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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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The Dog

The Dog 44858

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Important....

Also...... Biden starting to press in Texas for an advantage.

 

O'Rourke has been begging the Biden campaign to make some effort in Texas. They have plenty of money and if the polls and information on the ground in the other "battleground" states are good enough then he should definitely make a play here. Still spend most of time and money on the other battlegrounds (and Georgia which I think may go Biden).

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

O'Rourke has been begging the Biden campaign to make some effort in Texas. They have plenty of money and if the polls and information on the ground in the other "battleground" states are good enough then he should definitely make a play here. Still spend most of time and money on the other battlegrounds (and Georgia which I think may go Biden).

He recently started investing in Ohio and Iowa. 
 

it seems like he has the resources to invest in Texas to help the numbers a little. The question is will he?

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1391

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Important....

Also...... Biden starting to press in Texas for an advantage.

 

Lincoln project dropped a million too. I really want him to win Texas because we could potentially know Trump is gone on election night. What a relief that would be and moots Trump's questioning the legitimacy of the election with all in person voting.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5366

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4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

BTW that Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania is horrifying for Trump. They have pretty consistently shown a much closer race. 

Pretty clear that the 538 model thinks whoever wins PA wins the election. Both the chance to win PA and chance to win overall have increased in lockstep from 69/31 on September 1st to 83/17 as of the latest update.

The Blue Wall states are all firmly in "Likely D" territory now:

MN 90%

MI 89%

PA 83%

WI 83%

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mchookem

mchookem 16765

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2 hours ago, Captainant said:

I suspect we're going to see an increasing rate of people being shitty about [NO POLITICS!!!!] as they lose their mob that supported their toxic mentality. More dog-whistling and using subtle talking points 

so DT is going to be even more intolerable? great.

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The Dog

The Dog 44858

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13 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

it seems like he has the resources to invest in Texas to help the numbers a little. The question is will he?

It really depends on the information they have. Even though the polls show the race in Texas as "close" Trump's share is consistently at or near 50%. If it appears that he will get that on election day then there's little reason to invest here as the probability of a win is very low. It's still a very red state overall in spite of the blue trends.

That said, they have to be tempted to give it a shot as a Biden win in Texas ends all doubt. Heck, a Biden win in Georgia might do the same - and there Biden is polling at or near 50% (basically the reverse of Texas).

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The Dog

The Dog 44858

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6 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Pretty clear that the 538 model thinks whoever wins PA wins the election. Both the chance to win PA and chance to win overall have increased in lockstep from 69/31 on September 1st to 83/17 as of the latest update.

Yeah it's currently the "most likely" tipping point state:

image.thumb.png.98540400d003ea7189e9191a99caad10.png

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
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9 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Lincoln project dropped a million too. I really want him to win Texas because we could potentially know Trump is gone on election night. What a relief that would be and moots Trump's questioning the legitimacy of the election with all in person voting.

Biden winning Ohio would also blow up the Trump narrative. The results will be in on election night and Ohio has a republican governor / Secretary of State.

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Red Five

Red Five 41736

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Posted (edited)

 

11 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Pretty clear that the 538 model thinks whoever wins PA wins the election. Both the chance to win PA and chance to win overall have increased in lockstep from 69/31 on September 1st to 83/17 as of the latest update.

The Blue Wall states are all firmly in "Likely D" territory now:

MN 90%

MI 89%

PA 83%

WI 83%

I just played around with the map, and gave Biden those four states. I then gave Trump Florida, NC, Texas, Iowa, Georgia, Arizona, and Ohio. Guess what?

Biden 278, Trump 260

He's fucked. 

 

 

 

Edited by Red Five
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6767

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2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

I know I've repeated it ad naseum on here, but please wait until the 19th. The 13th was an extension by Abbott that is under attack in the courts. Until it is a 100% settled matter, please plan on voting during the early voting period starting on the 19th. My concern is that the courts will find the extension illegal, thereby invalidating any votes cast between the 13th and the 19th. If you are able through your circumstances, I would wait until the 19th or later.

This will be/should be settled before the 13th.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

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15 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Lincoln project dropped a million too. I really want him to win Texas because we could potentially know Trump is gone on election night. What a relief that would be and moots Trump's questioning the legitimacy of the election with all in person voting.

I have been saying for months that it is very important for Biden to win Texas.  Regardless of who wins Texas, that will get called on Election Night because Texas has so few absentee/mail-in ballots.  If Biden wins Texas, then Trump has absolutely zero path to 270 electoral votes.  There is no way for him to challenge anything in the courts or in the House or in the streets.  It's fucking over.

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Dark Horse

Dark Horse 2427

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11 minutes ago, The Dog said:

It really depends on the information they have. Even though the polls show the race in Texas as "close" Trump's share is consistently at or near 50%. If it appears that he will get that on election day then there's little reason to invest here as the probability of a win is very low. It's still a very red state overall in spite of the blue trends.

They’re not cash poor like Trump. 
 

Dems are right to try to seize on the changing demographic in Texas. A blue Texas is the death knell for the Republican Party. 

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Pancho

Pancho 46300

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7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I have been saying for months that it is very important for Biden to win Texas.  Regardless of who wins Texas, that will get called on Election Night because Texas has so few absentee/mail-in ballots.  If Biden wins Texas, then Trump has absolutely zero path to 270 electoral votes.  There is no way for him to challenge anything in the courts or in the House or in the skreets.  It's fucking over.

FIFY

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21477

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18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ain't nuthin' wrong with that.  Best power ballad of all time, some solid slow dances in jr. high to that tune.

What exactly makes a slow dance a solid slow dance?  Some boobs pressing up against you?   Your hand getting a little lower on her back than it should?

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Goredho

Goredho 17652

Posted
Posted

I demand a Biden ad where he walks up a flight of stairs wearing a mask, then when he gets to the top, he turns to the camera and says...

"I just walked up a flight of stairs without almost dying.  Donald Trump can't do that right now because he has the coronavirus.  And he has the coronavirus because he's stupid.  He won't follow basic safety guidelines.  In fact, his stupidity and negligence has resulted in more than 210,000 Americans dead from Coronavirus.  You aren't stupid.  Vote for me on November 3rd."

Then he turns and starts walking up the next flight of stairs.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

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52 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Well, there's one way to put it.

 

while i agree that 57-41 looks crazy, part of me thinks, is it though?

trump's numbers have been pretty steady in every conceivable national snapshot at 40-43% for a long, long time.  he won 46% in 2016, but i think it's safe to say in your best nick cage voice, that "gosh, kind of a lot's happened since then."

even if you put trump up near 2016, let's say 45%.  then where does that leave biden?  most polling shows a much much smaller 3rd party voting bloc, so even then you're looking at something like 52-45, which would be a smaller delta than we've seen recently.  it also eclipses the 4.5 point imaginary threshold biden would need to clear in order to offset individual state irregularities or anomalies or whatever you want to call them.

if he's unable to campaign, and the virus lingers, and the numbers stay like this, and voters are as fired up as they seem to be (4mm votes in by oct 6th??) then why wouldn't we get a catastrophic wipeout? 

i mean, we're talking about the most unpopular (by the numbers) president of all time.  now he has an actual governing record, instead of just being an outsider wildcard looking to drain the swamp.  he's got dozens of groups bombarding social media to spread the anti-trump message.  he got impeached.  he's had countless former staffers, aides, relatives, business associates come out to tell stories about him which all seem to align in what can only be called an alarming fashion.  and he's running against a flawed but overwhelmingly decent man, instead of one of the more unlikable (by the numbers) candidates the dems have ever thrown out there.  to say nothing of the fact that he has now contracted the virus he was in charge of protecting the country from, but didn't, and 210,000 people are dead.  not the greatest resume.

years from now, when we look back on an electoral and popular vote wipeout, it won't take very many chapters in the history book to explain why.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1059

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3 hours ago, Eastwood said:

I know I've repeated it ad naseum on here, but please wait until the 19th. The 13th was an extension by Abbott that is under attack in the courts. Until it is a 100% settled matter, please plan on voting during the early voting period starting on the 19th. My concern is that the courts will find the extension illegal, thereby invalidating any votes cast between the 13th and the 19th. If you are able through your circumstances, I would wait until the 19th or later.

There’s no way the courts would invalidate the votes and not allow a re-vote. I love some doomsday porn as much as the next guy but I’m voting on the 13th. 

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C-Man

C-Man 27779

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Posted
2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

while i agree that 57-41 looks crazy, part of me thinks, is it though?

trump's numbers have been pretty steady in every conceivable national snapshot at 40-43% for a long, long time.  he won 46% in 2016, but i think it's safe to say in your best nick cage voice, that "gosh, kind of a lot's happened since then."

even if you put trump up near 2016, let's say 45%.  then where does that leave biden?  most polling shows a much much smaller 3rd party voting bloc, so even then you're looking at something like 52-45, which would be a smaller delta than we've seen recently.  it also eclipses the 4.5 point imaginary threshold biden would need to clear in order to offset individual state irregularities or anomalies or whatever you want to call them.

if he's unable to campaign, and the virus lingers, and the numbers stay like this, and voters are as fired up as they seem to be (4mm votes in by oct 6th??) then why wouldn't we get a catastrophic wipeout? 

i mean, we're talking about the most unpopular (by the numbers) president of all time.  now he has an actual governing record, instead of just being an outsider wildcard looking to drain the swamp.  he's got dozens of groups bombarding social media to spread the anti-trump message.  he got impeached.  he's had countless former staffers, aides, relatives, business associates come out to tell stories about him which all seem to align in what can only be called an alarming fashion.  and he's running against a flawed but overwhelmingly decent man, instead of one of the more unlikable (by the numbers) candidates the dems have ever thrown out there.  to say nothing of the fact that he has now contracted the virus he was in charge of protecting the country from, but didn't, and 210,000 people are dead.  not the greatest resume.

years from now, when we look back on an electoral and popular vote wipeout, it won't take very many chapters in the history book to explain why.

I didn't vote in 2016 as I didn't like either candidate AT ALL. I cannot wait to vote for Biden on 11/3. I think there are a lot of people out there like me.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106889

Posted
Posted
Just now, Patrick Bateman said:

Biden's having a good week..... but still 30 days away, the lead will narrow.

 

That poll seems cheesy.  I'm pretty sure we'll see a lot of Biden's lead melt away closer to the election. So we all need to make sure our friends ALL go vote, in queso the race narrows.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That poll seems cheesy.  I'm pretty sure we'll see a lot of Biden's lead melt away closer to the election. So we all need to make sure our friends ALL go vote, in queso the race narrows.

It's definitely going to melt away. The people who moved away from him after Covid will be right back once he's healthy and out being his usual asshole self in a couple of weeks. A month might as well be a year in this election. We'll get back to Biden in the +5-7 range by Nov 3. It's always been a 5-7% race.

Edited by BradInATX
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horn4life

horn4life 3838

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Posted
1 hour ago, conVINCEd said:

What exactly makes a slow dance a solid slow dance?  Some boobs pressing up against you?   Your hand getting a little lower on her back than it should?

The little finger should align with the top of the butt crack...  that is all...

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8937

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Posted

I had a horrible thought when I read about all the early mail in ballots being received. Adding to that, every accusation from Dotard is a confession, and his railing about illegal mail in ballots. Not to be too conspiratorial, but what if these ballots are indeed illegal, but it's Dotard's team that is doing it and sending them in. Ok, probably not realistic, but who the hell knows these days. 

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