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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29175

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33 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And they should be swinging bigly, because for the first time in this campaign, we're seeing movement. 

The nature of the movement is significant.  Trump is and has been stuck at 40-42%.  That's it.  No matter what happens, he stays at that level.  He never gets above 42%.  And you know that's right, because he's making base plays to get his base back together to get up to 46%.  But even with those base plays, he's still right at 41% in every goddamned poll.

The movement is entirely on Biden's side, where his support has bone from around 46% in February to over 50% now.  So this isn't a >10% race because of downward Trump movement that will revert to the mean as he recaptures voters who were previously supportive.  This is a >10% race entirely because previously undecided voters have become decided (almost unanimously) in Joe Biden's favor.

That is a lot more stable race.  And it's a lot worse for Trump.

exactly this is why the texas poll was interesting to me.  in usual times, if you said a race was really close, practically a dead heat, you'd guess, oh, what is it, 50-49?  but no, texas is 44-43.  because of course it is.  because trump will never stray that far from his 42, even in texas. 

so at 44-43 there are 13% of voters who are undecided/3rd party.  assuming a chunk of those eventually voters for trump/biden, has anything happened in the past days/weeks/months that has anyone in the gop confident that will yield big numbers for trump?  what would make someone answer the phone on june 1st and be part of that 13, and then pull the lever for trump in november? at this point, i would think a 50-50 split of the remaining would be seen as a win for trump.  that just shows where we are right now. 

33 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
39 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:
And they should be swinging bigly, because for the first time in this campaign, we're seeing movement. 
The nature of the movement is significant.  Trump is and has been stuck at 40-42%.  That's it.  No matter what happens, he stays at that level.  He never gets above 42%.  And you know that's right, because he's making base plays to get his base back together to get up to 46%.  But even with those base plays, he's still right at 41% in every goddamned poll.
The movement is entirely on Biden's side, where his support has bone from around 46% in February to over 50% now.  So this isn't a >10% race because of downward Trump movement that will revert to the mean as he recaptures voters who were previously supportive.  This is a >10% race entirely because previously undecided voters have become decided (almost unanimously) in Joe Biden's favor.
That is a lot more stable race.  And it's a lot worse for Trump.

Read more  

This. Trump's support is incredibly inelastic. You can confidently bet on his ceiling being the same 46 percent. I really don't see howbthat gets the job done at this point. This is trending toward 2008 level massacre.

some polls came out a couple months ago, that had certain states and even some national polls within 3-4 points (with a moe of ~3.5).  and i followed along on twitter to see comments and some side conversations.  being within the margin of error is always important, and you never know (but 2016!).  but when your numbers are this inelastic and consistent, there really isn't a margin of error, just a track record of solid polling.

he's done.

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Brandywine

Brandywine 1313

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A concern I have is if Bill Barr will try and mess with the election in Trump's favor. Do something like James Comey did with Hillary. Right before voting time to make Biden look bad or corrupt, or under investigation. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15491

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3 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

A concern I have is if Bill Barr will try and mess with the election in Trump's favor. Do something like James Comey did with Hillary. Right before voting time to make Biden look bad or corrupt, or under investigation. 

"Concern"?  I guarantee you he'll do exactly that.

The problem with Bill Barr, however, is that there's nobody out there who doesn't think he's a political hack.  Trumpublicans know he's a political hack, and they love him for it.

With Comey, it was different.  He was seen as a neutral.  He had legitimacy.  Barr is a hack with no legitimacy at all.

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smuggs

smuggs 9342

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3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Very risky.  We need the candidate alive, not dead of the fucking COVID.

A tear gas grenade fired point blank into his earhole will kill him a lot quicker than the COVID.

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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41 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

A concern I have is if Bill Barr will try and mess with the election in Trump's favor. Do something like James Comey did with Hillary. Right before voting time to make Biden look bad or corrupt, or under investigation. 

Bill Barr/DOJ is the Julian Assange/Wikileaks operation in this election.  They will selectively and strategically leak/declassify documents throughout the next five months to make the Biden/Obama administration appear nefarious.  

People overlook that Barr was CIA during the Cold War and this type of shit is his bread and butter. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16511

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but that's just white college voters.  white non college is still 4-1 R.
White non college is a smaller piece of the electoral pie here than it is in most red states. Texas is one of, if not the most highly educated red state.

I'm skeptical Biden is all the way to a draw with college educated whites here but if he is the state is a tossup based on turnout.

That +31 R number in '16 doesn't feel right either. The Republican margin was straight up cut in half from 2012. I know some of that was a larger democratic margin among Latino voters but you had a lot of educated whites jump over to Clinton then.

I'd be really surprised if that graphic proves accurate.
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mdmost

mdmost 42865

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It's beyond discouraging that it took a pandemic with 106,000 dying, 40 million unemployed, and then mass protests to get to the point where there's a realistic shot to not only beat him but destroy him. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16511

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I did look up the recent polls in TX just out of curiosity. I haven't paid much attention because I haven't really bought into the idea that Biden could win here.

The RCP average for the five post covid polls is Trump +2. Ranges from Biden +1 to Trump +6. Every one of them is within MOE, even if just barely. Trump does not exceed 50 percent in any of them, though he did hit 49 in one.

I'm not going to get my hopes up yet but that's close enough to be a turnout contest, which is not something I expected.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, Brandywine said:

A concern I have is if Bill Barr will try and mess with the election in Trump's favor. Do something like James Comey did with Hillary. Right before voting time to make Biden look bad or corrupt, or under investigation. 

Everyone with half a brain knows that Trump took Barr off the political scrap heap. That fat piece of shit will do all that he can to help trump. Barr’s ability to change minds should be almost 0 though. Barr works for trump. The guy has no speck of neutrality in his huge overweight body.

i highly doubt the comey situation and comey effect could be replicated. It was unprecedented in 2016. Comey himself even said he looked at the polls, saw she was up by 8-10, and felt safe to re-open the investigation. In hindsight, he was wrong and should’ve waited.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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33 minutes ago, mdmost said:

It's beyond discouraging that it took a pandemic with 106,000 dying, 40 million unemployed, and then mass protests to get to the point where there's a realistic shot to not only beat him but destroy him. 

Relax...... even if all those things didn’t happen., Trump would still be a 50-50 chance to win at best. I see no way that Trump flips any of the states Hilary won.

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thrillhammer

thrillhammer 683

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1 hour ago, mdmost said:

It's beyond discouraging that it took a pandemic with 106,000 dying, 40 million unemployed, and then mass protests to get to the point where there's a realistic shot to not only beat him but destroy him. 

i'm a pessimist I guess.  I'm barely holding on that theres a realistic shot to beat him.  I think everyone in America thought Hillary was going to win so didn't get out to vote.  we cant get complacent and think biden's got this.  we have to get out the vote.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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18 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

i'm a pessimist I guess.  I'm barely holding on that theres a realistic shot to beat him.  I think everyone in America thought Hillary was going to win so didn't get out to vote.  we cant get complacent and think biden's got this.  we have to get out the vote.

You’re not a pessimist.  There is still a very real chance Trump wins.  Even after all this shit, the delegate count is 232 Biden 205 Trump, with 6 states up for grabs: FL, PA, MI, NC, AZ, WI.  Most people think PA and MI will go to Biden and I agree but it’s no sure thing, and that only gets him to 268.  Biden has to win one of FL, NC, AZ, or WI.  
 

The last 2 weeks have been the first time I would have actually predicted Biden to win, but there is a TON of time left.  The most encouraging thing I’ve seen is that it looks like racism and conspiracy theories are all Trump has left, and that’s probably not enough to win all 4 of those states (sadly, it is enough to secure 200+ delegates).

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

You’re not a pessimist.  There is still a very real chance Trump wins.  Even after all this shit, the delegate count is 232 Biden 205 Trump, with 6 states up for grabs: FL, PA, MI, NC, AZ, WI.  Most people think PA and MI will go to Biden and I agree but it’s no sure thing, and that only gets him to 268.  Biden has to win one of FL, NC, AZ, or WI.  
 

The last 2 weeks have been the first time I would have actually predicted Biden to win, but there is a TON of time left.  The most encouraging thing I’ve seen is that it looks like racism and conspiracy theories are all Trump has left, and that’s probably not enough to win all 4 of those states (sadly, it is enough to secure 200+ delegates).

The coronavirus mishandling and the Floyd thing have definitely helped Biden in Florida, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

biden really is the favorite in Arizona now.

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The Dog

The Dog 43803

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1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

The coronavirus mishandling and the Floyd thing have definitely helped Biden in Florida, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

biden really is the favorite in Arizona now.

Agreed. I thought Trump had a good chance at re-election before the two happened. He's got a long road to recover from those. 

He'd delivered on his promises to the right and had a strong economy. Nice mix for being re-elected. 

Then COVID and George Floyd happened.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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30 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Agreed. I thought Trump had a good chance at re-election before the two happened. He's got a long road to recover from those. 

He'd delivered on his promises to the right and had a strong economy. Nice mix for being re-elected. 

Then COVID and George Floyd happened.

Which promises?  I guess the tax cut (not really for the masses) and judges, but what else? 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29175

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39 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Which promises?  I guess the tax cut (not really for the masses) and judges, but what else? 

it’s the promise about the promise. like being engaged to be engaged. he’s going to eventually build the wall, repeal/replace aca, overturn sanctuary cities, etc, yawn. 

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Foosters

Foosters 17732

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54 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Which promises?  I guess the tax cut (not really for the masses) and judges, but what else? 

Waging a war on minorities and immigrants and accelerating the destruction of the planet come to mind.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Agreed. I thought Trump had a good chance at re-election before the two happened. He's got a long road to recover from those. 

He'd delivered on his promises to the right and had a strong economy. Nice mix for being re-elected. 

Then COVID and George Floyd happened.

Trump was always going to have a tough re-election. Everyone saw how bad Hilary was and she still got 227 electoral votes. Any Democrat is basically starting with about 230 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Trump never governed to anyone except for his base. He never expanded his base. 
 

trump will have to get 2 “ lucky hands” in a row to get 8 years as the US president. He got one, but I think this second one is a much steeper climb now that people know who he is and what he’s about. The guy tries to politicize every thing and he wastes the US government’s time investigating all of these conspiracy theories that nobody in touch with reality actually believes. He had a chance to stop the coronavirus before it spread, but he shut down the country way too late.

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The Dog

The Dog 43803

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9 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Which promises?  I guess the tax cut (not really for the masses) and judges, but what else? 

Some touched on it (with their own partisan hyperbole) - rolling back environmental regulations, immigration restrictions, funding the border wall, etc. The far right isn't supporting him just because he's tweeting shit they agree with - he's given the right what they wanted. It's a big reason he didn't face a primary challenge. 

So you add a motivated base that is happy with him plus a strong economy and it makes his re-election chances look a lot better than they are now. So "good" might be overstating it a bit, but it was certainly a heck of a lot better than it is now. There was a pretty big "enthusiasm gap" between the Trump supporters and otherwise as well that I think would have played a role. I think that is gone. People in the middle appear to be pretty motivated to move on from Trump ASAP.

Just MHO. At this point it's all theory and the reality is that Trump's case for re-election is a LOT weaker right now than it was 6 months ago.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29175

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fwiw, cnn played trump's comment about george floyd, followed immediately by biden's reaction to it in his speech.  they also showed the chairs before trump's presser, then showed how the white house officials moved them closer together, so that trump could remark "well you guys are already sitting closer together, that's a good sign".

this wasn't live, obviously.  i wasn't awake yet when he went on.  they rarely show his live shit anymore.  but agreed, they should show biden when he actually has a planned speech/remarks.

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The Dog

The Dog 43803

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https://www.texasdemocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/TexasResults.pdf

Interesting new poll for Texas. The sample was R+3. 

(PPP is a Democratic pollster which is why I'm assuming the url is "texasdemocrats" - they link to it in their press release: https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/dems-doing-well-in-iowa-texas-michigan-north-carolina/)

The money quote:

-In a Texas survey done for the Texas Democratic Party, we found Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied in the state at 48. Only 46% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 50% who disapprove. A Quinnipiac University survey released this week showed the state a toss up as well.

One particularly notable finding in the Texas poll is that Biden leads 53-41 among voters under 45…and 51-46 among voters between 46 and 65 as well. The only thing keeping Trump in the game is a 59-38 lead with seniors. That huge generational split means Democrats are going to start winning important elections in Texas some day…and it could even be this year.

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3160

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Two new cut throat ads from never-trumper groups. I swear to God, I don't get why Dems can't produce vicious shit like this. Straight to the point - he's a coward and dumbass.

 

Edited by Bruh Man
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19151

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21 hours ago, thrillhammer said:

i'm a pessimist I guess.  I'm barely holding on that theres a realistic shot to beat him.  I think everyone in America thought Hillary was going to win so didn't get out to vote.  we cant get complacent and think biden's got this.  we have to get out the vote.

Totally different scenario this time around. I remember people I know around this time of year in 2016 saying they couldn’t believe Trump was going to be the next President and this was when Hillary had a pretty good lead. I don’t hear that from the same people today 

It took a 25 year smear campaign and countless investigations into Hillary for dotard to win. An eight month smear campaign won’t have the same effect.  

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14967

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Just when the Democratic Party has a huge chunk of moderate voters ready to vote against Trump and possibly even Republicans senators, stories come out about defunding the police departments and Kamela Harris/Bernie Sanders proposing up to $10k per month in payments to Americans. I haven’t read the details of these proposals. What am I missing? They sound like bad, radical ideas that definitely would scare away moderate voters.

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