2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Jive Turkey 12997]

 

[immamac 44343]

6 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

lol so his only complaint about Joe and his town hall was that he did so well that he was a disgrace to our country?

[Saint Tacky 1647]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

My concern is that the courts will find the extension illegal, thereby invalidating any votes cast between the 13th and the 19th. If you are able through your circumstances, I would wait until the 19th or later.

Bear in mind SCOTUS ruled against South Carolina Democrats yesterday and overturned a federal court ruling that waived the necessity of a witness's signature on that state's mail-in ballots, but ruled the ballots already sent in without a witness should be counted. They didn't list any dissenting justices and three justices voted to throw them altogether (Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch).

Bottom line is that decisions regarding ballots and elections belong to state lawmakers and if those lawmakers choose to ignore medical evidence and scientific advice, so be it - federal judges can't second-guess any decisions that state lawmaker's make to address COVID-19 and the election (or opt not).

The distinction in Texas is that it's the Governor's extension. It will be interesting. To your point though, a challenge to the extension might meet the same fate insofar as those votes cast before the 19th, so why take a chance.

[bad_teammate 13514]

I wish Joe would've run in 2016

[VivaNaranja 466]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That poll seems cheesy.  I'm pretty sure we'll see a lot of Biden's lead melt away closer to the election. So we all need to make sure our friends ALL go vote, in queso the race narrows.

That's a gouda idea. Can't treat this election Havartidly. There's no whey Trump pulls it out if we all show up

[Pig Bellmont 8885]

So the Presidential Debate Committee surely won’t allow a contagious Trump to fly and attend in person in Miami, right? They will make both candidates appear remotely... right?

[wildcat09 29579]

20 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

There’s no way the courts would invalidate the votes and not allow a re-vote. I love some doomsday porn as much as the next guy but I’m voting on the 13th. 

Counterpoint: Chief Justice John Roberts. He's never seen a state's decision to suppress the vote that he didn't wholeheartedly support.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3555]

Trump picks up another winning endorsement.

[Neonmoon 38130]

Wait till Death chooses a candidate

[Longhorn94 2501]

while i have no doubt the polls will tighten, the big lead at this point will probably cause Trump's campaign to panic and to fire both barrels of whatever "October surprise" they are holding out hope will work earlier than they originally planned. 

[Dbeasy 15593]

I enjoy the polls. But I'm inclined not to believe any of them.  I've been bitten before

Especially since the Russians will be changing the votes inside the voting machines and no one will ever know it.

[Ghost of LL 15698]

23 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

It's definitely going to melt away. The people who moved away from him after Covid will be right back once he's healthy and out being his usual asshole self in a couple of weeks. A month might as well be a year in this election. We'll get back to Biden in the +5-7 range by Nov 3. It's always been a 5-7% race.

I'm just not sure.  Trump seems to want to go all-in on litigating the COVID.  He wants to make it a whole thing that he's superman because he survived the COVID.  But 75% of the country thinks he's an asshole for getting the COVID in the first place and spreading it around.

COVID is a disaster for Trump.  If everyone casts their ballot based on who they trust to deal with the pandemic, Biden wins this thing 2-to-1.  Trump has some strengths to which he could play.  For instance, people still (incredibly) trust him over Biden on the economy by a somewhat narrow margin.  But Trump isn't playing up the economy.  He's even abandoned "law & order."  His ego demands that everyone know that he's the COVID destroyer.

You posit that it's going to revert to the mean.  And reversion to the mean is never a bad bet.  But what I'm saying is--maybe it doesn't.

[C-Man 27779]

30 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

On the latest John Oliver episode he ran a clip of a black guy who stood in line for over 7 hours to vote. I forget what state he was in.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

If everyone casts their ballot based on who they trust to deal with the pandemic, Biden wins this thing 2-to-1. 

and if everyone casts their ballot after Trump's COVID plan is fully implemented, Biden wins this thing literally 2-to-1.

[4th&Five 41999]

Georgia. He's at 5:19.

Responding to C-Man

Edited October 6, 2020 by 4th&Five

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

2 hours ago, Red Five said:

 

I just played around with the map, and gave Biden those four states. I then gave Trump Florida, NC, Texas, Iowa, Georgia, Arizona, and Ohio. Guess what?

Biden 278, Trump 260

He's fucked. 

 

 

 

This is what I don't understand about the bed wetting dems on here and the people who think Trump is going to win in my real life.  It's patently fucking obvious and has been since the middle of 2017 that Trump ain't winning any Hillary state, and that means he has to win one of those blue wall states, and he's been massively underwater for a looooooong time.

I suspected he had a really good chance to lose- b/c of this dynamic- even if the economy was hunky dory but when covid blew that up you just had to say- what- a traditionally blue state like those is voting for Trump in the time of people dying and going BK?  Really?  Really!!!????

All the other shit is background noise that has nothing to do with who wins the White House and never was going to have anything to do with who won the WH.  Yes, he's fucked. The question is whether or not it's with a lubed up pencil dick or a prison style gang rape or something in between. I'm betting in between but closer to the prison scenario then the gentlemanly and almost consensual fuck you'd be talking about at 278 to 260.  

[C-Man 27779]

 

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm just not sure.  Trump seems to want to go all-in on litigating the COVID.  He wants to make it a whole thing that he's superman because he survived the COVID.  But 75% of the country thinks he's an asshole for getting the COVID in the first place and spreading it around.

COVID is a disaster for Trump.  If everyone casts their ballot based on who they trust to deal with the pandemic, Biden wins this thing 2-to-1.  Trump has some strengths to which he could play.  For instance, people still (incredibly) trust him over Biden on the economy by a somewhat narrow margin.  But Trump isn't playing up the economy.  He's even abandoned "law & order."  His ego demands that everyone know that he's the COVID destroyer.

You posit that it's going to revert to the mean.  And reversion to the mean is never a bad bet.  But what I'm saying is--maybe it doesn't.

The sad truth is COVID-19 is the ONLY reason Trump is going to lose in a month. Take the pandemic away and there's no way he doesn't win re-election. Funny hill for him to die on here -- but he's not a smart man.

[BrickHorn 18447]

2 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Georgia

On my mind.

[C-Man 27779]

2 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Georgia. He's at 5:19.

Responding to C-Man

Thanks for the assist. I thought Oliver's reaction to the last week was rather restrained all things considered.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

 

The sad truth is COVID-19 is the ONLY reason Trump is going to lose in a month. Take the pandemic away and there's no way he doesn't win re-election. Funny hill for him to die on here -- but he's not a smart man.

hard disagree.  i put real money down on trump losing back in february.  i've said since 2018 his loss was almost guaranteed, based on (1) demographic changes all moving against him (2020 electorate being browner, more educated, more urban) in an environment when he did no work to expand his demographics; (2) voter turnout.

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

43 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

It's definitely going to melt away. The people who moved away from him after Covid will be right back once he's healthy and out being his usual asshole self in a couple of weeks. A month might as well be a year in this election. We'll get back to Biden in the +5-7 range by Nov 3. It's always been a 5-7% race.

Yep. That's what I've been saying forever but with 6-8.  That's where I'm betting it ends up. But if I'm wrong by 4 points its way more likely to be Biden by 10 then Trump by 2. I don't buy any scenario that isn't somewhere between Biden +2 and BIden +12.  

[Bookman 4760]

3 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

The sad truth is COVID-19 is the ONLY reason Trump is going to lose in a month. Take the pandemic away and there's no way he doesn't win re-election. Funny hill for him to die on here -- but he's not a smart man.

I disagree. Covid was an opportunity to save his Presidency. He got a mulligan and he shanked it.  

[heso 2863]

40 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

It’s an absolute crime that anyone has to wait in a line like that to vote. 

[Longhorn94 2501]

The only way Trump wins is through cheating and suppression. In a completely fair and free election, Biden wins by 10+. With the cheating, Biden will still win by 8 and thats a mudholing in today's climate. I have Biden winning 338 to Trump's 200. 

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

35 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I wish Joe would've run in 2016

I do to. In that alternate Universe he fills the Merrit Garland nomination, the GOP appointee doesn't retire, the GOP buttfucks the Dems in the 2018 congressional and has both houses of congress and Paul Ryan is fixing to win the presidency over a tired and worn out Biden, and the nation isn't stained by the Trump agenda. Or, pretty much exactly what happened in 1988-1992. It's really hard for the same party to keep control for 4 consecutive terms in the white house in our modern world I think.  

That's my political what might have been.  

[Irwin F Fletcher 3555]

I disagree. Covid was an opportunity to save his Presidency. He got a mulligan and he shanked it.  

This. Because Trump makes everything about Trump he missed a golden opportunity to at least try and rally the country together, show a fraction of empathy and just a little common sense and he would win the election in a landslide.

Election wise, fortunately nobody can tell Trump what to do and Trump went on being shitty Trump. Even with his recent battle with Covid he can't be humble, he has been gifted a turnover in the last two minutes of a close game and he can't convert for points. He's that shitty of a leader.

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

hard disagree.  i put real money down on trump losing back in february.  i've said since 2018 his loss was almost guaranteed, based on (1) demographic changes all moving against him (2020 electorate being browner, more educated, more urban) in an environment when he did no work to expand his demographics; (2) voter turnout.

Yep. He was always shaky to win one of those blue wall states which he needed to in order to win the presidency. I don't think even if we'd never have heard of Covid he would have threaded that needle again.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

looks like the consensus map moved AZ out of toss up and IA into toss up for the first time.

 

 

[BrickHorn 18447]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I do to. In that alternate Universe he fills the Merrit Garland nomination, the GOP appointee doesn't retire, the GOP buttfucks the Dems in the 2018 congressional and has both houses of congress and Paul Ryan is fixing to win the presidency over a tired and worn out Biden, and the nation isn't stained by the Trump agenda. Or, pretty much exactly what happened in 1988-1992. It's really hard for the same party to keep control for 4 consecutive terms in the white house in our modern world I think.  

That's my political what might have been.  

This is like wishing that the Spanish Flu never happened but only because it denied us several more years of beautiful trench warfare.

[thepop 4418]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

34 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm just not sure.  Trump seems to want to go all-in on litigating the COVID.  He wants to make it a whole thing that he's superman because he survived the COVID.  But 75% of the country thinks he's an asshole for getting the COVID in the first place and spreading it around.

COVID is a disaster for Trump.  If everyone casts their ballot based on who they trust to deal with the pandemic, Biden wins this thing 2-to-1.  Trump has some strengths to which he could play.  For instance, people still (incredibly) trust him over Biden on the economy by a somewhat narrow margin.  But Trump isn't playing up the economy.  He's even abandoned "law & order."  His ego demands that everyone know that he's the COVID destroyer.

You posit that it's going to revert to the mean.  And reversion to the mean is never a bad bet.  But what I'm saying is--maybe it doesn't.

Good points here, and I hope you're right. You have to imagine whatever few competent advisors he has left are telling him exactly what you said. But as you stated, he cares more about his own ego than sticking to a strategy. He thinks his gut and business sense have gotten him to where he is today over all of the nerds and number crunchers around him and he's going to do whatever he, the king of business and winning, feels like doing.

My statement is exactly what you said, I'm assuming a reversion to the mean, because we've seen it happen probably 7-8 times just in the last six months alone. The cycle of "Trump doing something stupid->loses numbers in the polls->gains ground back within a few weeks" just keeps repeating. Maybe there is a bridge too far for most voters that will break that cycle. Maybe it's Covid. Of everything, it's the one that hits closest to home. Trump being a cheater, a dickhead, a tax evader, a Russian asset, etc. don't really hit Bob and Nancy on the homefront, but Covid does.

So you could be right. Hope so. I've just seen all of us, including myself, say "THIS is the straw that will break the camel's back" a few too many times to fall for it again. 

 

Also FWIW and I'm not sure if responding to your post is even the right medium for this, but I don't want to double post. I'm also open to the fact that we could see huge, huge turnout that will essentially break the Likely Voter models (we saw some of this in 2016). Biden is the only one with upside in that regard, Trump's upside is already baked into the fact that we assume Biden needs 4% or more in the national polls to win the EV. His steady 6% lead should be enough, if he can run the clock out.

Sort of what you were saying @Wulaw Horn. If we assume the Likely Voter model could be off by 3%, I think there's a reasonable chance it pushes Biden to +9% but almost no chance it goes the other way in favor of Trump to Biden +3% (which could get dangerous).

Edited October 6, 2020 by BradInATX

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

This is like wishing that the Spanish Flu never happened but only because it denied us several more years of beautiful trench warfare.

You have your dreams I have mine. I'm a conservative never Trumper.  I think what I laid out is reasonable and likely to have been what happened. It's essentially what the trend line has been since 2008 when Biden was elected in the house/senate and then the in power party losing at a 4th time in a row to hold the white house.  Instead Trump won, dumbed us all down, probably destroyed the GOP party, and probably long term destroyed the ability to govern this county as a center right country, as it's basically been governed since WWII.  Which is my opinion the best America. 

[Your Mom 4969]

19 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

hard disagree.  i put real money down on trump losing back in february.  i've said since 2018 his loss was almost guaranteed, based on (1) demographic changes all moving against him (2020 electorate being browner, more educated, more urban) in an environment when he did no work to expand his demographics; (2) voter turnout.

I with you except for voter turn out.  A very vocal minority of today’s youth talk big about voting every election and then it never happens.  Each time is going to finally be the year we really get the vote out... until we don’t. Each election matters so much more than the one before it... until it doesn’t. I think Biden wins but I expect all this VOTE! talk is just gonna be another letdown in numbers.  The young won’t vote again.

The “This is the year we finally get the vote out!” crowd reminds me of the “Show me a loss! We’re Top 10!!” crowd every fall. Been burned too many times to buy it. 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Your Mom

[Brisketexan 106889]

4 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

Look at the delta in those margins of Biden v. Hillary's performance.....they are razor-thin.

This race is and will remain a toss-up.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just now, Your Mom said:

I with you except for voter turn out.  A very vocal minority talk big about voting every election and then it never happens.  Each time is going to finally be the year we really get the vote out... until we don’t. Each election matters so much more than the one before it... until it doesn’t. I think Biden wins but I expect all this VOTE! talk is just gonna be another letdown in numbers.  

The “This is the year we finally get the vote out!” crowd reminds me of the “Show me a loss! We’re Top 10!!” crowd every fall. Been burned too many times to buy it. 

the big counter to this is 2018.  everyone was fired up, and it gave me the confidence to be confident at that time.  i think that carries over to now.

 

 

[BrickHorn 18447]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You have your dreams I have mine.

I have the same dreams you do. They’re called “nightmares.” 

[thepop 4418]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Look at the delta in those margins of Biden v. Hillary's performance.....they are razor-thin.

This race is and will remain a toss-up.

Only if there is a Comey October surprise. Also there are other numbers that suggest the races are not similar (likability for one).

[4th&Five 41999]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Look at the delta in those margins of Biden v. Hillary's performance.....they are razor-thin.

This race is and will remain a toss-up.

I'd be more interested to see the margins after the Comey letter.

Edited October 6, 2020 by 4th&Five
pop beat me

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Look at the delta in those margins of Biden v. Hillary's performance.....they are razor-thin.

This race is and will remain a toss-up.

Frank luntz is a clown. You are wrong and have been for a full 2 years, as shown by the 2018 election. I admire the performative part of the performance in sticking to the bit, but it's not close and won't be close. 

[henrygandorf 29225]

am i the only one who has a weirdly good feeling about ohio?

back when they showed a voter registration trend map (1-2 years ago), ohio and west virginia (i think) were the only two concerning states, in that either the population was shrinking, or more republicans were registering than democrats, whereas about 15+ states showed the opposite.  i kinda wrote them off then and forgot about them.  but if they're in line with nearby states and the trends we see there, you never know.

also dewine and some of the other top level gop there seem to not be quite as crooked as we're used to seeing at the national level or texas, georgia, florida, etc.  obviously it doesn't matter if biden actually wins ohio.  if ohio is a tossup, trump is dunzo washington.

like dwight said, "if i'm dead, you guys have been dead for weeks."

[Irwin F Fletcher 3555]

Look at the delta in those margins of Biden v. Hillary's performance.....they are razor-thin.
This race is and will remain a toss-up.

However, where are we with undecided voters this year? That is a huge difference between 2016 and today.

[BrickHorn 18447]

Just now, thepop said:

Only if there is a Comey October surprise. Also there are other numbers that suggest the races are not similar (likability for one).

Another difference is that there were typically far more undecideds in the 2016 polls. Not sure if that’s true of the polls as of Oct 6, though.

[SimonBolivar 11064]

9 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

[The Dog 44859]

4 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

Hrmmmm....vote share in those polls (RCP averages) on 10/6:

Florida (Hillabeast/Biden): 44.8/48.2

Pennsylvania: 46.8/50.7

Michigan: 44.3/48.6

Wisconsin: 44.3/50.2

North Carolina: 44.7/48.2

 

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

I have the same dreams you do. They’re called “nightmares.” 

Has America since 1945 really been a nightmare for you?  It's been a center right country since then.  A world where Biden ran and won in 2016 is a continuation of the same. Trump broke it all (the question is did he do it for good or not) and what comes next is super liberal and progressive, I think, unless the stink of Trump wears off way sooner than I think it will.  We shall see. But Trump was the chaos agent that progressives needed. 

[Irwin F Fletcher 3555]

Hrmmmm....vote share in those polls (RCP averages) on 10/6:
Florida (Hillabeast/Biden): 44.8/48.2
Pennsylvania: 46.8/50.7
Michigan: 44.3/48.6
Wisconsin: 44.3/50.2
North Carolina: 44.7/48.2
 

Needs repeating!

[henrygandorf 29225]

and to add to the "october surprise" conversation - i've been positing for months that he would announce a covid vaccine on november 1st (among other things), whether there's one out of trials or not - he'll announce that it's ready.  it's obvious, everyone can see it coming, nobody will care.  but i wonder, with trump getting it, and "beating" it like he'd have us believe, does that remove some of the bang he might've gotten from a vaccine announcement?

wait, you already told us it's not a big deal, to not let it dominate us, and to go back to work.  if you can beat it, we can beat it, right?  oh, a vaccine?  cool cool cool.

[henrygandorf 29225]

4 minutes ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Look at the delta in those margins of Biden v. Hillary's performance.....they are razor-thin.
This race is and will remain a toss-up.

However, where are we with undecided voters this year? That is a huge difference between 2016 and today.

this x1000.

a 6 point lead looks a lot different when it's 52-46 than when it's 44-38.  i'm sure someone can pull those numbers to compare.

also look at the trajectory.  hillary had been falling since the summer.  biden is actually widening an already historically steady advantage.

dude is toast, brisket.  you know it, i know it.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34104]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Frank luntz is a clown. You are wrong and have been for a full 2 years, as shown by the 2018 election. I admire the performative part of the performance in sticking to the bit, but it's not close and won't be close. 

i'm personally pretty fucking tired of the performance, but it is what it is, I guess.

[Brisketexan 106889]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

this x1000.

a 6 point lead looks a lot different when it's 52-46 than when it's 44-38.  i'm sure someone can pull those numbers to compare.

also look at the trajectory.  hillary had been falling since the summer.  biden is actually widening an already historically steady advantage.

dude is toast, brisket.  you know it, i know it.

I know nothing (ask my wife, she'll back me up on that).

Also, the Atlanta Falcons say "hi."  Fuck leads.  I don't believe in them.  I won't believe that it's over unless/until Biden is actually sworn in on January 20th - Trump and the GOP won't stop fighting until then, regardless of the votes.