2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Dnaguy 11767]

4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

stupid libs. some polls were kinda wrong in 2016 which means all polls are super wrong all the time. #fakenews

[horn4life 3755]

So if you are Trump what are your options now?  About the only thing that might save the GOP is the confirmation to pack the court against their own DEVOUT PRINCIPLES.  That's the hail mary, that's it.  Only other option I know of is starting a war.

Past that where does he go to help himself?  All the dams are breaking.  There are so many breaches in the levee the only choice left is to flee.  But even then for Trump there is nowhere to go.  The GOP will ram Barrett through, the cry about the overreach when the Dems win in a landslide and say the people clearly have spoken on the confirmation of the ramming through by CHEATING (BASED ON GOP PRINCIPLES SAID AGAIN AND AGAIN).  

The bottom line is the majority of folks know the GOP is a lying and cheating party.They are not going to win much of anywhere except the areas with the most recent local histories related to the Klu Klux Klan, and the most sparsely populated areas  The Barrett distraction will indeed solidify the 34%, and the all the young minorities who have registered to vote will nearly universally see the sham of fairness in packing the court by the GOP.   

The real freak out for the GOP should be that the older voter demographic is drifting away, and dying out.  

Edited October 12, 2020 by horn4life

[Bookman 4610]

Trump will double down on racism.

[Brisketexan 104550]

21 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Trump will double down on racism.

And cheating.  The disenfranchisement efforts are being amped up beyond belief.  Shit, the Ca. GOP has installed fake ballot collection boxes.  They don't even care anymore.  Burn down a polling place in a Dem area the day before the election?  Don't rule it out.

The GOP strategy has two legs: 1) inspire close to 100% turnout from your base (that means amp up the racism, hate, and fear that inspires them), and 2) do everything possible to depress turnout by your opposition.  There is ZERO element of "convince middle-range voters with the merits of your ideas" leg.

Those two legs are bad....and they need to make them even stronger, so they'll make them worse.

[4th&Five 41457]

Stiff!!!

 

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

29 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Stiff!!!

 

Covid positive Trump holding rallies. Unbelievable. 

[thepop 4409]

So Melania will cry again?

[Herpa Derpa 6110]

18 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Don’t forget the GOP also likes to package the “ family values” and “ if you care about this country, you will vote GOP” bullshit while waving the American flag as much as possible in peoples faces.

Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious.

[thepop 4409]

 

[Beau Vine 53980]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

 

 

The below was shared on Nextdoor.  It's a ring video from my neighborhood where some MAGA supporter saw a person's Biden sign and actually felt the need to go up and ring the doorbell to talk some political shit to strangers. Amazing.

 

https://ring.com/share/a0e4c448-addb-4e83-a158-8dafcba5b4b5

I assumed swam was older than that.

[Storm the Field 5271]

NYT/Siena:

WI: Biden +10 (51/41)

MI: Biden +8 (48/40)

[Beau Vine 53980]

On my street, there are quite a few Biden signs, lots of local election yard signs, and one Trumper house:

Ironically, the old bitch who lives there chairs the Historical Preservation Committee, which constantly denies other homeowners from making improvements to their houses.

I actually did some research for my ballot by walking down there and writing down a list of names they had in their yard so I could know who not to vote for.

[Mole 4320]

Yeah, voting is much simpler now that you just vote for least Trumpy.

[406W30th 1111]

I'm a little skeptical of those numbers for Michigan and Wisconsin, but if Biden wins both of those it's a virtual lock. He wouldn't need PA, OH, FL, NC, or GA.

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

In what I guess is not all that surprising news I live in Austin and have still yet to see a trump sign in a yard anywhere. I’m sure they must exist but I haven’t seen it. 
 

I am seeing out of state license plates all over the fucking place. Used to just be mainly Cali but lately it’s from everywhere. The list of out of state plates from states I haven’t seen would be much much shorter than the opposite list. 

[Brisketexan 104550]

8 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

NYT/Siena:

WI: Biden +10 (51/41)

MI: Biden +8 (48/40)

Those scare the fuck out of me.  Shitload of "undecided," and again, the Trump base is motivated.  They will show up.  And yes, SOME Biden voters are motivated as hell....but are enough of them?

[yoladu 4066]

2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Stiff!!!

 

i am hoping the majority of the American public are understanding that

01) Biden is being responsible and not holding unsafe rallies

02) Biden voters are smart enough to not go to unsafe rallies.

i am hoping that "rally size" is the new "yard sign" of bunk metrics. well, hoping and praying.

Edited October 12, 2020 by yoladu

[BrickHorn 18186]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Those scare the fuck out of me.  Shitload of "undecided," and again, the Trump base is motivated.  They will show up.  And yes, SOME Biden voters are motivated as hell....but are enough of them?

Majority Biden support in Michigan scares the fuck out of you? 

[JimmyJames 12271]

Just now, BrickHorn said:

Majority Biden support in Michigan scares the fuck out of you? 

I think if a poll said Biden plus 20 over trump, Brisket would get worried. Fake poll maybe? 

[Brisketexan 104550]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Majority Biden support in Michigan scares the fuck out of you? 

Yes.   Because 1) there's plenty of undecideds in those polls (which I take as silent Trumpers), 2) turnout is a different story than polling, and 3) voter suppression can buy a couple of points.

Any state with less than a 55% poll for Biden makes me nervous as shit.

Edited October 12, 2020 by Brisketexan

[Storm the Field 5271]

You're assuming that 100% of undecideds will break for Trump and there won't' be a single third-party vote cast.

Meanwhile, on Earth....

Edited October 12, 2020 by Storm the Field

[yoladu 4066]

9 minutes ago, 406W30th said:

I'm a little skeptical of those numbers for Michigan and Wisconsin, but if Biden wins both of those it's a virtual lock. He wouldn't need PA, OH, FL, NC, or GA.

 

I still think if he wins PA the 3 midwest states (WI, MI, MN) fall for Biden (tea leaves)

don't count on FL or NC and be sure you keep NV and pick up AZ.

[thepop 4409]

Is Brisket the political satya?

[Storm the Field 5271]

15 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I think if a poll said Biden plus 20 over trump, Brisket would get worried. Fake poll maybe? 

These devastating polls for Biden showing him near or over 50% in 2 crucial states, +13 net favorability (vs. Trump's upside down ratings), and the incumbent stuck at 40% dragged Biden's odds of winning each state upwards according to 538.

Panic time for Team Joe!

Edited October 12, 2020 by Storm the Field

[Neonmoon 38127]

We are three weeks away. It is going to get a lot crazier. Adjust your expectations. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes.   Because 1) there's plenty of undecideds in those polls (which I take as silent Trumpers), 2) turnout is a different story than polling, and 3) voter suppression can buy a couple of points.

Any state with less than a 55% poll for Biden makes me nervous as shit.

A good rule of thumb for the undecideds in polls is to give about half to each candidate. The undecideds nearly all went to Trump in 2016 because of the Comey shit and Trump had this “outsider who was going to drain the swamp” thing going for him. This year, he has neither of those and undecideds will be distributed much more evenly. They often break against the incumbent.

[Brisketexan 104550]

12 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

You're assuming that 100% of undecideds will break for Trump and there won't' be a single third-party vote cast.

Meanwhile, on Earth....

I'm afraid that a significant majority of them will break for Trump (because they are already there -- they aren't really "undecided" -- they're shy Trump voters who know they should be ashamed of voting for him, but they're looking for a reason to vote for him -- and they'll find one).  And I fear the turnout of Trump voters will be at a materially higher percentage than for Biden supporters.  And finally, I fear that vote suppression/interference will effectively knock a couple of points off of Biden's support as well.  Toss all those turds into the stewpot, and it's a tossup race.  And if there's one thing we know about life under this regime....the stewpot is swimming with turds.

Edited October 12, 2020 by Brisketexan

[heso 2748]

4 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

A good rule of thumb for the undecideds in polls is to give about half to each candidate. The undecideds nearly all went to Trump in 2016 because of the Comey shit and Trump had this “outsider who was going to drain the swamp” thing going for him. This year, he has neither of those and undecideds will be distributed much more evenly. They often break against the incumbent.

Trump WILL pull some crazy shit right before the election to try and make one last swing at the margins. 

Edited October 12, 2020 by heso

[Dahobbs 17434]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm afraid that a significant majority of them will break for Trump (because they are already there -- they aren't really "undecided" -- they're shy Trump voters who know they should be ashamed of voting for him, but they're looking for a reason to vote for him -- and they'll find one).  And I fear the turnout of Trump voters will be at a materially higher percentage than for Biden supporters.  And finally, I fear that vote suppression/interference will effectively knock a couple of points off of Biden's support as well.  Toss all those turds into the stewpot, and it's a tossup race.  And if there's one thing we know about life under this regime....the stewpot is swimming with turds.

Turnout for Trump voters will not be higher than Biden voters. I would bet a lot of money on that, at least before factoring in voter suppression (really, just straight throwing out votes is actually my main concern, I think suppression activities are actually working against the GOP this time). But I'm still very comfortable that Biden supporters will turnout at a very high clip. 

[Brisketexan 104550]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

Turnout for Trump voters will not be higher than Biden voters. I would bet a lot of money on that, at least before factoring in voter suppression (really, just straight throwing out votes is actually my main concern, I think suppression activities are actually working against the GOP this time). But I'm still very comfortable that Biden supporters will turnout at a very high clip. 

I hope you're right.  I know that the enthusiastic Biden voters are jumping at the chance to vote.  I just wonder how many of his total "support" are enthusiastic.  I know that the Trump supporters are a cult, and will jump off a cliff to show their love for their God.  So, the enthusiasm gap is still a thing, I fear.

[BradInATX 9208]

43 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

 

Huge. If they stay there, that's well out of the range of polling margin of error, even accounting for possible bad weightings in their methodologies. Biden is +7 or better in those two states on election day, you might as well pop the champagne the minute the first polls close.

[G650 14080]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I hope you're right.  I know that the enthusiastic Biden voters are jumping at the chance to vote.  I just wonder how many of his total "support" are enthusiastic.  I know that the Trump supporters are a cult, and will jump off a cliff to show their love for their God.  So, the enthusiasm gap is still a thing, I fear.

Literally every bit of empirical evidence shows Trump is a turnout machine for Dems.

[Brisketexan 104550]

Just now, G650 said:

Literally every bit of empirical evidence shows Trump is a turnout machine for Dems.

I'll trust the empirical evidence of actual votes that actually get cast and actually get counted.

Our system has never had to account for a candidate like Trump, a base like Trump's, and a criminal organization like the GOP controlling multiple levels of government, including the Federal Courts, filled with unqualified judges who owe their lifetime appointments to the candidate.  Stop treating any election involving the Trump GOP like a normal election.  It's not.

[Hank Kingsley 20678]

On election day, the story will be the "silent Biden voter". 

[Bateshorn 9898]

20 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

A good rule of thumb for the undecideds in polls is to give about half to each candidate. The undecideds nearly all went to Trump in 2016 because of the Comey shit and Trump had this “outsider who was going to drain the swamp” thing going for him. This year, he has neither of those and undecideds will be distributed much more evenly. They often break against the incumbent.

This. There is ample political science research showing late undecideds break against the incumbent. If anything,  if the election sticks to historical trends, Trump is likely to do worse than his current polling.  Even if they break 2-1 for Trump, which would be historic and unprecedented, he’s in enormous trouble.  Basically there’s a much better chance that Biden is sitting on the cusp of a landslide then Trump hitting the lotto and narrowly threading the needle a second time.

 

And the electoral math and democrat control of the elections in MI, WI, and PA  support Biden in this regard.

Edited October 12, 2020 by Bateshorn

[G650 14080]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'll trust the empirical evidence of actual votes that actually get cast and actually get counted.

That's the evidence I'm referencing. It's been on steroids since he has been in office, shattering records.

[Huckleberry 32694]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'll trust the empirical evidence of actual votes that actually get cast and actually get counted.

Our system has never had to account for a candidate like Trump, a base like Trump's, and a criminal organization like the GOP controlling multiple levels of government, including the Federal Courts, filled with unqualified judges who owe their lifetime appointments to the candidate.  Stop treating any election involving the Trump GOP like a normal election.  It's not.

If only there were an election in 2018 to look at. 

[Brisketexan 104550]

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

If only there were an election in 2018 to look at. 

Trump wasn't on the ballot.  The cult doesn't worship the GOP.  They worship Trump.  Their god is on the ballot.   They will all turn out.  All of them.

[BradInATX 9208]

5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

On election day, the story will be the "silent Biden voter". 

If things goes like I hope my story will be the "way too drunk for a Tuesday night Biden voter"

[Voldemort86 2259]

26 minutes ago, heso said:

Trump WILL pull some crazy shit right before the election to try and make one last swing at the margins. 

I don’t doubt he will try something, but I’m confident he doesn’t have something up his sleeve that will be nearly as impactful as comey was. Comey was effective because people saw him in a non partisan way. Anything bill Barr comes forward with will be tainted with Trump stink and won’t be very believable or respectable.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

Trump wasn't on the ballot.  The cult doesn't worship the GOP.  They worship Trump.  Their god is on the ballot.   They will all turn out.  All of them.

Trump is running at a 43.7% approval rating, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this is his ceiling. He's not winning reelection even if 95% Of his republican base who Trump loves to brag about shows up to vote between now and election night.

[Brisketexan 104550]

1 minute ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Trump wasn't on the ballot.  The cult doesn't worship the GOP.  They worship Trump.  Their god is on the ballot.   They will all turn out.  All of them.

Trump is running at a 43.7% approval rating, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this is his ceiling. He's not winning reelection even if 95% Of his republican base who Trump loves to brag about shows up to vote between now and election night.

He got 46.4% of the vote in 2016.  That's a lot closer to a repeat than you think.  And again, the national totals are meaningless.  States are all that matter.

[G650 14080]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Trump wasn't on the ballot. 

He was basically the only thing on the ballot actually

[Brisketexan 104550]

Just now, G650 said:

He was basically the only thing on the ballot actually

To people voting the OTHER way, absolutely.

To irrational cultists, absolutely not.  Stop thinking of Trump voters as sane, regular voters.  Start asking "what would a cultist do?", and you'll begin to understand how they behave.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

He got 46.4% of the vote in 2016.  That's a lot closer to a repeat than you think.  And again, the national totals are meaningless.  States are all that matter.

Well that's reflective of his popularity four days after the election in 2016. He had 46% approval rate with Rv/Lv. He's not threading the needle again in 2020.

[Goredho 17345]

45 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We are three weeks away. It is going to get a lot crazier. Adjust your expectations. 

Yep, Trump is going to throw about 22 more October surprises at the wall to see if one sticks.

[DigglerontheHoof 21051]

48 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We are three weeks away. It is going to get a lot crazier. Adjust your expectations. 

Yep.

Im afraid I don’t have the diabolical,  cheating imagination  trump and his cronies have , so no clue what they’ll do.

I DO know that whatever the shenanigans are, he’ll be backed up by the Senate and SCOTUS and that has me at Mack Brown level of “scares you to death “.

[Huckleberry 32694]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

To people voting the OTHER way, absolutely.

To irrational cultists, absolutely not.  Stop thinking of Trump voters as sane, regular voters.  Start asking "what would a cultist do?", and you'll begin to understand how they behave.

You're the one ignoring one side of the equation, not everybody else. Nobody doubts that Trumpkins are going to vote. You're sitting here pissing your pants because you think only Trumpkins will vote.

[Brisketexan 104550]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

You're the one ignoring one side of the equation, not everybody else. Nobody doubts that Trumpkins are going to vote. You're sitting here pissing your pants because you think only Trumpkins will vote.

I think they'll show up at 95%, and Biden supporters might be 80%, or some disparity like that.  Cult.

[Brisketexan 104550]

36 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

On election day, the story will be the "silent Biden voter". 

 

35 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This. There is ample political science research showing late undecideds break against the incumbent. If anything,  if the election sticks to historical trends, Trump is likely to do worse than his current polling.  Even if they break 2-1 for Trump, which would be historic and unprecedented, he’s in enormous trouble.  Basically there’s a much better chance that Biden is sitting on the cusp of a landslide then Trump hitting the lotto and narrowly threading the needle a second time.

 

And the electoral math and democrat control of the elections in MI, WI, and PA  support Biden in this regard.

BTW, I fervently pray that you are both correct, and my worries are entirely misplaced.

But knowing that this regime and its minions are capable of anything, I discount no awful scenario.  All are reasonably possible.