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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47809

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Your record 3-5 years ago was pretty good.  But you've gone on a losing streak starting in 2018.  You didn't think the Dems would take the House; you were way wrong.  You didn't think the Dems would do very well in Texas; you were wrong (we took the five most important intermediate courts of appeals).  You thought the Dems would have a long and self-destructive primary fight; you were wrong.

You had a hot hand.  But your luck's turned.  I'll put my money on the Don't Pass bar if you're the shooter, thank you very much.

 

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Red Five

Red Five 40592

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26 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Dumb.

You're saying it's unreasonable to give Trump a chance to win the same states that he won last time? Two states in which he outperformed polling by 5% from polls->election, and which he is currently trailing by about 5-6% in the polls?

 

 

It was a joke. But, that's a map where Biden isn't winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. So yeah, if that happens Biden isn't going to win. But also if that happens, it means votes were altered. 

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29183

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33 minutes ago, G650 said:

So this motherfucker is out of his gourd right now. He just told the negotiators to break off stimulus talks until after the election.

He's trailing Biden by 9 points, stimulus bill polled at about 75%, and Democrats were gonna let him mail a 1200 dollar check to every American with his name on it and he was like "nah".

Either he's pretty confident Putin will hack some voting machines where it matters, or he's resigned to defeat and has started burning everything down around him (which is what every sane person has expected him to do if he loses). 

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G650

G650 13964

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Posted
Just now, wildcat09 said:

Either he's pretty confident Putin will hack some voting machines where it matters, or he's resigned to defeat and has started burning everything down around him (which is what every sane person has expected him to do if he loses). 

 

I think it's the latter.

 

Just now, cactusflinthead said:

Wtf is he doing now? He had a chance to fork over cash with another round of stimulus and he hangs up the phone?!

It's stunningly stupid. 

 

I'm legit gobsmacked.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104426

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

I think it's the latter.

 

 

I'm legit gobsmacked.

It's just plain old blackmail and threats -- it's how authoritarian rulers rule.  This is always the endgame of authoritarians.

Can he get more votes with fear than with love?  I think the answer is likely "no."

This will cost him votes.  It could be a significant number of votes.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Trump is employing the old “murder-suicide” strategy. He’s going to wreck as much shit as possible on the way out.  

as much as i disagree with hugo's takes sometimes, this makes the most sense.  crash the world, then remark how badly things seem to be going now that he's out of office.

"will the stimulus save me?"

"probably not."

"then fuck it."

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Red Five said:

It was a joke. But, that's a map where Biden isn't winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. So yeah, if that happens Biden isn't going to win. But also if that happens, it means votes were altered. 

Those are all the same states he won last time, minus PA. It's not some sort of bizarre "everything would have to fall perfectly wrong and the chances are one in a billion" scenario - it happened four years ago. 

If you take the numbers Trump outperformed polling by last time and apply them to current polling, Trump gets WI, OH, NC,  GA, and IA back into his column. It puts MI within one percentage point, easily within the MOE of often-flawed state polls.

In that nightmare scenario, our hopes are all on Florida, which I don't trust at all.

Entire point was that it's not at all unreasonable to see plausible paths to victory for Trump, despite all of the reasons for optimism. If the polls were to tighten back towards Trump a few percentage points, it could get interesting. I'm not saying it's what's going to happen, but there's a lot of "it's over" talk when it's not at all. The reality is somewhere between Brisket's sky-is-falling and gandorf's "it's in the bag" takes, both of which are misguided. I think 538 is pretty close with their 80% prediction. Maybe a little high given Trump might have a stunt or two up his sleeve still (Vaccine, Barr). But there's a lot of denial and wishcasting happening here around Trump not having any chance to win.

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Pasken

Pasken 1309

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Posted
2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

as much as i disagree with hugo's takes sometimes, this makes the most sense.  crash the world, then remark how badly things seem to be going now that he's out of office.

"will the stimulus save me?"

"probably not."

"then fuck it."

and Mitch doesn't care because he would rather see Americans suffer if a President is in power. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104426

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Posted
1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

as much as i disagree with hugo's takes sometimes, this makes the most sense.  crash the world, then remark how badly things seem to be going now that he's out of office.

"will the stimulus save me?"

"probably not."

"then fuck it."

And, there may be some of this.  "Don't love me enough?   THEN BURN."  It's not just insane, it's EXACTLY what you expect from a cruel narcissist.  It's how all of their "relationships" end.  Anyone who stops with their love/adoration of the narcissist isn't just cast out, they become the target of hatred, slander, etc.

He thinks the American people no longer worship him.....so now we must suffer.  It would fit the pattern.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104426

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5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The reality is somewhere between Brisket's sky-is-falling 

Reminder, my take is "it is and will remain a tossup."  Just too much chaos, too many variables.

That said.....what he's done today to torpedo stimulus, make the market crash and cause millions upon millions to suffer.....that's just some brutal self-sabotage.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104426

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I started a thread in August about stimulus on here. I’m legit surprised this layup didn’t happen. 

I am too.  It's an easy win to claim.  Thus, my alternate hypothesis -- that he's now decided that we the people don't love the narcissist enough, so now we must be punished.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11667

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11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Those are all the same states he won last time, minus PA. It's not some sort of bizarre "everything would have to fall perfectly wrong and the chances are one in a billion" scenario - it happened four years ago. 

If you take the numbers Trump outperformed polling by last time and apply them to current polling, Trump gets WI, OH, NC,  GA, and IA back into his column. It puts MI within one percentage point, easily within the MOE of often-flawed state polls.

In that nightmare scenario, our hopes are all on Florida, which I don't trust at all.

Entire point was that it's not at all unreasonable to see plausible paths to victory for Trump, despite all of the reasons for optimism. If the polls were to tighten back towards Trump a few percentage points, it could get interesting. I'm not saying it's what's going to happen, but there's a lot of "it's over" talk when it's not at all. The reality is somewhere between Brisket's sky-is-falling and gandorf's "it's in the bag" takes, both of which are misguided.

the people that know things still say there's a 1 in 5 chance Trump wins.  we're in mendoza line territory, but yeah, it isn't impossible.  it is just so likely at this point that you can reliably behave accordingly.

but my basic argument is 1 in 5 is optimistic, because some of the unknowns aren't quite unknown, like turnout.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the people that know things still say there's a 1 in 5 chance Trump wins.  we're in mendoza line territory, but yeah, it isn't impossible.  it is just so likely at this point that you can reliably behave accordingly.

but my basic argument is 1 in 5 is optimistic, because some of the unknowns aren't quite unknown, like turnout.

You also have to keep in mind that 1 in 5 is basically Biden's peak and you're assuming no regression back towards the mean like we were discussing earlier.

Although this stimulus thing might just go ahead and ensure that. Damn he is stupid.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

Brisket has a point. Those denying the potential impact of voter suppression and manipulation by (or in favor of) the GOP are blissfully boiling frogs. America has changed since 2016. I expect to see reports of rampant voter intimidation, seizing of ballots, court challenges, and inexplicable poll-defying tallies in key districts. This election won’t necessarily be decided by who gets the most votes.

This isn’t a 3rd world country yet.  If trump wins again, it probably will be by 2022 or 2024 after he sends everything he wants done to his precious Supreme Court. 
 

police would probably show up to maintain order at the polls. I doubt there will be a widespread effort to block people from voting. I don’t think there’s any precedent for that. Has it happened before?
 

there shouldn’t be any “ it’s over” talk with 3 debates left, but Trump is in deep trouble. He’s in a much worse predicament than he had in 2016. There’s not nearly as many pissed of Bernie bro’s to throw their votes away. Trumps numbers have deteriorated with 3 categories who got him over the top last time. Those categories are: People who hate both candidates, seniors, and independents. He’s lost the suburbs who still somewhat supported him in 2016.

the numbers ( or polls) don’t look good. The Biden campaign is expanding the map and competing in more areas. The White House is a contagion zone. Most of Trumps lieutenants are sick with the virus. Trump has the virus. Trump was heavily criticized for his Covid joy ride. He just let Pelosi own him on the stimulus. 

Trump pulled off a Tennessee titans miracle play in 2016 and barely won. I just don’t think it’s in the cards this time with all that’s against him. People can’t wait to vote this year. Enthusiasm hasn’t dropped since 2018 at all. Trump needs a low turn out Election, it won’t be.

 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14952

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Posted
This is what I don't understand about the bed wetting dems on here and the people who think Trump is going to win in my real life.  It's patently fucking obvious and has been since the middle of 2017 that Trump ain't winning any Hillary state, and that means he has to win one of those blue wall states, and he's been massively underwater for a looooooong time.
I suspected he had a really good chance to lose- b/c of this dynamic- even if the economy was hunky dory but when covid blew that up you just had to say- what- a traditionally blue state like those is voting for Trump in the time of people dying and going BK?  Really?  Really!!!????
All the other shit is background noise that has nothing to do with who wins the White House and never was going to have anything to do with who won the WH.  Yes, he's fucked. The question is whether or not it's with a lubed up pencil dick or a prison style gang rape or something in between. I'm betting in between but closer to the prison scenario then the gentlemanly and almost consensual fuck you'd be talking about at 278 to 260.  

Russian hacking of voting machines. Not kidding.
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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3902

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1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Hrmmmm....vote share in those polls (RCP averages) on 10/6:

Florida (Hillabeast/Biden): 44.8/48.2

Pennsylvania: 46.8/50.7

Michigan: 44.3/48.6

Wisconsin: 44.3/50.2

North Carolina: 44.7/48.2

 

Yep.... that's the biggest difference.  No viable 3rd party for people to opt for and larger percentage of the electorate has hardened in their vote.  Also early voting increases.  It can be somewhat instructive to look back at 2016 but there are some substantial differences.

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104426

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2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

She had me at fuckery.

This.  I do love a good "I calls em likes I sees em" remark.

Enough discussion, enough analysis.  I'm long past discussing or arguing this with any of his shitbag supporters.  They have sided against the American people.  Let's crush them.

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'stache

'stache 21740

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13 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Conceptually - his "strategy" appears to be blame the Democrats and hold the funds hostage. In other words, only way you get stimulus is by voting for me. Desperation

Yup, and it will work with a lot of swing voters. The argument we'll see is that the democrats wanted too much "socialism" and it's their fault and only king donald can fix it. It will work with swing voters because, again, they are idiots.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15347

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1 hour ago, G650 said:

So this motherfucker is out of his gourd right now. He just told the negotiators to break off stimulus talks until after the election.

He's trailing Biden by 9 points, stimulus bill polled at about 75%, and Democrats were gonna let him mail a 1200 dollar check to every American with his name on it and he was like "nah".

I wonder if this dovetails with the medical discussion going on in the Trump-has-Covid thread right now.  Is Trump just roid raging?  And if so, what other crazy shit is he going to do?

56 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

this will all happen during a D administration though, so call it 48D chess for 2022.

Not really--those airline layoffs are going to happen immediately.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104426

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5 minutes ago, Nope said:

He’s tapping out. Going to wreck everything he can for Biden on the way out.

 

Holy fuck.  He really may be doing that.  Shutting down ads in Ohio and Iowa is pretty damned close to quitting.

Oh my God....if that's what he's doing, the next 3.5 months are going to be the most dangerous in American (and perhaps world) history.  The most powerful nation in the world is going to be led by a man who 1) hates the people in it, and 2) wants to inflict pain on them, because that's what a spurned narcissist does, every fucking time.

We may have flown right past neglect, and we're headed into straight up "intentional infliction of pain" territory.  Fuck.

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The Dog

The Dog 43766

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7 minutes ago, Nope said:

He’s tapping out. Going to wreck everything he can for Biden on the way out.

 

It's close but Trump is polling at or near 50 in Iowa and close to that in Ohio in the public polls. Wonder what his internals show.

Or they are broke. 

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Nope

Nope 3111

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Holy fuck.  He really may be doing that.  Shutting down ads in Ohio and Iowa is pretty damned close to quitting.

Oh my God....if that's what he's doing, the next 3.5 months are going to be the most dangerous in American (and perhaps world) history.  The most powerful nation in the world is going to be led by a man who 1) hates the people in it, and 2) wants to inflict pain on them, because that's what a spurned narcissist does, every fucking time.

We may have flown right past neglect, and we're headed into straight up "intentional infliction of pain" territory.  Fuck.

The abyss stares back

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