2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Brisketexan 104,628]

4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

 Sorry, but I'm voting for folks like Becky Bray for County Commissioner. Raul Vargas for Sheriff.  Jeff Rose for Court of Appeals (even though he's gonna step down shortly since he didn't get tapped for Supreme Court of TX), Lani Popp, and a few others for Texas Supreme Court.  By my pre-printed ballot, I am voting for Biden and 3 other Democrats, 3 Libertarians (my usual go-to, but I think we all know where's just not as many on the ballot this time around), against the 3 props on my ballot, couple of school board choices, and what everybody is waiting on pins and needles to hear about---Lobo endorses for Edwards Aquifer Conservation Precinct #4---Bob Larsen. 

I have to stay in the party's good graces.  So that it's made even more sweet when we rise up against Dan Patrick in 2022.  the amount of money that's been bundled already to remove him from public office in perpetuity and put him back where he belongs---sucking off glory hole customers at truck stops for new radio headphones...would boggle your mind.  I can't believe how many enemies he's made already.  

Anyway, back to Biden and Trump.  Go Biden.  

At the very least, you should vote for the Dem in all of the judicial races you listed.  3rd court, SCOTX.  Vote for the Dem.  Please.   It's important.  Particularly for the SCOTX.  We HAVE to get some balance back there.

And yeah, I stand by my point -- there are no benevolent members of a malevolent death cult.  You really should vote against them all.  GOP wants to have its decent candidates taken seriously and have a chance?  Cool.  Stop being a psychotic death cult.  Until they do, vote against them all.

[tantric superman 4,667]

27 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

Holy shit, that's a good goddamn ad.

[Brisketexan 104,628]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

The bolded is a contradiction.  Square it for me.

It can't be.  "I'm a credible candidate, with a decent work history and a platform of reasonable ideas.  And also, I am a member of a death cult that is defined by its requirement of 100% loyalty to a psychopath, and dissemination of evil and nuttery on a scale never seen before in this country."  The "and also" is a 100% disqualifier.  

[SydneyCarton 47,884]

32 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Y'all need to get ready for Trump to protest the results, even if Biden gets 400 EVs. 

 

28 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

That's a wonderful ad. It's hard to watch, and it makes me very sad. Wish they'd added in last night's town hall. "That's cute."

20 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

They make good ads.

I know it's going to bother some of the hard-core Democrats on this board, but don't be surprised if you see someone like Steve Schmidt running a Democratic campaign for president within the next few cycles.

I could give zero fucks. I hope he gets employed up and down the left side. I voted republican most of my life. Do you also not want my fucking vote? Anyone with that attitude is fucking stupid. 

7 minutes ago, Lobo said:

 Sorry, but I'm voting for folks like Becky Bray for County Commissioner. Raul Vargas for Sheriff.  Jeff Rose for Court of Appeals (even though he's gonna step down shortly since he didn't get tapped for Supreme Court of TX), Lani Popp, and a few others for Texas Supreme Court.  By my pre-printed ballot, I am voting for Biden and 3 other Democrats, 3 Libertarians (my usual go-to, but I think we all know where's just not as many on the ballot this time around), against the 3 props on my ballot, couple of school board choices, and what everybody is waiting on pins and needles to hear about---Lobo endorses for Edwards Aquifer Conservation Precinct #4---Bob Larsen. 

I have to stay in the party's good graces.  So that it's made even more sweet when we rise up against Dan Patrick in 2022.  the amount of money that's been bundled already to remove him from public office in perpetuity and put him back where he belongs---sucking off glory hole customers at truck stops for new radio headphones...would boggle your mind.  I can't believe how many enemies he's made already.  

Anyway, back to Biden and Trump.  Go Biden.  

I don't care how many enemies you tell me he's made, and I don't care how much money is in reserve to buy him out of office and I'd tell you it's still not enough. I don't care what the numbers are, I'm amazed he doesn't have more enemies. 

[Tuco 5,076]

29 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

He will protest the results no matter what.  But if Biden gets 350+, there’s no way the courts or Senate give him the election.  People will abandon him.

I am willing to be that 90% of Republican politicians want him to go away nearly as bad as we do.  They are tired of having to meekly defend his actions and rhetoric.  They don't want another 4 years of this shit. They are more successful as an opposition party.  

[Pancho 44,487]

 

[Bookman 4,610]

Then 90% of Republicans should have grown a spine sometime in the last four years. The people of this country are going to give them a lesson they’ll never forget.

[Biff Tannen 45,499]

5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I am willing to be that 90% of Republican politicians want him to go away nearly as bad as we do

Well there's a pretty simple way to make that happen.  And they aren't doing it.  So I will take your bet.

[Pancho 44,487]

It’s buzzfeed, but still 

 

[Brisketexan 104,628]

5 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Then 90% of Republicans should have grown a spine sometime in the last four years. The people of this country are going to give them a lesson they’ll never forget.

Fucking this.

They had their chance to do the right thing.  

They have chosen not to.  

So be it.  Now, we fight this till the fucking end.  ALL the way to the end.  Not a partial end, not an arguable end, the END.

 

 

[ndawg 1,242]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Well there's a pretty simple way to make that happen.  And they aren't doing it.  So I will take your bet.

Yep. Everyone who associated their reputation to the Republican party already called it back long ago. The poor souls who remained were the ones who tied not their reputation but their core identity to the party. The former saw Trump as an interloper who killed the GOP the minute he secured the nomination, and the latter were completely oblivious to it's death, and were duped into supporting an international crime syndicate that stole the GOP's name.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

22 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Lani Popp

If I can pitch one down ballot vote, DO NOT VOTE FOR LANI POPP.

 

She is a "slavery wasn't the real cause of the civil war, evolution has a lot of holes in it, sex education should not happen in schools" lady trying to make our school textbooks a safespace for rednecks.  

 

Vote for Bell-Metereau instead.

[Tuco 5,076]

9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Well there's a pretty simple way to make that happen.  And they aren't doing it.  So I will take your bet.

It's simple, but costly.  Opposing Trump means losing the Trumpkin vote, which means losing elections.  They just want the problem to go away without sacrificing anything. Which is pretty much how they approach any problem - global warming, deadly pandemics, national debt, etc..

 

Edited to add: and yeah, fuck them.  They are cowards and pussies masquerading as leaders, patriots, and Christians.  Fuck all of them.  

Edited October 16, 2020 by Tuco

[Longhornmaniac8 255]

27 minutes ago, Lobo said:

 Sorry, but I'm voting for folks like Becky Bray for County Commissioner. Raul Vargas for Sheriff.  Jeff Rose for Court of Appeals (even though he's gonna step down shortly since he didn't get tapped for Supreme Court of TX), Lani Popp, and a few others for Texas Supreme Court.  By my pre-printed ballot, I am voting for Biden and 3 other Democrats, 3 Libertarians (my usual go-to, but I think we all know where's just not as many on the ballot this time around), against the 3 props on my ballot, couple of school board choices, and what everybody is waiting on pins and needles to hear about---Lobo endorses for Edwards Aquifer Conservation Precinct #4---Bob Larsen. 

I have to stay in the party's good graces.  So that it's made even more sweet when we rise up against Dan Patrick in 2022.  the amount of money that's been bundled already to remove him from public office in perpetuity and put him back where he belongs---sucking off glory hole customers at truck stops for new radio headphones...would boggle your mind.  I can't believe how many enemies he's made already.  

Anyway, back to Biden and Trump.  Go Biden.  

Bob Larsen is a great choice. My dad used to be the GM of BSEACD.

[Horn Dogg 3,808]

41 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I have voted for a lot of Republicans in a lot of elections, even after I had my first daughter.  I will be voting for several Republican candidates next week.  

But I just do not understand how any of you Surly dads who have daughters could possibly entertain voting for Trump for President.  What an absolutely spineless move.  

We're all modern dads navigating the brave new world, trying to be there for our children.  I don't know what it's like to have a son.  But if you have a young daughter (I have two), I simply do cannot wrap my head how you could support this human filth. 

What Trump, and his supporters, attempted to normalize with regard to how young women are treated will haunt us for decades.  Be a dad they don't have to live in shame of. 

I have 2 young sons and no daughters, but I also don’t want Trump’s behaviors to be witnessed by them as they learn how to act.  I want my sons to grow up and treat women and everyone else with respect.  That’s one of the main reasons (among about a million others) that I’m an independent that’s voting for Biden.

[tantric superman 4,667]

19 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Then 90% of Republicans should have grown a spine sometime in the last four years. The people of this country are going to give them a lesson they’ll never forget.

I'd like that to be true, but it's only a lesson if the Senate turns.  If it doesn't we simply haven't sent them the appropriate message. 

And given we elected Ted Cruz two years ago, I'm not holding my breath about Texas sending a message anytime soon.

[TexEx15 17,487]

22 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Holy shit, that's a good goddamn ad.

As a father of 3 daughters this hits home like a ton of bricks.  There is a time and place for good faith policy differences and elections that are decided on those differences.  This is election is not that.  This election is about character and decency and living up to the ideals of the UNITED States of America.  Trump cannot unite two magnets let alone our country.  And here is the worst part of that statement.  It’s not just because he simply is not up to the job, which he is not.  But rather that he actively tries to divide the country at every turn.  He likes to compare himself to Lincoln yet he simply cannot understand that “a house divided against itself, cannot stand.” 

[SydneyCarton 47,884]

30 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

26% returned is more than alarming. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,843]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

26% returned is more than alarming. 

'splain

[WBT 20,422]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Check this out. I've been casually batting this around in my head and we've talked about it some here but I decided to put something on the screen to get a real look at it. 

I can't get it out of my head how badly some of the individual state polls missed last time around and there's a "worst case scenario" that I can't kick. So I put some "what if 2016 happens again" numbers together.

This shows who would win battleground states based on current polling vs. each state's actual election results and how they skewed vs. the RCP polling average on election day. Black line represents the 2016 poll miss, the bars are Biden's current poll lead. What we want to see is the bar go past the line. So for example in PA Biden's lead is 5.7%, but RCP missed by 2.6% last time. If the polls missed the same way, Biden would still win by 3.1%, which is my "adjusted" number.

 

A few things stand out:

- AZ, MI, PA all look very safe and pretty well out of reach of polling error.
- Arizona is actually the most solid swing state out there in this analysis. It's more likely to go Biden than Wisconsin is IMO. Arizona could end up being our surprise insurance policy against the Rust Belt.
- Look at how crazy Wisconsin is. Biden is up by 6.3% but Trump outperformed polls by a huge 7.2% last time. I don't trust Wisconsin at all.
- Despite him having small polling leads, Biden is not probably not going to win Ohio or Iowa unless this is an absolute best-case scenario wipeout election.

This eased my nerves a little. Even if Wisconsin does weird white people things, and even if you call GA/FL "too close to call", the PA/MI/AZ combo gets Biden there:

 

Obviously not as much of a statement as you'd like it to be, and would spark endless lawsuits, but it puts Biden in office. And if Florida and one or both of GA/NC go blue too, it's a pretty resounding win. 

The only chance Trump has to win is if there's some sort of hidden groundswell of newly-politically-active Trump voters that none of the pollsters or pundits are picking up (possible), and there is no corresponding bump for team blue (seems almost impossible). 

Congrats for starting to look at this objectively.  There's still way too much bed wetting going on.

Biden's floor is in the low 330s.  I'd put the over/under somewhere around 348-350.  That will be decided on whether he wins Ohio or Georgia.

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 minutes ago, WBT said:

Congrats for starting to look at this objectively.  There's still way too much bed wetting going on.

Biden's floor is in the low 330s.  I'd put the over/under somewhere around 348-350.  That will be decided on whether he wins Ohio or Georgia.

Do you feel like this post added to the conversation? Biden's floor is not 330. That was not at all the point or takeaway from what I showed. His floor is pretty much the map I posted (279).

Edited October 16, 2020 by BradInATX

[SydneyCarton 47,884]

3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

'splain

You know, I read that initially as "ballots returned to voters because of mistakes or rejection."

That's why I was concerned. It didn't dawn on me that it just meant "returned through mail." In other words, I'm a fucking idiot. 

[gmr548 16,517]

 

Loys of ways to read that. Seeing 75 percent of other/independents opting for mail ballots and knowing mail votes will likely break strongly for Biden, tells you Biden is in good shape with independents, which would likeky prove decisive in a legitimate election.

On the other hand, depending on turn out, Trump could absolutely be winning on election night since PA can't count mail votes until then. That will absolutely lead to litigation on an unprecedented scale.

PA is shaping up to be a shitshow. Hopefully Biden gets to 270 without it. He appears to be in great position in PA but I have little to no faith in the count.

[HenryJames 65,890]

 

[WBT 20,422]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Do you feel like this post added to the conversation? 

alas, probably not

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, WBT said:

alas, probably not

Not trying to be a dick but when someone comes around to your point of view, your first reaction shouldn't be "SEE I TOLD YOU LOL DUMB ASS". 

It's part of what's wrong with political discourse both on the CR and in the world in general. Take yes for an answer, all's I'm saying. 

[Beau Vine 54,003]

48 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

If I can pitch one down ballot vote, DO NOT VOTE FOR LANI POPP.

 

She is a "slavery wasn't the real cause of the civil war, evolution has a lot of holes in it, sex education should not happen in schools" lady trying to make our school textbooks a safespace for rednecks.  

 

Vote for Bell-Metereau instead.

I don't have the slightest clue why anyone would vote for a Republican for any board of education.

Also, Lani Popp sounds like a porn name. 

[Horndog 2,218]

21 minutes ago, WBT said:

Congrats for starting to look at this objectively.  There's still way too much bed wetting going on.

Biden's floor is in the low 330s.  I'd put the over/under somewhere around 348-350.  That will be decided on whether he wins Ohio or Georgia.

So, a Bluenami?

[Guest Lobo]

I was only thinking about voting for her because she at least took out the psycho Rob Morrow.  Happy to vote for an alternative in the general race.  
 

back on topic:  I prefer Biden to Trump. 
 

I don’t know if it’s the Yellow Car effect but holy shit-the Biden yard signs in my little hood have gone up exponentially in the last few days. We are about 100homes.  There was maybe 3 at the start of October.  We are up to about 20 Now.  It’s an interesting area.  We are a blue neighborhood in a red part of Austin in a blue city of Austin in Red Texas.  

[mdmost 42,865]

4 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I don't have the slightest clue why anyone would vote for a Republican for any board of education.

Also, Lani Popp sounds like a porn name. 

Going into most elections, I will consider either candidate for a position. But no, not this time. This time the scourge of Trump has to be eradicated from the Republican Party. So every Democrat gets my vote. 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4,669]

27 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Do you feel like this post added to the conversation? Biden's floor is not 330. That was not at all the point or takeaway from what I showed. His floor is pretty much the map I posted (279).

I think his floor is 259. I will not be counting the PA chicken until it’s hatched, particularly with the potential vote counting delay.

[Zonahorn 8,079]

 I'm starting to see a ton of Kelly and Biden signs on my route to work here in Tucson. My mom and I have seen 2 Trump signs, and I've seen one Mcsally sign so far.

Edited October 16, 2020 by Calihorn

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,843]

 

[texastough 1,129]

8 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Going into most elections, I will consider either candidate for a position. But no, not this time. This time the scourge of Trump has to be eradicated from the Republican Party. So every Democrat gets my vote. 

This will be true until all the current gop are voted out of office

[BradInATX 9,208]

There are two new "We are the Storm" signs on the main drag of Gruene road that just popped up. Lulz.

Conversely my very Trumpy neighborhood has had a few Biden signs pop up in the last week or two so there's that. I actually hate seeing them of any persuasion, I liked it better when only my very close friends and family, as well as strangers on the internet, knew who I was voting for. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,342]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

 

Does a national poll have any historical correlation to electoral splits?  Is there any value to a national poll other than to popular vote?

also, would it be so damn difficult to provide margin of error so I have an idea how exhaustive these polls are?  

Edited October 16, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[tantric superman 4,667]

36 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

In other words, I'm a fucking idiot. 

Finally, I can give you some rep.

[gmr548 16,517]

This will be true until all the current gop are voted out of office

Dilly dilly. Pretty liberal tbh so I vote almost exclusively Democrat in national/statewide races anyway, but I'd always do good faith diligence down ballot. Judges, local office, etc. I'm done with that for the next decade or so, minimum. Made voting a lot easier this time around.

[Huckleberry 32,703]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Does a national poll have any historical correlation to electoral splits?  Is there any value to a national poll other than to popular vote?

A popular vote win of more than 6% is extremely hard to lose the EC with. 10-12% would be almost statistically impossible to lose the EC with because the States don't actually all vote truly independently. Issues affect people in every State.

Even more important is that I think all those polls have Biden at 52-54% of the vote. Meaning a much smaller share of undecided voters than this time 4 years ago.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,843]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Does a national poll have any historical correlation to electoral splits?  Is there any value to a national poll other than to popular vote?

Sure. Any data is useful in the right context. If nothing else it gives you an overall temperature. 

[Ghost of LL 15,492]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

 Sorry, but I'm voting for folks like Becky Bray for County Commissioner. Raul Vargas for Sheriff.  Jeff Rose for Court of Appeals (even though he's gonna step down shortly since he didn't get tapped for Supreme Court of TX), Lani Popp, and a few others for Texas Supreme Court.  By my pre-printed ballot, I am voting for Biden and 3 other Democrats, 3 Libertarians (my usual go-to, but I think we all know where's just not as many on the ballot this time around), against the 3 props on my ballot, couple of school board choices, and what everybody is waiting on pins and needles to hear about---Lobo endorses for Edwards Aquifer Conservation Precinct #4---Bob Larsen. 

I have to stay in the party's good graces.  So that it's made even more sweet when we rise up against Dan Patrick in 2022.  the amount of money that's been bundled already to remove him from public office in perpetuity and put him back where he belongs---sucking off glory hole customers at truck stops for new radio headphones...would boggle your mind.  I can't believe how many enemies he's made already.  

Anyway, back to Biden and Trump.  Go Biden.  

So let me just comment on this briefly:

You really should vote for Darlene Byrne over Jeff Rose for the COA Chief Justice position.  I know Jeff Rose.  He lives in the neighborhood.  And I actually don't mind him as a jurist (he has ruled both for and against me, but I never thought his rulings were really bad).  But the primary role of the "Chief" Justice is to move the docket.  And he's a terrible administrator.  When Woodie Jones was CJ, you could get opinions out in 5-8 months.  Now, it takes a year to get an opinion even in "accelerated" cases.  That's ridiculous.

Byrne has done a great job as a Travis County district judge in streamlining the family docket.  I don't do that kind of work, but there was a whole discussion on it at last year's Bench-Bar CLE, and it really is impressive.  The lawyers who do family law are really happy with it.  So just for the administrative experience/knowledge alone, you should vote for Byrne.

As to the SCOTX positions, I generally agree with @Brisketexan that the court needs balance, and that alone is reason to vote for the Democrats.  But I will tell you in particular that you should vote for Gisela Triana.  She was one of our best district court judges, and I think she is one of the better COA judges out there.  That would be a huge upgrade on the court.

[Reynolds Woodcock 4,669]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

6 minutes ago, texastough said:

This will be true until all the current gop are voted out of office

Dilly dilly. Pretty liberal tbh so I vote almost exclusively Democrat in national/statewide races anyway, but I'd always do good faith diligence down ballot. Judges, local office, etc. I'm done with that for the next decade or so, minimum. Made voting a lot easier this time around.

This is the right approach for the immediate future.  Any politician willingly associating themselves with this iteration of the Republican party is a feckless coward, regardless of whether they seem like a nice person to you.  Wake the fuck up.  

[Brisketexan 104,628]

Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Sure. Any data is useful in the right context. If nothing else it gives you an overall temperature. 

Yeah, but remember......on average, each American has one testicle.

States matter.  They're the only thing that matters.  And really, only 6-8 matter: WI, MI, OH, PA, FL, GA.  Maybe NC and AZ.

[Michael Knight 12,898]

 

[The Dog 43,807]

Just now, Michael Knight said:

 

oof. that's gonna leave a mark. He's going to be RAGING today - or at least calling this "fake news."

[Pato del Muerto 52,342]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

oof. that's gonna leave a mark. He's going to be RAGING today - or at least calling this "fake news."

You know how we were watching him for his train wreck?  That’s what he’s going to claim was happening to Biden. Every accusation a confession. 

Edited October 16, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[henrygandorf 29,177]

9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Does a national poll have any historical correlation to electoral splits?  Is there any value to a national poll other than to popular vote?

also, would it be so damn difficult to provide margin of error so I have an idea how exhaustive these polls are?  

the number you’re looking for is 4.5 (round up to 5 for safety). that’s the breaking point. anything higher is bad math or a statistical impossibility. 

double digits = not a chance. 

[Huckleberry 32,703]

In their shared hour, ABC and Biden had 12.71 million viewers for a 22% lead over NBC and Trump (meaning I guess they had an average of 8.13 million viewers or so).

So if it were a viewership poll Biden won it 61-39%.

 

edit - never mind, totally depends on what they meant by a 22% lead. Works out even better the other way. If they mean that Biden had 122% of the viewers of Trump then Trump had about 10.42 million on average. Guess what that works out to in a 100% total poll?

Biden 55%
Trump 45%

Really freaking close to the actual polls right now. So the unsurprising news is that it seems that most Americans just watched these to confirm their preconceptions.

Edited October 16, 2020 by Huckleberry

[TexasEd 8,064]

22 hours ago, kevwun said:

There is also a fuck your feelings flag and a Trump train flag.

Is a Trump train something that happened at the Epstein parties?

[gmr548 16,517]

Does a national poll have any historical correlation to electoral splits?  Is there any value to a national poll other than to popular vote?
also, would it be so damn difficult to provide margin of error so I have an idea how exhaustive these polls are?  

It measures the mood of the country. States don't vote in a vacuum. Historically would change over time due to changes in state populations, preferences of voting blocs, etc.

In the current political alignment of demographic groups - race, education, gender, etc. - the EC has a Republican lean of 3ish points. Meaning Trump would feel alright about his chances with anything up to a Biden +3 result. This is because of the high concentration of uneducated white voters, which are Trump's base, in Midwestern swing states. Gets dicey at Biden +4-5. Beyond that, it just becomes essentially impossible to overcome.

It also helps make educated guesses based on the political environment. For example, with the current national polls at roughly D +10, any state/district with a partisan lean of up to R +10 (aka ten points to the right of the nation) is reasonably in play. It's why states like GA, OH, and TX are on the front line.