2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[bad_teammate 13519]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Side note- my kid has a shirt that says “Elizabeth Holmes is my #girlboss” and it cracks me up every time I see it.

lol

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

This is so good I am not sorry for posting it in two threads:

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Please tell me she’s adopted a ridiculous baritone. 

[The Dog 44860]

Take this Civiqs poll with a grain of salt - I don't think the age demographics make much sense (last page)

(tl;dr - it's a Biden/Trump dead heat in Texas but assumes a larger turnout among voters under 50 - especially under 30)

[Brandywine 1330]

8 hours ago, thepop said:

That quote is fake, guys. Let’s not turn into Facebook here 

I’ve heard it’s fake too but that strategy is pure Trump. Christie may not have suggested it but I bet Trump did. 

[troph 25225]

Men don't have a monopoly on stupidity.  There are plenty of stupid women roaming around as well, wives thread could have told you that.

In politics it’s really only the white women who are dumb shits (as a group). Black women, not women generally, elected Doug Jones. These black women are leaders in their communities and are the kind of women we should elevate. We need more of them, a lot more of them.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

11 minutes ago, troph said:

In politics it’s really only the white women who are dumb shits (as a group). Black women, not women generally, elected Doug Jones. These black women are leaders in their communities and are the kind of women we should elevate. We need more of them, a lot more of them.

This. You stated it much more clearly what I was trying to get at: most black women have an awareness and have always had an awareness of the vulnerability and insecurity (economic, physical, etc) that comes from being a POC and female (regardless of sexual orientation). That is one aspect of social media that has been a positive. It has put me face to face with more women from across the US with a voice that I can now listen to and learn from and follow.

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No, you’re wrong about this, and you can look this up. In the Alabama special election, Republicans showed up at a normal level and voted for Roy Moore. Black Women showed up at an unprecedented level and made elected Doug Jones.

 

In one of the blackest states on the Union. And there was some leakage from white people. Fucking Tahoe didn’t vote for Roy Moore as I recall. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[C-Man 27779]

42 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Take this Civiqs poll with a grain of salt - I don't think the age demographics make much sense (last page)

(tl;dr - it's a Biden/Trump dead heat in Texas but assumes a larger turnout among voters under 50 - especially under 30)

My wife who turned 40 this year was 100% not going to vote either way but I think Trump has so disgusted her she might change her mind before 11/3. She's become completely turned off by her mother's defense of this detestable man in the WH and her continual spouting of Fox News talking points despite all of the bizarro things Trump is doing in real life. (I love that we start our nightly walks off with her asking me, "What fucked up thing did Trump do today?")

[SimonBolivar 11064]

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

In one of the blackest states on the Union. And there was some leakage from white people. Fucking Tahoe didn’t vote for Roy Moore as I recall. 

Sure he didn't. He brought doughnuts to every county meeting only to skip out on election day.

Edited October 7, 2020 by SimonBolivar

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

53 minutes ago, troph said:

In politics it’s really only the white women who are dumb shits (as a group). Black women, not women generally, elected Doug Jones. These black women are leaders in their communities and are the kind of women we should elevate. We need more of them, a lot more of them.

I agree and that doesn’t contradict what I posted. The “angry black woman” scares the hell out of Karen but I consider that a feature not a bug. Karen needs to be marginalized. 

[TexEx15 17941]

LFG.  No more worrying about waiting until 10/19.

[Nope 3151]

3 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

LFG.  No more worrying about waiting until 10/19.

Let’s gooo

Edited October 7, 2020 by Nope

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

2 hours ago, Continental Op said:

Exactly.  Didn't 538 have Clinton/Trump at roughly 75/25% chance of winning?  Saying "OMG THE POLLS DON'T WORK" after that is like saying the laws of probability are broken if you flip a coin twice and it comes up heads both times.  

They gave Trump a slightly better chance than that: 71/29. Today 538 has Biden at 83/17. Plus when we hit the 25 days until the election soon (this weekend?), 538 alters their analysis to put a little bit more weight on the polls and less on the fundamentals of the country and economy. This should give Biden a bump in their analysis.

 

 

[NorthLoop 14466]

15 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

LFG.  No more worrying about waiting until 10/19.

What say you lawdogs? I have the 14th off and was planning on voting. Should I wait still? 

[Eastwood 4394]

12 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

LFG.  No more worrying about waiting until 10/19.

Quote

Relators delayed in challenging the Governor’s July 27 proclamation for more than ten weeks after it was issued. They have not sought relief first in the lower courts that would have allowed a careful, thorough consideration of their arguments regarding the Act’s scope and constitutionality. Those arguments affect not only the impending election process but also implicate the Governor’s authority under the Act for the many other actions he has taken over the past six months. Relators’ delay precludes the consideration their claims require...

Relators could have asserted their challenge at any time in the past ten weeks. The dissent also argues that the Court has granted relief after similar delays. But none of the cases the dissent cites bears out its argument.
Moreover, the election is already underway. The Harris County Clerk has represented to the Court that his office would accept mailed-in ballots beginning September 24. To disrupt the long-planned election procedures as relators would have us do would threaten voter confusion. The United States Supreme Court has repeatedly warned against judicial interference in an election that is imminent or ongoing.18 “[C]ourt changes of election laws close in time to the election are strongly disfavored.”

Mandamus is an “extraordinary” remedy that is “available only in limited circumstances.”20 When the record fails to show that petitioners have acted diligently to protect their rights, relief by mandamus is not available.

Wow. I'm pleasantly surprised that they called them on their shit and there was only one dissent. Fantastic.

[Chad Fuck 18134]

2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

What say you lawdogs? I have the 14th off and was planning on voting. Should I wait still? 

I say I'll see you at the polls at 7am on Oct. 13.

[Eastwood 4394]

Just now, NorthLoop said:

What say you lawdogs? I have the 14th off and was planning on voting. Should I wait still? 

The only relief left for them is to take it to SCOTUS. If SCOTUS doesn't grant cert between now and then, which I don't think they will, then I would have serious doubts that SCOTUS would step in at any point in the future. It's a very positive development, IMO.

[troph 25225]

1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

This. You stated it much more clearly what I was trying to get at: most black women have an awareness and have always had an awareness of the vulnerability and insecurity (economic, physical, etc) that comes from being a POC and female (regardless of sexual orientation). That is one aspect of social media that has been a positive. It has put me face to face with more women from across the US with a voice that I can now listen to and learn from and follow.

one of the absolute best parts of joining the LGBTQ community, and especially on the political side has been the inclusion and diversity component.  I've lived in two very different worlds in my life.  one very, very white.  privileged, dominated by men, wealthy men and now a diverse group where the straight, rich, white guy is part of the team but he is not the leader (necessarily) and he is always present but in the minority.  But before anyone balks, the groups have multiple representatives of every walk of life, so it's not punitive, it's inclusive.  That guy belongs, but he belongs as an equal to the latino gay man, the black lesbian, the trans woman, the trans man, the young people, all of them, all of us.  now over 5 years in that community, I can say I'm a much, much better human and I've made tremendous progress in my understanding of what others go through to be where they are.  I wouldn't trade my inclusion in the rainbow coalition for anything at this point.  It's truly the America of the future, one where everyone has a seat at the table.

and the best part is we have more fun together than any other group I've ever been a part of. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

whatever "ourprogress" is* just moved texas into tossup, and actually has biden leading by .08% there.

 

https://www.ourprogress.org/forecast

 

(*with a name like that, i suspect it isn't trying to be neutral)

[4th&Five 42004]

 

[Ghost of LL 15698]

10 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

What say you lawdogs? I have the 14th off and was planning on voting. Should I wait still? 

I don't see why you wouldn't vote on the 14th at this point.

[Red Five 41737]

Lulz. Up 12 in Rasmussen. 

[conVINCEd 21477]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't see why you wouldn't vote on the 14th at this point.

Well, you could wait a week or so and avoid the lines on the first few days.

[Bozo_Casanova 26848]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

In one of the blackest states on the Union. And there was some leakage from white people. Fucking Tahoe didn’t vote for Roy Moore as I recall. 

For your edification, then, here are the 11 blackest states in our union with potential bellwether and tipping point states bolded by me:
 

37.30%	3	Mississippi	1,098,385
32.4%	4	Louisiana	1,506,534
31.4%	5	Georgia	2,950,435
30.1%	6	Maryland	1,798,593
28.48%	7	South Carolina	1,290,684
26.38%	8	Alabama	1,251,311
21.60%	9	North Carolina	2,048,628
20.95%	10	Delaware	191,814
19.91%	11	Virginia	1,551,399
16.78%	12	Tennessee	1,055,689
15.91%	13	Florida	2,999,

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

2 hours ago, Continental Op said:

Exactly.  Didn't 538 have Clinton/Trump at roughly 75/25% chance of winning?  Saying "OMG THE POLLS DON'T WORK" after that is like saying the laws of probability are broken if you flip a coin twice and it comes up heads both times.  

They gave Trump a slightly better chance than that: 71/29. Today 538 has Biden at 83/17. Plus when we hit the 25 days until the election soon (this weekend?), 538 alters their analysis to put a little bit more weight on the polls and less on the fundamentals of the country and economy. This should give Biden a bump in their analysis.

 

 

[Irieguy 1059]

40 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

LFG.  No more worrying about waiting until 10/19.

 

@immamac remains undefeated against the crackpots. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Irieguy

[Brisketexan 106890]

23 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

The only relief left for them is to take it to SCOTUS. If SCOTUS doesn't grant cert between now and then, which I don't think they will, then I would have serious doubts that SCOTUS would step in at any point in the future. It's a very positive development, IMO.

Don't really know how they'd get it to SCOTUS -- it was based entirely on state-law claims.

[immamac 44343]

4 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

 

@immamac remains undefeated against the crackpots. 

[jimmyjazz 47177]

11 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Wherever God erects a house of prayer,
The Devil always builds a chapel there,
And 'twill be found upon examination,
The latter has the largest congregation

- Daniel Defoe

*larger

[Eastwood 4394]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Don't really know how they'd get it to SCOTUS -- it was based entirely on state-law claims.

I would assume that they would try to claim some constitutionally vested right in the state was violated by the decision. It's a Hail Mary, but it's all they have left.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just now, Eastwood said:

I would assume that they would try to claim some constitutionally vested right in the state was violated by the decision. It's a Hail Mary, but it's all they have left.

only if they'd been arguing that from the outset.  can't really start now.

[Brisketexan 106890]

3 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I would assume that they would try to claim some constitutionally vested right in the state was violated by the decision. It's a Hail Mary, but it's all they have left.

Yeah, that's the only angle....but man, it would be a stretch of a stretch of a stretch to get there.  The petition didn't really raise any, from what I saw.

 

EDIT -- ALSO, we may be seeing a secondary benefit of Texas being a "tossup" state, per current polling.  Several GOP justices are on the ballot, and those are actually competitive races against mostly good (and female) candidates.  A decision that stands as a big middle finger to the people may inspire more folks to fill in those downballot races for the D candidate.  So, in the interest of protecting their own skin, the court may not be eager to rock the boat or do anything controversial this close to the election.  Just a hypothesis.

Edited October 7, 2020 by Brisketexan

[Texaspython 231]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Don't really know how they'd get it to SCOTUS -- it was based entirely on state-law claims.

This

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I would assume that they would try to claim some constitutionally vested right in the state was violated by the decision. It's a Hail Mary, but it's all they have left.

They don’t really have time yet either. 
 

the voting period would start in 5 days and several of those days are the weekend where courts are probably not in session.

[Eastwood 4394]

18 minutes ago, Irieguy said:

 

@immamac remains undefeated against the crackpots. 

Yeah, how dare I advise exercising caution when other evidence of voter suppression exists in the state, such as limiting ballot drop offs to only one location in an area that has millions of people.

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

24 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

For your edification, then, here are the 11 blackest states in our union with potential bellwether and tipping point states bolded by me:
 

37.30%	3	Mississippi	1,098,385
32.4%	4	Louisiana	1,506,534
31.4%	5	Georgia	2,950,435
30.1%	6	Maryland	1,798,593
28.48%	7	South Carolina	1,290,684
26.38%	8	Alabama	1,251,311
21.60%	9	North Carolina	2,048,628
20.95%	10	Delaware	191,814
19.91%	11	Virginia	1,551,399
16.78%	12	Tennessee	1,055,689
15.91%	13	Florida	2,999,

Thanks. Appreciate that. I guess you just have VA in there bc they’d be red if not for black population and not for any other reason? 
I thought Alabama was as black basically as Mississippi- obviously not. 

[Gap03 3386]

38 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

That's going to leave a mark, especially in light of the historical Rasmussen results:

9/9:  D+2

9/16: Even

9/23: D+1

9/30: D+8

10/7: D+12

That would seem to be a trend ...

[TexArcher 39069]

46 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Kick.  His.  Fat.  Stupid.  Ass.

[Bozo_Casanova 26848]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Thanks. Appreciate that. I guess you just have VA in there bc they’d be red if not for black population and not for any other reason? 

Bolded states that are a potential tipping point and/or bellwether for Biden.

[henrygandorf 29225]

42 minutes ago, troph said:

one of the absolute best parts of joining the LGBTQ community, and especially on the political side has been the inclusion and diversity component.  I've lived in two very different worlds in my life.  one very, very white.  privileged, dominated by men, wealthy men and now a diverse group where the straight, rich, white guy is part of the team but he is not the leader (necessarily) and he is always present but in the minority.  But before anyone balks, the groups have multiple representatives of every walk of life, so it's not punitive, it's inclusive.  That guy belongs, but he belongs as an equal to the latino gay man, the black lesbian, the trans woman, the trans man, the young people, all of them, all of us.  now over 5 years in that community, I can say I'm a much, much better human and I've made tremendous progress in my understanding of what others go through to be where they are.  I wouldn't trade my inclusion in the rainbow coalition for anything at this point.  It's truly the America of the future, one where everyone has a seat at the table.

and the best part is we have more fun together than any other group I've ever been a part of. 

my story isn't an exact parallel, but i think there's some overlap.

when i first interned in la (1999), i worked at a small production company, and i was basically one of the assistants - hung out with them, went to lunch with them, etc.  one of the assistants was a typical white gay guy, mid-20's, normal looking, normal personality.  one day, we were all out to lunch only the gay guy wasn't with us, so of course, the other assistants were yapping about him, and about what everyone did the previous weekend.

it turns out that while we hung out with our own friend groups comprised of ~ equal socio-economic, racial, similar jobs, etc type people, the gay guy was out partying in a group that included a huge agent and a big director - also both gay white guys - as well as other gays of all color, status, ages, and financial levels.

the guys i was with just couldn't get past this.  they couldn't believe he was being accepted as an equal, especially in the hollywood social/success ladder system.  and one of them was like, "it doesn't work that way with the gays, they just don't care about that stuff."

it always kinda stuck with me, because like you said, inclusion was primary.  everything else was just noise, and they discarded it.  i've heard multiple stories like that since then.  it was like the classist bullshit didn't even occur to them, or it at least wasn't a priority.  and the reason i brought up earlier that he was a "normal looking/acting" type of guy, is that it wasn't like he was some super hot "piece or arm candy" or just incredibly charismatic or life-of-the-party, he was just part of their group.  no big deal.

i don't like to group or label people, but i think it's pretty clear, at least here in my west hollywood bubble, that the lgbtq+ community figured out inclusion and harmony a long time ago, and everyone else is still playing catch-up.

[Bozo_Casanova 26848]

10 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

That's going to leave a mark, especially in light of the historical Rasmussen results:

9/9:  D+2

9/16: Even

9/23: D+1

9/30: D+8

10/7: D+12

That would seem to be a trend ...

Appears driven by eroding support from Republicans.
 

Quote

The new survey finds Trump with 76% support among Republicans. Biden has 81% of the Democrat vote and an 18-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Trump's daily job approval also has fallen since his nomination of Barrett on September 26 to replace Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, NorthLoop said:

What say you lawdogs? I have the 14th off and was planning on voting. Should I wait still? 

No. Vote as early as you can. This particular bit of Republican Party bullshit is done and over with. No appeal. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

No way SCOTUS touches that decision. 

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Bolded states that are a potential tipping point and/or bellwether for Biden.

I know VA isn't a tipping point- why is it a bellwether for Biden?  What's that portend in your mind (not arguing- curious). 

[TexEx15 17941]

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26848]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I know VA isn't a tipping point- why is it a bellwether for Biden?  What's that portend in your mind (not arguing- curious). 

Take a look at the stats. Simulations on 270towin indicate that it's close to 90% probability of being a Bellwether for Biden and like a 5% chance of being the tipping point. That's not Florida or Pennsylvania but It's pretty important. 

[TexArcher 39069]

If I were an Iranian civilian, I'd start keeping an ear out for air raid sirens right about....   Now....

[Voldemort86 2259]

19 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

No. Vote as early as you can. This particular bit of Republican Party bullshit is done and over with. No appeal. 

After the TX Supreme Court struck it down, I think the TX GOP lost that battle. I’m going next week. 

[Saint Tacky 1647]

1 hour ago, NorthLoop said:

What say you lawdogs? I have the 14th off and was planning on voting. Should I wait still? 

The distinction between this matter in Texas and the South Carolina decision on Monday is that the exception to the SC law re witness signatures being required on absentee ballots originated with a federal court order. In Texas the exception was initiated by the Governor, and the line-in-the-sand is that the judiciary cannot change the rules, not matter how idiotic they may be.  

But, I posted earlier, if the SCOTUS does take the case and for whatever reason rules against Abbott (e.g... power lies exclusively with the Texas legislature), it is unlikely they would toss out those ballots cast before the 19th - based on what they did with the existing absentee ballots in SC - but, if Thomas, Gorsuch, and Alito had their way, they would be tossed.