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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

And in "toss that shit in the trash" polling:

Hill-HarrisX.

Trump 51% approval.

Biden 42, Trump 41.

They have both getting 39% of the female vote. They also have Biden up 45-42 among men. Trump only +1 among non-college crowd.

Biden 68% of the black vote to Trump's 11% with 21% undecided or other. 

Biden gets 45% of the hispanic vote to Trump's 29% with 26% undecided or other.

 

 

This poll has likely been posted and celebrated on the texags politics forum.

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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,560

Posted
Posted
On 5/20/2020 at 4:20 PM, gmr548 said:

Generally agree, but the polling was better for for Trump then. In the final week, post-Comey letter, Clinton was averaging +3 nationally. That's pretty close to what happened. State polls in MI, PA, and WI showed a tightening race after that, though Clinton still led. Between undecideds breaking for Trump and lackluster Democratic turnout, he was able to just get by in those states.

COVID could complicate turnout, but I think it's safe to say Democrats would inject themselves with COVID to vote Trump out, so I'm not terribly worried. There also aren't many people undecided on Donald Trump at this point, and that's not a good thing given his disapproval has been 50+ percent for essentially his entire presidency.

I fully acknowledge I probably overstate his chances based on nothing but pessimism/PTSD. There's not a data-based argument you can make that Trump has a serious chance at winning this election. The most favorable thing you can say is that a lot can change in six months.

Agreed completely and (I think it’s 350-380 EV for Biden as most likely) but here’s my question- does Biden have much room to grow?  I would wager that everyone has a pretty strong opinion on trump right now and the negative on Trump is all built in to Biden’s support. He’d obviously be better off if he’s above 50- is Biden’s upside or downside greater?  I can’t see votes in play more than about 5%.  I can’t see Trump

winning unless Biden really steps on his own dick. Of course- I lost a large bet on the 2016 election betting against Trump,  but I still think that was just Hillary hated and party in power fatigue. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,560

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

And in "toss that shit in the trash" polling:

Hill-HarrisX.

Trump 51% approval.

Biden 42, Trump 41.

They have both getting 39% of the female vote. They also have Biden up 45-42 among men. Trump only +1 among non-college crowd.

Biden 68% of the black vote to Trump's 11% with 21% undecided or other. 

Biden gets 45% of the hispanic vote to Trump's 29% with 26% undecided or other.

 

 

That looks like the worst poll I’ve ever seen. 

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The Dog

The Dog 44,771

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Fox is pretty fucking good at polling imo. I’ve never noticed any GOP slant. Feel like they try to get it right. I think they were an A rated pollster in the last election by 538

they are - and use two different polling firms. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

(I had to click the "show more pollsters" to get them to come up)

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,560

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

81 to 3 is pretty good, right?  I mean it's even a shade better than 77-0. 

I’m not buying 3%. I think Trump pulls at lest 6%. Boring ass Romney whose religion believes being black is the mark of Cain got 5% against the first black president. 5% has to be a floor I’d think. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9,989

Posted
Posted

While I think the Shy Trump Voter was definitely a thing in 2016, I don’t think it’s a thing in 2020.  It was more of a function of Clinton’s unpopularity and people not wanting to admit they were Trump curious in the face of societal disapproval.   This election it’s about Tribe. 
 

It’s kinda like by 2008: If the number of people who said they voted for Gore in 2000 had actually voted for Gore,  the man would have won in a landslide.

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6th Street

6th Street 6,655

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

While I think the Shy Trump Voter was definitely a thing in 2016, I don’t think it’s a thing in 2020.  It was more of a function of Clinton’s unpopularity and people not wanting to admit they were Trump curious in the face of societal disapproval.   This election it’s about Tribe. 
 

It’s kinda like by 2008: If the number of people who said they voted for Gore in 2000 had actually voted for Gore,  the man would have won in a landslide.

Agreed and the novelty of "oh he's not a DC insider, he's a businessman!" has quickly worn off so he's lost that camp that obviously feels led off a cliff.

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Gap03

Gap03 3,374

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

While I think the Shy Trump Voter was definitely a thing in 2016, I don’t think it’s a thing in 2020.  It was more of a function of Clinton’s unpopularity and people not wanting to admit they were Trump curious in the face of societal disapproval.   This election it’s about Tribe. 
 

It’s kinda like by 2008: If the number of people who said they voted for Gore in 2000 had actually voted for Gore,  the man would have won in a landslide.

That would make sense, but I'm still curious about the 12-14% in every poll that are unaccounted for.  Who are these people - Bernie / Amash / Gary Johnson voters?

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Jack Straw

Jack Straw 2,955

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

While I think the Shy Trump Voter was definitely a thing in 2016, I don’t think it’s a thing in 2020.  It was more of a function of Clinton’s unpopularity and people not wanting to admit they were Trump curious in the face of societal disapproval.   This election it’s about Tribe. 

i think its the opposite: i assume that anyone (or at least the overwhelming majority of them, I suppose some of them could be honestly considering a third party vote) who says that they are "undecided" at this point is either a Republican/Trump voter who is lying, or is a Trump voter who has enough snap and is embarrassed enough to admit that they will be voting for the biggest piece of shit on the planet.  

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6th Street

6th Street 6,655

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, kevwun said:

He's not winning Arizona.

He's got a shot there because of the Senate race. The D challenger Kelly is a well liked former astronaut, and he's running against someone named McSalley that was appointed by the gov and not elected I believe. 

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12,405

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

He's got a shot there because of the Senate race. The D challenger Kelly is a well liked former astronaut, and he's running against someone named McSalley that was appointed by the gov and not elected I believe. 

I believe kevwun was referring to Trump, as in "Trump's not winning Arizona."  And kevwun is right.  Biden has to be the favorite and if I were him I'd be running ads using Trump's own words to shit on McCain in McCain's last years.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,323

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

i'm all for shitty polls that show everything is a-ok with gop numbers.

Yep.  We know how that ends.  Assume in any poll there’s a significant number of Trump voters that won’t admit they’re voting for Trump - because there are.  

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The Dog

The Dog 44,771

Posted
Posted

For those of you worried about the "shy Trump voter", chew on this for a second from Charlie Cook: (NSIAP)

"I asked the Quinnipiac people -- they're terrific, by the way -- I asked them today if they could run something to see, okay, of the people that have an unfavorable view of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, how do they break? And Biden is ahead 49-18 among the people that dislike both of them while they cut by a 20-point margin against Hillary Clinton."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/05/20/charlie_cook_voters_that_dislike_both_trump_and_biden_will_vote_49-18_for_biden_in_2016_it_was_20_trump.html

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,219

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Wasn't FL like Biden +10 a month or so ago?  Or was that just FL olds?  Either way, what happened?

the olds.

biden doesn't need florida to win.  but trump needs florida and north carolina, and probably arizona.  and wisconsin.

the fact that georgia and texas are seen as "battleground" states is a pretty ominous sign for trump right now. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,323

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

For those of you worried about the "shy Trump voter", chew on this for a second from Charlie Cook: (NSIAP)

"I asked the Quinnipiac people -- they're terrific, by the way -- I asked them today if they could run something to see, okay, of the people that have an unfavorable view of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, how do they break? And Biden is ahead 49-18 among the people that dislike both of them while they cut by a 20-point margin against Hillary Clinton."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/05/20/charlie_cook_voters_that_dislike_both_trump_and_biden_will_vote_49-18_for_biden_in_2016_it_was_20_trump.html

I’m gonna stay worried til the very bitter end.  Wtf people? 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,967

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m gonna stay worried til the very bitter end.  Wtf people? 

Shy Trump voters know exactly how they will vote. Some were/are gettable, but that window is quickly closing. Antagonize them and they will vote in hordes. See 2016. I recommend ignoring them and hope the malaise sets in. We don't want them to become enthusiastic voters. 

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1,747

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why the tie in April?  Things were a shit show. 

In times of crisis, certain people feel that it’s important to stick by their leader. Almost like a wartime president. But then trump started to downplay the “war” and things went right back to normal in the polls.

Im also worried that people are not admitting they will vote for trump to pollsters. I know people that say they are undecided right now that will 100% vote for trump. They will wait for one election time issue to hold against biden and say they hate trump but couldn’t vote for a guy that is _______. Probably cognitive decline this time but they would find something no matter what.

These people piss me off more than the loud MAGA crowd. They want all the hatred and vitriol but are too chicken shit to take any of the blowback.

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,664

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

In times of crisis, certain people feel that it’s important to stick by their leader. Almost like a wartime president. But then trump started to downplay the “war” and things went right back to normal in the polls.

Im also worried that people are not admitting they will vote for trump to pollsters. I know people that say they are undecided right now that will 100% vote for trump. They will wait for one election time issue to hold against biden and say they hate trump but couldn’t vote for a guy that is _______. Probably cognitive decline this time but they would find something no matter what.

These people piss me off more than the loud MAGA crowd. They want all the hatred and vitriol but are too chicken shit to take any of the blowback.

 

No.  It really was an outlier.  Other polls from that time showed it a 5-8 point lead for Biden.  So it was a head-scratcher at the time, and is even more so now.

Hugo's right.  It's an outlier probably caused by some problem with the sample.  At this point, it really should just be ignored.

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