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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

very highly regulated industries (e.g., oil & gas).

Forgive me for shortening your post, but I just want to highlight one point on which I really disagree.

And I would just say "lol" at the above. The state government is regulated by O&G, not the other way around.

Beyond that, I think you raised a good point regarding the state's history. I do think that once it happens, you'll see what amounts to a political tidal wave, because things are so partisan that when a Democrat finally gets over the hump it means the tide has already turned. Winning elections is a lagging indicator. I am skeptical that we'll see the open party flipping that we've seen in the past. Voters are so entrenched that a R flipping to a D would get crucified by both sides. 

As to your question regarding the GOP, I sort of expanded on that in another post, but I anticipate the majority of white moderates will swing back when Democrats actually have control and are talking about spending money on social programs and raising taxes. As for Trump, if he loses, I honestly expect him dead in a year or two. He'll have nothing left to live for. The GOP can easily powerwash that.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
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5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Forgive me for shortening your post, but I just want to highlight one point on which I really disagree.

And I would just say "lol" at the above. The state government is regulated by O&G, not the other way around.

Beyond that, I think you raised a good point regarding the state's history. I do think that once it happens, you'll see what amounts to a political tidal wave, because things are so partisan that when a Democrat finally gets over the hump it means the tide has already turned. Winning elections is a lagging indicator. I am skeptical that we'll see the open party flipping that we've seen in the past. Voters are so entrenched that a R flipping to a D would get crucified by both sides. 

As to your question regarding the GOP, I sort of expanded on that in another post, but I anticipate the majority of white moderates will swing back when Democrats actually have control and are talking about spending money on social programs and raising taxes. As for Trump, if he loses, I honestly expect him dead in a year or two. He'll have nothing left to live for. The GOP can easily powerwash that.

Well, you're . . . not wrong.

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WBT

WBT 20422

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2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Everything he has done in his presidency and throughout this campaign to date has been geared to his base.

Everything in his entire presidency has been geared to his base.  Well, that and graft. 

It's as if he doesn't realize that he lost the popular vote and still needed a bump from a very unpopular opponent to eke out the EC.  He just keeps doubling down on his 42% over and over and over.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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53 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

MAGA

“only the best people”

It’s not my fault!
 

this is a big blow for the GOP. I hope the convention ends up in Ohio. A state they’re going to win anyway.

the GOP strategically chose North Carolina because it also has a governor race ( D governor looks good for re-election though), house races, a senate seat, and a good year in North Carolina would’ve let the states shady ass GOP state goons to rig the map for another 10 years.
 

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Forgive me for shortening your post, but I just want to highlight one point on which I really disagree.

Texas has never been a two-party state.  Going back to the time of annexation, this has been a one-party state.  And certainly in the modern era, it's a one-party state.

Now, for a lot of that time, there have been two wings within that one party vying for supremacy.  In the 50's and 60's it was the liberal Yarborough wing of the Democratic Party against the conservative Connelly wing.  In the 90's and 00's, it was the business-friendly Bush win against the cultural-conservative Patrick/Paxton wing of the Republican Party.

But there's only ever one party.

And there's good reason for that.  For all of the talk about how business-friendly Texas is, much of the Texas economy runs on very highly regulated industries (e.g., oil & gas).  And it's much easier for those businesses' lobbyists to only have to work one party.  And that's what they do.  They're not Republicans because they're ideological.  They're Republicans because that's who holds power.

But everybody knows what's coming.  The lobbyists certainly do.  That's why they're now at least talking to Democrats.  And as soon as one Democrat wins in a statewide race--and it could happen this year in some downballot race--fucking look out.  Texas Association of Business, Texas Oil & Gas Association, and all the rest will start giving to Democrats.  And once that happens, it's all over.  Money's important in politics.  Votes follow the money.  And with all that money that'll flow into Democratic coffers, this thing'll flip in a hurry.

It took really just about 8 years for this state to flip from Democratic to Republican (i.e., 1978, when Bill Clements was first elected, to 1986, when Clements was elected again).*  It won't even take that long this go-around.  

 

 

* I don't think Ann Richards counts, because she only got elected because her opponent made a rape joke (how quaint that making a joke about rape was seen as disqualifying).  But you could arguably push that date of the final defeat of the Texas Democratic Party back to the mid-90's, when it lost SCOTX.

How're they going to do that, exactly?  It's not like Trump goes away.  He's the leader of a cult of personality, and he'll still have access to his twitter machine.

This is going to be the Party of Trump until Trump dies (and probably long afterwards).  

After Hoover, the GOP was in the wilderness for 20 years (and they needed a war hero from the greatest cataclysm in world history to pull them back into power).  Now imagine Hoover had a twitter machine.  And was a fucking narcissistic lunatic.  How long would the GOP have been out of power then?

Let's be real realistic about the GOP's future prospects: it has none.  It's the Whig Party.

 

 

Getting back to the topic of the thread: You know why I'm really sanguine about all these polls?  Because I don't need to look at the polls to even know what they say.  All I have to do is look at the Trump campaign.

Incumbents usually win.  That's because they won the first time.  And you expect that the people who voted for them the first time are going to vote for them again.  So they can concentrate on attracting additional supporters.  And they spend four years doing that.

Sometimes they get a real late start doing that (as I would argue Obama did in his first term).  But still--by June of the election year, an incumbent should have his base of support nailed down so that he can pursue additional supporters.

Does Trump think he has his base of support nailed down?

Fuck no.  That stunt last night tells you all you need to know about that.  Trump is worried that he's not holding on to evangelicals, who are a critical part of his base.  Not that they're going to vote for Biden.  But he can't just win 51% or 61% or even 71% of evangelicals.  He needs to win 81%.  That's what he won in 2016, in an election in which he won by 77K votes across three states.  81%.  75% doesn't get it done.  He needs >80%.

And right now, his internals show him dropping below that.  That's why he goes out and stands there like a doofus in front of a church with a Bible.  It's to secure the evangelicals.

Everything he has done in his presidency and throughout this campaign to date has been geared to his base.  Scarborough is a murderer?  Base.  Obamagate?  Base.  Chinese virus?  Base.  It's all base plays, and that tells you he isn't comfortable that he has secured his base.

An incumbent who hasn't secured his base by June of the election year is a fucking dead man.  That's George Bush.  That's Lyndon Johnson.  If you're still trying to secure your base, you don't have the chance to reach out and expand your appeal.  And you know who's expanding his appeal by doing nothing more than sitting in his fucking basement while Donald Trump tries to keep his base onboard?

The next president of the United States, that's who.

I’m not saying they will get that back, I’m saying if they are going to win they have to. 

Maybe Trump dies and the next candidate is Romneyesque, it W likeable and the Dems go hard core left wing with racial overtones. 

If you had a likeable educated white dude (or woman hahahahaha- boy the GOP is too stupid to try that yet) running against a black socialist talking about reparations, for example, that might drive the suburban white women home. Maybe. But it’s take something like that I think. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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49 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m not saying they will get that back, I’m saying if they are going to win they have to. 

Maybe Trump dies and the next candidate is Romneyesque, it W likeable and the Dems go hard core left wing with racial overtones. 

If you had a likeable educated white dude (or woman hahahahaha- boy the GOP is too stupid to try that yet) running against a black socialist talking about reparations, for example, that might drive the suburban white women home. Maybe. But it’s take something like that I think. 

I don’t think nikki Haley is all that like able. She comes across as a bitch to lots of people.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

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12 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I don’t think nikki Haley is all that like able. She comes across as a bitch to lots of people.

Agreed. I’m thinking someone safe and boring. Like maybe the South Dakota governor, a smarter Palin, a less boring Elizabeth dole. Something like that. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

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16 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

are we just pretending it's not going to be don jr or ivanka?

Goodness gracious sakes alive I sure hope not. But yeah, that would be dumb enough to be the GOP’s next go to. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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It is beyond fucking creepy how much the new White House Press Secretary looks like Tiffany Trump.  Their mouths move the same way when they talk, too.

So fucking weird.  

What were we talking about, who the GOP will run in 2024?  How about any one of the 16 people who ran in 2016 that the nation turned its nose up at so we can all get more Trump-on-Trump action?  

Jeb has indicated he may give it one more go.  He'll be 71 in 2024 though.  I know you guys aren't big fans of his on here, but I'd vote for Marco Rubio.  He's one of the smartest people I've ever known.  While he is a douchebag at times, that seems to now be a feature, not a bug in America.  

I'd like to see John Kasich run at 72 in 2024.  His biggest downside though will be the GOP worried his anti-Trump stances from 2015-2020 will cost them turnout.  

Cruz would probably like to be the candidate to "carry on the Trump legacy", but he'll also be up for Senate reelection and running for both would likely cost him his already very vulnerable Class I Seat.  It'd be embarrassingly awkward for him to not get the GOP nomination, lose his Senate spot, and be out of a job at 53 years of age.  although his long game has always been to drop out of a primary late and cut a deal for a SCOTUS seat.  

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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On 6/1/2020 at 10:20 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- I’m touting MN as a long term play for the GOP to pick up a previously left voting state, but Trump ain’t that guy and 2020 ain’t that time- unless like you said there’s some bizarre Trump landslide which  would just be mind boggling. 

If trump wins (narrator voice- he won’t) it will be because he kept WI in his column in the upper Midwest, and somehow managed to keep AZ in his column which I just can’t fathom that happening. 

I’m on record saying biden wins with an Obama like number- but yeah- no way MN is the tipping point state. 

Thats in addition tough holds for him in N.C. and FL and to a lesser extent GA, Texas and a few other places (assuming MI and PA clearly Biden states) but like MN the opposite way, if we are counting ballots in N.C. and Florida this thing is over at 11:01 or whenever it is that the polls on the left coast close. 

I never imagined I would see something drive Arizona blue, but here we are. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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12 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Hardest part for a normal Republican in 2024 will be getting the nomination.  You'll see a more polished version of Trump (someone like Kobach).

You mean the guy that lost a statewide race in fucking Kansas?

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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11 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

 

the GOP strategically chose North Carolina because it also has a governor race ( D governor looks good for re-election though), house races, a senate seat, and a good year in North Carolina would’ve let the states shady ass GOP state goons to rig the map for another 10 years.

The GOP brought their clown show to St Paul in 2008, hoping that it would be the deciding factor in Minnesota's 10 EVs and the razor-thin Senate race between Norm Coleman and Al Franken (the one that went to a recount). It didn't work. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

It is beyond fucking creepy how much the new White House Press Secretary looks like Tiffany Trump.  Their mouths move the same way when they talk, too.

So fucking weird.  

What were we talking about, who the GOP will run in 2024?  How about any one of the 16 people who ran in 2016 that the nation turned its nose up at so we can all get more Trump-on-Trump action?  

Jeb has indicated he may give it one more go.  He'll be 71 in 2024 though.  I know you guys aren't big fans of his on here, but I'd vote for Marco Rubio.  He's one of the smartest people I've ever known.  While he is a douchebag at times, that seems to now be a feature, not a bug in America.  

I'd like to see John Kasich run at 72 in 2024.  His biggest downside though will be the GOP worried his anti-Trump stances from 2015-2020 will cost them turnout.  

Cruz would probably like to be the candidate to "carry on the Trump legacy", but he'll also be up for Senate reelection and running for both would likely cost him his already very vulnerable Class I Seat.  It'd be embarrassingly awkward for him to not get the GOP nomination, lose his Senate spot, and be out of a job at 53 years of age.  although his long game has always been to drop out of a primary late and cut a deal for a SCOTUS seat.  

Rubio is probably the best decision the GOP could make. 

Smart, handsome, minority, probably palatable to the SoCons.  He’s a wee little fella so if you think that height matters in a leader on a subconscious level that hurts. He’s not converting anyone on here likely, but I’m guessing nobody would be embarrassed about a Rubio presidency like they are with Trump

the GOP can and will do worse. Guaranteed. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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I’m guessing nobody would be embarrassed about a Rubio presidency like they are with Trump


Rubio has completely, unambiguously bent over for Trump. Anyone who is up in arms over Trump but turns around and votes for him should be embarrassed that the only thing they're really against in the Trump admin is the presentation. I'd certainly be embarrassed if a America elected a Trump lackey and sent that message.

Note that is not me saying it wouldn't happen in large numbers.
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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I really find it perplexing how anybody can predict that anybody other than Donald Trump will be the GOP's nominee for President in 2024.  I mean, exactly what evidence are you looking at that makes you think (1) he won't run, and (2) when he runs, he wouldn't win the primary?

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Irwin F Fletcher

Irwin F Fletcher 3550

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Stated by someone else on the board recently and I'll mirror that response. As a former conservative republican I will never vote for the republican party again until every last republican enabler has left office. I've made the decision to embrace the democratic party and will work to help support those democratic candidates that can make a difference improving our country. Every republican in office today, especially on the federal level is complicit in enabling Trump and the destruction we now see. 

There is no way to reinvent the GOP with the people that currently hold power.

Edited by Irwin F Fletcher
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The Dog

The Dog 43805

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22 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I really find it perplexing how anybody can predict that anybody other than Donald Trump will be the GOP's nominee for President in 2024.  I mean, exactly what evidence are you looking at that makes you think (1) he won't run, and (2) when he runs, he wouldn't win the primary?

I don't get this take at all. If Trump loses he's done. He's not going to pull a Grover Cleveland.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I don't get this take at all. If Trump loses he's done. He's not going to pull a Grover Cleveland.

Why not.  He has a 90% approval rating with the GOP.  And look at the senators--they're all afraid to cross him.  And they're right not to--because he could endorse a primary opponent and toss them right out of their jobs.

What's the scenario in which he doesn't get the nomination in 2024?  That he doesn't run?  Why would you possibly believe that?

Or is it that he runs and is defeated?  And if you think that's going to happen, then you must think something within the GOP is going to radically change after November.

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The Dog

The Dog 43805

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12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Why not.  He has a 90% approval rating with the GOP.  And look at the senators--they're all afraid to cross him.  And they're right not to--because he could endorse a primary opponent and toss them right out of their jobs.

What's the scenario in which he doesn't get the nomination in 2024?  That he doesn't run?  Why would you possibly believe that?

Or is it that he runs and is defeated?  And if you think that's going to happen, then you must think something within the GOP is going to radically change after November.

Don't be fooled by Republicans publicly "falling in line". There's plenty of Republican leaders who are ready to jump if he loses re-election in November. I think it's plausible he tries to run again, but unlikely. He's always wanted to be president and now that he's "checked the box" he can always just say Washington was unfixable or some other bullshit. 

Anyway this is a discussion for another thread. 

 

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SilasCoade

SilasCoade 2620

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58 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I really find it perplexing how anybody can predict that anybody other than Donald Trump will be the GOP's nominee for President in 2024.  I mean, exactly what evidence are you looking at that makes you think (1) he won't run, and (2) when he runs, he wouldn't win the primary?

Are you assuming he loses 2020 and continues the tradition of peaceful transition of power? Even if both those are true, I'd lay higher odds on him being dead in '24 than being the nominee. Dude does not look healthy.

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