters in that sample saying they are undecided. That's a LOT compared to other states. In fact, all three of those states (including Iowa and Georgia) have a lot of undecideds. Having that many undecideds at this stage with those polls being as close as they are definitely puts those states in play IMHO and is going to lead to a wild and EXPENSIVE finish. 

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1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

When I eventually snap, it’s not going to be because of nazis but because of shit like this: 

 

“A fire broke out backstage in a theatre. The clown came out to warn the public; they thought it was a joke and applauded. He repeated it; the acclaim was even greater. I think that’s just how the world will come to an end: to the general applause of wits who believe it’s a joke.” 
-Soren Kierkegaard, Either/Or, Part I

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19 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Yeah just quoting yourself doesn’t make it less of a stupid take

Go ahead and break it down then.  

Your position appears to be that if the Dems would have been the winners in 2016 then trump wouldn’t be president. If so, that is a straight up groundbreaking take!!!!  Stop the fucking presses!!!  

So your position is that both sides are to blame for trump’s four years of shitting on America, because trump won the election and the democrats lost? Or would it more accurate to lay fault on the GOP politicians in the senate that actively protect that shitting, trump who is doing the actual shitting, the voters and contributors that applaud the shitting, or the propaganda that tells folks the shitting isn’t actually shitting.

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Are you wondering which journalists are worth paying attention to over the next few months and which ones are bullshit artists?  Quick test: go to twitter and see if they are making a bigger deal of Biden calling a "lid" this morning to prepare for the debate than Trump's refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power.

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1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I never thought the country could tolerate a president who abused the office for personal profit. I never thought the country could tolerate a president who abused the office for personal political gain. I never thought the country could tolerate a president who openly, actively, seeks and receives foreign assistance to influence American elections. I never thought the country could tolerate the open politicization of the justice department, and the use of power to protect political allies, while punishing political opponents.
 

One political party is responsible for all of this. Fuck whoever is arguing “both sides” in this election. This country has already become a banana republic that only benefits corrupt glad handers taking their grift while they can. I’m honestly not sure the damage from this administration can be undone. 

I laugh when people say Bush/Cheney were worse than Trump.  The consequences of Trump are not yet realized but they are going to be catastrophic and last for a generation or more. 

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