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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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heso

heso 2748

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

That tweet makes no sense and appears to contradict itself. 

I read it as there was a coordinated campaign between trump and the RNC. And then once they got what they wanted from the RNC, they pulled their money to spend somewhere else. 

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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

Posted
Posted

Let's see if he can get even lower.

That brings us to the first presidential debate, last month. A debate is a chance to see both candidates relatively unfiltered. And given a rare chance to see the president at length, without filters or interruptions (except many of his own), many Americans looked at Trump and recoiled in horror.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/trump-unfiltered/616721/

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The Dog

The Dog 43808

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Here, I'll try to help

The Trump campaign cancelled all tv ads that had been bought in those three states for the period of 10/20 through 10/26.  They did this in spite of coordinating with the RNC previously on what commericals to run, etc.

It's kind of a big deal.

thanks - wish they'd worded the tweet that way it would make more sense. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

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Posted

The debate is going to be fun

https://nypost.com/2020/10/18/trump-rips-extraordinarily-unfair-moderator-kristen-welker/

Quote

“She’s always been terrible & unfair, just like most of the Fake News reporters, but I’ll still play the game,” the commander in chief tweeted Saturday after son Don Jr. shared The Post’s story.

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

Posted
Posted
Reporter (can't remember if it was CNN or MSNBC) stated earlier the Trump people believe they are going to flip Nevada based on their internals.  
It wouldn't totally shock me. We've gotten a few recent polls that have been reassuring, but a big reason Nevada has turned blue is organized labor in the hospitality industry. With that sector devastated by COVID it's possible you could see lower democratic turnout and Trump could eek it out.

Nevada is also a state considered unlikely to have an election night result this year. The could sue their way to victory.
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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Reporter (can't remember if it was CNN or MSNBC) stated earlier the Trump people believe they are going to flip Nevada based on their internals.  

i hate that I'm the opposite of boots on the ground.  i like to see data and supplement it with my own subjective impressions of what is going on around me.  but i can't here because no one that i speak to regularly would consider in a 1000 years of voting for trump, so i can't possibly get in the brainspace of anyone going from a hillary vote to a trump vote to get a feel whether it is possible.  i only have the data to rely on.  nothing subjective.

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The Dog

The Dog 43808

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12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Reporter (can't remember if it was CNN or MSNBC) stated earlier the Trump people believe they are going to flip Nevada based on their internals.  

Trump was actually leading the RCP average by 0.8% heading into election day in Nevada four years ago and lost by 2.4%. It was kind of the opposite of the midwest states that he won. 

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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Posted

538 has the odds, as of today, of Trump flipping a state Clinton won in 2016 at 26%. However, to put it into perspective how truly dire it is for Trump in the polls, flipping a former Clinton state has the highest odds for all of the positive election outcomes for Trump. Winning is at 12%, popular vote at 4%, winning more than 50% of the popular vote at 2%, and down and down the odds go. Therefore, Nevada can flip if it wants. It's the most likely positive thing to happen for him, anyway.

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heso

heso 2748

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Biden team should probably have a good answer nailed down before Friday on Covid shutdown. That’s about the only issue vulnerability that could both motivate potential trump voters and unmotivate Biden voters. 

I don’t understand why it’s such a hard question to answer. “Here’s the deal, I don’t want to shut anything down. We’ve got some activities that are reopening more successfully than others and we just need to look at the data on what can be opened safely and what activities create risk for other people. If something can be done safely, with a mask and not pose an increased risk to other people or employees of that establishment then there’s no problem there. But as we’ve seen, some people don’t want to take this threat seriously and it’s preventing a lot of things from moving forward. The president and his administration are a perfect example. They acted irresponsibly and he ended up in the hospital getting care that no one else in the country could get. Then he told you it was no big deal because he doesn’t care about you or your loved ones. I want us all to get back to living our lives like we all want to, but we have to do it in a way that doesn’t sicken and kill many thousands more than have died already.”

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
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16 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

538 has the odds, as of today, of Trump flipping a state Clinton won in 2016 at 26%. However, to put it into perspective how truly dire it is for Trump in the polls, flipping a former Clinton state has the highest odds for all of the positive election outcomes for Trump. Winning is at 12%, popular vote at 4%, winning more than 50% of the popular vote at 2%, and down and down the odds go. Therefore, Nevada can flip if it wants. It's the most likely positive thing to happen for him, anyway.

Nevada isn't going to flip

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18983

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i hate that I'm the opposite of boots on the ground.  i like to see data and supplement it with my own subjective impressions of what is going on around me.  but i can't here because no one that i speak to regularly would consider in a 1000 years of voting for trump, so i can't possibly get in the brainspace of anyone going from a hillary vote to a trump vote to get a feel whether it is possible.  i only have the data to rely on.  nothing subjective.

This isn't hard to figure out in Nevada man.  The Dems are the party of the shutdown (not arguing policy or right/wrong just the politics of it) and that's killed Nevada which is basically an entire state catering to hospitality.  That's gonna move some votes, potentially.

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, heso said:

I don’t understand why it’s such a hard question to answer. “Here’s the deal, I don’t want to shut anything down. We’ve got some activities that are reopening more successfully than others and we just need to look at the data on what can be opened safely and what activities create risk for other people. If something can be done safely, with a mask and not pose an increased risk to other people or employees of that establishment then there’s no problem there. But as we’ve seen, some people don’t want to take this threat seriously and it’s preventing a lot of things from moving forward. The president and his administration are a perfect example. They acted irresponsibly and he ended up in the hospital getting care that no one else in the country could get. Then he told you it was no big deal because he doesn’t care about you or your loved ones. I want us all to get back to living our lives like we all want to, but we have to do it in a way that doesn’t sicken and kill many thousands more than have died already.”

Hard not to read that entire passage in Biden's voice. And that's absolutely the answer he should give, except that there's no way Trump will let him get a single word out. 

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TexEx15

TexEx15 17487

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15 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Morning Consult just dropped a big batch of polls. 

Biden +9 (52-43) nationally, no change since last week.

Lot of state polls with large sample sizes, though a little outdated (10/2-11).

Slide3.png

love to see FL, MI, PA, WI looking good.  VOTE!

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18983

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Morning Consult just dropped a big batch of polls. 

Biden +9 (52-43) nationally, no change since last week.

Lot of state polls with large sample sizes, though a little outdated (10/2-11).

Slide3.png

Those state polls all make sense to me and I buy them lock stock and barrel. If the state polls are right the only quibble I have is I think that's a 7 point Biden win and not a 9 point Biden win, likely, at the national level, but that's splitting hairs. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5273

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6 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Trump team appears to agree with you.

 

 

Bill Stepien continues to morph into his client. It's kinda the only way to stay in Trump's good graces.  In any given situation, just respond as nearly as identical as the way Trump himself would. The people brought into his circle who try and mantain any dignity or values they once had are quickly shown the door.

Besides, if Trump shows up, we all know he's gonna answer every question, regardless of topic, by interrupting and yelling about Hunter Biden's laptop.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5273

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6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Those state polls all make sense to me and I buy them lock stock and barrel. If the state polls are right the only quibble I have is I think that's a 7 point Biden win and not a 9 point Biden win, likely, at the national level, but that's splitting hairs. 

Yeah, if MC is right, Biden wins PV by something like 7.5 (52.5-45-2.5) and Electoral College with at least 334 EV.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)

Screwed around with some more numbers on a con-call just now. Still trying to get my head around how Trump performed against polling in 2016 and what that would look like in 2020. Did a pretty basic workup here: 

 

 

Wanted to take it a step further because as has been discussed a bunch, there aren't nearly as many undecideds left in 2020. So, long story short I broke down how Hillary and Trump performed in the election with the remaining undecideds (per 2016 polling). Figured out what percentage of the undecideds each got. Then took those percentages and applied them to the undecideds in 2020 polling. 

So the question answered is "if undecideds break identically to 2016, what will each state look like?". Here's what I landed on:

election2.JPG.4f467894b4a86fed62b74fafa77f6897.JPG

 

A lot of you have been beating the drum of "there are far fewer undecideds", I think @henrygandorf being the loudest drummer in that regard. And it's definitely correct. The smaller group of undecideds give Trump less runway to outperform polls in most places. I threw TX and NV in since they've been discussed. Biden is going to destroy Trump in Nevada. Texas probably isn't in play unless there's a huge shy Biden contingent or we get truly historic turnout. But hey, we're better than Ohio. 

You can see that Trump did really well with undecideds in the Rust Belt, and he might do so again. But, there's just not enough undecideds left to make the ground up. Biden is solid in all three. 

The four states that stay red (TX, IA, GA, OH) all look pretty solid for Trump, barring a wave election.

 

That would give us this 333 to 205 map, which is coincidentally exactly what I posted in the prediction thread: https://www.270towin.com/maps/V1vEY 

Cliff's: Trump is pretty fucked barring something disastrous for Biden between now and election day.  On that map, he would have to contest and overturn the results of a minimum of four states. I don't think even a Republican Supreme Court or the general public is going to have the appetite for that.

 

Edited by BradInATX
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18983

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19 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Screwed around with some more numbers on a con-call just now. Still trying to get my head around how Trump performed against polling in 2016 and what that would look like in 2016. Did a pretty basic workup here: 

 

 

Wanted to take it a step further because as has been discussed a bunch, there aren't nearly as many undecideds left in 2020. So, long story short I broke down how Hillary and Trump performed in the election with the remaining undecideds (per 2016 polling). Figured out what percentage of the undecideds each got. Then took those percentages and applied them to the undecideds in 2020 polling. 

So the question answered is "if undecideds break identically to 2016, what will each state look like?". Here's what I landed on:

election2.JPG.4f467894b4a86fed62b74fafa77f6897.JPG

 

A lot of you have been beating the drum of "there are far fewer undecideds", I think @henrygandorf being the loudest drummer in that regard. And it's definitely correct. The smaller group of undecideds give Trump less runway to outperform polls in most places. I threw TX and NV in since they've been discussed. Biden is going to destroy Trump in Nevada. Texas probably isn't in play unless there's a huge shy Biden contingent or we get truly historic turnout. But hey, we're better than Ohio. 

You can see that Trump did really well with undecideds in the Rust Belt, and he might do so again. But, there's just not enough undecideds left to make the ground up. Biden is solid in all three. 

The four states that stay red (TX, IA, GA, OH) all look pretty solid for Trump, barring a wave election.

 

That would give us this 333 to 205 map, which is coincidentally exactly what I posted in the prediction thread: https://www.270towin.com/maps/V1vEY 

Cliff's: Trump is pretty fucked barring something disastrous for Biden between now and election day.  On that map, he would have to contest and overturn the results of a minimum of four states. I don't think even a Republican Supreme Court or the general public is going to have the appetite for that.

 

That's a pretty good non wave map- looks entirely plausible.  

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Maybe they think Ohio is safe. But is it?

Unlikely.  But, if Ohio is in play, then they have no chance overall.  They have to spend money on getting other must-haves down to 2-3% Biden margins, and then hope polling is undercounting Trump votes by 3%. 

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29179

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41 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

A lot of you have been beating the drum of "there are far fewer undecideds", I think @henrygandorf being the loudest drummer in that regard. And it's definitely correct. The smaller group of undecideds give Trump less runway to outperform polls in most places.

lots of good work here, brad.

the group of undecideds is a lot smaller for several obvious reasons, but the group is always smaller when an incumbent is involved, for other obvious reasons.  but i harp on that not just to imply "everyone knows who they're voting for so none of this shit matters", but to put some of the "rolling average" type polling numbers into perspective.

sometimes we'll see tweets like "Oct 2020 : biden avg +6.2 points  // Oct 2016 : hillary avg +5.6 points"  this looks similar.  this makes people say, "shit, we could be in for another shocker" or "oh noesss it's happening again all polllz are wrong!" 

i just like to remind people that there's a big difference between 51-45 and 44-38.  because that's the shit we were dealing with 4 years ago.  there actually were undecideds, and there actually were 3rd party candidates who took chunks of votes.  both those numbers are way way down this cycle.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54004

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rudy-giuliani-said-he-chose-to-release-his-hunter-biden-story-to-the-new-york-post-because-he-knew-other-outlets-would-scrutinize-it-too-much/ar-BB1abgt8?ocid=ob-fb-enus-280

President Donald Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani told The New York Times on Sunday that he gave the New York Post a copy of a hard drive said to belong to Hunter Biden because other news outlets would have scrutinized it too much.

Giuliani told The Times that he chose the Post because "either nobody else would take it, or if they took it, they would spend all the time they could to try to contradict it before they put it out."


Lulz.
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