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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

Is California in play?  Or is Trump really high? Very late tweet for him.

 

Dibs on ‘brownouts too many’ for my band name and/or German porn channel.  

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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Thatguy

Thatguy 8504

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, honolulu horn said:

Weird, because Trump has done more for black people in America than any other president aside from Lincoln. I know it's true because he says it every five seconds. 

    They need to disclose those names, so the rest of us Black Folks can go and deal with them properly.

 

A-Clockwork-Orange-3.jpg

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gmr548

gmr548 16514

Posted
Posted
Anyone got any predictions for turnout this year?
Historical below
image.png.3213def975c19b65beb2e23323949c52.png
I think it would be awesome if we hit 65%
65 percent VAP is absurd in modern day America. Not happening. High 50s, at or slightly above 2008 levels (highest since 68) would be great success /borat. 60 percent, which hasn't happened in 50 years, would be a historic achievement.
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

I wrote multiple papers about it in college but the turnout of '52-'68 will never cease to amaze me.  I mean, it's pathetic for a Western Democracy.  But think about those candidates, think about the "hot topics" ('68 notwithstanding).  Still bottles the mind how we got that hight of turnout.  I bet we get 58-59% this time around though.  Suppression day of and after election day, will knock it down a couple of points though. I don't see people going through the trouble of registering in record numbers the last 30 days just to sit back and think "Meh..."  Then again, maybe they were just bored during a pandemic and just enjoyed filling out forms.  

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mdmost

mdmost 42865

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Posted (edited)

"What's the worst that can happen" always seems like the least compelling argument for why you should vote for someone. A lot of Gary Johnson voters adopted this policy in 2016. We saw what the worst was. 

Edited by mdmost
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Every one of these polls fucking suck. Please tell me they're trash. I'm assuming anything with SurveyMonkey attached is fucking trash. 

I mean- they don’t portend a 400+ electoral college blowout but if those are the real numbers in those states Tajana a guaranteed Biden win. 
that's moving 5 points to the left in almost every state in play. Were that you happen Biden wins comfortably. And that’s one of Trumps better polls out. 

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Goredho

Goredho 17348

Posted
Posted

Survey Monkey is a platform for creating online surveys, not unlike what you can do with a "poll" post on this board.  You get a link that can be sent to invitees for them to respond to your poll and then analytics about the result.  I have no idea if their publicized political polls have any more rigor to them.

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6554

Posted
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13 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Survey Monkey is a platform for creating online surveys, not unlike what you can do with a "poll" post on this board.  You get a link that can be sent to invitees for them to respond to your poll and then analytics about the result.  I have no idea if their publicized political polls have any more rigor to them.

Would this be the same type of poll that Michael Cohen was manipulating in 2016 to favor Trump?

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Holy fucking shit. Those numbers are amazing. I don’t know that I believe them, or else- if the are correct they are the outer bounds of what’s possible I think, but it’s probably in play. Wow. 

What doesn't track with those numbers?  That Trump is getting only 4% of the Black vote?  As we discussed yesterday, that sounds right.  He may be getting 12% of the Black male vote, but if he's getting >1% of the Black woman vote--and I think naming Kamala Harris has done a lot of prevent any bleed-off of Black women--then 4% may be about right due to the fact that Black women vote at a much higher rate than Black men.

What else looks wrong?  Trump losing women by 24 points?  I mean, especially when you recognize that together, white college-educated, Black, and Hispanic women make up a majority of women in this country, and those groups fucking hate Trump, that seems about right.

Those numbers with seniors are only going to go down.  As it comes down that the Administration is adopting a herd-immunity policy . . . seniors know that they're the weakest members of the herd with respect to this particular virus.  The Administration's policy is literally to kill them so that younger people can get back to normal a little more quickly.

This poll has Trump down 11.  And honestly, if you set the O/U for the final margin at 11, I think I'd have a hard time deciding which side to bet on.

3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

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So this is what you do when you raise $383M in September alone.  I've been wondering how they were going to spend all that money.

By the way--I really think they ought to be giving some of it to Al Gross in Alaska.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Question. Is it intentional strategy for the Biden team to be completely silent on Trump's impeachment? By my count it was brought up twice in the debates. Once by Trump, once by Pence. 

Because it's probably not going to get undecided voters to think warmly of Democrats. You answered your own question with who brought it up. Trump thinks that surviving impeachment is a selling point. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

What doesn't track with those numbers?  That Trump is getting only 4% of the Black vote?  As we discussed yesterday, that sounds right.  He may be getting 12% of the Black male vote, but if he's getting >1% of the Black woman vote--and I think naming Kamala Harris has done a lot of prevent any bleed-off of Black women--then 4% may be about right due to the fact that Black women vote at a much higher rate than Black men.

What else looks wrong?  Trump losing women by 24 points?  I mean, especially when you recognize that together, white college-educated, Black, and Hispanic women make up a majority of women in this country, and those groups fucking hate Trump, that seems about right.

Those numbers with seniors are only going to go down.  As it comes down that the Administration is adopting a herd-immunity policy . . . seniors know that they're the weakest members of the herd with respect to this particular virus.  The Administration's policy is literally to kill them so that younger people can get back to normal a little more quickly.

This poll has Trump down 11.  And honestly, if you set the O/U for the final margin at 11, I think I'd have a hard time deciding which side to bet on.

So this is what you do when you raise $383M in September alone.  I've been wondering how they were going to spend all that money.

By the way--I really think they ought to be giving some of it to Al Gross in Alaska.

Agreed on Alaska that’s the smart play as opposed to saturation in other places they don’t need money. 
I’m not drawing a line in the sand that it won’t be 11, but I’d bet the under without worrying. 

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The Dog

The Dog 43805

Posted
Posted (edited)

SurveyMonkey is trash and not very scientific. Whenever I see them pop up on 538 I use the slider to filter out the D or lower polls. 

From 538 in 2018:

Quote

SurveyMonkey, which sometimes partners with FiveThirtyEight on non-election-related polling projects, conducted polling in all 50 states in 2016, asking about both the presidential election and races for governor and the U.S. Senate. Unlike some other attempts to poll all 50 states,1 SurveyMonkey took steps to ensure that each state was weighed individually and that respondents to the poll were located within the correct state. Thus, FiveThirtyEight treated these polls as we did any other state poll. Unfortunately, the results just weren’t good, with an average error2 of 7.3 percentage points and an Advanced Plus-Minus score of +2.3.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

 

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Anyone got any predictions for turnout this year?

Historical below

image.png.3213def975c19b65beb2e23323949c52.png

I think it would be awesome if we hit 65%

Biden needs to stay his ass in the area that matters most: PA, MI, WI, MN, OH, IA.  Harris can probably do the most good in NC, GA, and FL.  Tell Beto he’s on his own in TX unless he can recruit Barack and Michelle to come help.  Call on every willing left-leaning celebrity to help Kelly and Cindy McCain in AZ.  Money can also help in TX and AZ via ad buys and phone banks.  
 

My o/u on voter turnout is 58.2%.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Ted Lange

Ted Lange 16052

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Because it's probably not going to get undecided voters to think warmly of Democrats. You answered your own question with who brought it up. Trump thinks that surviving impeachment is a selling point. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/public_approval_of_the_impeachment_and_removal_of_president_trump-6957.html
 

trumps stormy Daniels infidelity and illegal payoffs and his scam charity are much better things to hit him with. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

 

 

 

Biden needs to stay his ass in the area that matters most: PA, MI, WI, MN, OH, IA.  Harris can probably do the most good in NC, GA, and FL.  Tell Beto he’s on his own in TX unless he can recruit Barack and Michelle to come help.  Call on every willing left-leaning celebrity to help Kelly and Cindy McCain in AZ.  Money can also help in TX and AZ via ad buys and phone banks.  
 

My o/u on voter turnout is 58.2%.

This is the way. 
Texas would be righteous but don’t go chasing waterfalls, be smart. 

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Captainant

Captainant 27464

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

correct course of action is at least 10 days of quarantine/social distancing after interacting with a COVID-positive person, this is a good opportunity to show how you can still campaign SAFELY while following health and safety best practices

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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54 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

 

Those idiot senate republicans wanted democrats to be angry and treat Barrett like shit. Democrats aren’t stupid like most republicans. Barrett is going to get confirmed no matter what we do. Might as well just protect our lead, be nice to Barrett, and bring up topics that make democrats look good.

graham acts like a nice guy, but he’s just a feckless pussy.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Those idiot senate republicans wanted democrats to be angry and treat Barrett like shit. Democrats aren’t stupid like most republicans. Barrett is going to get confirmed no matter what we do. Might as well just protect our lead, be nice to Barrett, and bring up topics that make democrats look good.

graham acts like a nice guy, but he’s just a feckless pussy.

They played it perfectly with the confirmation hearing. Picking the fight with Kavanaugh worked against them in a half dozen senate seats (didn't flip them all but didn't help anywhere) and it would have been uglier with Barrett for them if it went ugly.  GOP used to be able to count on Dems to be really stupid.  Looks like Dems figured out how not to be stupid.  

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