2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Biff Tannen 46061]

1 minute ago, lemonlime said:

If you're looking for somewhere to donate.  Good on Jose Andres.  Although sad that this is a thing.

This is awesome.

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

Kemp will say this is vote buying and throw out the ballots.   Well, brown people ballots at least.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Voted, early mail in ballot in Tucson Arizona. Fuck the Republican Trumplican party

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

2 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

I am reminded of a Molly Ivins piece from the early 90s, which foretold the splintering of trust in the media, as she assessed the Rush Limbaugh show. I mentioned it in a conversation with Paul Pryor, and said she had a point. He said: “Fuck you!”

Our next, and last, conversation was about fishing in the bays.

 

I really liked Paul Pryor and enjoyed his show. At its best it was one of the most organic caller-driven talk shows I ever heard.

[Born to Run 6598]

If you're looking for somewhere to donate.  Good on Jose Andres.  Although sad that this is a thing.

Nice, like a hipster version of the Diggers.

[heso 2848]

50 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Western PA should be relevant then, and the Rs need it to overcome eastern PA/philly/state college like last time. 

just saw who i quoted, lol. But I’m right aren’t I?

There might be some slight effect in the southwestern part of the state but WV produces twice as much coal as PA and has 3 times as many coal jobs. And those areas in WV were almost entirely reliant on the mines. There’s not much else there. As a whole it represents a much larger piece of the state economy. And those southwestern counties where it might matter to some are low population areas that do more fracking than coal mining. That’s why trump has been hammering fracking and hasn't mentioned coal or steel in PA this time. Even if you shifted 15% of the vote in Greene county, that’s like 2,000 votes. A more similar area would be eastern Kentucky than western PA. 

Edited October 13, 2020 by heso

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

I don't think that's true in Texas.  Cruz won the 2016 Texas primary when a  Trump nomination victory was already starting to look inevitable.

Sure. But it’s still a presidential which regardless of popularity of Trump vs Cruz you should see more votes than in an off year election for In party power. 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Even if it happens it's not the permanent change yet. Trump is a uniquely detestable person. The primary benefit for Democrats would be the State House if that flipped. 

Regardless of the 2020 Texas Presidential outcome, the next decade or so will be political war in Texas. It shouldn't be taken for granted by either side for a while. 

What this presupposes is a GOP in the near future with a conscience and a backbone. Which ain't happening. 

 

[Brisketexan 106618]

Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

What this presupposes is a GOP in the near future with a conscience and a backbone. Which ain't happening. 

 

Oh, no question -- every Repub from here to eternity needs to be branded with a scarlet T.  In a house race 10 years from now, the oppo ad should start with "Bob Smith -- a Trump Republican -- wants to bring Donald Trump's politics to our district."

[Goredho 17627]

It’s obviously early, but I am hoping we are witnessing a historical moment.  A revolution within the context of a democracy.  Citizens willing to wait hours in a crowd during a pandemic to vote will not stand for their vote being discarded or otherwise made meaningless.

Here’s to the people showing our shitastic wannabe despot President what has really made America great throughout its history.

[Dahobbs 18185]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh, no question -- every Repub from here to eternity needs to be branded with a scarlet T.  In a house race 10 years from now, the oppo ad should start with "Bob Smith -- a Trump Republican -- wants to bring Donald Trump's politics to our district."

Scarlet is too classy. Faux-gold. And using a literal brand. 

[Storm the Field 5360]

Some more noteworthy swing state polls out this afternoon.

FAU poll of FL:

Biden 51, Trump 47. Their last poll on 9/15 was 50-50.

That's 3 polls out in the past 24 hours from quality pollsters showing Biden at 51% in FL.

SurveyUSA poll of NC:

Biden 50, Trump 45.  Their last poll on 9/14 was 47-47.

7 of 8 NC polls released in October have had Biden at 49% or higher and leading by an average of ~4.5%.

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

34 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

 

A guy I know with access to very good data and intel is putting the O/U at ~15 D pickups, with a low end of about 12. 

Edited October 13, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[The Dog 44771]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Even if it happens it's not the permanent change yet. Trump is a uniquely detestable person. The primary benefit for Democrats would be the State House if that flipped. 

Regardless of the 2020 Texas Presidential outcome, the next decade or so will be political war in Texas. It shouldn't be taken for granted by either side for a while. 

This is where I'm at too Huck. I think this is mostly due to Trump - similar to two years ago when Beto nearly beat Cruz but Abbott still won easily (for lack of a better analogy off the top of my head). 

[wildcat09 29556]

 

Some real shades of the procedural fuckery from Bush v. Gore here.

[Lagunamadre 1975]

I'm glad to see everybody waiting in line to let their voice be heard, but I would remind everybody that early voting runs for 2 weeks. Don't be discouraged by long lines today, still plenty of time vote before election day. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

The big cities are encouraging, but for Texas to be in play, picking up numbers in second and third tier cities are where the flip will play out -  Ft. Worth, Waco, Tyler, Lubbock, Witchita Falls, San Angelo, San Marcos. I'm not saying those places will flip, but Democrats need to drive up numbers there and use places like Austin and Dallas to run up the score. Especially Ft Worth and Waco. McClellan county might actually be the key to the election. 

Edited October 13, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[gmr548 16681]

There might be some slight effect in the southwestern part of the state but WV produces twice as much coal as PA and has 3 times as many coal jobs. And those areas in WV were almost entirely reliant on the mines. There’s not much else there. As a whole it represents a much larger piece of the state economy. And those southwestern counties where it might matter to some are low population areas that do more fracking than coal mining. That’s why trump has been hammering fracking and hasn't mentioned coal or steel in PA this time. Even if you shifted 15% of the vote in Greene county, that’s like 2,000 votes. A more similar area would be eastern Kentucky than western PA. 

In a state won by 45k votes in 2016, every shift counts.

[Tuco 5093]

5 minutes ago, Goredho said:

It’s obviously early, but I am hoping we are witnessing a historical moment.  A revolution within the context of a democracy.  Citizens willing to wait hours in a crowd during a pandemic to vote will not stand for their vote being discarded or otherwise made meaningless.

Here’s to the people showing our shitastic wannabe despot President what has really made America great throughout its history.

Do you remember Iraq's first election, with all of the purple-dyed fingers?  The commentary was on how great it was that Democracy was taking hold in the region and how awesome it was that Iraqis participated at a high rate, in contrast to our paltry rate. 

My take was a little different.  In Iraq, if your guy didn't get elected, it meant folks in your clan/family/religion were in danger of persecution.  You were less likely to get equal access to business permits, or a fair justice system, or even a job.  Electrical service was going to be prioritized to the other side. You might even have a heightened risk of dying or having family members die in a some sectarian violence, as it was less likely you would be protected by the police. They participated at a high rate, because in an unstable, dangerous place, it mattered personally to them.

It's the luxury of wealth and stability that Americans did not participate in the political system at a similar rate.  It is a sign of the times that Americans have lost that complacency.  

I agree with you.  I do.  Because even as many Americans did not feel the need to participate, things in this country slowly went to shit.  I do hope that this is a political revolution, not only characterized by broader voting participation, but also by regular fucking people deciding they need to devote themselves to being involved, either directly running for government, or working in the campaigns of those who do, or just becoming active in grassroots organizing.  We have seen that already, and hopefully it is sustained. 

But for fucks sake, I hope it is of less dire consequence in the future. America will not permanently become a one-party system. And, as a life-long Democrat, I can recognize that competition is critical for keeping shit in check.  Republicans (or whatever replaces them) will win elections in the future; there will be R Houses, and Senates, and White Houses.  My sincere hope is that when that happens, there is little reason to take to the street.  I hope I can look at the prospect of a R-led government, and not feel sick to my stomach.  But, will the revolution continue when that is gone?  I doubt it.  

 

 

[Horn Dog 10156]

41 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Of course these fuckheads are trying to shut down allowing people to utilize drive thru ballot drop off during a pandemic 

[Dahobbs 18185]

7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The big cities are encouraging, but for Texas to be in play, picking up numbers in second and third tier cities are where the flip will play out -  Ft. Worth, Waco, Tyler, Lubbock, Witchita Falls, San Angelo, San Marcos. I'm not saying those places will flip, but Democrats need to drive up numbers there and use places like Austin and Dallas to run up the score. Especially Ft Worth and Waco. McClellan county might actually be the key to the election. 

True. And, Beto won Tarrant county, so not a bad start if Biden can do the same (I think he can).   

[Ted Lange 16353]

Any guesses on both Texas and nationally, what % of people actually vote in person on the day of the elections, vs early or by mail?

[Brisketexan 106618]

23 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

 

Some real shades of the procedural fuckery from Bush v. Gore here.

Add it to the list.  Win the Senate, and then have the Bureau seek an extension from the new Congress, which can grant an extension to the statutory deadline.  Finish the census, finish it right, and that's that.

Win.  Fucking win it all.  Then deal with the fuckery firmly and finally.

[UncleSonny 6790]

7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The big cities are encouraging, but for Texas to be in play, picking up numbers in second and third tier cities are where the flip will play out -  Ft. Worth, Waco, Tyler, Lubbock, Witchita Falls, San Angelo, San Marcos. I'm not saying those places will flip, but Democrats need to drive up numbers there and use places like Austin and Dallas to run up the score. Especially Ft Worth and Waco. McClellan county might actually be the key to the election. 

Anecdotally, Tyler remains Trumpy as hell. Tons of very enthusiastic and vocal support around town. Even the less enthusiastic ones I talked to a few weeks ago have adopted the line, "I just can't believe these two clowns are our only options. I'm going to vote for Trump because at least Oil and Gas/the economy will be better under him". 

I did manage to convince my parents that voting 3rd party is a vote for Trump and so they are both voting for a Democrat for probably the first time in their lives. But their friends now think they are insane for even entertaining Biden as an option. 

[SydneyCarton 49325]

10 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Of course these fuckheads are trying to shut down allowing people to utilize drive thru ballot drop off during a pandemic 

Lets me clear. This isn't dropping off ballots. They won that battle already. This is 12 specific drive thru polling places where you don't have to leave your car. Which there have been hundreds of today. 

[gmr548 16681]

The big cities are encouraging, but for Texas to be in play, picking up numbers in second and third tier cities are where the flip will play out -  Ft. Worth, Waco, Tyler, Lubbock, Witchita Falls, San Angelo, San Marcos. I'm not saying those places will flip, but Democrats need to drive up numbers there and use places like Austin and Dallas to run up the score. Especially Ft Worth and Waco. McClellan county might actually be the key to the election. 

Williamson and Tarrant have been presidential bellweathers for Texas in contemporary elections. Like nearly on the dot. Sane for 2018 - they were also only a point or two to the left of the state in 2018 for both the Senate and Governor's races.

Those are the counties to watch, IMO, along with turnout in strongholds. If you see Biden winning Tarrant County and winning Williamson by more than a point or two (have to be more liberal with the margin here given how explosively Williamson has grown and shifted leftward), you can start thinking shit is going down.

Generally agree democrats can't leave anything on the field. Getting 28 percent of the vote in Abeline might not seem like much of an improvement over 25, but they all count the same, and anything that can be done to trim the margins is a win.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Boomshakalaka 

1.25 million people in Harris County voted in 2016 general election. Looks like we'll hit 10% of that number just today. 

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Amazes me where states like West Virginia and Alabama year after year are one of the poorest and least educated states in the country and the people are still are like yeah, sign me up for more of that.

[jimmyjazz 46972]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Kemp will say this is vote buying and throw out the ballots.   Well, brown people ballots at least.

Anyone who took pinto or black beans, out.

[Dahobbs 18185]

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

but they all count the same, and anything that can be done to trim the margins is a win.

Some only count 3/5s. 

--originalist jurists--

[DigglerontheHoof 21516]

3 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Amazes me where states like West Virginia and Alabama year after year are one of the poorest and least educated states in the country and the people are still are like yeah, sign me up for more of that.

gumps gonna gump

[BrickHorn 18424]

2 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Amazes me where states like West Virginia and Alabama year after year are one of the poorest and least educated states in the country and the people are still are like yeah, sign me up for more of that.

It’s almost like ignorance correlates with poor decisions.

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

4 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Amazes me where states like West Virginia and Alabama year after year are one of the poorest and least educated states in the country and the people are still are like yeah, sign me up for more of that.

I bolded the important part.

Edited October 13, 2020 by Fudge Nuggets
Fucking autocorrect

[Biff Tannen 46061]

1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

gumps gonna gump

Gumps have always gumped, but with social media, now they can MEGA GUMP and fuck all the rest of us.

[jimmyjazz 46972]

33 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The big cities are encouraging, but for Texas to be in play, picking up numbers in second and third tier cities are where the flip will play out -  Ft. Worth, Waco, Tyler, Lubbock, Witchita Falls, San Angelo, San Marcos. I'm not saying those places will flip, but Democrats need to drive up numbers there and use places like Austin and Dallas to run up the score. Especially Ft Worth and Waco. McClellan county might actually be the key to the election. 

Ft. Worth is roughly the size of Austin.  Just being pedantic here, because me.

[Beau Vine 55824]

35 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The big cities are encouraging, but for Texas to be in play, picking up numbers in second and third tier cities are where the flip will play out -  Ft. Worth, Waco, Tyler, Lubbock, Witchita Falls, San Angelo, San Marcos. I'm not saying those places will flip, but Democrats need to drive up numbers there and use places like Austin and Dallas to run up the score. Especially Ft Worth and Waco. McClellan county might actually be the key to the election. 

San Marcos is consistently blue -- it's Wimberley and Dripping that drive the county red.

[Goredho 17627]

4 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Do you remember Iraq's first election, with all of the purple-dyed fingers?  The commentary was on how great it was that Democracy was taking hold in the region and how awesome it was that Iraqis participated at a high rate, in contrast to our paltry rate. 

My take was a little different.  In Iraq, if your guy didn't get elected, it meant folks in your clan/family/religion were in danger of persecution.  You were less likely to get equal access to business permits, or a fair justice system, or even a job.  Electrical service was going to be prioritized to the other side. You might even have a heightened risk of dying or having family members die in a some sectarian violence, as it was less likely you would be protected by the police. They participated at a high rate, because in an unstable, dangerous place, it mattered personally to them.

It's the luxury of wealth and stability that Americans did not participate in the political system at a similar rate.  It is a sign of the times that Americans have lost that complacency.  

I agree with you.  I do.  Because even as many Americans did not feel the need to participate, things in this country slowly went to shit.  I do hope that this is a political revolution, not only characterized by broader voting participation, but also by regular fucking people deciding they need to devote themselves to being involved, either directly running for government, or working in the campaigns of those who do, or just becoming active in grassroots organizing.  We have seen that already, and hopefully it is sustained. 

But for fucks sake, I hope it is of less dire consequence in the future. America will not permanently become a one-party system. And, as a life-long Democrat, I can recognize that competition is critical for keeping shit in check.  Republicans (or whatever replaces them) will win elections in the future; there will be R Houses, and Senates, and White Houses.  My sincere hope is that when that happens, there is little reason to take to the street.  I hope I can look at the prospect of a R-led government, and not feel sick to my stomach.  But, will the revolution continue when that is gone?  I doubt it.  

 

 

I think it is human nature to take things for granted which have always been.  This is why some of the best Americans are immigrants.  They tangibly know that life can be very different than what those of us born here have experienced.

Likewise, it is human nature to overlook problems until there is tangible pain.  Many Americans didn't realize how dangerous a Trump presidency was until there was a no shit, bonafide crisis that exposed how much at risk we all are under his horrific leadership.  The coronavirus doesn't really care if you are rich, poor, white, black, brown, male, female, old or young.  It will infect and can easily kill you or someone you love.  In a strange way, it has bonded at least the good and decent among us together as human beings facing a shared peril.

This crisis and Trump's failed leadership within it are revealing who we are.  And as disheartening as it is to see someone like Trump still being the piper for an alarming number of people, I am greatly encouraged to see huge numbers of ordinary Americans responding with common sense and human decency to do the right thing for the common good.

Will that be an enduring change?  Maybe not.  But for now, I will take it.
 

[Texaspython 231]

25 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Williamson and Tarrant have been presidential bellweathers for Texas in contemporary elections. Like nearly on the dot. Sane for 2018 - they were also only a point or two to the left of the state in 2018 for both the Senate and Governor's races.

Those are the counties to watch, IMO, along with turnout in strongholds. If you see Biden winning Tarrant County and winning Williamson by more than a point or two (have to be more liberal with the margin here given how explosively Williamson has grown and shifted leftward), you can start thinking shit is going down.

Generally agree democrats can't leave anything on the field. Getting 28 percent of the vote in Abeline might not seem like much of an improvement over 25, but they all count the same, and anything that can be done to trim the margins is a win.

Tarrant finally has some Democratic Judicial candidates on the ballot again. I think that’ll help.

Edited October 13, 2020 by Texaspython

[BrickHorn 18424]

4 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I think it is human nature to take things for granted which have always been.

It’s called normalcy bias and it caused a lot of otherwise smart, decent people to completely fail to see the threats posed by Trump and, 3 years later, COVID.

[GhostOfTomJoad 9483]

Wilco has gone purple/light blue since 2018. The John Bucy's and Corbin Van Arsdale's are helping. Corbin in particular as mayor of CP and a RINO to many considering how much he supports and endorses D candidates for the CP city council is showing that--surprise--the good ol' boy network is way outdated for this area. CP's growth has exploded with educated, higher income residents. Leander is following a similar path. Sun City in Georgetown was a reliable GOP stronghold but Trump and the Texas GOP telling the olds they need to hurry up and die for the sake of the economy is gonna take its toll.

Wilco probably still goes Trump this cycle, but I bet the numbers are close enough to make Texas GOP strategists sweat for days.

[The Dog 44771]

4 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Wilco probably still goes Trump this cycle, but I bet the numbers are close enough to make Texas GOP strategists sweat for days.

More people in Wilco voted in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary back in March. Not sure that says much for the general though.

[SydneyCarton 49325]

22 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

San Marcos is consistently blue -- it's Wimberley and Dripping that drive the county red.

That’s surprising to me. Lots of houston folks and austin folks moving to Wimberley and Dripping Springs. I wouldn’t have expected it to be so stark. 

[GhostOfTomJoad 9483]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

More people in Wilco voted in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary back in March. Not sure that says much for the general though.

I wanna believe, brother. But there was no need for Rs to vote in March since Trump was the de facto candidate. I'd love to come back here on Nov 4th and say I underestimated the D turnout in Wilco.

[GhostOfTomJoad 9483]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

That’s surprising to me. Lots of houston folks and austin folks moving to Wimberley and Dripping Springs. I wouldn’t have expected it to be so stark. 

I'd wager that a lot of the draw is people believing the marketing plans and buying their Hill Country "ranchette" so they can get away from the big city libs. And the Drip is heavy evangelical. Mega churches are popping up left & right.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

1 hour ago, Goredho said:

It’s obviously early, but I am hoping we are witnessing a historical moment.  A revolution within the context of a democracy.  Citizens willing to wait hours in a crowd during a pandemic to vote will not stand for their vote being discarded or otherwise made meaningless.

Here’s to the people showing our shitastic wannabe despot President what has really made America great throughout its history.

This is my thought and literally the through point of what I’ve been telling Brisket. 
just watch. You are seeing it. America isn’t all that fragile. 

[The Dog 44771]

9 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

I wanna believe, brother. But there was no need for Rs to vote in March since Trump was the de facto candidate. I'd love to come back here on Nov 4th and say I underestimated the D turnout in Wilco.

This was the results from two years ago: https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist331_county246.htm

Wilco was already purple in 2018 and is only getting bluer the way things are going. Still think Carter holds on to his seat but there will be a "Biden effect" that will assist others.

Adding 2016 for comparison: https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist319_county246.htm

 

Edited October 13, 2020 by The Dog

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

A guy I know with access to very good data and intel is putting the O/U at ~15 D pickups, with a low end of about 12. 

Yeah- the house isn’t in play it’s a done deal. 

[Goredho 17627]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is my thought and literally the through point of what I’ve been telling Brisket. 
just watch. You are seeing it. America isn’t all that fragile. 

I'll gladly pay off Brisket's food bank debt if you are right 😆

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

For reference, here are the 2016 Texas county results from the 2016 general election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas#By_county

Edited October 13, 2020 by Hank Kingsley