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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yep. It would also be nice that Congress and courts would agree that a state can't gerrymander the minority to practically zero representation. Larger states could actually use more rep seats to gerrymander even that much more. It would seem to be impossible to completely eliminate gerrymander but it needs to be held in check.

The Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Ohio maps are freaking bullshit. 
 

To be fair, I know Maryland is heavily gerrymandered in our favor.

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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13406

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Texas is probably a long shot this cycle, let's focus on the gotta haves.  Some recent reputable polls.

 

When you see Likely Voters (LV) going greater than 50% for a candidate 3.5 weeks out, it would seem like its down to GOTV. There's very little chance of changing a likely voter's mind. On both sides. 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33831

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lobo said:

The entire party line in the White House today is media and democrats are looking backwards at trump’s last negative test and who he was around last week.  They’re attacking that and claiming the President is also concerned with looking forward.  
 

It took me awhile, but now I realize why we suck at contact tracing. This administration doesn’t even understand where on the timeline past, present, and future you conduct contact tracing.  
 

Trump is the Wayne Gretzky of Covid-19 patients.  He doesn’t trace the virus back to when he got it, he traces the virus to when it’s going to be.  

an attempt was made

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Here the link if anyone cares.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2018-election/midterms/tx
 

Interestingly enough, if you were actually BORN in Texas, like me, you supported Hillary more than a trump in 2016 by a wide margin. It was all the assholes who moved her 10-20 years ago who gave trump the victory. 
 

So fuck all y’all! Get a rope! 

That's one that should be normalized for age.  

Young people are more likely to still live in the state they were born.  They are also more likely to vote Dem. That is likely a stronger correlation than where someone was born.  

 

 

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LurkingHorn

LurkingHorn 1044

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Shit.  Shouldn't have listened to the NYT Daily podcast.  Convinced now that half of American thinks Dems talk down to them, and will come out in force to vote for Trump, who loves them long time.

I listened to this as well and had a similar, emotional response. 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5307

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Shit.  Shouldn't have listened to the NYT Daily podcast.  Convinced now that half of American thinks Dems talk down to them, and will come out in force to vote for Trump, who loves them long time.

My takeaway after listening to that was that white peoples need to lose their enfranchisement.  Because that was spectacular  idiocracy.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104532

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

Yeah.....that one I don't get.  It's a real "slugs for salt" thing.  He and his base are absolutely happy to sacrifice every one of us as "not real Americans" given the slightest leeway to do so.  If you think they aren't interested in trying to revoke/invalidate the citizenship of first and second generation citizens who are brown, you aren't fucking listening to the actual words they are saying.

Fuck, they get people fired up to go fucking HUNTING FOR US, slaughtering us while we shop.  A world with Donald Trump in power is one that is unquestionably more dangerous and uncertain for you and your family if you are remotely hispanic.  You don't have to like Biden -- you just have to realize that Trump is a clear and present danger to you and yours.

I mean, I guess we should be encouraged....America really is becoming more equal.  Being mindnumbingly stupid isn't just reserved for angry white folks.

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Irwin F Fletcher

Irwin F Fletcher 3550

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, The Dog said:

Yup. And that's the only thing I think is possible here. There are two things I think could end up proving the polls wrong:

1. That the vast majority of the 1.5 million newly registered voters vote for Biden (of those who actually show up)

2. They are under-sampling suburban areas that are flipping Democratic (similar to under-sampling blue collar whites in 2016)

But that's about it.

I'll throw in that per Google between 150,000 - 200,000 Texans die each year, my uneducated guess is that it would impact republicans greater.

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17420

Posted
Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah.....that one I don't get.  It's a real "slugs for salt" thing.  He and his base are absolutely happy to sacrifice every one of us as "not real Americans" given the slightest leeway to do so.  If you think they aren't interested in trying to revoke/invalidate the citizenship of first and second generation citizens who are brown, you aren't fucking listening to the actual words they are saying.

Fuck, they get people fired up to go fucking HUNTING FOR US, slaughtering us while we shop.  A world with Donald Trump in power is one that is unquestionably more dangerous and uncertain for you and your family if you are remotely hispanic.  You don't have to like Biden -- you just have to realize that Trump is a clear and present danger to you and yours.

I mean, I guess we should be encouraged....America really is becoming more equal.  Being mindnumbingly stupid isn't just reserved for angry white folks.

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden votes are undercounted in those polls. If I'm Hispanic and someone calls to ask how I'll vote, particularly within 1 or 2 generations, I may very well say Trump in fear of reprisal.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6535

Posted
Posted

Castro brothers are Washington guys. Julian started a PAC but I’m unaware of any grunt work with voter registration and outreach they do. The Pete love over Beto is silly IMO and flipping Texas blue going into the next decade will accomplish more than any beat downs and evisceration!!!!! on Fox News will do.

Christina Tzintzun Ramirez and her group Jolt are probably going to be the big players for Progressives and Hispanic engagement and should be much bigger names next cycle.

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4667

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Biden desperately needing Hispanic votes. Where have the Castro brothers been?

I actually don't think the Stanford/Harvard educated Castro brothers would be the types to get out the  rural, gun-owning Mexican Americans who are thinking about voting for Trump.  Just not their brand.

Fly in Danny Trejo, maybe. 

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah.....that one I don't get.  It's a real "slugs for salt" thing.  He and his base are absolutely happy to sacrifice every one of us as "not real Americans" given the slightest leeway to do so.  If you think they aren't interested in trying to revoke/invalidate the citizenship of first and second generation citizens who are brown, you aren't fucking listening to the actual words they are saying.

Fuck, they get people fired up to go fucking HUNTING FOR US, slaughtering us while we shop.  A world with Donald Trump in power is one that is unquestionably more dangerous and uncertain for you and your family if you are remotely hispanic.  You don't have to like Biden -- you just have to realize that Trump is a clear and present danger to you and yours.

I mean, I guess we should be encouraged....America really is becoming more equal.  Being mindnumbingly stupid isn't just reserved for angry white folks.

Many Hispanics define as white.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104532

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Many Hispanics define as white.

God knows I look like one, easily.  As do both of my kids.  But the last name we bring to the table can and does get us shit on.  And we're mexican enough that we frequent/shop in establishments that would be a lovely target for a xenophobic murderer who's not up for a road trip to El Paso.

When "them" is busy demonizing people like "us," you're a fucking idiot to ever think "well, I'm enough of 'them' that I'm okay."  You're not.  Not ever.

Quote

Chaim Mordechaj Rumkowski (February 27, 1877 – August 28, 1944) was the head of the Jewish Council of Elders in the Łódź Ghetto appointed by Nazi Germany during the German occupation of Poland.

Rumkowski accrued much power by transforming the ghetto into an industrial base manufacturing war supplies for the Wehrmacht in the mistaken belief that productivity was the key to Jewish survival beyond the Holocaust. The Germans liquidated the ghetto in 1944. All remaining prisoners were sent to death camps in the wake of military defeats on the Eastern Front.

As the head of the Judenrat, Rumkowski is remembered for his speech Give Me Your Children, delivered at a time when the Germans demanded his compliance with the deportation of 20,000 children to Chełmno extermination camp. In August 1944, Rumkowski and his family joined the last transport to Auschwitz.

You may be the LAST one on the train.  But make no mistake....you're ending up on a train.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52335

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hawndoh said:

so are there really just a bunch of Texas Hispanics that are catholic and only vote based on abortion and nothing else?

What are the other reasons that group would still vote Trump after everything that has happened?

Used to be many mexican/Hispanic immigrants were hardcore against illegal immigration leniency, since they went through the legal path and felt like they were losing opportunities from competition from illegals and being assumed to be illegal. 
not sure if that is still the case. 

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mchookem

mchookem 16173

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

You guys are not factoring in how pathetic Texas voter turnout was until 2018. Thanks to the insane orange Cheeto of course. 
 

i'd thank Beto for the extraordinary Texas GOTV effort pre and post 2018. if Texas does go blue, it's bc of him.

Beto and Pete have both been absolute nails for the Biden campaign. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15463

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  This shit is going to close as we get closer to election day.  It's just natural inertia, and the advantage of incumbency/the incumbency of the ruling/favored party.

Broken record here: the election remains a toss-up.

Wait a minute--you see a poll that says Biden is up 2 points in motherfucking Georgia and your takeaway is that "the election remains a toss-up"?  

I would ask if you'd lost your damned mind, but I already know the answer to that.  So I'm just assuming that you misread the poll?

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thepop

thepop 4409

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  This shit is going to close as we get closer to election day.  It's just natural inertia, and the advantage of incumbency/the incumbency of the ruling/favored party.

Broken record here: the election remains a toss-up.

You’re basing that off Georgia when most swing states are trending the other way? 

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thepop

thepop 4409

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Wait a minute--you see a poll that says Biden is up 2 points in motherfucking Georgia and your takeaway is that "the election remains a toss-up"?  

I would ask if you'd lost your damned mind, but I already know the answer to that.  So I'm just assuming that you misread the poll?

Actually you misread the poll, but calling the election a toss up was also wrong.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17420

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Wait a minute--you see a poll that says Biden is up 2 points in motherfucking Georgia and your takeaway is that "the election remains a toss-up"?  

I would ask if you'd lost your damned mind, but I already know the answer to that.  So I'm just assuming that you misread the poll?

Well, to be fair, he sees the later poll that apparently shows a 4 point swing in Trump's favor. But, I agree, Georgia being close would suggest that the election isn't. I'll also posit that Georgia being close this late actually means Georgia is going blue. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104532

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Wait a minute--you see a poll that says Biden is up 2 points in motherfucking Georgia and your takeaway is that "the election remains a toss-up"?  

I would ask if you'd lost your damned mind, but I already know the answer to that.  So I'm just assuming that you misread the poll?

 

1 minute ago, thepop said:

You’re basing that off Georgia when most swing states are trending the other way? 

I'm reading it as a 4-point swing: 

"President Trump: 48.6% Biden: 46.8% (was Biden 47-45 last week)"

Biden was up 2.  Now Trump is up almost 2.

4-point swings....with more to come.  This is a volatile race.  The fucking insane amount of victory laps being run around here continues to blow me away.  We KNOW that the order of the day is complete and utter chaos and unpredictability.  Yet......everyone continues to act like our elections are normal, same as it ever was.  And you watch 4 point swings in a matter of days, and just shrug.

There will be more, and bigger swings, as people settle back into their natural place -- supporting the incumbent, supporting the (R), and wanting to Make America Great Again.

This entire thread is just a fucking endless series of this:

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15463

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, thepop said:

Actually you misread the poll, but calling the election a toss up was also wrong.

No--I just mistyped.

There's a whole signal-and-noise thing going on here.  I'm not going to read much into a small shift in one poll.  That easily could be noise.  The signal here is that the race is close in Georgia.  Georgia.  If a Republican is running close in Georgia, he's fucked.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

Posted
Posted

Voter turnout is insane.  That big of an increase throws a lot of uncertainty into the mix, but I think there’s higher upside for the dems in that.

 

For now I think Texas end up +3 for Trump.  Which sets it up to really be in play in 2024.  FWIW I think Georgia will be even closer, something like +1 for Trump.

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