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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Longhorn94

Longhorn94 2501

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Haven't given a sign update in a while. In my NW Houston (Aggie heavy and therefore Trump heavy) suburban neighborhood, at last count on a drive through most of the neighborhood there were 8 Trump signs and 4 Biden signs.

In 2016 my neighborhood seemed like one big giant Trump billboard. Even more than the merely 2 to 1 advantage for Trump what stands out is the total lack of enthusiasm for him. Only 8 signs in a neighborhood of basically 900 homes would seem to be a horrific sign for him.

first sign update from my hood out in Bee Cave. in what one would expect to be a heavy republican neighborhood with approx 200 homes, Trump 7, Biden 7, Tacos 1.

 

 

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ndawg

ndawg 1242

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Posted

We had one Trump / Pence 2020 sign right up in the grill of our cul de sac in Northwest Hills, but it retreated back towards their house a few months ago, after some particularly heinous event that has passed out of my memory. I don't think it's there at all anymore, since the first debate.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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10 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

first sign update from my hood out in Bee Cave. in what one would expect to be a heavy republican neighborhood with approx 200 homes, Trump 7, Biden 7, Tacos 1.

 

 

This is an encouraging sign. That area in far west Austin, while affluent and educated, should be heavily trumpkin. Lots and lots of white olds in the area. Along with rich white males and women, of all ages.  If it’s really 50/50 that bodes well. 

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Longhorn94

Longhorn94 2501

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Posted
1 minute ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

When I see a Trump 2020 yard sign in my neighborhood I automatically assume 1. white and 2. a bad person lives there.

Either a F you got mine type or a racist- maybe both.

 

exactly! its like waking up and finding out which neighbors are nazis. some fit and others have been a total surprise, including one with a special needs child.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47205

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Posted
1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

This is an encouraging sign. That area in far west Austin, while affluent and educated, should be heavily trumpkin. Lots and lots of white olds in the area. Along with rich white males and women, of all ages.  If it’s really 50/50 that bodes well. 

It's not the same as River Place, Steiner Ranch and the like but I did a drive-through of Jester and my neighborhood (NW Hills) and the total count was something like Biden 50 Trump 8.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's not the same as River Place, Steiner Ranch and the like but I did a drive-through of Jester and my neighborhood (NW Hills) and the total count was something like Biden 50 Trump 8.

I can see some in Jester but even though northwest hills is pretty much all white and well off I’d be surprised to see a trump sign there. I often drive on Stratford drive In central Austin to get under the MoPac bridge to go to the trail and it’s all Biden signs everywhere on some pretty wealthy houses. 

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TankedBevo

TankedBevo 2502

Posted
Posted (edited)

Lake Highlands Dallas area I've seen about a 5-1 ratio, probably higher, for Biden to Trump in my 'hood. Went the "back way" to San Antonio last weekend and almost every sign was Trump. He certainly has a bumpkin demographic (unsurprisingly) as most of those folks go "in town" to the Dollar General for groceries. 

Edited by TankedBevo
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6846

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7 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I can see some in Jester but even though northwest hills is pretty much all white and well off I’d be surprised to see a trump sign there. I often drive on Stratford drive In central Austin to get under the MoPac bridge to go to the trail and it’s all Biden signs everywhere on some pretty wealthy houses. 

I don't think I have seen a single Trump sign in my hood (Pemberton), and only one in Brykerwoods  area (like a weird handpainted sign), all the other signs have been for Biden.

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8266

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2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

You need to enjoy this a bit.  We're up 21-3 at the end of the first quarter against Colorado in the Big 12 Championship.  You're just torturing yourself to sit there and say, "it's a Big 12 Championship against Colorado--we could still lose this."

You can if Chris Simms gives up 3 interceptions and a fumble

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
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1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

I don't think I have seen a single Trump sign in my hood (Pemberton), and only one in Brykerwoods  area (like a weird handpainted sign), all the other signs have been for Biden.

Now that’s a Surly humblebrag! 

Should have said “Pemberton Heights” for maximum effect.  :) 

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heso

heso 2863

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

His district was redrawn since the 2016 election. In 2016 he ran unopposed. When it was redrawn for the 2018 election he won 51-47. Basically his district and the one to the east used to split the population of Erie into two very large, rural districts to create two republican locks (Trump won Erie country by 2%, the rest of those counties by 35%). Now he has all of Erie county.

 

Edited by heso
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6846

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9 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Now that’s a Surly humblebrag! 

Should have said “Pemberton Heights” for maximum effect.  :) 

I didn't want to come across as too pompous. You can tell the Trump voters though as they have the "I support the police" (or something like it) sign in their front yard and no other signs (beyond private school where kids go) signs of course.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

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Posted
2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Something is fucky. I click MI and get 93. 

About four years ago when my son was still in elementary school and didn't really know how to curse, he had a really bad day at Field Day.  It was hot, he couldn't figure out one particular game or something, and he was just getting pissed.  So my wife goes over to him to console him. 

He's that mix of angry/frustrated/sad/hot, and he's trying not to lose his shit in front of his friends.  So my wife takes him aside and says, "it's ok--just let it out.  If you need to say a bad word, that's ok."

He looks up at her and says, "Mom, this day is just fucky."

She tells him that that's really kind of the one part of speech that "fuck" really won't work as.  But damned if we don't now use it in this house with some regularity.

So after I saw this post, I had to grab the boy.  I told him, "You've made it--you created a word that's not being used on the Official IntertronsTM Google, LLC.  He's been grinning ear to ear ever since.

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21477

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8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

About four years ago when my son was still in elementary school and didn't really know how to curse, he had a really bad day at Field Day.  It was hot, he couldn't figure out one particular game or something, and he was just getting pissed.  So my wife goes over to him to console him. 

He's that mix of angry/frustrated/sad/hot, and he's trying not to lose his shit in front of his friends.  So my wife takes him aside and says, "it's ok--just let it out.  If you need to say a bad word, that's ok."

He looks up at her and says, "Mom, this day is just fucky."

She tells him that that's really kind of the one part of speech that "fuck" really won't work as.  But damned if we don't now use it in this house with some regularity.

So after I saw this post, I had to grab the boy.  I told him, "You've made it--you created a word that's not being used on the Official IntertronsTM Google, LLC.  He's been grinning ear to ear ever since.

Tell your wife she’s wrong.  Fuck is the most versatile word in the English language, as your son proved.

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18447

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I have a few neighbors who openly supported Trump in 2016 and are eerily silent now. They still hold their unpopular opinions, they just aren’t advertising them. So while pollsters may not see a Silent Trump Voter phenomenon, I believe it shows up in these informal neighborhood sign counts.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34657

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Just now, BrickHorn said:

I have a few neighbors who openly supported Trump in 2016 and are eerily silent now. They still hold their unpopular opinions, they just aren’t advertising them. So while pollsters may not see a Silent Trump Voter phenomenon, I believe it shows up in these informal neighborhood sign counts.

Reasoning seems sketchy. Those kinds of people aren't afraid to tell a pollster they don't know on the phone that they're voting for Trump. They just don't want their neighbors to bring it up to them.

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The Dog

The Dog 44861

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One thing about the NYT poll - Cohn says that they don't give additional weight to respondents who already voted. They give them the same weight as the "almost certain" group. Not sure I agree with that as their votes have been cast and there's always a chance someone who is "almost certain" to vote won't make it out to vote for one reason or another.

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3520

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2 hours ago, The Dog said:

It's because Cornyn has access to GOP internal polling that Nate and G. Elliott do not. They may hear about internal polls second hand through media sources but he gets to see the raw data.

...and Cornyn's data shows himself up less than 3 and Trump up less than1.  Don't ask, don't shoot the messenger. 

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18447

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2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Reasoning seems sketchy. Those kinds of people aren't afraid to tell a pollster they don't know on the phone that they're voting for Trump. They just don't want their neighbors to bring it up to them.

That’s exactly my point. They aren’t shy to pollsters, so the polls aren’t tainted by a shy voter effect. But they ARE shy about yard signs when in a clear minority. Meaning these informal neighborhood sign tallies suffer from a shy voter effect.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

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4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

One thing about the NYT poll - Cohn says that they don't give additional weight to respondents who already voted. They give them the same weight as the "almost certain" group. Not sure I agree with that as their votes have been cast and there's always a chance someone who is "almost certain" to vote won't make it out to vote for one reason or another.

I'm good with that.  There are reasons that people who answer that they've already voted actually haven't.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47205

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1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

That’s exactly my point. They aren’t shy to pollsters, so the polls aren’t tainted by a shy voter effect. But they ARE shy about yard signs when in a clear minority. Meaning these informal neighborhood sign tallies suffer from a shy voter effect.

I'm definitely not suffering from some kind of delusion that NW Austin is going 85/15 for Biden.  It's just an interesting phenomenon regarding who is willing to put a sign out.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34657

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

That’s exactly my point. They aren’t shy to pollsters, so the polls aren’t tainted by a shy voter effect. But they ARE shy about yard signs when in a clear minority. Meaning these informal neighborhood sign tallies suffer from a shy voter effect.

Well then I agree with you, which obviously means you're correct.

The only thing I'd add is that this version of shy voters leaves open the possibility that they won't actually show up to the polls. It's not a huge possibility, but it's there. And we're seeing it as Montgomery County is lagging behind other urban/suburban counties in early turnout. In both 2016 and 2018 Montgomery County ranked 6th out of the 15 most populous counties in early in-person voting turnout. As of right now it's 10th.

In 2014 (pre-Trump), it ranked 8th. The numbers are confirming that Trump enthusiasm is down, not just in yard signs but at the ballot box so far. We'll see if Election Day turnout saves it.

Edited by Huckleberry
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Tuco

Tuco 5093

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20 minutes ago, ndawg said:

We had one Trump / Pence 2020 sign right up in the grill of our cul de sac in Northwest Hills, but it retreated back towards their house a few months ago, after some particularly heinous event that has passed out of my memory. I don't think it's there at all anymore, since the first debate.

I live in midtown Omaha.  White and wealthy neighborhood; tending to be old money and Catholic.  

On my block, there was one Trump sign from an older couple.  I'm assuming they have another house(s), and don't actually live there that much.  They haven''t had the sign out for a few weeks, but I haven't seen them for a few weeks.  Probably around 15 Biden signs.  

In the 3 mile radius, I would say Biden signs outnumber Trump signs 5-1, maybe more.  Almost all of the Trump signs are in yards that also have Sasse (Senate) and Bacon (House) signs.  There are many yards that have a Bacon or Sasse sign, but no Trump sign. I think part of that is that Trump's NE-2 ground game is run through the Neb GOP rather than an independent office.  But Biden has even less of a direct presence, and there are plenty of solo Biden signs. 

And speaking of the sign war, I have to say that the variety of Biden signs are awesome.  Some of them are through the campaigns, but a lot of them are just getting commissioned independently.  We've got "Riding with Biden," "BYE DON 2020", "HARRIS 2020, and I guess Joe too.", "Teachers for Joe" that has an apple on it, "Vote Compassion, not Fear" - that one was from a bunch of Methodists I think, a bunch with sunglasses, "DECENCY 2020".  And then there are the directly anti-Trump signs like "STD - Stop the Donald; Don't let the infection spread," "And One Day, Like a Miracle, He'll be Gone."  I think the variety is great marketing.  But the non-official ones also show the enthusiasm from Biden supporters to go out and seek signs online, rather than just signing up to have one dropped off. 

 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 26240

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5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I live in midtown Omaha.  White and wealthy neighborhood; tending to be old money and Catholic.  

On my block, there was one Trump sign from an older couple.  I'm assuming they have another house(s), and don't actually live there that much.  They haven''t had the sign out for a few weeks, but I haven't seen them for a few weeks.  Probably around 15 Biden signs.  

In the 3 mile radius, I would say Biden signs outnumber Trump signs 5-1, maybe more.  Almost all of the Trump signs are in yards that also have Sasse (Senate) and Bacon (House) signs.  There are many yards that have a Bacon or Sasse sign, but no Trump sign. I think part of that is that Trump's NE-2 ground game is run through the Neb GOP rather than an independent office.  But Biden has even less of a direct presence, and there are plenty of solo Biden signs. 

And speaking of the sign war, I have to say that the variety of Biden signs are awesome.  Some of them are through the campaigns, but a lot of them are just getting commissioned independently.  We've got "Riding with Biden," "BYE DON 2020", "HARRIS 2020, and I guess Joe too.", "Teachers for Joe" that has an apple on it, "Vote Compassion, not Fear" - that one was from a bunch of Methodists I think, a bunch with sunglasses, "DECENCY 2020".  And then there are the directly anti-Trump signs like "STD - Stop the Donald; Don't let the infection spread," "And One Day, Like a Miracle, He'll be Gone."  I think the variety is great marketing.  But the non-official ones also show the enthusiasm from Biden supporters to go out and seek signs online, rather than just signing up to have one dropped off. 

 

I would put a "Bacon" sign right next to the "Taco" sign that I wish I had.

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