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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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8 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I wonder if Ken Bone realizes that the only reason he ever got any attention is because he's a marginally funny meme representing every goofy fat awkward virgin everyone has ever known, and that nobody gives a shit about his opinions.

Hey, Ken Bone also inspired one of the greatest tweets of all-time: 

 

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35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

My thought as well. If he's taking to Twitter to GOTV in Texas then he's heard some information that made him worry.

The guys at LeanTossup (Canadian site that covers Canadian and US elections) thinks Trump loses Texas. I think their reasoning is sound but it hasn't really shown in any polls.

 https://leantossup.ca/donald-trump-is-losing-texas/

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1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

 

2 questions.

1) did he really have internal polling numbers that matched the outcome in 2016?

and

2) could he again?

 

I'm getting Deja vu and while I laughed then because it was such a fuck your to big politics and also Hillary, I’m a little shell shocked after 4 years that it could happen again. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The guys at LeanTossup (Canadian site that covers Canadian and US elections) thinks Trump loses Texas. I think their reasoning is sound but it hasn't really shown in any polls.

 https://leantossup.ca/donald-trump-is-losing-texas/

Agreed that it's very unlikely.  But I wonder if what they're seeing from new voter registrations, mail-in ballot requests, etc. is making them nervous. I still see a 3-5% Trump win in Texas but I could also see Trump's team showing him a 1-3% lead right now which would get him running to Twitter.

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Agreed that it's very unlikely.  But I wonder if what they're seeing from new voter registrations, mail-in ballot requests, etc. is making them nervous. I still see a 3-5% Trump win in Texas but I could also see Trump's team showing him a 1-3% lead right now which would get him running to Twitter.

Posted this on another thread. There are 1.5 million voters registered in Texas who were not registered in 2016. That's close to 10% of the total. 

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5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

1) did he really have internal polling numbers that matched the outcome in 2016?

 

Nope, he didn't. If you read the politico article I posted a while back they couldn't "find a way through Michigan". What they (and nobody else) realized was that blue collar whites had abandoned Hillary for Trump. The Democratic operatives in Michigan knew they were in trouble, but Hillary ignored them. Trump went there repeatedly and guess what? they showed up at Trump rallies. 

Pollsters have adjusted accordingly and Trump is still behind big. 

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https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/amp/Texas-voter-registration-surges-trump-biden-record-15586286.php&ved=2ahUKEwjOktOkwqbsAhWIB80KHWQTBfQQFjAGegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw10W6DkFQdJ-3cpmA0qeJIa&ampcf=1

 

Texas has once again shattered vote registration records, adding more than 1.5 million voters since the last presidential election.

 

In the four previous presidential election cycles, Texas added about 700,000 new voters on average — less than half as many as have been added this cycle.

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19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The guys at LeanTossup (Canadian site that covers Canadian and US elections) thinks Trump loses Texas. I think their reasoning is sound but it hasn't really shown in any polls.

 https://leantossup.ca/donald-trump-is-losing-texas/

Glad you posted that and it's something that's been throwing me for a loop too. How is Biden destroying Hillary's margins with almost every voting bloc but only seeing small shifts from her state-wide numbers? It doesn't make a ton of sense. Not saying that Trump is going to win Texas but it's something I've wondered enough about to do absolutely zero research on it.

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i'm sure plenty of people have said exactly what i'm about to, but i didn't keep up with either debate thread.
in response to "are you going to pack the court" the answer is simple. "the fact that this question is even being asked is to act as a distraction for the egregious activity from mitch mcconnell in 2016 and mcconnell, trump, graham and others right now.  they're hoping to have the media ask this question to provide them cover for what they're trying to sneak by the american people.  don't give them that cover."
period. paragraph.
The fact that this hasn't been the response is extremely frustrating. Mcconnell's Senate has been packing the court going back at least six years now. Via holding up appointments or for example trying to rush a nomination in now.
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6 hours ago, The Dog said:

Because they can't find a mailbox? They can still mail them unless they procrastinate. The drop off location stuff isn't going to materially affect the election here. 

Plus the urban counties you can pretty much vote anywhere in the county for 2 weeks, right?  
 

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5 hours ago, UncleSonny said:

If Trump tries to push this again in a debate, I don't understand why Biden's obvious answer wouldn't be, "Expanding the Supreme Court is not a power given to the chief executive by the constitution. That would be a question to ask a candidate running for the legislative branch and I would hope after being in office for four years the president would have a better handle on high school civics." 

Sure it kind of a disingenuous argument because presidential debates constantly discuss issues that are outside of the actual POTUS powers, but I think it would be enough to make Trump spin out in a live debate and it's technically true.   

That’s a terrible debate answer. It doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker and it’s over the head of at least half the people watching

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s a terrible debate answer. It doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker and it’s over the head of at least half the people watching

His answer should be “Shift Happens.”

FUCK I’m way too late on this idea to mass produce these bumper stickers. But I like it. 

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2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

2 questions.

1) did he really have internal polling numbers that matched the outcome in 2016?

and

2) could he again?

 

I'm getting Deja vu and while I laughed then because it was such a fuck your to big politics and also Hillary, I’m a little shell shocked after 4 years that it could happen again. 

No. They thought they were losing in 2016 until 8:00 central time. 

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14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s a terrible debate answer. It doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker and it’s over the head of at least half the people watching

I wanted to push back against this but you’re probably right. This whole process is so stupid. 

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5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s a terrible debate answer. It doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker and it’s over the head of at least half the people watching

For that particular question I think that is what makes it a good answer. Nothing for the other side to really grab on to but with a subtle nod to those who want it to happen. 

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Looking at 270 to Win, I can only put together a Trump win with him taking the south, and then winning OH, PA and Wisconsin. 

In this scenario, as the Trump strategist, I would focus solely on NC, PA and WI. Add some support in OH and FL but in many ways Trump needs those 2 to fall in line without much campaigning.

Crazy that he has a path to victory at this point.

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11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Looking at 270 to Win, I can only put together a Trump win with him taking the south, and then winning OH, PA and Wisconsin. 

In this scenario, as the Trump strategist, I would focus solely on NC, PA and WI. Add some support in OH and FL but in many ways Trump needs those 2 to fall in line without much campaigning.

Crazy that he has a path to victory at this point.

It’s crazy to think his path to victory is in the courts. 

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He'll win by 2-3%.  But he's really fucking up some down ballot races for some formerly secure Republican candidates.  

Texas Tribune is almost ready to run the story about the record number of people that registered to vote in 2020 because of Trump.  

They've been slinging tales every few months for years about how Texas is a purple state with low turnout, and how it'll be minority-majority soon, and the demographic shift coming by 2040, etc., etc., etc.  In the end, the TRP just keep churning out victory after victory in every facet of our government and judiciary, even with two weeks of early voting and nice weather in late October.   

But this Trump fellow, he was the missing ingredient.  He did for Texas Democrats in four years what would have taken natural demographics 40 years to accomplish.  

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/us/politics/trump-biden-sun-belt.html?auth=login-google

 

Quote

Cindy Bishop is the sort of voter who has some Republicans bracing for a wipeout next month.

Standing inside her garage, shielded from the 102-degree desert heat, Ms. Bishop, a 61-year-old medical professional, said she voted for Mr. Trump four years ago because “he wasn’t a politician.” But then, she said, “I got a taste of him and I’m like, ‘God, he’s disrespectful’ — there’s so much about him I don’t like.” She is now leaning toward Joseph R. Biden Jr.

 

Quote

The inflammatory behavior that has alienated voters beyond his base has long posed the most significant impediment to Mr. Trump’s re-election. But one week after he rampaged through the first presidential debate and then was hospitalized with the coronavirus, only to keep minimizing the disease as it spread through his White House, the president’s conduct is not only undermining his own campaign but threatening his entire party.

 

Quote

New polls show Mr. Trump’s support is collapsing nationally, as he alienates women, seniors and suburbanites. He is trailing not just in must-win battlegrounds but according to private G.O.P. surveys, he is repelling independents to the point where Mr. Biden has drawn closer in solidly red states, including Montana, Kansas and Missouri, people briefed on the data said.

 

Spoiler

Nowhere has Mr. Trump harmed himself and his party more than across the Sun Belt, where the electoral coalition that secured a generation of Republican dominance is in danger of coming apart.

“There are limits to what people can take with the irresponsibility, the untruthfulness, just the whole persona,” said Jeff Flake, the former Republican senator from Arizona. Mr. Flake is crossing party lines to support Mr. Biden, who made his first visit of the general election here Thursday.

Many of the Sun Belt states seemingly within Mr. Biden’s reach resisted the most stringent public-health policies to battle the coronavirus. As a result, states like Arizona, Georgia and Texas faced a powerful wave of infections for much of the summer, setting back efforts to revive commercial activity.

In Arizona, a low-tax, regulation-resistant state, the focus on reviving business helped drive the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent in August, with some of that apparent improvement coming from people leaving the labor force in a state with a large hospitality sector that has suffered in the pandemic.

Still, Arizona continues to face a long climb to return to its pre-pandemic economy. Twice as many Arizona residents filed new claims for unemployment benefits at the end of September than they did at the previous time last year, the Labor Department reports.

Mr. Biden is mounting an assertive campaign and facing rising pressure to do more in the historically Republican region. He is buttressed by a fund-raising gusher for Democratic candidates, overwhelming support from people of color and defections from the G.O.P. among college-educated whites in and around cities like Atlanta, Houston and Phoenix.

“Cities in states like Arizona and Texas are attracting young people, highly-educated people, and people of color — all groups that the national Republican Party has walked away from the last four years,” said the Oklahoma City mayor, David F. Holt, a Republican. “This losing demographic bet against big cities and their residents is putting Sun Belt states in play.”

Gov. Doug Ducey of Arizona, a Republican who like Mr. Holt has won in increasingly forbidding environments, said his party needed to recognize an enduring verity about politics: “It’s a game of addition.”

Some of the states that appear effectively tied today, such as North Carolina and Georgia, could still prove difficult for Mr. Biden to carry. Few Democratic nominees have proven able to forge coalitions to tip these states and the president’s appeal among working-class whites in the South will at least keep him competitive.

Even in South Carolina, Republicans have grown deeply concerned about Senator Lindsey Graham’s re-election campaign, and Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, has had several sobering conversations with Mr. Graham, according to Republicans familiar with the discussions.

The Senate Republican campaign arm has also intervened in Mr. Graham’s imperiled campaign, with a handful of senior aides at the committee taking a more hands-on role.

On Thursday, in a conference call with a group of lobbyists, Mr. McConnell vented that the party’s Senate candidates are being financially overwhelmed because of small-dollar contributions to ActBlue, the online liberal fund-raising hub.

In some ways, the shifts in the Sun Belt have accelerated since Mr. Trump’s nomination four years ago.

Even as he stunned Hillary Clinton in three crucial Great Lakes states, he lost Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico and fared worse in Arizona, Texas and Georgia than Mitt Romney had four years earlier.

Two years later, Democrats performed even better in a series of high-profile races across the region with college-educated white voters and people of color.

Now Republicans are at risk of that wave cresting again, and even higher.

“Racism and misogyny and demagoguery and being just hateful and cruel and intolerant are not things in the Southwest that play very well,” said Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico, a Democrat. She said Republicans had left a wide space for her party in her region by clinging to “messaging that’s 40 years old” on issues like immigration and climate.

If Mr. Biden wins by simply flipping back the Democratic-leaning Great Lakes states, Mr. Trump and his allies can pin the blame on the virus. But if Mr. Trump loses across the South and West, it would force a much deeper introspection on the right about Trump and Trumpism — and their electoral future in the fastest-growing and most diverse part of the country.

“The Southern strategy has been flipped on its head,” said Representative Darren Soto of Florida, a Democrat, alluding to the Nixon-era tactic of expanding the Republican coalition by winning in once-Democratic strongholds of the South.

This is part of the case that former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas is making to Mr. Biden’s campaign.

Polls show the presidential race in Texas is effectively tied, and congressional polling for both parties has found Mr. Biden running up significant leads across the state’s once-red suburbs. A Biden victory there could be transformational, providing Democrats an opportunity to enlarge their House majority, shape redistricting and deliver a devastating psychological blow to Republicans.

“Texas is really Biden’s to lose if he invests now, and that must include his time and presence in the state,” Mr. O’Rourke said in an interview. “He can not only win our 38 electoral votes but really help down ballot Democrats, lock in our maps for 10 years, deny Trump the chance to declare victory illegally and send Trumpism on the run.”

Mr. O’Rourke said Mr. Biden heard him out and promised “full consideration.” For now, Mr. Biden is increasing his ad spending in the state and is expected to dispatch his wife, Jill, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris, there in the coming days, according to Democrats familiar with the planning.

Texas’s growth has been explosive: Over 1.5 million new voters have registered since 2016, a third of them in the diverse, transplant-filled counties that include San Antonio, Houston and Austin. The anger toward Mr. Trump has emboldened Democratic candidates to run more audacious campaigns.

In a Dallas-area House district held by a Republican who’s retiring, the Democratic Party is sending mailers telling voters that their nominee will “stand up to President Trump.” Senator John Cornyn, running for re-election, has lamented privately that Mr. Trump is stuck in the low 40s in polling, holding back other Republicans, people familiar with his comments said.

Mr. Trump is at even greater risk in the next-largest red state in the South: Georgia. In the latest Republican polling, Mr. Trump has fallen several points behind Mr. Biden in the state, where 16 Electoral College votes, two Senate seats and several competitive House races are on the ballot.

“It feels like after the debate there was a real shift,” said State Senator Jennifer Jordan, a Democrat from suburban Atlanta.

Ms. Jordan’s district is exactly the kind of area that has swung away from Republicans in the Trump era. She said she believed Mr. Trump still had more ground to lose with the professional class and that his bout with the coronavirus was not helping.

“The fact that he has it is kind of a living example of how he has mismanaged and misjudged this virus,” she said, adding, “The Chamber of Commerce Republicans, business Republicans, who may have been on the fence, I think they’re breaking now for Biden.”

The Trump campaign appears sensitive to that risk. Mr. Trump recently visited the state to unveil an economic plan for Black Americans, while Vice President Mike Pence addressed an evangelical political conference.

Brian Robinson, a Republican strategist, said his party was confronting a “demographic bubble” that had accelerated with the flight of white women.

“The G.O.P. has to stop that bleeding,” Mr. Robinson said.

In the House, the Sun Belt appears to represent the area of greatest peril for the G.O.P., as Democrats make inroads not only in the suburbs but in outer-rung communities that are typically whiter, older and more conservative.

That was evident, quite literally, from the Glendale, Ariz., home of Hiral Tipirneni, an emergency room doctor who is challenging a Republican incumbent in an exurban district that Mr. Trump carried by 10 points.

Sitting in her outdoor courtyard with a view of the stucco sprawl enveloping greater Phoenix, Ms. Tipirneni made the case for why the daughter of Indian immigrants could win a seat long held by white Republican men.

“Our county is a good microcosm of our state and I think the state is becoming a good reflection of our whole country,” she said of Maricopa County, which is now the fourth-largest county by population in the country.

After winning it by about three points in 2016, roughly the same as his statewide margin, Mr. Trump is now trailing in Maricopa by nine points, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

If the election here unfolds like many Arizona Republicans are dreading it might, they will in two years have lost the presidential race, both Senate seats, both chambers of the state legislature and watched as voters approved a ballot measure levying a surtax on the wealthy for increased education funding.

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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Do you recall in '17 or '18 that Cruz rightfully warned other republicans that many democrats would walk through broken glass to vote against republicans? My mom is an example of a life-long republican who would walk through glass next month  to vote against the republican party.

I don't know if she hates Trump or Abbott more.

Still I can't get myself to believe that Trump will lose Texas. I read the reports of new registrations and republicans like my mom. Still it takes a lot of people to shift a few percentage points in Texas. 

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"On Thursday, in a conference call with a group of lobbyists, Mr. McConnell vented that the party’s Senate candidates are being financially overwhelmed because of small-dollar contributions to ActBlue, the online liberal fund-raising hub."

 

This is extremely telling on where each party gets their power.  Personally, I'd prefer it to come from the people, not the lobbyists and corporations. 

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Looking at 270 to Win, I can only put together a Trump win with him taking the south, and then winning OH, PA and Wisconsin. 

In this scenario, as the Trump strategist, I would focus solely on NC, PA and WI. Add some support in OH and FL but in many ways Trump needs those 2 to fall in line without much campaigning.

Crazy that he has a path to victory at this point.

There is no path to victory for Trump without the upper midwest, or at least Pennsylvania. You have to start flipping states like CO or VA, which if they didn't go in 2016, aren't going to go now, when he's trailinig by much more than he did 4 years ago.

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17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Do you recall in '17 or '18 that Cruz rightfully warned other republicans that many democrats would walk through broken glass to vote against republicans? My mom is an example of a life-long republican who would walk through glass next month  to vote against the republican party.

We saw that back in April in Milwaukee, or at least the crawl through glass to vote Democrat effect. 

Wisconsin will also be an interesting test case of someone's theory (Brisket maybe?) that when you lose suburban women, the gerrymander breaks. Recall that in 2018, when Democrats won statewide Assembly votes by ~9 points, it got them 34 out of 99 seats.

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5 minutes ago, Stringer said:

This is extremely telling on where each party gets their power.  Personally, I'd prefer it to come from the people, not the lobbyists and corporations. 

Sorry but this is a naive take. Democratic candidates get plenty of money from "lobbyists and corporations". 

What do you think ActBlue is? Even though it's designed to get small donations in large numbers it's still a PAC.

Biden's top donors (there's also a link to Trump's here as well)

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49 minutes ago, Lobo said:

  But this Trump fellow, he was the missing ingredient.  He did for Texas Democrats in four years what would have taken natural demographics 40 years to accomplish.  

If only someone had predicted this four years ago.

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2 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

We saw that back in April in Milwaukee, or at least the crawl through glass to vote Democrat effect. 

Wisconsin will also be an interesting test case of someone's theory (Brisket maybe?) that when you lose suburban women, the gerrymander breaks. Recall that in 2018, when Democrats won statewide Assembly votes by ~9 points, it got them 34 out of 99 seats.

For a trump EC victory next month, it would seem like he would shatter the 2000 and 2016 percentage loss but EC victory.

While I don’t think we will eliminate the EC, it’s time that we expand the House to directly expand the EC to reduce the small state tyranny. 

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23 minutes ago, Bookman said:

If only someone had predicted this four years ago.

Yeah, we knew he was gonna be a shitshow.  But what I didn't see any solid evidence of back then, even from Jim Henson, was how many moderate Texas Republicans (which are probably more right on the spectrum from many other moderate Republicans nationwide) that Trump could alienate and lose.  And then how many docile, unengaged independents and those identifying as Democrat but never bothering to vote...that Trump would also activate.  Yeah, Texas Blue projects try to get everybody fired up every 2 years and it kinda, sorta worked in 2008 but that was about it.  It's maybe a 2-3% uptick in registrations each cycle, nothing to worry about.  But I would imagine Trump single-handedly will bring out 1mm extra Texans with the sole mission of voting against him.  

Our standard TRP Machine will recover okay from this.  Not great, but okay.  They'll get back to the business of the judiciary and railroad commission.  But it's the really passionate Trumpers here in the Lone Star State that really tied up with his ship...they're the ones that are truly fucked.  They're gonna be forced back to being political disengaged and feeling marginalized and degraded.  But that's what happens when you rawdog your cousin and wake up with Trumpaids.  

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11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The House needs to be expanded for many reasons. 

Yep. It would also be nice that Congress and courts would agree that a state can't gerrymander the minority to practically zero representation. Larger states could actually use more rep seats to gerrymander even that much more. It would seem to be impossible to completely eliminate gerrymander but it needs to be held in check.

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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yep. It would also be nice that Congress and courts would agree that a state can't gerrymander the minority to practically zero representation. Larger states could actually use more rep seats to gerrymander even that much more. It would seem to be impossible to completely eliminate gerrymander but it needs to be held in check.

Don't need the courts for this:  Congress can pass a law banning gerrymandering. Constitution gives it total authority to set the rules for congressional elections.  Roberts is just terrible and won't enforce the obvious equal protection violation that gerrymandering creates.

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Yep. And gerrymandering can be easily eliminated these days by a requirement that districts be drawn by a computer algorithm that can only use number of people, their location, roads, political boundaries (city limits, counties, etc.), and natural features (rivers), as inputs. 

Initial seed location must be an extreme corner of the state or the population geographic center. If the algorithm doesn't meet other minority representation requirements then reseed.

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12 hours ago, Tuco said:


I think the plea for her to open things up was over the line. When you regurgitate the talking points of the nutcases that we’re out to kill her, that’s severely fucked up.

BIg time.. it should outrage everyone. Trump is going to get someone killed/assassinated and no one from the GOP is saying anything!

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