2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Voldemort86 2259]

I definitely think Iowa could be in play.

 

Here is Iowa’s early voting stats :

mail ballots requested by party

Democrats - 300,778

repubs- 154,100

No party affiliation- 88,959

the Democrats number requested equals 46% of Clinton’s 2016 vote share. The republicans number requested is 19.2% of Trumps 2016 vote share. 

[Beantown Express 2.0 6597]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Facebook should be required to post this at the top of the page when their app opens and leave it up the entire time someone is scrolling down their feed.  Same with many other sites. Instead, some Russian Troll farm will put out a story on Facebook on November 4th that Trump really won the state of Michigan (assuming he loses it) and the Democrats cheated.  It will then be sent to millions of people and the lie becomes truth.  Sad.

[Sawbonz 28222]

34 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

Go ahead and break it down then.  

Your position appears to be that if the Dems would have been the winners in 2016 then trump wouldn’t be president. If so, that is a straight up groundbreaking take!!!!  Stop the fucking presses!!!  

So your position is that both sides are to blame for trump’s four years of shitting on America, because trump won the election and the democrats lost? Or would it more accurate to lay fault on the GOP politicians in the senate that actively protect that shitting, trump who is doing the actual shitting, the voters and contributors that applaud the shitting, or the propaganda that tells folks the shitting isn’t actually shitting.

Break it down?  I told you my position. Stating the dems have some culpability in where we are does not imply they are responsible for the total collapse of the republicans or Trump’s behavior. 
 

I am also not implying the blame lies equally on dems for where we are; that is your incorrect inference. If you can’t see that there is really no point in further engagement

[Sawbonz 28222]

5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I definitely think Iowa could be in play.

 

Here is Iowa’s early voting stats :

mail ballots requested by party

Democrats - 300,778

repubs- 154,100

No party affiliation- 88,959

the Democrats number requested equals 46% of Clinton’s 2016 vote share. The republicans number requested is 19.2% of Trumps 2016 vote share. 

Obama won Iowa twice iirc

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

North Carolina early voting update :

1,002,874 absentee ballots have been requested so far

85,261 had been requested by this time in 2016

Democrat requests are outpacing republican requests by more than 2 to 1

[GW Hayduke 1957]

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Break it down?  I told you my position. Stating the dems have some culpability in where we are does not imply they are responsible for the total collapse of the republicans or Trump’s behavior. 
 

I am also not implying the blame lies equally on dems for where we are; that is your incorrect inference. If you can’t see that there is really no point in further engagement

Yes. Your position is that both sides are culpable and to blame (although not equal culpability or equal blame) but only one side is responsible. You may want check the definitions for culpability and responsibility.

It is true and a total mindblow, that if the Dems has won 2016 then trump wouldn’t be president.  

This is a bad take. Both sides narratives are almost always bad takes. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

10 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Obama won Iowa twice iirc

Trump also won it big in 2016 and going into this cycle democrats assumed it was off the table. 

[Sawbonz 28222]

2 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

Yes. Your position is that both sides are culpable and to blame (although not equal culpability or equal blame) but only one side is responsible.

 Read what I wrote again. Or not. Your continued misrepresentation really is not worth a response

[The Dog 44861]

Now if only the Democrats can just fill out the ballots correctly and follow directions...

[GW Hayduke 1957]

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

 Read what I wrote again. Or not. Your continued misrepresentation really is not worth a response

Sure. One party is shitting on the US. The other party wants that shitting to stop. This is election season. Drop the both sides narratives. It’s weak sauce. 

 

[bad_teammate 13524]

The problem with useless VP candidates is that they don't bring heat on their own. The presidential candidate isn't going to choose someone as/more popular than them. Harris couldn't even make it to the primary.

The only VP choice that would've moved the needle for Biden was the old Vermonter, but id.pol that will eventually gain Biden nothing electorally ruled the day and I don't think Bernard would've wanted that anyway and there's no way Biden would've gone for it. Just thinking purely in terms of name recognition and voter pools. Would've secured a lot of young votes and a lot of organizing capacity.

Hopefully Trump is so hated that it's all irrelevant.

[Pescado_Rojo 19587]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Now if only the Democrats can just fill out the ballots correctly and follow directions...

And someone at the post office doesn't dump and burn them all. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4075]

11 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Other than LBJ in 1960 I can’t think of a single VP who made a difference in the presidential election and even that took some Texas style shenanigans if I recall.

Eagleton

[TexArcher 39072]

I don't think Kamala is a "useless VP candidate" at all.  Biden needed someone younger (check), someone black and female (check, and I have a problem with these criteria being apparently mandatory, but whatever), someone intelligent and articulate (big check), and someone ready to step into his shoes immediately should his health falter (check).

Kamala makes a lot of sense for Joe.

Edited September 24, 2020 by TexArcher

[Chuckie Finster 23079]

nm

Edited September 24, 2020 by Chuckie Finster

[Gil Bang 26240]

11 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Other than LBJ in 1960 I can’t think of a single VP who made a difference in the presidential election and even that took some Texas style shenanigans if I recall.

I would argue that Pence was a difference-maker to the bible thumpers.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

12 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Now if only the Democrats can just fill out the ballots correctly and follow directions...

100%. The GOP is also facing a big risk if a higher percentage of their voters are waiting until Nov 3rd to vote. COVID could be rising in some areas that will scare people off. Lines may look longer, due to social distancing, which could scare people off. Texas in-person voting will definitely take longer due to the removal of straight ticket. Any bad weather plus long, slow lines will decrease turnout.

GOTV is facing unique challenges due to 2020.

 

[bad_teammate 13524]

8 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I don't think Kamala is a "useless VP candidate" at all.  Biden needed someone younger (check), someone black and female (check, and I have a problem with these criteria being apparently mandatory, but whatever), someone intelligent and articulate (big check), and someone ready to step into his shoes immediately should his health falter (check).

In what sense did he "need" any of that?

In a media acceptance sense and Twitter blue-check sense, sure, he "needed" that. But in terms of voters? Who are the voting bases that Harris brings to Biden that he didn't already have?

It's a serious question. I genuinely have no idea.

[TexArcher 39072]

Just now, bad_teammate said:

In what sense did he "need" any of that?

In a media acceptance sense and Twitter blue-check sense, sure, he "needed" that. But in terms of voters? Who are the voting bases that Harris brings to Biden that he didn't already have?

It's a serious question. I genuinely have no idea.

I'm sure that Kamala offsets the slightly creepy old white guy vibe with some housewives somewhere.  And you don't think black voter turnout will be higher for Biden/Harris than it would've been for Biden/Bernie?  Come on.  You make this an election where all four candidates are 70+ white men, right now especially, and a lot of black people and even young white feminist types aren't gonna go stand in line for hours during a pandemic to vote.

But it's also not just about delivering votes.  It's about doing the job.  And it's about the future.  She'll be a good VP and probably a good president someday.

[bad_teammate 13524]

1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

And you don't think black voter turnout will be higher for Biden/Harris than it would've been for Biden/Bernie?

The black vote isn't a monolith. It splits hard along age lines.

--------------------------------------------

Overall, our last three CNN polls have Biden at 44% among black voters. No one else is anywhere close; Harris is in second at 14%. Biden's big league advantage in these polls is similar to the Fox News poll.

 

However, Biden's standing drops to 36% among black voters under the age of 50. This is lower than the 51% he has among black voters aged 50 and older.

 

We don't have a large enough sample size to break it down further than that, but we can model it out using age and race as predictors. Our model suggests that Biden's support probably drops to below 30% among voters under the age of 30. It also suggests that the former vice president's support is likely closer to 60% among black voters age 70 and older. That is, his support probably doubles between the youngest and oldest Democrats.

--------------------------------------------

 

Who did young black voters like? Bernie.

 

I know many here are going to want to start yelling about how the primary is over and that I need to get over it, but the reality is that we should be able to look at data with a clear head. This isn't about re-litigating anything, but just pointing out that voting bases exist and there are ways that a VP could get to necessary ones, it's just that Presidential candidates don't actually pick based on that, which is why VP selections don't really matter most of the time.

 

If VP picks were made with these voting base calculations in mind, then VP picks could matter. But they aren't, so they don't.

 

Quote

You make this an election where all four candidates are 70+ white men, right now especially, and a lot of black people and even young white feminist types aren't gonna go stand in line for hours during a pandemic to vote.

Old black people love Joe and young black people love Bernie. Which group of black voters is staying home if it's Biden/Sanders? Again, Harris couldn't even make it to Iowa.

As for young white feminists... they aren't voting for Trump and I'm so very very very very very very tired of catering everything to white liberal suburbanites with Live Laugh Love stencils on their kitchen walls and epic Twitter accounts.

If "young white feminists" is the answer to "Who does Kamala bring?" then drag this party out back and shoot it in the head.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Biden picked Kamala for some of the same reasons Obama picked Biden and it has little to do with how good a VP/President she might make.  It was the “do no harm” choice that Presidential candidates almost always go with.  The VP pick is rarely used as an offensive weapon to gain votes.  Sometimes it’s used to secure a swing state like Kaine but that’s about it. I do not agree with these strategies but it is what it is.

Edited September 24, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[bad_teammate 13524]

100% fair

[Michael Knight 13224]

Republicans suing Greg Abbott over early voting because of course they are

In July, Abbott added six days to the early voting period, moving the start date up to Oct. 13 from Oct. 19, citing the coronavirus pandemic. In the lawsuit, filed Wednesday with the state Supreme Court, Abbott's intraparty critics say the move defied election law that requires early voting to start on the 17th day before the election.

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/23/texas-republicans-greg-abbott-early-voting/

[jimmyjazz 47205]

Bernie talk not going away.

[Voldemort86 2259]

47 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

100%. The GOP is also facing a big risk if a higher percentage of their voters are waiting until Nov 3rd to vote. COVID could be rising in some areas that will scare people off. Lines may look longer, due to social distancing, which could scare people off. Texas in-person voting will definitely take longer due to the removal of straight ticket. Any bad weather plus long, slow lines will decrease turnout.

GOTV is facing unique challenges due to 2020.

 

I’m definitely hoping for a huge thunderstorm or what meteorologists call a “ wash out” in some battleground states on Election Day when Republican voters will definitely outnumber democrat voters. 
 

the combination of Covid 19 / social distancing / long lines  and a massive down pour would probably make a lot of trumpers give up and go home.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

G Elliot and Nate S at each other’s throats.  Former calling the latter a fraud, latter blocking the former. Lulz. 
 

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

G Elliot >>>> Nate 

[Texaspython 231]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

In what sense did he "need" any of that?

In a media acceptance sense and Twitter blue-check sense, sure, he "needed" that. But in terms of voters? Who are the voting bases that Harris brings to Biden that he didn't already have?

It's a serious question. I genuinely have no idea.

Two old white guys on the ticket? It’s like progressives want to lose.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just now, Texaspython said:

Two old white guys on the ticket? It’s like progressives want to lose.

Yeah, historically old white guys are terrible candidates when it comes to winning elections. 

Going with two young black women would have been much more strategic. 

[Texaspython 231]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yeah, historically old white guys are terrible candidates when it comes to winning elections. 

Going with two young black women would have been much more strategic. 

Yup, and that’s history for Dems, thank God. I like the current ticket’s balance.

[RexWilson 1502]

26 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Republicans suing Greg Abbott over early voting because of course they are

In July, Abbott added six days to the early voting period, moving the start date up to Oct. 13 from Oct. 19, citing the coronavirus pandemic. In the lawsuit, filed Wednesday with the state Supreme Court, Abbott's intraparty critics say the move defied election law that requires early voting to start on the 17th day before the election.

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/23/texas-republicans-greg-abbott-early-voting/

I saw this yesterday. I agree with the extension. Is there a realistic chance it gets overturned? 

[Voldemort86 2259]

I call total bullshit on the “ democrats are less likely to vote if they think trump will steal the election”.

 

it sounds like another wish list GOP conspiracy theory cooked up by people detached from reality. Has anyone stopped to take a look at democratic fundraising lately? Numbers are going through the roof. People know this is their one and only chance to get rid of this grotesque, obese, retarded, childish, idiotic, loser of a president. I know democrats who will crawl over broken glass to vote Trump out.

[NAVY 6969]

27 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Republicans suing Greg Abbott over early voting because of course they are

In July, Abbott added six days to the early voting period, moving the start date up to Oct. 13 from Oct. 19, citing the coronavirus pandemic. In the lawsuit, filed Wednesday with the state Supreme Court, Abbott's intraparty critics say the move defied election law that requires early voting to start on the 17th day before the election.

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/23/texas-republicans-greg-abbott-early-voting/

Fuck these douche bags. JFC 

[Gatorubet 30720]

The only VP choice that would've moved the needle for Biden was the old Vermonter, but id.pol that will eventually gain Biden nothing

The 5% less black vote in 2016 than either Obama year allowed Trump to win in a squeak. No African American Veep and an all white ticket would ensure a repeat of 2016.

Your take is nonsense.

[Gatorubet 30720]

 

My yard sign

[TexArcher 39072]

53 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Biden picked Kamala for some of the same reasons Obama picked Biden and it has little to do with how good a VP/President she might make.  It was the “do no harm” choice that Presidential candidates almost always go with.  The VP pick is rarely used as an offensive weapon to gain votes.  Sometimes it’s used to secure a swing state like Kaine but that’s about it. I do not agree with these strategies but it is what it is.

Disagree.  Biden is 30+ years older than Obama was when he was first elected.  His age matters, a succession plan matters, and he knows it.

I think some of y'all are selling Kamala short if you think she's nothing more than a safe pick, a do-no-harm pick.  She brings a lot to the table.

[G650 14437]

21 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

G Elliot and Nate S at each other’s throats.  Former calling the latter a fraud, latter blocking the former. Lulz. 
 

 

 

Nerd fight.

[Eastwood 4394]

39 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Republicans suing Greg Abbott over early voting because of course they are

In July, Abbott added six days to the early voting period, moving the start date up to Oct. 13 from Oct. 19, citing the coronavirus pandemic. In the lawsuit, filed Wednesday with the state Supreme Court, Abbott's intraparty critics say the move defied election law that requires early voting to start on the 17th day before the election.

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/23/texas-republicans-greg-abbott-early-voting/

I'm waiting to vote until Oct. 19 because of this. Last thing I want is to go cast my ballot during the extension period and then have a court throw that vote out because it determined that the extension was unlawful.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just now, TexArcher said:

She brings a lot to the table.

I used to think so too. She has a great hype machine to generate that perception and maybe that’s all that matters nowadays but when she gets challenged by reporters on issues, she has trouble.  She is all over the place with inconsistencies. Hopefully she can overcome those things but from what I’ve seen, she’s got a ways to go. 

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

Harris polls very well with suburban white women.

[pyrohornIII 4846]

15 hours ago, Skipper said:

How does anyone think this shit helps?   I don't know of a single person that gets these and isn't annoyed.  

These are what we call Tier 2 calls.  Made to people whose inclination per voting isn't clear in the voter database.  They are looking for potential D voters that the systems mis-categorized.   Case in point, I had a call from a guy in my county who registered in Oct.  But for some reason he was tagged a Rep, without having voted once in the state.  He just moved from Chicago.  

So when they get the note that someone leans one way or the other they are either put on the GOTV rolls, or not contacted again if def Red voter.   The time for persuasion calls is past, and now they are trying to just find as many Dems that might have been overlooked to add to GOTV campaign.  

Now if things go right, then the info is input and database is updated every night.  But there are definitely times it goes haywire.  

But that's why they are asking and how it helps going forward.

 

44 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Republicans suing Greg Abbott over early voting because of course they are

In July, Abbott added six days to the early voting period, moving the start date up to Oct. 13 from Oct. 19, citing the coronavirus pandemic. In the lawsuit, filed Wednesday with the state Supreme Court, Abbott's intraparty critics say the move defied election law that requires early voting to start on the 17th day before the election.

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/23/texas-republicans-greg-abbott-early-voting/

This will be another club in their bag if Trump loses Texas.  They will try to get the vote cancelled, and then swing it to appointed delegates.  

[bad_teammate 13524]

16 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

No African American Veep and an all white ticket would ensure a repeat of 2016.

I was going to ask why you think black voters are idiots who only think about skin color but then I saw you identify yourself as a Republican in the next post so it all made sense.

How did the black primary candidates do among black voters?

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Harris polls very well with suburban white women.

“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.” - Chuck Schumer, 2016

[thepop 4418]

9 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I'm waiting to vote until Oct. 19 because of this. Last thing I want is to go cast my ballot during the extension period and then have a court throw that vote out because it determined that the extension was unlawful.

wut....is this even possible? i was planning on voting ASAP

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

I was going to ask why you think black voters are idiots who only think about skin color but then I saw you identify yourself as a Republican in the next post so it all made sense.

How did the black primary candidates do among black voters?

“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.” - Chuck Schumer, 2016

Except that actually did happen in 2018.

[Eastwood 4394]

Just now, thepop said:

wut....is this even possible? i was planning on voting ASAP

Votes were thrown out in Bush v. Gore because they didn't meet a certain standard. I'm not taking the risk that some court does back flips to throw out my vote, which then goes to a freshly loaded SCOTUS.

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I'm waiting to vote until Oct. 19 because of this. Last thing I want is to go cast my ballot during the extension period and then have a court throw that vote out because it determined that the extension was unlawful.

Holy shit. I never thought of that. I will definitely wait too unless we hear of the shitty case being resolved in Abbott’s  favor.

[jimmyjazz 47205]

11 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I'm waiting to vote until Oct. 19 because of this. Last thing I want is to go cast my ballot during the extension period and then have a court throw that vote out because it determined that the extension was unlawful.

Jesus, the level of gamesmanship required just to feel confident that one's vote will be counted this election is insane.  I don't disagree with your strategy.

[pyrohornIII 4846]

8 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I'm waiting to vote until Oct. 19 because of this. Last thing I want is to go cast my ballot during the extension period and then have a court throw that vote out because it determined that the extension was unlawful.

I thought about that, but I imagine they will try to invalidate the whole early vote because of this.   Probably depends on how the early vote turns out.  But right now it looks like EV will lean D and Election Day will lean R.